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Can Augsburg turn their WWK Arena grit into a season-shifting blow against Freiburg’s European chase? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Both teams have conceded 33+ goals this season and are statistically prone to individual errors. Their last meeting saw four goals, and both teams average over 12 shots per game.
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Freiburg are the more efficient side with better passing and control. While Augsburg’s home pressure should yield a goal, their weakness against counters favors a narrow Freiburg win.
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Augsburg vs Freiburg Predictions and Best Bets
Augsburg vs Freiburg — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample William Hill odds based on our match analysis.
Freiburg hold the technical advantage, but Augsburg’s home grit at the WWK Arena keeps the 1X2 market competitive.
Both teams have struggled for clean sheets, suggesting high implied probabilities for goals at both ends.
- Table Pressure Cooker: Augsburg sit 15th on 15 points with a -15 goal difference, while Freiburg are 8th on 23 with -2 — this fixture screams urgency for both ends.
- Shot Volume, Different Intent: Freiburg fire 12.9 shots per game in the Bundesliga, Augsburg take 12.5, but Augsburg’s big issue is finishing chances, not finding moments to shoot.
- Clean Sheet Gap: Augsburg have just 4 clean sheets across their matches, while Freiburg have 9 — a swing factor when games get tight and one mistake decides the mood.
Offensive Intent: Shots per Game
Both sides maintain high shot volumes, suggesting an active match with frequent pressure on both goalkeepers.
Despite finishing struggles, Augsburg consistently create opportunities to test the opposition.
Freiburg’s slightly higher shot count is paired with better overall control in possession.
Defensive Reliability: Clean Sheets
A look at how often these defenses have managed to shut out opponents across their season matches.
Augsburg’s struggle to avoid errors has limited their ability to maintain shutouts.
Freiburg’s defensive structure has proven significantly more resilient so far this season.
This one has edge written all over it. Augsburg, staring over their shoulder in 15th, welcome Freiburg to the WWK Arena with the kind of urgency that makes a fixture feel louder than the table suggests. Manuel Baum needs points and he needs them now — not pretty points, not “nearly” points, real ones.
Freiburg arrive as the higher-ranked side in eighth, but the tension is real after a 2-0 loss to RB Leipzig on January 14. The message is simple: keep the European push moving, or risk getting dragged back into the pack.
There’s also a clear piece of unfinished business for the visitors. Augsburg already beat Freiburg 3-1 in August, racing into a 3-0 half-time lead. Freiburg don’t get to forget that on Sunday.
Kick-off is 16:30.
Team News & Lineups
Injuries / absences
- Augsburg: Y. Keitel (hamstring injury), J. Gouweleeuw (inner ligament injury), M. Wolf (ill), K. Jakić (ill).
- Freiburg: No injuries or suspensions listed.
Augsburg possible starting lineup
- Dahmen; Banks, Schlotterbeck, Zesiger; Fellhauer, Jakic, Massengo, Giannoulis; Kade, Claude-Maurice; Gregoritsch
Freiburg possible starting lineup
- Atubolu; Kubler, Ginter, Jung, Makengo; Eggestein, Osterhage; Beste, Manzambi, Grifo; Matanovic
What it means
- Augsburg’s biggest headache is in the fine details: they’re very weak at avoiding individual errors and struggle defending counter-attacks — brutal traits against a Freiburg side that can hurt you from set plays and broken phases.
- Freiburg have quality and control through Maximilian Eggestein and Patrick Osterhage, with Vincenzo Grifo supplying the blade. But Freiburg’s own “what if?” sits right there too: they’re very weak at avoiding individual errors and weak defending set pieces.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Augsburg | Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 8th |
| Points | 15 | 23 |
| Bundesliga goals | 18 | 27 |
| Goals conceded (overall matches block) | 34 | 33 |
| Shots per game (Bundesliga) | 12.5 | 12.9 |
| Possession | 45.8% | 50.4% |
| Pass accuracy | 79.8% | 82.2% |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 9 |
| Yellow cards | 52 | 44 |
The numbers set the tone: Freiburg should see more of the ball and circulate it cleaner, while Augsburg live in the scrap — fewer passes, more duels, more urgency. The twist is shot volume: Augsburg shoot plenty, but the problem is turning effort into something that hurts.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Augsburg: aggressive, direct, and ready to make it ugly
Augsburg don’t pretend to be possession kings. Their game leans on intensity: they’re aggressive, they take long shots, and they take a lot of shots. That approach can work at home because it drags the match into a messy rhythm — second balls, ricochets, and moments where structure breaks.
But there’s a danger in the way Augsburg defend. They’re weak against counters, weak against long shots, and very weak avoiding individual errors. That’s the cocktail that turns a solid half into a sudden collapse. If Augsburg commit too many bodies forward, Freiburg will fancy nicking the ball and launching forward through the middle.
There’s also the offside-trap risk. Augsburg play it, but they’re weak at avoiding offside themselves — which can kill promising moves and hand Freiburg cheap resets.
Freiburg: cleaner possession, bigger set-piece threat
Freiburg’s profile is sharper and more flexible. They attack through the middle, attempt crosses, and they’ve got real weapons from dead balls: attacking set pieces is a strength, and so is shooting from direct free kicks. That suits Grifo perfectly — a player who doesn’t need ten chances to change a match.
In open play, Freiburg’s control points to longer spells in Augsburg territory. Their 50.4% possession and 82.2% pass accuracy suggest a side comfortable building phases rather than forcing everything early.
The catch is the fragility. Freiburg are weak protecting a lead and very weak avoiding individual errors. If Augsburg start fast — like they did in August — Freiburg can’t afford a wobbly 15 minutes. The WWK Arena won’t forgive it.
Where the mismatch lives
This game could swing on who handles pressure without blinking. Augsburg’s intensity invites chaos. Freiburg’s quality can exploit it — especially via set pieces and quick central breaks. But if Freiburg start sloppy, Augsburg’s shot-heavy approach can turn one messy rebound into a momentum shift.
Key Moments to Watch
- The opening punch: Augsburg led Freiburg 3-0 at half-time in August. Freiburg’s first job is to keep the early minutes calm and controlled.
- Set pieces as a storyline: Freiburg are strong attacking set pieces, while both sides carry issues defending them — one dead ball could reshape the whole pattern.
- Discipline and game state: Augsburg’s aggression comes with cost. With 52 yellow cards, they can end up defending under pressure with players on tightropes.
- Grifo zones: Freiburg’s strength from direct free kicks makes every foul in shooting range feel like a warning siren.
What could go wrong?
Augsburg can overheat. Their weaknesses against counters and individual errors mean one rushed pass or one mistimed step can gift Freiburg the clean chance they crave. Freiburg can wobble too: if they concede first, protecting a lead is already a known problem — and this becomes a nervy, emotional away day where the pitch feels smaller with every tackle.
Best Bet for Augsburg vs Freiburg
Can Augsburg Replicate Their August Ambush?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Scoring | AUG 18 goals; FRE 27 goals | Over 1.5 Goals |
| Defense | AUG 34 conceded; FRE 33 conceded | Both Teams to Score |
| Efficiency | AUG 4 clean sheets; FRE 9 clean sheets | Draw No Bet Freiburg |
| History | AUG won 3-1 in previous meeting | Back Augsburg +1.0 |
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Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
This matchup features two defensive units that are consistently vulnerable to individual errors and structural collapses. Augsburg enter this fixture sitting 15th in the table with a goal difference of -15, having conceded 34 times already this season. While they struggle to keep the ball out of their own net, their tactical approach at the WWK Arena is aggressive and shot-heavy. They average 12.5 shots per game, a volume that ensures they stay dangerous despite their finishing struggles.
Freiburg arrive with a superior league standing but similar defensive frailties. They have conceded 33 goals across their matches, nearly matching Augsburg’s poor defensive record. Freiburg are particularly weak at protecting leads and defending set pieces, which plays directly into Augsburg’s direct and physical style. However, Freiburg possess the offensive clinical edge that Augsburg lacks. With 27 goals scored this campaign and a strength in direct free kicks and crosses, the visitors have the tools to exploit an Augsburg defense that is very weak against counter-attacks.
The previous meeting between these two earlier this season ended in a 3-1 victory for Augsburg, proving that both sides can find gaps in the other’s backline. Freiburg have only failed to score in two of their recent matches, while Augsburg’s desperation for points in a relegation scrap forces them to commit bodies forward. Given that both teams are prone to mistakes and both have demonstrated a consistent ability to create chances, the most logical outcome is both sides finding the net.
What could go wrong? Augsburg’s lack of clinical finishing is a significant hurdle; they often create high shot volume without converting. If Freiburg manage to tighten their set-piece defense and Augsburg fail to capitalize on their early aggression, the match could stagnate into a low-scoring affair, especially if the visitors prioritize a conservative away point.
Correct Score Lean
Augsburg 1-2 Freiburg
Freiburg possess the higher technical floor and superior passing accuracy (82.2% vs 79.8%). While Augsburg will likely force the issue at home and grab a goal through their high shot volume or a set-piece scramble, Freiburg’s ability to attack through the middle and exploit counter-attacking opportunities should see them edge the contest. Augsburg’s tendency to commit individual errors under pressure often proves fatal against top-half sides like Freiburg who have clinical threats like Vincenzo Grifo.
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