bet365
BetMGM
William Hill
Betfred
BetUK
LiveScoreBet
10Bet
Virgin Bet
Can Uganda’s two-forward set-up disrupt Tanzania’s midfield control in Rabat? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
To use the Live Streaming service you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Geo location and live streaming rules apply.
Works worldwide • Email + on-site access • Instant unlock
▾
Both teams proved they could score against high-level opposition in their openers, but their defenses combined to concede five goals. Tanzania's seven-match streak without a clean sheet and Uganda’s move to a two-man front line suggest a game where neither side will remain untroubled at the back.
▾
Given the high stakes and the historical familiarity between these neighbors, a stalemate where both find the net is a strong possibility. Both sides are currently averaging one goal scored per match in the tournament and lack the defensive solidity to secure a win without conceding.
Readers’ Tip
Vote your pick — quick & anonymous
Terms & Conditions (tap to view)
Uganda vs Tanzania Predictions and Best Bets
Uganda vs Tanzania — bet365 Market Snapshot
Market probabilities implied from listed odds at the time of publication.
Illustrative probabilities derived from the 1X2 market, showing a marginal lead for Uganda in this regional clash.
Both sides scored in their openers; pricing reflects the likelihood of a repeat in this must-win fixture.
- Uganda’s aerial edge could shape the “scrap” moments: Uganda have eight aerials won in the tournament so far, compared with Tanzania’s two, hinting at who might enjoy a more direct battle.
- Shot volume is there, but defensive control is the question: Uganda average nine shots per game and Tanzania 11, yet Uganda have conceded three and Tanzania two in their opening Africa Cup of Nations match.
- Different passing profiles, different ways to control the tempo: Uganda have 51.2% possession with 81.2% pass completion, while Tanzania have 48.0% possession with 84.8% pass completion, suggesting contrasting control styles.
Physical Edge: Aerial Duels Won
Aerial presence can be decisive in tight tournament fixtures where set-pieces often provide the breakthrough.
Uganda’s physical profile allowed them to dominate the air significantly more than their upcoming rivals.
Tanzania struggled in high-ball situations, indicating a preference for keeping the ball on the turf.
Attacking Intent: Shots Frequency
Volume of shots indicates which side is more willing to test the keeper and press into the final third.
The Cranes maintain a steady output, consistently finding shooting opportunities despite varied possession.
Tanzania registered high shot volumes, suggesting an attacking philosophy focused on high engagement.
Two sides who started on the wrong foot at the Africa Cup of Nations now meet with the sort of edge you can almost hear in the tunnel. Uganda and Tanzania, both beaten in their opening matches, go head-to-head on Saturday at Stade El Barid in Rabat knowing another slip could bring an early goodbye to Africa’s most prestigious tournament.
That reality tends to do funny things to a game plan. It can sharpen it into something ruthless and clear-eyed, or it can twist it into something cautious and sticky, where nobody wants to be the one who makes the mistake that gets replayed on every highlight reel back home. For Uganda and Tanzania, it’s also a match-up between two sides who, in their first outing, found the net once but gave plenty away at the other end.
This feels like one of those evenings where the first ten minutes will tell you a lot. Not everything, but a lot. If the early presses bite and the second balls are snapped up, we could get a quick, chaotic contest. If both teams drop off and play with the handbrake half-on, it might become a game of patience and nerve, with moments rather than waves deciding it.
Either way, it’s hard to escape the sense that the “how” will matter as much as the “who”. Shapes, spacing, and who holds their nerve in the middle third. That’s where this one is likely to live.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Uganda’s possible starting lineup reads: Magoola; Sibbick, Torach, Obita, Kayondo; Ssemugabi, Semakula, Aucho, Mato; Lorenzen, Mukwala. The way it’s listed points towards a back four, a midfield four, and then a pairing ahead — the kind of set-up that can be compact and combative, with clear jobs for each line. There’s a natural balance in that: protection for the centre-backs, wide support, and two forward reference points to play into when the pressure comes.
Tanzania’s possible starting lineup is: Foba; Kapombe, Mwamnyeto, Hamad, Hussein; Mirishi, Msanga; Msuva, M’Mbobwa, Allarkhia; Uganda. The structure here suggests a back four, a double pivot, three across the attacking line, and a central forward. Even without overcomplicating it, that’s a shape designed to give you numbers in midfield while still leaving room for three creators to find pockets behind Uganda’s midfield line.
On paper, then, it’s a classic contrast: Uganda’s more “flat” midfield line looking to stay connected and disciplined, against Tanzania’s two deeper midfielders plus a band of three who can move across the pitch and try to create mismatches.
In goal, Salim Magoola for Uganda and Zuberi Foba for Tanzania are the obvious anchors. Uganda’s back line looks likely to include Toby Sibbick and Rogers Torach centrally, with Jordan Obita and Aziz Kayondo as the full-backs. Tanzania’s defensive unit appears set around Shomari Kapombe, Bakari Mwamnyeto, Ibrahim Hamad and Mohamed Hussein.
Midfield could decide this. Uganda’s likely trio/four of Jude Ssemugabi, Kenneth Semakula, Khalid Aucho and Rogers Mato hints at energy and work-rate across the line, with Melvyn Lorenzen and Steven Mukwala ahead as the main outlets. For Tanzania, the combination of Novatus Miroshi and Alphonce Msanga deeper, with Simon Msuva and Tarryn Allarakhia among the advanced players, suggests a plan to keep the ball moving and arrive into the final third with support.
How the Match Could Be Played
Uganda’s listed shape is the sort that can compress space and make the centre of the pitch feel crowded. If Ssemugabi and Mato track diligently on the outside, and Aucho holds his position well, Uganda can funnel play into predictable lanes — either into areas where they can compete physically, or into wide zones where the full-back and wide midfielder can double up.
The flip side is that a flat midfield four can be tempted into becoming too flat. If Tanzania’s three advanced midfielders can rotate, one drops into a pocket and another runs beyond, Uganda’s midfield line may face the constant question: step out and leave a gap, or hold shape and allow a receiver to turn?
That’s where Tanzania’s “three behind the striker” look becomes intriguing. If Msuva and Allarakhia can find half-spaces, Uganda’s full-backs could be pulled narrow, which then opens the outside lane for overlaps. Or Tanzania may simply look to drag Uganda’s wide men back and pin them, limiting Uganda’s ability to break.
In possession, Uganda’s clearest route might be direct and fast: get the ball into Lorenzen or Mukwala early, then bring others into play around them. A two-forward set-up can be a blessing when you’re under pressure, because you’ve got two targets to hit and two players to occupy centre-backs. If Lorenzen can link and Mukwala can threaten in behind, Uganda can make Tanzania defend facing their own goal — never a comfortable way to spend an evening.
Tanzania’s build-up, by contrast, looks suited to using the double pivot to recycle play and shift Uganda’s midfield laterally. With two deeper midfielders, you can bounce passes and wait for a moment when Uganda’s line becomes stretched. The key will be speed of circulation: move it slowly and Uganda’s block can settle; move it quickly and you can force a late step, an awkward angle, a foul, or a loose clearance.
Transitions could be the real storyline. With both sides having conceded multiple goals in their opening matches, the emotional instinct may be to protect first. But a match like this can also become stretched if one team starts chasing. Uganda’s potential for quick, vertical attacks up to Lorenzen and Mukwala is clear; Tanzania’s potential to counter with runners from the band of three is equally obvious. If either side loses their distances between the lines, the game can flip in a heartbeat.
Set pieces are always a background threat in tournament football, and aerial presence matters when the match tightens. Uganda’s numbers show more aerial success than Tanzania’s in their opening match, which hints at where Uganda might fancy those scrappy, decisive moments — winning first contact, keeping the ball alive, and turning a half-chance into a proper one.
William Hill
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
BetMGM
Bet £10 Get £40 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
bet365
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Betfred
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
10bet
100% Up To £50 On First Deposit
Show Terms & Conditions
The Numbers That Support the Story
Uganda’s opening Africa Cup of Nations match produced one goal scored and three conceded, with an average of nine shots per game. That shot volume suggests they’re capable of getting into shooting positions, but the three conceded underlines how costly their defensive moments were — and in a match that could be decided by one mistake, that matters.
They also posted 51.2% possession and 81.2% passing accuracy in the tournament so far. In plain terms, that points to a side comfortable having the ball for spells and completing passes at a decent clip — not simply sitting in and hoping. If Uganda can marry that ball security to more control of the spaces around their back four, it becomes easier to see a steadier performance.
Tanzania’s opening match shows a similar attacking baseline but a slightly different flavour: one goal scored and two conceded, with 11 shots per game. That hints at a team willing to pull the trigger and get bodies into the final third, but still vulnerable enough that one poor sequence can undo good work.
Perhaps the most eye-catching contrast is in the passing and aerial numbers. Tanzania recorded 84.8% passing accuracy with 48.0% possession, which suggests they can be efficient with the ball even without dominating it. But they managed only two aerials won, compared to Uganda’s eight. If the game becomes more direct, more physical, or more second-ball heavy, Uganda may feel that suits them. If Tanzania can keep it on the deck and make the game a passing contest between the boxes, their cleaner pass completion could become a weapon.
Individual tournament ratings also hint at key figures. Denis Omedi has a tournament rating of 7.26 for Uganda and has scored one goal. For Tanzania, Zuberi Foba’s 7.76 rating stands out, alongside Charles M’Mombwa’s goal and a 6.88 rating. In tight games, those individual contributions — a finish at one end, a save at the other — often become the entire story.
Key “Moments” to Watch
One moment to watch is the first time Tanzania manage to receive between Uganda’s midfield and defence. If Uganda’s line stays connected, those pockets will be cramped and frustrating. If the spacing slips, Tanzania’s advanced midfielders could start turning, running at the back four, and forcing emergency defending.
Another is how Uganda choose to release their two forwards. If Lorenzen drops to connect and Mukwala stays higher, Tanzania’s centre-backs face a decision: follow and leave space, or hold and allow a free receiver. Those little choices add up. They’re the quiet mechanics of a match that can suddenly become very loud.
Keep an eye on aerial contests, particularly from wide deliveries and dead balls. Uganda’s eight aerials won in the tournament so far suggests they can compete well in the air, while Tanzania’s two indicates they may prefer to avoid that type of fight. If the match becomes stop-start and cross-heavy, Uganda may sense an opportunity to turn territory into chances.
Then there’s the goalkeeper factor. Foba’s standout rating hints at influence, and in a match where both sides have already conceded multiple times in the competition, a big save can change not just the scoreline, but the mood.
What could go wrong with this read? Plenty. An early goal can smash careful plans to bits, forcing one side to open up and the other to defend deeper than intended. A single error in build-up, a deflection, or a moment of over-commitment in transition can flip control instantly. Tournament football has a habit of making the margins feel even thinner than they already are.
Best Bet for Uganda vs Tanzania
Works worldwide • Email + on-site access • Instant unlock
Both Teams to Score – Yes
This East African derby arrives at a moment of extreme necessity for both nations, a scenario that historically forces teams to abandon overly cautious structures in search of the points required for tournament survival. Both Uganda and Tanzania found the back of the net in their opening matches despite suffering defeats, proving that they possess the offensive tools to break down defenses at this level. Uganda’s late strike against Tunisia ended a significant goal drought, while Tanzania managed to breach a formidable Nigerian backline, showing a clinical edge in high-pressure moments.
Defensive vulnerability is the shared trait that makes a clean sheet for either side look unlikely. Uganda conceded three goals in their first outing, struggling to maintain discipline when play became stretched. Similarly, Tanzania allowed two goals against Nigeria and have now failed to keep a clean sheet in seven consecutive matches across all competitions. This pattern of defensive lapses suggests that neither backline is currently stable enough to withstand ninety minutes of pressure from a motivated regional rival.
The tactical setup further supports an open game. Uganda employs a two-forward system featuring Melvyn Lorenzen and Steven Mukwala, designed to offer constant outlets and occupy the central defenders. This direct approach often results in high shot volumes, as seen in their average of nine shots per game. Tanzania countered with a more fluid attacking trio behind a lone striker, recording 11 shots in their opening fixture. With both teams averaging roughly 10 shots per game and showing a willingness to commit bodies forward during transitions, the probability of both finding the target is high. Given that a draw serves neither side particularly well in the hunt for a Round of 16 spot, the final thirty minutes are likely to see an increase in risk-taking and vertical play.
What could go wrong
The most significant risk to this selection is a “handbrake” approach where the fear of elimination leads to a sterile midfield battle. If both managers prioritize a defensive block and focus solely on avoiding a second defeat, the game could become a cagey affair with very few entries into the penalty area. Additionally, if the high humidity or physical fatigue from the opening round slows the tempo, the clinical finishing required to convert half-chances may be absent.
Correct score lean
1-1 Draw
Rationale
A 1-1 scoreline is the most logical conclusion for two teams that appear remarkably evenly matched in their current struggles. Both sides managed to score exactly one goal in their opening matches while displaying significant defensive frailties that make a 0-0 unlikely. Historically, their recent head-to-head encounters have been tight, often decided by a single goal, and their current tournament statistics show similar shot volumes and possession levels. With the pressure of potential elimination weighing heavily, a goal for one side is likely to trigger an immediate, desperate response from the other, leading to a shared result that keeps both marginally alive in the group.
Selected Bookmakers Offers
| |
New cust. Deposit £10+ in 7 days & bet on sports. Min odds apply. Reward = 4 x £10 Free Bets (2 x £10 Bet Builders & 2 x £10 Sports bet). Valid 7 days. Free bets not valid on e-sports & non UK/IE horse racing. 18+. T&Cs apply. | |
| |
Open Account Offer - New Customers only. Bet £10 and get £30 in Free Bets when you join bet365. Sign up, deposit between £5 and £10 to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value settle. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs , time limits & exclusions apply. Registration Required. #Ad. 18+ Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
18+. Play Safe. From 00:01 on 18.10.2022. £30 bonus. New customers only. Minimum £10 stake on odds of 1/2 (1.5) or greater on sportsbook (excluding Virtual markets). Further terms apply. #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New customers only. Register, deposit with Debit Card, and place first bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get 3 x £10 in Sports Free Bets & 2 x £10 in Acca Free Bets within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility exclusions & T&Cs Apply. | |
| |
New cust only. Opt-in required. Deposit & place a bet within 7 days and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater to be credited with 3 x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 horse racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 football. Free Bets cannot be used on e-sports and non-UK/IE horse racing. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+. T&Cs apply. Acca Club: Available to new & existing customers. 3 or more selections. Min Odds: 3/10 (1.3) per leg. Max stake: £500. Max Winnings: £200,000 per boost. Profit Boost amounts vary. Horse Racing, Greyhounds & Trotting excluded. Exclusions apply. Full T&C’s apply. 18+ GambleAware.org. | |
 | |
New members only. £10+ bet on sports (ex. Virtuals) 1.5 min odds, settled within 14 days. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days; £20 use on sportsbook, £10 on Bet Builder. Stake not returned. T&Cs.+ deposit exclusions apply #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New bettors. Select bonus at signup or use code SPORT. Wager deposit & bonus 8x. Max qualifying bet = bonus. Valid 60 days. Odds, bet & payment limits apply. T&Cs Apply; 18+ | Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
New customers only, 18+. Min deposit £10. Place a £50 bet on any sport at 2.0+ to qualify for £25 in free bets and 10 Free Spins. Free Bets and Spins valid 7 days. £0.10 Free Spins. T&Cs apply. Please bet responsibly. #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New members only. £10 min deposit & bet on sportsbook (ex. virtuals), placed & settled at 1.5 min odds in 14 days of sign-up. Win part of E/W bets. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days, use on sportsbook only (ex. virtuals), stakes not returned. T&Cs Apply and deposit exclusions apply. Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
18+ New customers only. Opt in, and bet £10 on football markets (odds 2.00+). No cash out. Get 6x£5 football free bets at specified odds for set markets, which expire after 7 days. Offer valid from 12:00 UK Time on 25/08/2023. Card payments only. T&Cs Apply | gambleaware.org | Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
