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Can Gabon’s pride disrupt Ivory Coast’s control in Marrakesh? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Ivory Coast are the defending champions and remain unbeaten in the tournament with four points from two games. They possess far greater motivation than Gabon, who have already been eliminated following back-to-back losses. The Ivorians have shown immense defensive discipline, conceding only four shots on target in the competition so far. With Amad Diallo in goalscoring form and a midfield built for control, they should be able to dictate the pace against a Gabon defense that conceded three goals in their last outing.
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This selection aligns with Ivory Coast's established pattern of winning by narrow margins. Five of their last six victories at the finals have been by exactly one goal. They have focused on defensive solidity, as shown by their 1-0 win over Mozambique earlier in the group. While Gabon have attacking threats like Aubameyang, the Ivorian backline has been highly restrictive. A single goal is often enough for this side to see out a game, making a 1-0 victory the most logical scoreline.
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Gabon vs Ivory Coast Predictions and Best Bets
Gabon vs Ivory Coast — BetMGM Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample BetMGM odds based on our match analysis.
Defending champions Ivory Coast are heavily favoured to secure a win against an already-eliminated Gabon side, reflecting the gap in recent form.
Pricing points towards a controlled Ivory Coast performance, with a narrow 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline considered highly probable in Marrakesh.
- Diallo as the difference-maker: Amad Diallo has 2 goals in 2 Africa Cup of Nations appearances, averaging 4 shots per game and a 7.73 rating, underlining both volume and end product.
- Where the shots come from matters: Ivory Coast take 72% of their shots from inside the box compared to Gabon’s 65%, a split that hints at Ivory Coast finding more central, higher-danger shooting zones.
- Control through passing: Ivory Coast’s Africa Cup of Nations pass completion is listed at 88.3% versus Gabon’s 82.3%, a gap that suggests cleaner progression and fewer cheap turnovers when building attacks..
Technical Control: Pass Completion Rate
Ivory Coast’s ability to sustain pressure is reflected in their high success rate when moving the ball across the pitch.
A high completion rate suggests the defending champions are comfortable resetting play and managing match tempo.
Gabon show a lower completion rate, which often aligns with a more direct and high-risk transition style of play.
Efficiency: Shots From Inside the Box
Where shots originate often determines their threat level; these figures highlight which side works the ball into higher-value zones.
The Elephants prioritize getting into the penalty area before shooting, which typically leads to higher-quality chances.
While still finding the box, Gabon are more prone to attempts from distance compared to their opponents.
Already-eliminated Gabon have nothing but pride to play for in their final match of Group F, but that does not make the occasion any softer. Not when the opponents are Africa Cup of Nations defending champions Ivory Coast, and not when the setting is Marrakesh, where the Stade de Marrakech is primed to stage a proper end-of-group scramble.
Ivory Coast arrive with the bigger targets still in view. Emerse Fae’s side have yet to secure their final position in what’s been labelled the “Group of Death”, and they go into this one looking to extend a Cup of Nations unbeaten run under their former midfielder. The table tells its own story: Ivory Coast sit on four points after two matches, level with Cameroon, while Gabon have none after two defeats, having scored twice and conceded four.
That contrast in mood is sharpened by the opening fortnight of the tournament. Gabon were edged out 1-0 by Cameroon before a 3-2 defeat to Mozambique, a game that at least showed they’ve got enough bite going forward to make an opponent sweat. Ivory Coast, meanwhile, have been measured rather than wild: a 1-0 win over Mozambique and a 1-1 draw with Cameroon, two results that keep the door open and the pressure on.
The final twist is familiarity. These sides played out a 0-0 draw in World Cup qualification on 9 September 2025, and there’s recent history of tight margins between them. The question is whether Gabon can turn “pride” into punch — or whether Ivory Coast’s structure and control simply squeezes the life out of the evening.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Gabon’s possible starting lineup is listed as: Mbaba; Onfia, Moucketou-Moussounda, Lemina, Ekomie; Kanga, N’Dong; Babicka, Poko, Bouanga; Aubameyang.
On paper, that reads like a back four with a double pivot, three attackers behind a central forward — a shape that matches the tournament formation summary showing Gabon in a 4-2-3-1. The spine stands out: Didier Ndong and Guélor Kanga as the deeper platform, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang as the reference point, with Denis Bouanga offering movement and threat from the line behind.
Ivory Coast’s possible starting lineup is listed as: Y. Fofana; Doue, Koussounou, Ndicka, Konan; Kessie, Sangare, S. Fofana; Diallo, Bayo, Zaha.
That’s a familiar balance and aligns with their tournament formations summary showing a 4-3-3. The midfield trio of Franck Kessie, Ibrahim Sangaré and Seko Fofana suggests a side built to control territory and tempo, while the front three has clear profile differences: Amad Diallo offering directness and output, Vakoun Bayo as the central presence, and Wilfried Zaha bringing the one-v-one edge.
There is also a separate list of absences/notes dated 29/12/2025 that includes E. Essang Matouti (shoulder injury) and M. Lemina (unknown injury), alongside “called up to national team” notes for E. Baboué Bocoum and D. Ndong Ibrahim. If Lemina is fit enough to start, Gabon’s build-up and defensive duels look sturdier; if not, their ability to hold the line against Ivory Coast’s wide threats could be tested.
How the Match Could Be Played
With the shapes as listed, the first tactical storyline writes itself: Ivory Coast’s 4-3-3 against Gabon’s 4-2-3-1 is a classic contest of midfield access. Ivory Coast can naturally create a three-versus-two in the centre, and that matters because it influences everything — where the ball travels, who receives under pressure, and how often Gabon can get their attacking midfielders turned towards goal.
If Ivory Coast establish their rhythm, the likely picture is patient circulation through Kessie, Sangaré and Seko Fofana, using Y. Fofana behind them as a calm reset option, and encouraging their full-backs — Guéla Doué and Ghislain Konan — to step up and stretch the pitch. That stretching is key, because Gabon’s line behind the striker (with Babicka, Poko and Bouanga) can easily get pulled into a narrow, protective shape. Once that happens, the outside lanes belong to the full-backs and wingers.
For Gabon, the simplest route to make this messy is to turn the game into a series of short, sharp transitions. Aubameyang gives them a clear outlet to hit early, and the supporting cast is designed for second-ball moments: Bouanga can arrive into pockets, while Babicka and Poko can run into space if Ivory Coast’s full-backs are caught high. In that sense, the match can swing on a small detail: how quickly Gabon can play forward after a regain, and whether their first pass after winning it has the quality to beat Ivory Coast’s midfield screen.
Out of possession, Gabon’s 4-2-3-1 can press in a couple of ways. They can keep Aubameyang up to threaten the space behind, dropping the line of three into midfield lanes to block central access. Or they can step the attacking midfield line up and go man-for-man in midfield for spells, trying to disrupt Ivory Coast’s pass rhythm. The risk in the second approach is obvious: if you jump, you must win. If you don’t, you’re suddenly defending your centre-backs in open grass against runners from wide.
Ivory Coast’s pressing cues are easier to anticipate with the personnel listed. A 4-3-3 naturally sets up to press a back four by steering play wide, and Diallo and Zaha are the sorts of forwards who can lock on and try to force hurried clearances. If Ivory Coast win the ball high, the first look will be to attack the half-spaces quickly — that lane between full-back and centre-back — especially on the side where Gabon’s wide player has tracked deep and is half a yard late to recover.
Set pieces and aerial duels could also shape the mood. Gabon have some serious aerial numbers in the squad list — Mick Omfia is shown with 5 aerials won, while Bruno Ecuele Manga has 4.5 — and if this becomes a game where Gabon are defending waves and living for restarts, those battles become their way to breathe. Ivory Coast, though, aren’t short of presence either, with Bayo shown at 2.5 aerials won and Ndicka at 2 in tournament figures.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
The tournament overview makes the contest feel less one-sided than the table suggests in at least one respect: both sides are listed at 14 shots per game in the Africa Cup of Nations. That measures how often they’re getting attempts away, and it hints that Gabon, even in defeat, have still managed to create and pull the trigger. The question is the type of shots and where they’re coming from.
Zooming out to the broader match data provided, Ivory Coast’s shot profile leans towards danger: 72% of their shots are from inside the box, compared to 65% for Gabon. That matters because it’s a proxy for chance quality — closer, more central opportunities tend to force bigger decisions from defenders and goalkeepers. If Ivory Coast can keep getting into those zones through wide deliveries and cut-backs, Gabon will be asked to defend their own six-yard line for long stretches.
Possession and passing point towards Ivory Coast control, too. In the tournament stats, Ivory Coast are listed with 52.7% possession and 88.3% pass completion, while Gabon are at 56.6% possession and 82.3% pass completion. Possession alone can be misleading, but pass completion speaks to how cleanly you progress without coughing it up. Ivory Coast’s higher completion suggests a side more comfortable sustaining pressure and resetting attacks.
Individual tournament numbers underline who the sharp edge has been for Ivory Coast so far. Amad Diallo is listed with 2 goals in 2 appearances, alongside 4 shots per game and a 7.73 rating. Those stats matter because they tie output to involvement: it’s not just that he’s scored, it’s that he’s repeatedly getting shots away, which suits a match where Ivory Coast may dominate territory and need someone to turn control into end product.
At the other end, Gabon’s brighter individual notes include Alex Moucketou-Moussounda with 1 goal and Didier Ndong carrying a 7.28 rating across his two tournament appearances, with 1.5 shots per game and 2 aerials won. That blend suggests a midfielder capable of competing and contributing at both ends — and in a game where Gabon may have to suffer without the ball for spells, that sort of all-action profile becomes vital.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first swing moment is whether Gabon can land an early punch in transition. Not necessarily a goal — just a couple of breaks where Aubameyang receives early and Bouanga arrives close enough to turn it into a real attack. If Gabon can do that, Ivory Coast’s full-backs may think twice about flying on, and the whole match can tilt from siege to something more open.
The second is the wing duels. With Zaha and Diallo listed either side of Bayo, Ivory Coast have forwards who can turn “one defender” into “two defenders” in a heartbeat. If Gabon’s wide players get pinned too deep, their full-backs can end up facing repeated isolations. If Gabon can instead get their wingers and full-backs working as pairs — forcing Ivory Coast to recycle rather than cross early — they give themselves a chance to keep the game on the edges rather than in their box.
A third moment sits in midfield: how Gabon handle the extra Ivory Coast midfielder. If Ndong and Kanga are overrun centrally, the “10” line behind Aubameyang will be forced to drop into survival mode, and Gabon’s counters will become lonely sprints rather than connected moves. If they can hold the centre, even for phases, then Gabon can push Poko and Bouanga higher and make Ivory Coast defend running back towards their own goal.
Finally, keep an eye on game management. Ivory Coast are unbeaten in the tournament so far, with a win and a draw, and they’ve conceded one goal across two matches. If they score first, the match can quickly become an exercise in control: fewer risks, more circulation, and a steady squeeze on Gabon’s legs and patience.
What could go wrong with this read? Football has a habit of laughing at tidy previews. A single lapse on a set piece, one deflection that turns a half-chance into a big chance, or an early moment of over-commitment in midfield can flip the script. And with Gabon playing for pride, emotional swings can be real — the kind that don’t always show up in shape diagrams.
Best Bet for Gabon vs Ivory Coast
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Ivory Coast to win
Ivory Coast enter this final group stage fixture with their unbeaten tournament record intact and a clear objective to secure the top spot in the standings. While Gabon have shown they can be competitive, scoring twice in their recent 3-2 loss to Mozambique, their elimination from the tournament after two consecutive defeats leaves them playing only for pride. In contrast, the defending champions have demonstrated the kind of defensive solidity and tactical control required for deep tournament runs. Across 180 minutes of football in this competition, the Ivorian backline has been remarkably disciplined, allowing only four shots on target. This defensive efficiency is complemented by the clinical form of Amad Diallo, who has scored both of his nation’s goals in the tournament so far.
The contrast in recent form and motivation is stark. Gabon’s defensive frailties were exposed in their five-goal thriller against Mozambique, where they fell behind by two goals on two separate occasions. Although players like Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Denis Bouanga provide a genuine threat on the counter-attack, Ivory Coast’s midfield trio of Franck Kessie, Ibrahim Sangaré, and Seko Fofana is specifically designed to suppress such transitions. By maintaining 52.7% possession and an 88.3% pass completion rate, the Elephants are adept at starving opponents of the ball and controlling the tempo of the game. History also favors the designated away side, as they have lost just one of their last nine meetings with Gabon. Given that Ivory Coast need a result to guarantee their progression and potentially win the group, their superior structure and motivation should see them overcome a Gabon side that has conceded four goals in just two matches.
What could go wrong?
The primary risk to this selection is the “nothing to lose” factor often associated with already-eliminated teams. With the pressure of qualification removed, Gabon may play with more freedom, potentially leading to an inspired performance from veteran Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang in what could be his final tournament appearance. Furthermore, as seen in their 0-0 draw during World Cup qualification in September 2025, Gabon are capable of executing a low block that frustrates the Ivorians, and a similar stalemate would see this bet fail.
Correct score lean
0-1
The rationale for a narrow 1-0 victory for Ivory Coast is rooted in their efficient, controlled approach to tournament football under Emerse Fae. The defending champions have prioritized stability over spectacle, evidenced by the fact that five of their last six victories at the continental finals have been by a single-goal margin. Defensively, they are incredibly difficult to break down, having conceded just once in the tournament and allowing very few high-quality chances. Gabon’s attack has found the net, but against a disciplined Ivorian side that has already recorded a 1-0 win in this group, a single moment of quality—likely from the in-form Amad Diallo—should be enough to decide a tight contest.
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