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Can Sudan’s low-possession grit blunt Burkina Faso’s ball control in Group E? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Burkina Faso's statistical dominance in possession (58.7%) and shot creation (15 per game) suggests they have the quality to break down a defensive opponent. Sudan has struggled to retain the ball, averaging under 40% possession, and their lone win came via an own goal. The technical gap in midfield and the Stallions' superior aerial stats (17 duels won per match) point toward a controlled victory for the higher-ranked side.
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This scoreline aligns with a match where one team dominates the ball. Burkina Faso have the creative tools to find the net twice, while Sudan’s offensive struggles—highlighted by a lack of goals from open play in the group—suggest they may fail to score. A 2-0 result reflects a scenario where the favorites score early and add a second as the underdog is forced to push forward late in the game.
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Sudan vs Burkina Faso Predictions and Best Bets
Sudan vs Burkina Faso — bet365 Market Snapshot
Pricing shown below reflects current match analysis for the final Group E qualification decider.
Burkina Faso enter as strong favourites due to their 58.7% possession average and high shot volume (15 per game) compared to Sudan.
Pricing points towards a controlled away performance, with the 0-1 and 0-2 scorelines carrying the highest implied probability.
- Burkina Faso have averaged 58.7% possession with 84.6% pass success in the tournament, while Sudan sit at 38.5% possession and 75.3% passing — a clear clash of control versus containment.
- Shot volume points to pressure: Burkina Faso are taking 15 shots per game in the tournament compared to Sudan’s 9, which matters because it shows who’s spending more time asking questions near goal.
- The aerial battle leans one way: Burkina Faso’s tournament aerials won figure is 17, while Sudan’s is 8.5, hinting that second balls and set-piece phases could repeatedly tilt territory.
Tactical Control: Tournament Possession Average
A stark contrast in styles, with one side looking to dictate the tempo through passing sequences while the other remains compact.
Sudan has been comfortable conceding territory, focusing on a disciplined low block to limit opposition chances.
The Stallions maintain a high share of the ball, supported by a pass completion rate of 84.6% to build sustained pressure.
Physical Presence: Aerial Duels Won per Game
Aerial dominance can be critical in high-stakes deciders, particularly for defending set pieces and winning second balls.
With a lower aerial success rate, Sudan may face challenges defending repeated deliveries into the penalty area.
Doubling their opponent’s aerial output, Burkina Faso possess a significant height and strength advantage in dead-ball scenarios.
Group E has reached that familiar AFCON point where the maths gets loud and every touch feels like it’s got a consequence. Sudan and Burkina Faso head to Stade Mohamed V in Casablanca on Wednesday with the same tally — three points each — and one clear incentive: win and you put your hands on the second automatic qualification ticket.
Burkina Faso start the night in second, edged ahead on goal difference. Sudan, the Falcons of Jediane, sit third, knowing that fine margins have already shaped their tournament. Sudan’s group-stage story so far has included a heavy 3-0 defeat to Algeria, then a 1-0 win over Equatorial Guinea that dragged them right back into the conversation. Burkina Faso’s route has been similarly tight: a 2-1 win over Equatorial Guinea followed by a 1-0 loss to Algeria.
Casablanca should offer decent playing conditions, with 18° noted at the stadium, but the temperature won’t be what raises pulses. It’ll be the game state. A match where one goal can flip the table, the mood, and the next 20 minutes of decision-making.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Sudan’s possible starting XI reads: Elneel; Barglan, Saeed Ahmed, Karshom, Khamis; Khidir, Omer, Taifour; Abdallah, Eisa, Abdelrahman.
There’s a clear hint of balance in that structure: a back four, a double pivot, and three behind a central forward. Sudan’s formations summary in this tournament points to a 4-2-3-1 being used, with one match logged in that shape. With Elneel in goal and Karshom in the defensive line, the spine looks built for staying in the game and keeping the pitch in front of them, while Taifour and Omer in the middle suggests a willingness to pass rather than just clear their lines.
Burkina Faso’s possible starting XI is listed as: Koffi; Yago, Dayo, Tapsoba, Kouassi; Sangare, Ouedraogo, Zougrana; Traore, Kabore, Sudan.
Their formations summary shows a 4-3-3 across two matches in the tournament. That fits the personnel: a back four with Dayo and Tapsoba central, a three-man midfield, and a front line that should be able to stretch the pitch. Traoré’s inclusion high up the pitch adds a natural point of craft, while Kaboré’s presence suggests a reference point in the final third — someone to occupy centre-backs and keep attacks alive.
The contrasting set-ups are fairly clear on paper: Sudan’s 4-2-3-1 shaping to protect central zones and attack in bursts, Burkina Faso’s 4-3-3 set up to control territory through the middle and create wide overloads.
How the Match Could Be Played
If Sudan’s tournament profile holds, they’re likely to be comfortable without the ball for stretches. Their possession figure in the Africa Cup of Nations sits at 38.5%, which speaks to a side that can accept long defensive phases without panicking. The key question is what they do with the moments they win it.
In a 4-2-3-1, the double pivot matters: those two midfielders decide whether transitions become attacks or just temporary relief. If Khidir and Omer can play forward early into the three behind the striker, Sudan can turn a low-possession approach into something dangerous — particularly if Abdallah and Abdelrahman can arrive quickly around Eisa rather than leaving him wrestling alone.
Burkina Faso, by contrast, look more geared towards building pressure. Their Africa Cup of Nations possession is 58.7%, backed up by an 84.6% pass success rate. That combination hints at a team that wants to organise the match: circulate, move the opposition block, and keep returning to the final third until something gives.
That’s where the midfield trio becomes the game’s steering wheel. With Sangaré listed and a three in the middle, Burkina Faso can create angles to play through Sudan’s first line and force Sudan’s wide players to make a choice: tuck in to protect the centre, or jump out to press full-backs and risk gaps opening inside.
Wide areas could become the decisive battleground. Burkina Faso’s front three in a 4-3-3 naturally invites switches of play and isolation duels, especially if Traoré can drift into pockets to receive and then release runners. Sudan’s full-backs — Khamis on one side, Barglan on the other in the listed XI — may find themselves asked to defend both width and the diagonal runs that appear when a winger pins them and a midfielder underlaps.
The other side of that coin is what happens when Burkina Faso lose it. A possession side can be vulnerable in the two or three seconds after a turnover. If Sudan’s No.10 line can spring forward quickly, there’s space to attack before Burkina Faso’s midfield resets. Sudan’s best moments may be those “imperfect” moments: loose passes, second balls, half-clearances — anything that lets them play into space rather than into a set block.
Set pieces and aerial contests also sit quietly in the background. Burkina Faso’s aerials won figure at this tournament is 17, compared to Sudan’s 8.5. That suggests Burkina Faso can turn dead balls and long phases of pressure into repeat entries, while Sudan may need to be especially clean in their first contacts — because if they don’t win the initial duel, they may have to defend wave after wave.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
The numbers point to a stylistic contrast that matches the shapes. Burkina Faso are taking 15 shots per game at this tournament, compared to Sudan’s 9. That measure matters because it’s a proxy for sustained attacking presence: it isn’t just about finishing, it’s about how often you get to ask the opposition a defensive question.
Sudan’s lower shot volume sits alongside their lower possession (38.5%) and pass accuracy (75.3%). That combination suggests they’ve been playing more directly, or at least more pragmatically — fewer long passing sequences, more time spent in a compact defensive posture. It’s not inherently negative; it can be a deliberate choice. But it does mean Sudan’s chances might come in smaller clusters, putting a premium on timing and decision-making in the final third.
Burkina Faso’s 84.6% pass success and 58.7% possession suggests they should enjoy longer spells of control. The risk is that control becomes sterile if Sudan’s block stays intact. Burkina Faso have scored two and conceded two in two tournament matches, which paints a picture of tight margins: enough threat to score, but not so much defensive cushion that they can afford careless transitions.
Discipline numbers hint at another layer. Sudan’s tournament discipline figure is 41, with Burkina Faso on 40. In a match with so much riding on it, the rhythm can swing on stoppages, cards, and set-piece opportunities — moments where structure matters as much as flair.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The opening 20 minutes may tell you whether this becomes a siege or a chess match. If Burkina Faso pin Sudan back early — building attacks, forcing corners, and keeping the ball around the box — Sudan’s response will likely be about surviving cleanly without turning every clearance into a second phase against them.
Watch the spaces either side of Sudan’s double pivot. That’s the area Burkina Faso will want to access with quick combinations, especially if Traoré can receive between lines and turn. If Sudan can block those passing lanes and force play wide, they’ll back themselves to defend crosses and then break.
Equally, keep an eye on what Sudan do immediately after regaining possession. Do they play early into Eisa and bring runners into the attack, or do they drop into safety-first passes that allow Burkina Faso to reset? Against a side completing passes at 84.6%, giving the ball back too cheaply can feel like lending your opponent another 90 seconds of momentum.
Then there’s the set-piece and aerial layer. With Burkina Faso winning 17 aerials per game at this tournament compared to Sudan’s 8.5, dead balls and second balls could be a steady drip of danger. Sudan will want first contacts. Burkina Faso will want repeat entries.
What could go wrong with this read? A single early goal can scramble every assumption. If Sudan score first, Burkina Faso may have to take bigger risks and the match could stretch into transition football. If Burkina Faso score first, Sudan’s need to chase could open the very spaces they’ve been trying to protect. Fine margins, one ricochet, one decision — and the night can rewrite itself.
Best Bet for Sudan vs Burkina Faso
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Burkina Faso to win
The decisive factor in this match lies in the significant disparity in offensive output and technical control established during the opening rounds. Burkina Faso have averaged 15 shots per game, demonstrating a consistent ability to stress opposition structures and create high-quality openings. This high volume of attacking intent is underpinned by a sophisticated possession game, with the team maintaining a 58.7% average share of the ball and an impressive 84.6% pass completion rate. Such statistical dominance suggests they possess the tools to systematically dismantle defensive blocks, particularly against an opponent that has struggled to retain the ball.
While the Falcons of Jediane showed immense grit in their narrow victory over Equatorial Guinea, their underlying metrics paint a picture of a side under constant pressure. They have averaged just 38.5% possession and a 75.3% pass accuracy, figures that indicate a heavy reliance on defensive discipline and clinical efficiency on the rare occasions they enter the final third. The previous heavy defeat to Algeria further highlighted vulnerabilities when facing technically superior midfields that can dictate the tempo of the game.
Furthermore, the physical and set-piece battle appears skewed in favor of the Stallions. Burkina Faso have won an average of 17 aerial duels per match compared to just 8.5 for their opponents. In a high-stakes qualification decider where nerves can lead to increased fouls, this aerial superiority provides a secondary route to goal through dead-ball situations. Given that they only need to avoid defeat to maintain their edge in the standings, the tactical flexibility sits with the side that can control the rhythm. The combination of higher shot volume, superior passing metrics, and physical dominance makes a victory for the more proactive side the most logical conclusion.
What could go wrong?
Sudan have already proven they can thrive as underdogs by securing a result with minimal possession, as seen in their win over Equatorial Guinea. If they manage to score an early goal from a set piece or a quick transition, they are likely to retreat into an even deeper defensive shell, which could frustrate a side that has occasionally struggled to convert possession into goals. Additionally, a standout performance from goalkeeper Elneel could theoretically bridge the gap between the two sides’ performance levels.
Correct score lean
Sudan 0-2 Burkina Faso
The rationale for a 2-0 scoreline is rooted in the stylistic clash between a high-possession attacking unit and a low-block defensive system. Burkina Faso’s average of 15 shots per game suggests they will eventually find a breakthrough against a side that has allowed significant pressure in previous matches. Once the deadlock is broken, Sudan will be forced to abandon their compact 4-2-3-1 shape to chase the game, leaving gaps for the likes of Traoré to exploit on the counter. Given Sudan has only scored once in the tournament so far—an own goal—a clean sheet for the defensively sound Stallions is a strong possibility.
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