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Can Augsburg’s home grit break their scoring drought against a Union Berlin side built for chaos? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Augsburg has three straight home clean sheets but has failed to score in three consecutive games. Union Berlin plays a low-possession, defensive style that limits open-play chances.
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Union's aerial strength and set-piece efficiency should eventually break an Augsburg side that is prone to individual errors and currently goalless.
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Augsburg vs Union Berlin Predictions and Best Bets
Augsburg vs Union Berlin — bet365 Market Snapshot
Informational market snapshot showing implied probabilities from listed bet365 odds.
Current pricing indicates a very closely contested match with almost identical implied chances for the home and away win.
Low-scoring margins and the 1-1 draw dominate the statistical probabilities based on the current market.
- Home wall, blunt attack: Augsburg have kept three straight clean sheets at WWK Arena, but they’ve failed to score in three consecutive matches — something has to give.
- Two teams who don’t want the ball: Union average 39% possession (37.2% in the league) and Augsburg sit at 47%, so expect territory swings, not a slow passing contest.
- Set-piece muscle vs error-prone defending: Union have very strong attacking set pieces and win 22 aerials per game, while Augsburg are very weak at avoiding individual errors and concede 1.83 goals per game.
Tactical Control: Average Possession
Both sides operate without prioritising ball dominance, preferring direct play or structural stability.
Home matches see them tidier on the ball, though they remain vulnerable to individual errors.
A team built for chaos and transitions, focusing on physical duels over passing volume.
Physical Strength: Aerials Won per Game
The contrast in aerial dominance highlights Union’s reliance on set-pieces and high balls.
Significantly lower aerial output makes them susceptible to Union’s crossing game.
A core pillar of their game, winning duels to sustain pressure in the final third.
This one has edge, urgency and real jeopardy. Augsburg sit 15th with 14 points, just two points above the relegation play-off place, and Thursday night at the WWK Arena feels like a fixture that can’t be wasted. Manuel Baum’s side need a response after being ripped apart 4-0 by Borussia Mönchengladbach — and the timing hurts, because their confidence in front of goal has vanished.
Union Berlin, ninth on 22 points, arrive with a different kind of pressure: their season still has upside, and they’ve got enough power and structure to turn this into a grim evening for the hosts. Kick-off is 19:30. Augsburg must turn home clean sheets into points — and quickly.
Team News & Lineups
Team News
- Augsburg absences:
- K. Jakić (ill)
- Y. Keitel (hamstring injury)
- J. Gouweleeuw (inner ligament injury)
- M. Wolf (ill)
- Union Berlin absences:
- None listed.
Probable Lineups
Augsburg: Dahmen; Banks, Schlotterbeck, Zesiger; Fellhauer, Jakic, Massengo, Giannoulis; Rieder, Essende, Claude-Maurice
Union Berlin: Ronnow; Doekhi, Querfeld, Leite; Trimmel, Khedira, Kemlein, Kohn; Burcu, Ansah, Jeong
Implication: If Kristijan Jakić can’t go, Augsburg lose a key midfield presence and leadership in the engine room, which matters against Union’s direct, physical game. Union’s XI looks set up to win duels, hit early balls, and turn set pieces into a weapon — exactly the kind of night Augsburg can’t afford.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Augsburg | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 9th |
| Points | 14 | 22 |
| Goals scored (league) | 17 (16 apps) | 22 (16 apps) |
| Shots per game | 12.94 | 13.68 |
| Possession | 47% (45.7% season avg) | 39% (37.2% season avg) |
| Pass accuracy | 80% | 72% |
| Aerials won (season avg) | 15.4 | 22 |
| Clean sheets (all leagues shown) | 4 | 5 |
This has the feel of a match decided in spells, not a flowing 90. Augsburg are tidier on the ball, but Union are far stronger in the air and built for stoppages and pressure moments. The big question: can Augsburg’s home defending hold up without giving Union “free” chances?
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Augsburg’s plan: survive the storm, then make one moment count
Augsburg’s problem isn’t mystery — it’s bluntness. They’ve failed to score in three straight matches, and that comes straight after a run where they conceded three or more for the third time in seven games. The 4-0 at Gladbach exposed the worst of them: a team that can unravel when the first punch lands.
But at home, it’s a different story lately. They’ve won two and drawn one of their last three at WWK Arena, with three consecutive clean sheets. That’s the blueprint: stay organised, keep the box clean, and let the match breathe. Expect Augsburg to try and build through the wing-back lanes — their style leans towards attacking down the left and long shots, with Dimitrios Giannoulis offering end product (2 goals, 2 assists) and Fabian Rieder carrying the creative load (3 goals, 2 assists).
The risk? Augsburg are weak at keeping possession and very weak at avoiding individual errors. That’s a nasty mix when you’re trying to protect a fragile lead — or chase a goal without panicking.
Union’s plan: win the duel game, then squeeze the life out of it
Steffen Baumgart’s Union don’t need the ball. Their numbers scream it: 39% possession, 72% pass accuracy, and a clear preference for long balls and crosses. The danger comes from the structure and the muscle: very strong attacking set pieces, strong aerials, and centre-backs who contribute at both ends.
Keep your eyes on Danilho Doekhi — 4 goals from centre-back, 4.9 aerials won per game, and a 7.12 rating. Union can create pressure without pretty football, and Augsburg’s recent habit of conceding big chances makes that a real worry. Up front, Ilyas Ansah brings the bite (5 goals, 1 assist), while Andrej Ilic is the supply line (6 assists) when Union hit the final third quickly.
Where it tilts
If Augsburg score first, the crowd drags them over the line. If Union get set pieces and second balls, Augsburg’s error-prone moments start flashing red.
Key Moments to Watch
- First contact football: Union want aerial duels and loose balls; Augsburg must win enough of them to stop the match becoming a siege.
- Set-piece pressure: Union’s strength here meets Augsburg’s vulnerability to mistakes — corners and wide free-kicks could shape the entire night.
- Wide deliveries: Union play with width and cross often; Augsburg’s wing-backs have to defend their own box, not just sprint forward.
- Shot selection: Augsburg take long shots — if they get frustrated, they’ll start shooting early and losing the ball in bad areas.
What could go wrong? Augsburg’s last outing ended 4-0, and another early setback could trigger the same spiral — especially with the team already goalless in three. Union, though, can also leave space if their aggression turns into sloppy fouls in dangerous areas, which is a known weakness for them.
Best Bet for Augsburg vs Union Berlin
Can Augsburg’s home defensive streak survive Union Berlin’s physical aerial assault?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Goal Form | AUG 0 goals in 3; UNB 22 goals/season | Under 2.5 Goals |
| Set Pieces | UNB 22 aerials won; AUG weak on errors | UNB to Score First |
| Efficiency | UNB 39% possession; AUG 47% | Draw or Away Win |
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Under 2.5 Total Goals
Augsburg enters this fixture in a bizarre statistical deadlock. While they have successfully kept three consecutive clean sheets at the WWK Arena, they have simultaneously failed to score a single goal in their last three matches across all competitions. This lack of clinical finishing is reflected in their league tally of just 17 goals from 16 games. When a side is unable to find the net but remains disciplined at home, the match naturally trends toward a low-scoring, cagey affair.
Union Berlin is the perfect partner for a low-scoring outcome. They are a team designed for chaos and disruption rather than fluid offensive play, as evidenced by their league-low 37.2% average possession. They do not look to control the tempo through passing; instead, they rely on winning 22 aerial duels per game and capitalizing on set-piece opportunities. With both teams ranking low in possession and high in defensive organization or aerial battles, the ball will spend a significant amount of time in the air or contested in midfield rather than in the back of the net.
Tactically, Augsburg must prioritize defensive stability after their recent 4-0 thrashing by Mönchengladbach. Manuel Baum’s side will likely lean into their home blueprint: stay organized, keep the box clean, and avoid the individual errors that have seen them concede 1.83 goals per game on average this season. Because Union Berlin is content to sit back and strike on the counter or via corners, a high-scoring shootout is highly improbable.
What could go wrong? The primary risk lies in Augsburg’s fragility and propensity for individual errors. If a defensive mistake allows Union Berlin to score an early goal from a set piece, Augsburg may be forced to abandon their defensive shape to chase the game, potentially opening the floodgates for a higher-scoring second half.
Correct Score Lean
Augsburg 0-1 Union Berlin
This scoreline reflects the tactical reality of the match. Augsburg has proven they can hold firm at home, but their current three-game scoring drought suggests they will struggle to break down a structured Union Berlin defense. Union Berlin’s superiority in the air—led by Danilho Doekhi’s 4.9 aerials won per game—provides them with a distinct advantage on set pieces. In a game of limited chances and low possession, a single headed goal from a corner or a wide free-kick is the most likely separator between these two sides.
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