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Will Senegal’s new era under Pape Thiaw begin with a statement against Botswana? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Telstar has seen BTTS in 8/8 home games; Ajax in 9/9 away games. Ajax has conceded in 11 straight away matches.
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Ajax averages nearly 4 goals per game in recent head-to-heads and Telstar consistently scores at home but loses the possession battle.
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Senegal vs Botswana Predictions and Best Bets
Senegal vs Botswana — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample William Hill odds based on our match analysis.
Market pricing reflects Senegal’s status as 2021 champions and their exceptional run of 6 wins in 7 matches.
Tournament trends point toward controlled Senegal victories, with clean sheets being a frequent occurrence in their opening fixtures.
- Thiaw’s early return sets the tone: Pape Thiaw has lost just one of 14 matches in charge while winning 11, a 78.57% win rate.
- Senegal’s recent run has bite and control: they’ve won six of their last seven matches with four clean sheets, and warmed up by thrashing Kenya 8-0.
- Botswana’s historical AFCON benchmark is harsh: in their only previous finals appearance in 2012, they lost all three matches, conceding nine goals and scoring just twice.
Momentum: Recent Winning Percentage
Senegal arrive in Morocco with high confidence under Thiaw, while Botswana have struggled to find consistent victories.
With 11 wins in 14 games, Senegal have maintained elite levels of performance through their recent managerial transition.
Botswana have lost four of their last five matches, highlighting the difficulty they face against top-tier continental opposition.
Individual Threat: Sadio Mane’s Record
The presence of a world-class goalscorer often defines the margin of victory in tournament openers.
Mane’s hat-trick against Kenya in their record victory confirms he remains the central attacking pillar for the Lions.
Senegal begin their 2025 Africa Cup of Nations campaign against Botswana with a point to prove as well as a target to chase. They’re the 2021 champions, but the last tournament ended at the round-of-16 stage, and there’s a fresh face on the touchline now too. Pape Thiaw has taken over following Aliou Cisse’s departure in December 2024, and this opener is the first real chance to set the tone of Senegal’s new chapter in a competition where their standards are already sky-high.
Botswana, meanwhile, arrive carrying the weight of history rather than the comfort of it. This is only their second appearance at the finals, with the first coming back in 2012. They left that tournament without a win from three group matches, and with just two goals scored while conceding nine. That context doesn’t decide what happens next, but it does explain the edge in ambition on one side and the “make it a story” energy on the other.
There’s also recent momentum in play. Senegal ended their build-up by thrashing Kenya 8-0, described as their biggest-ever victory, and they arrive having won six of their last seven matches, keeping four clean sheets in that run. Botswana’s recent spell reads far rougher, losing four of their last five (with one draw), and they were beaten 2-1 by Tunisia in their most recent friendly. On paper, it’s a classic tournament-opener dynamic: a heavyweight looking to land an early statement, and an underdog looking to stay upright long enough to swing.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Senegal’s likely XI is named as Mendy; Diatta, Koulibaly, Niakhate, Diouf; I. Gueye, L. Camara, P. Sarr; I. Sarr, Jackson, Mane. That looks like a 4-3-3: a back four with a three-man midfield built for control, and a front three with pace, directness, and a focal point in Jackson.
There’s a note of disruption, though. Senegal will be without Assane Diao, who has withdrawn due to a thigh injury. Habib Diarra “only just made the squad” after recovering from a groin problem, which hints at late decision-making around midfield options even if the listed XI suggests a settled trio.
Botswana are set to line up Kaosipula; Velaphi, Leinanyane, Gaolaolwe, Johnson; Seakanyeng, Mohutiswa, Ditsele; Boy, Sesinyi, Orebonye — another 4-3-3 on the page. They arrive with no reported injury concerns, and it’s also noted they have just five players based outside the domestic league. That matters for how they might manage the occasion: compact distances, clear roles, and a premium on doing the simple parts of the game well enough to stay in it.
The headline individual name is Sadio Mane. He’s described as Senegal’s all-time leading goalscorer with 51 goals in 119 appearances, and he remains “central” to Senegal’s attacking threat, having recently scored a hat-trick against Kenya. In a tournament opener, that kind of personality can tilt the temperature of a match all by itself.
How the Match Could Be Played
With both sides listed in a 4-3-3, this could look like a mirror — but mirrors don’t always reflect equally. Senegal’s selection suggests a side that can hold the ball, recover it quickly, and attack with width and depth at the same time. I. Sarr and Mane either side of Jackson gives them natural lanes to stretch Botswana’s back four: one winger can hold the touchline while the other darts inside, or both can run beyond to pin full-backs and open space for midfield arrivals.
The midfield triangle is where Senegal can turn this from “favourites” into “game on their terms”. A three of I. Gueye, L. Camara and P. Sarr points to a platform that can circulate possession, squeeze the second ball, and keep play in Botswana’s half. If Senegal can keep Botswana penned in, the match becomes about repetition: recycle, probe, force a clearance, win it back, go again. It’s not glamorous, but it’s exactly how tournament openers become comfortable.
Botswana’s likely response, with Seakanyeng, Mohutiswa and Ditsele in midfield, is to keep the centre shut and make Senegal play around them. If they can block the passes into Senegal’s front three and force attacks wide, their back line can at least see the danger coming. That would make the wide duels vital: Velaphi and Johnson against Senegal’s wingers, with Botswana needing their full-backs to win enough one-v-ones to stop the box becoming a permanent place of work.
Transitions are Botswana’s most obvious route into the contest. With Boy, Sesinyi and Orebonye up front, they’ll want to turn defensive moments into forward movement quickly — one clean carry, one early pass into a channel, and suddenly Senegal’s centre-backs are running towards their own goal rather than stepping forward. The challenge is getting those moments often enough. Senegal arrive off a run that includes four clean sheets in their last seven matches, so breaking their rhythm is as important as breaking their line.
Senegal’s pressing approach is also likely to shape the game state. They’re described as unbeaten inside 90 minutes in AFCON since the 2019 edition, and that kind of record usually starts with control of the basics: rest defence, counter-pressing, and limiting cheap turnovers. If Senegal win the ball high, the match can swing quickly into a sequence of chances. If Botswana beat that first wave, they can at least buy a few breaths and push play away from their own box.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Thiaw’s early run in charge sets the backdrop. He has lost only one of his 14 matches — a friendly defeat to Uganda — while winning 11, which is stated as a 78.57% win rate. That tells you Senegal haven’t been drifting through the managerial change; they’ve been sharp, organised, and results-focused, which is exactly what you want heading into a tournament opener.
The form line is equally strong: Senegal have won six of their last seven matches (with one loss), keeping four clean sheets. The most recent, the 8-0 against Kenya, is framed as their biggest-ever victory, and it’s hard to ignore what that does to confidence and attacking freedom. When a side arrives off that kind of performance, the expectation isn’t simply to win; it’s to play with authority.
There’s also tournament muscle memory. Senegal have won their opening group match at each of the last five AFCON tournaments, keeping a clean sheet on four of those occasions. In plain terms, they tend to start fast and keep things tidy early. Add in the note that only one of Senegal’s last nine AFCON group matches has seen both teams score, and you get a picture of a side that can control the risk profile of group games rather than turning them into shoot-outs.
Botswana’s recent numbers pull the other way. They’ve lost four of their last five matches (with one draw), were beaten 2-1 by Tunisia last time out, and have not won a game in regulation time since March (four draws and four losses). That matters tactically because it can influence choices: a team without recent wins often prioritises staying in the game over chasing it early, especially against a side with Senegal’s attacking firepower.
On individual influence, Mane’s record adds a final layer. He has 51 goals in 119 appearances for Senegal, and it’s stated Senegal have never lost a match in which he has scored (37 wins, five draws). That doesn’t guarantee anything in a one-off game, but it does underline his knack for scoring in matches Senegal go on to manage successfully.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The opening quarter-hour feels huge here. Senegal have the profile of a side that can settle quickly, and Botswana have the profile of a side that would love to make the match feel messy and uncertain. If Senegal score early, their 4-3-3 can become a platform for control: keep the ball, move Botswana around, and pick the moments to accelerate. If Botswana keep the game level deep into the first half, the tension shifts, and every successful counter or set of passes becomes a small psychological win.
Keep an eye on how Botswana handle the wide areas. Senegal’s likely front three gives them natural width and direct running, and that can drag full-backs into constant decisions: step out and risk space behind, or drop off and allow deliveries and cut-backs. Those decisions tend to produce the game’s cleanest chances, especially when a side is confident enough to repeat the same attack with minor tweaks until something opens.
The other big swing factor is Senegal’s defensive discipline in transition. With a midfield three, they should have numbers around the ball when attacks break down — but Botswana’s best moments are likely to come when they win it and go quickly into space. One pass that turns Senegal’s midfield, one runner timed right, and you can flip the match from “Senegal pressure” to “Senegal scrambling” in a heartbeat.
What could go wrong with this read? Tournament openers are notorious for strange rhythms. Nerves can flatten a team’s tempo, an early miss can stretch the mind, and an underdog hanging around can turn small moments into big ones. Senegal can dominate territory and still find themselves in a tight contest if Botswana defend with discipline and steal enough breaks to keep Senegal honest.
Best Bet for Senegal vs Botswana
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Senegal to win to nil
The contrast in tournament pedigree and current form makes a convincing case for the heavyweights to open their campaign with a professional, shutout victory. Senegal arrive in Morocco as one of the most stable defensive units on the continent, having conceded just one goal across their entire six-match qualification cycle. This defensive airtightness is a long-standing hallmark of their group-stage approach; they have kept six clean sheets in their last seven AFCON group matches, with a 3-1 win over Cameroon being the only occasion in that stretch where their goal was breached.
The historical data for tournament openers further reinforces this selection. Senegal have won their opening match at each of the last five Africa Cup of Nations editions, and remarkably, they did so without conceding a goal in four of those five victories. This indicates a repeated ability to manage the initial nerves of a major competition by prioritizing structural discipline. When you factor in that only one of their last nine group games in this competition has seen both teams find the net, the pattern of one-sided scoring becomes even more pronounced.
Botswana, by comparison, enter this fixture struggling for offensive momentum. They have not recorded a win in regulation time since March and have suffered four defeats in their last five outings. Their squad, which features only five players based outside their domestic league, faces a significant step up in quality against a Senegal backline led by Kalidou Koulibaly. Given that Botswana have failed to score a second-half goal in their last four competitive internationals and have lost both previous head-to-head meetings with Senegal without ever scoring, the likelihood of them breaking through is slim. Senegal’s recent 8-0 thrashing of Kenya underscores their confidence, and they should have more than enough control to secure three points while keeping their own sheet clean.
What could go wrong
The unpredictable nature of opening fixtures often leads to cagey, low-tempo affairs where a single lapse in concentration can be costly. Botswana showed resilience during their qualification campaign by securing 1-1 draws against established sides like Egypt and Mauritania, proving they can frustrate superior opposition. If Botswana can successfully sit in a deep block and limit Sadio Mane’s space, they may hunt for a goal via a set-piece or a rare counter-attack, potentially ruining the shutout even in a losing effort.
Correct score lean
Senegal to win 2-0
A 2-0 scoreline is the most logical reflection of the statistical gap between these two nations. Senegal average high goal outputs in recent friendlies, but their major tournament group games are typically defined by control rather than chaos. They have won their last five AFCON openers, often by comfortable but measured margins, such as their 3-0 win over Gambia in 2023. Given Botswana’s recent defensive struggles—conceding two or more goals in four of their last five matches—it is highly probable that Senegal’s front three will find multiple openings. However, Botswana’s desperate need to keep the score respectable in a group format should prevent a total collapse.
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