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Will Zambia’s late resilience outlast Comoros’ second-half doubts in Group A? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Zambia vs Comoros Predictions and Best Bets
Zambia vs Comoros — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample William Hill odds based on our match analysis.
Zambia’s technical quality and tournament experience give them the advantage, with the draw also a significant factor in this defensive matchup.
Low-scoring outcomes dominate the pricing, with Zambia’s 1-0 win or a 1-1 draw considered the most probable results.
- Late drama and slow spark: Zambia’s first shot against Mali arrived in the 73rd minute, yet Patson Daka still scored a 92nd-minute equaliser to secure a point.
- A tale of two halves for Comoros: they reached half-time at 0-0 against Morocco, then conceded two goals in nine minutes in the second half and couldn’t recover.
- Recent head-to-head edge: Comoros have won the last two meetings 1-0 (02/07/2024) and 1-0 (06/06/2025), and the most recent three clashes include a 1-1 draw (09/09/2023).
Attacking Volume: Average Shots per Match
Both teams maintain similar shot volumes per game, though Comoros has shown slightly higher historical accuracy in their attempts.
Zambia recorded 205 total shots over 25 games, relying on high-value chances for strikers like Patson Daka.
Comoros averaged slightly more attempts and higher accuracy with 220 total shots across 26 matches.
Technical Control: Passing and Possession
Zambia typically dictates a higher volume of play, completing significantly more passes per game than their opponents.
With 5,631 total passes, Zambia shows a greater comfort in sustained possession compared to Comoros.
Comoros operates on lower passing volumes, suggesting a more direct or reactive style of play.
One point on the board, one game gone, and suddenly the margins feel thinner. Zambia arrive at their second Africa Cup of Nations outing having already had a proper tournament moment: a late rescue act against Mali to snatch a draw when the game was threatening to drift away from them. Comoros, meanwhile, are chasing their first points after a tough opener against Morocco that stayed tidy for a half and then unravelled quickly after the break.
It’s Group A, and the table has an early shape: Morocco top on three, Mali and Zambia sat on one apiece, Comoros on zero. That doesn’t decide anything on its own, but it does sharpen the focus. A win here changes the mood of a group stage. A defeat can leave you doing hard maths later.
The setting is Stade Mohamed V, with 16° listed alongside the fixture details. Zambia have already shown they can suffer without snapping. Comoros have already shown they can hang in… and how quickly it can go the other way. Put those together and you get a game that feels like it could be played on a knife-edge: patience against urgency, control against disruption, and the constant sense that one passage — one error, one set piece, one moment of quality — might do the heavy lifting.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Zambia’s opener against Mali gives a strong clue to the spine they may lean on again. Willard Mwanza played the full match in goal. In front of him, Mathews Banda and Dominic Chanda both completed 90 minutes, while Lubambo Musonda also went the distance. Benson Sakala completed 90 minutes too, and Patson Daka did the same, scoring Zambia’s equaliser late on. Fashion Sakala was used for 78 minutes, with Miguel Chaiwa and Lameck Banda both on for 67, suggesting Zambia already have a couple of defined substitution patterns in mind. David Simukonda, Joseph Sabobo and Kennedy Musonda were all introduced from the bench.
Comoros’ minutes point towards a similar core. Yannick Pandor played 90 minutes in goal. Faïz Selemani and Rafiki Saïd also completed the match, while Youssouf M’Changama was withdrawn after 82. Kenan Toibibou played 79, Zaydou Youssouf 79, and a cluster of substitutes followed: Kassim M’Dahoma for 11 minutes, Yacine Bourhane for 11, Myziane Maolida for eight, plus minutes for Akim Abdallah and Saïd Bakari.
There’s also a disciplinary/availability note attached to Zambia: B. Sakala is listed with a red card suspension. Another Zambia name, L. Musonda, is listed as “called up to national team” with a date of 19.01.2026. Taken at face value, that introduces uncertainty around selection balance in midfield and defence, particularly because Zambia’s matchday minutes also show Benson Sakala and Lubambo Musonda featuring prominently in the opener. What is clear is Zambia have already relied on Daka’s edge in front of goal, and Comoros have already relied on Pandor’s shot-stopping to keep the first half against Morocco goalless.
How the Match Could Be Played
Zambia’s draw with Mali reads like the kind of match that shapes a team’s next approach. They were outplayed for long stretches and didn’t register their first shot until the 73rd minute, yet still found a route to a point through defensive resistance and a late strike. That combination can pull you in two directions: either you try to fix the lack of attacking impact immediately, or you double down on the resilience and keep the game close for as long as possible.
Given what happened against Morocco, Comoros may well recognise the value of staying in the contest first and asking questions later. They absorbed pressure under terrible weather conditions and reached half-time at 0-0, which suggests a willingness to defend compactly and accept long spells without the ball. But the second half was decisive for the wrong reasons: two goals conceded in nine minutes, and the match escaped them. That kind of collapse often isn’t about a single mistake; it’s about a wobble that becomes a wave.
So the early rhythm feels predictable, even if the game itself isn’t. Zambia may take heart from the way their defending kept Mali from extending a lead, and aim to keep Comoros at arm’s length before looking for clearer moments to release Daka. Comoros may try to recreate their first-half stability from the Morocco match — keep distances tight, frustrate, and then build belief as the minutes tick by.
Where it gets interesting is in how both sides handle the middle period. If Zambia are cautious, Comoros can start to think about stepping higher in short bursts — not a full-on press, but targeted moments that force hurried clearances and second balls. If Comoros sit too deep for too long, Zambia can play the patience game and search for the opening without taking reckless risks. And if either side starts chasing the match emotionally, the transitions become louder: the kind of scrappy, sudden moments where a single run, a loose touch, or a corner swings the feel of the night.
Daka’s presence alone changes Zambia’s threat profile. Even in a match where Zambia struggled to land punches for 70 minutes-plus, they still had a forward who could settle one moment late and turn it into something decisive. Comoros, for their part, created two clear-cut chances against Morocco despite spending large parts absorbing pressure. That’s a reminder they don’t need a dozen attacks to be dangerous — they need one or two that land cleanly.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
The headline from Zambia’s opener is stark: their first shot arrived in the 73rd minute. That measures attacking output in its simplest form — attempts at goal — and it suggests Zambia’s priority was survival and structure before adventure. It matters here because if Zambia start similarly, Comoros will feel the game stays within touching distance, and that alone can change their composure.
Across a broader sample, Zambia have 205 total shots across 25 played games, an average of 8.2 per match, with 33% on target and 56% off target. Comoros sit at 220 shots across 26 games, averaging 8.46, with 37% on target and 57% off target. Those shot volumes are similar, but the profile hints at slightly sharper accuracy from Comoros. In a tight game, that can be the difference between “nice spell” and “actual save required”.
Possession and passing also sketch the likely feel. Zambia’s listed ball possession is 49% with 82% pass accuracy from 5,631 total passes (225.24 per game). Comoros are listed at 45% possession with 79% pass accuracy from 4,009 total passes (154.19 per game). That suggests Zambia are more comfortable circulating the ball for longer phases, while Comoros may play with fewer passes and potentially a more direct rhythm. If Comoros are defending for long stretches, their ability to keep the ball when they do win it becomes crucial — otherwise the game turns into repeat waves.
Then there’s the scoreboard reality. In their group opener, Comoros conceded twice in nine minutes in the second half. That measures concentration and game management under pressure. It matters because Zambia’s equaliser against Mali came in the 92nd minute — proof they can sustain belief late — and late-game focus could be a theme again.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first big “moment” might be psychological rather than tactical: what happens if the match is still level deep into the second half? Zambia have already lived a late twist, scoring in the 92nd minute to draw with Mali. Comoros have already lived a second-half swing the other way, conceding two in nine minutes after the break against Morocco. If the scoreboard stays stubborn, both teams will be carrying those memories into every decision.
Keep an eye on how Comoros handle the period immediately after half-time. Their opener was defined by a stable first half and a damaging second-half spell. If they can get through the first 10–15 minutes of the second half without giving the match away, the whole emotional temperature changes. Zambia, meanwhile, may look to increase their attacking intent earlier than they did against Mali — because leaving your first shot until the 73rd minute is playing with fire, even if you got away with it once.
The second “moment” is about chance quality, not quantity. Comoros managed two clear-cut chances against Morocco. That matters because it shows they can carve out genuine openings even in a match where they’re not expected to have long spells of dominance. Zambia’s defensive showing against Mali was described as strong enough to prevent a second goal; this is a different kind of test, where the danger may come from fewer, cleaner moments rather than constant pressure.
The third “moment” is the individual edge in the box. Patson Daka already has a tournament goal here, and he scored it late. If Zambia can keep the game close and then deliver one or two proper situations into the area, they have someone who has already shown he can turn a single chance into a decisive action.
What could go wrong with this read? Plenty. A group-stage match can flip on one lapse, one deflection, or one rapid spell that doesn’t reflect the previous hour. Comoros’ second-half wobble against Morocco is a warning sign — but it also means they could arrive determined to over-correct, which sometimes opens different spaces. Zambia’s late rescue against Mali is uplifting — but it can also tempt a side into thinking the comeback will always be there. It won’t.
Best Bet for Zambia vs Comoros
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Zambia to win
Zambia enters this second Group A fixture following a gritty 1-1 draw against Mali, a result secured by a 92nd-minute equaliser from Patson Daka. While the performance was defined by defensive resilience—they did not register a shot until the 73rd minute—it demonstrated a critical ability to stay in matches and strike when it counts. This late-game composure is a significant psychological advantage over a Comoros side that unraveled in the second half of their opener against Morocco. Comoros held the hosts to a 0-0 draw at half-time but conceded twice in a nine-minute span after the break, eventually losing 2-0.
The statistical profile favors Zambia’s ability to control the tempo. They maintained 49% possession in their opener with an 82% pass accuracy from 5,631 total passes (averaging 225 per game). In contrast, Comoros averaged only 154 passes per game with a lower accuracy of 79%. This suggests Zambia is better equipped to sustain pressure and dictate play. Furthermore, Zambia possesses a high-caliber clinical finisher in Patson Daka, who converted one of the few clear chances created against Mali. While Comoros managed two clear-cut chances against Morocco, their inability to convert and their subsequent defensive lapses under pressure point to a lack of clinical edge and concentration.
Zambia’s history of performing in high-stakes qualification matches against Comoros—advancing ahead of them in both 2012 and 2023—supports the view that they find ways to win when the tournament format demands it. Despite recent COSAFA Cup losses to this opponent, the inclusion of senior stars like Daka and Fashion Sakala shifts the balance. Zambia’s capacity to remain patient and strike late, combined with Comoros’ proven vulnerability in the second half, makes a Zambia victory the most logical outcome in a game where both teams are desperate for points to avoid elimination.
What could go wrong
Zambia’s tendency to start slowly is a major risk; failing to record a shot until the 73rd minute against Mali suggests they struggle to create early openings. If Comoros can repeat their first-half defensive solidity from the Morocco match and grab an early goal on the break, Zambia may lack the creative variety to break down a low block, especially with the suspension of Benson Sakala.
Correct score lean: 1-0 Zambia
Zambia’s attacking output is relatively low, averaging 8.2 shots per match with only 33% on target, while Comoros has shown they can defend stoutly for long periods, as seen in their scoreless first half against Morocco. However, Comoros failed to score in their opener and have struggled for offensive consistency at this level. Zambia has kept the scoreline tight in their recent outings, and with Patson Daka’s proven ability to find the net even in limited-chance games, a single goal is likely to decide this contest. A 1-0 win reflects Zambia’s statistical superiority in possession and Comoros’ offensive drought.
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