bet365
BetMGM
William Hill
Betfred
BetUK
LiveScoreBet
10Bet
Virgin Bet
Can Augsburg’s home resilience overcome Köln’s scoring streak in this Friday night showdown? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Augsburg’s aggressive shot volume at home meets a Köln side that has scored in eight consecutive matches. With both defences showing vulnerability to transitions and the last six head-to-head meetings seeing goals at both ends, neither side looks likely to keep a clean sheet in this clash.
Read Rationale ▾
Augsburg are unbeaten in seven at the WWK Arena and face a Köln side that struggles to finish chances despite creating volume. Given Köln’s weakness defending set-pieces and Augsburg’s high shot count, the hosts should edge a tight contest where both teams contribute to the scoreline.
Readers’ Tip
Vote your pick — quick & anonymous
Terms & Conditions (tap to view)
Friday night at the WWK Arena has the feel of a measuring stick. Augsburg’s season has flipped on its head under Manuel Baum, turning relegation nerves into a proper mid-table stride.
Augsburg vs FC Köln — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample William Hill odds based on our match analysis.
Augsburg’s seven-match unbeaten streak at the WWK Arena makes them the market choice against a Köln side with defensive travel concerns.
Köln have seen over 2.5 goals land in three straight away games, while Augsburg’s high shot volume creates constant box activity.
Historical trends show both teams scoring in the last six meetings, suggesting a 2-1 or 1-1 outcome is statistically plausible.
Augsburg’s high-volume shooting approach leads to frequent tests for keepers, particularly with Rieder and Claude-Maurice’s involvement.
Match Preview: Augsburg vs FC Köln
For FC Köln, the mood is different: points are still precious, and the urgency is loud. They’ve been leaky on their travels, but they keep finding the net — which is why this matchup looks built for momentum swings rather than a cagey chess match. With kick-off at 19:30 and a chilly 7° on the forecast, expect a sharp, physical contest: Augsburg pushing, Köln ready to bite back the moment space opens up.
Attacking Volume: Shots per League Match
Both teams maintain a high offensive output, suggesting a match with frequent goalmouth action at the WWK Arena.
Augsburg’s direct style under Manuel Baum focuses on generating volume and testing keepers from range.
Köln marginally outshoot the hosts on average, but their issue remains finishing those created chances.
Physical Battle: Aerial Duels Won
The physical contest in the air will be crucial for second-ball control and set-piece outcomes.
The home side trails in the air, which may leave them vulnerable to Köln’s crossing and long-ball approach.
Köln’s aerial dominance is a key strength that could pin the hosts back during sustained periods of pressure.
Key Match Facts
- Augsburg haven’t lost any of their last 7 Bundesliga home matches, and they arrive off 4 wins in their last 6 in all competitions.
- Köln have scored in 8 straight Bundesliga games, and over 2.5 goals has landed in each of their last 3 away matches in all competitions.
- The last 6 meetings between these sides have all seen both teams score, while Augsburg have won only 1 of the last 8 clashes in all competitions.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Augsburg absences
- Elvis Rexhbeçaj (special leave)
- Yannik Keitel (hamstring injury)
- Marius Wolf (ill)
- Uchenna Ogundu (unknown injury)
FC Köln absences
No injuries or suspensions listed.
Probable Augsburg XI (3-4-2-1)
Finn Dahmen; Robin Fellhauer, Cédric Zesiger, Keven Schlotterbeck, Noahkai Banks; Dimitrios Giannoulis, Kristijan Jakic, Han-Noah Massengo; Fabian Rieder, Alexis Claude-Maurice; Michael Gregoritsch
Probable FC Köln XI (3-4-3)
Marvin Schwäbe; Jan Thielmann, Alessio Castro-Montes, Cenk Özkacar; Eric Martel, Sebastian Sebulonsen, Tom Krauß, Denis Huseinbasic; Marius Bülter, Luca Waldschmidt, Saïd El Mala
Selection Impact
Augsburg missing Wolf strips away one experienced wide option, and without Rexhbeçaj and Keitel, the midfield rotation looks thinner if the game turns into a sprint. Köln’s front trio has enough variety to stress a back three — but their own weak spot is clear: defending wide attacks and set pieces can turn ugly fast if concentration drops.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric (Bundesliga) | Augsburg | FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| League position (pts) | 10th (28) | 12th (24) |
| Goals scored | 28 | 33 |
| Shots per game | 12.8 | 13.0 |
| Possession | 45.9% | 46.8% |
| Pass accuracy | 79.8% | 80.5% |
| Aerials won | 15.8 | 19.2 |
| Team rating | 6.51 | 6.58 |
Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Augsburg: Simplify, strike, and keep shooting
Under Manuel Baum, Augsburg’s identity looks clean and direct. They’re a side that take a lot of shots and aren’t shy about long-range efforts. That matters against a Köln team with a glaring issue defending set pieces — because shots lead to corners, second balls, and chaos in the penalty area.
But Augsburg’s own weakness list reads like a warning label for exactly the kind of opponent Köln want to be. They can be vulnerable keeping possession, they struggle defending counter attacks, and they’re prone to issues defending against long shots and individual errors. In other words: if Augsburg push too many bodies up, they can leave space behind the wing-backs and alongside the outside centre-halves.
Köln: Counter first, questions later
Köln’s strengths lean into speed and directness: counter attacks, creating chances, individual skill, and the ability to come back from losing positions. They also like working down the left, using crosses, through balls, and long balls to get the front three moving before the defence can set.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set-piece stress test: Köln are very weak defending set pieces. If Augsburg rack up corners and free-kicks, that’s a pressure point that can decide the night.
- Transition alarms: Augsburg are weak defending counter attacks, and Köln are strong at countering. One loose pass in midfield, one overhit press, and Köln are running at a stretched back line.
- Wide-lane warfare: Köln are weak defending attacks down the wings, while Augsburg’s shape can naturally funnel play into wide areas.
- Discipline and disruption: Augsburg have 66 yellows and 296 fouls across their matches, compared to Köln’s 40 yellows and 211 fouls.
What could go wrong?
Augsburg can make the WWK Arena feel like a trap for visitors — but if their shot-heavy approach turns into rushed, low-quality attempts, Köln will happily soak it up and break. And with this fixture regularly producing goals at both ends, a single moment — a set-piece lapse, a misjudged offside trap, a sloppy turnover — can flip the whole story in seconds.
📊 Market Explainer
Both Teams To Score (BTTS)
This market requires both the home and away sides to score at least one goal each during the 90 minutes. It does not matter what the final result is, provided neither side finishes with a zero on the scoreboard.
Pros: Keeps the bet alive until the final whistle. Cons: A single 1-0 defensive masterclass ruins the selection.
Correct Score
A high-risk, high-reward market where you must predict the exact final scoreline of the match. It offers significantly higher odds than result markets because of the difficulty in pinpointing the precise outcome.
Pros: Large potential returns. Cons: Extremely high volatility and zero margin for error.
🎯 Analysis: Both Teams To Score – Yes
The statistical profile of this fixture points strongly towards goals at both ends. FC Köln arrive at the WWK Arena having found the net in eight consecutive Bundesliga matches, demonstrating a consistent ability to breach top-flight defences. This offensive regularity is complemented by their recent away form, where over 2.5 goals have landed in their last three outings, indicating open and high-event contests on their travels.
⚔️ Tactical Indicators
- Köln have scored in 8 straight Bundesliga games.
- Augsburg average 12.8 shots per game and are shot-heavy at home.
- The last 6 head-to-head meetings have all seen both teams score.
Augsburg’s home identity under Manuel Baum is built on aggression and shooting volume. Averaging nearly 13 shots per match, they look to sustain pressure and test the opposition keeper frequently. Given that Köln are notoriously weak at defending wide attacks and set-pieces, Augsburg are well-placed to continue their scoring record at home. However, Augsburg’s own vulnerabilities against counter-attacks and individual errors suggest that Köln’s speed in transition will yield chances of their own.
Risk Factor: A highly fractious game with the 296 fouls Augsburg have committed this season could lead to a disjointed tempo that stifles scoring rhythm.
🎯 Analysis: Augsburg 2-1 FC Köln
While goals are expected for both, Augsburg’s formidable home record gives them the edge to secure all three points. Unbeaten in seven Bundesliga matches at the WWK Arena, the hosts have turned their stadium into a fortress. Köln, despite their scoring streak, often struggle to convert their total volume of chances into wins, as evidenced by their league position trailing behind the hosts.
Tactically, this scoreline accounts for Köln’s aerial dominance (19.2 duels won per match) and their counter-attacking threat, which should see them find the net. However, Köln’s specific weakness in defending set-pieces aligns perfectly with Augsburg’s shot-heavy approach that frequently generates corners and dead-ball situations. A 2-1 victory reflects Augsburg’s superior home efficiency and Köln’s recurring defensive lapses when under sustained pressure.
Risk Factor: Augsburg’s thinner midfield rotation due to absences could see them tire late in the game, allowing Köln to snatch a late equaliser.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Averaging 12.8 shots per game. High pressure that forces defensive errors and set-piece opportunities.
Identified as very weak defending set pieces, a primary route for Augsburg’s offensive threat.
❓ Questions & Answers
⊕What does “Both Teams to Score” mean?
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) is a bet where you win if both teams score at least one goal each.
It is a popular choice for games between high-scoring teams with defensive weaknesses, as the match result does not matter.
⊕Why is Augsburg favoured at home?
Augsburg are currently on a seven-match unbeaten streak in home Bundesliga games.
Their resilience at the WWK Arena, combined with a high volume of shots, makes them difficult to beat in front of their own fans.
⊕Is FC Köln likely to score in this match?
FC Köln have scored in eight consecutive Bundesliga matches leading up to this fixture.
Despite their league position, they have been consistent in finding the net both at home and away recently.
⊕What is a “Correct Score” bet?
A Correct Score bet requires you to predict the exact final scoreline of the football match.
This market offers higher odds because it is much harder to predict the exact outcome compared to just the winner.
⊕How do set-pieces affect this game?
Köln have shown a significant weakness in defending set-pieces this season.
Augsburg generate many corners through their high shot volume, making this a likely route for the hosts to score.
⊕What are the risks of betting on BTTS?
The main risk is a low-scoring or one-sided match where one team fails to score.
Even if one team dominates and scores multiple goals, if the other side is shut out, the bet is lost.
⊕Do Augsburg have any significant injuries?
Augsburg are missing wide man Marius Wolf and midfielders Elvis Rexhbeçaj and Yannik Keitel.
These absences may thin their midfield options and impact their ability to rotate during a high-intensity game.
⊕What is the aerial duel stat for this match?
FC Köln win an average of 19.2 aerial duels per match compared to Augsburg’s 15.8.
Köln’s aerial dominance could be a factor in defending their own box or attacking through crosses.
18+ | GambleAware | T&Cs apply
Please gamble responsibly. Set a budget, use deposit limits, and stop when it’s no longer fun.
Last Odds Update: Feb 26, 12:40 GMT | Editorial Policy
