bet365
BetMGM
Betfred
BetUK
LiveScoreBet
10Bet
Virgin Bet
Can Benin’s new belief survive Senegal’s pressure as Group D reaches its finish line? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
To use the Live Streaming service you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Geo location and live streaming rules apply.
▾
Hibernian’s high shot volume (12.37 per game) and superior league level make them heavy favorites to outscore the hosts. Dunfermline’s potential rustiness after a three-week layoff, combined with Hibs' lethal counter-attacking threats like Youan and McGrath, suggests a game with at least three goals where the Premiership side prevails.
▾
Hibs possess the firepower to score multiple times, while Dunfermline’s Andy Tod is in sufficient form to exploit Hibs' weakness in maintaining leads. A 3-1 result covers the expected talent gap while acknowledging the home side's scoring ability.
[bt4y_readers_tip]
Benin vs Senegal Predictions and Best Bets
Benin vs Senegal — bet365 Market Snapshot
Market snapshot showing implied probabilities based on listed bet365 odds for the final Group D fixture.
Tournament pedigree and scoring form place Senegal as strong favourites to top the group.
9/110/31/4Low-scoring Senegal victories dominate the pricing, reflecting Benin’s defensive stubbornness.
9/29/213/2- Senegal’s volume and control: Across two tournament matches they’ve scored four goals and averaged 19.5 shots per game, alongside 56.4% possession and a 94.7% pass success rate.
- Benin’s tight-margin tournament so far: Two AFCON games have produced one Benin goal scored and one conceded, with 48.7% possession and an average of 11 shots per game shaping a more selective approach.
- A striker already makingconsiderable impact: Nicolas Jackson has two goals in Senegal’s two AFCON matches, while Benin’s Steve Mounié has one goal and one assist, underlining direct involvement in their attacking output.
Match Control: Shot Volume and Possession
A comparison of offensive activity and ball retention through the tournament so far.
With 56.4% possession and a 94.7% pass success rate, they dictate the tempo through sustained pressure.
Operating with 48.7% possession, they are more selective, relying on disciplined structure and specific counters.
Passing Accuracy: Technical Precision
Tournament favourites Senegal arrive in Tangier with the job already half-done, but not fully finished. Group D is concluding at the Ibn Batouta Stadium and, with both sides well-placed to reach the knockout stages, Benin v Senegal has that neat edge: it’s not a dead rubber, yet it doesn’t need to be chaos either.
Benin have given themselves a proper platform. Saturday’s 1–0 win over Botswana wasn’t just three points; it was a landmark result, recorded as the first Africa Cup of Nations win in the nation’s history. Senegal, meanwhile, sealed qualification after a hard-fought 1–1 draw with DR Congo in their last outing, having opened their tournament with a 3–0 victory over Botswana.
So this is the classic final-round group game: one side with momentum and a story, the other with pedigree and expectation. Benin have already shown they can live inside tight scorelines and protect what matters. Senegal have shown they can put teams away, but also that they can be dragged into a scrap and still come out the other side.
The question now is what kind of match this becomes. A controlled Senegal performance that squeezes the air out of Benin’s counters? Or a Benin display that stays stubborn long enough for the nerves to creep in and one moment to swing the whole evening?
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Benin’s possible starting XI is listed as: Dandjinou; Ouorou, Verdon, Tidjani, Roche; D’Almeida, Dodo, Imourane, Tosin, Olaitan; Mounie.
That looks like a side built for structure first. With Mounie leading the line, Benin have a clear reference point up top, and the cluster of names behind him suggests bodies around the ball rather than a wide-open, end-to-end plan. If Tosin and Olaitan are used as the main connectors, the balance will likely hinge on whether they can turn possession into support runs close to Mounie, rather than leaving him isolated and feeding on scraps.
Senegal’s possible starting XI is: Mendy; Diatta, Koulibaly, Niakhate, Jakobs; I. Gueye, P. Gueye, I. Ndiaye; I. Sarr, Mane, Jackson.
On paper, that’s loaded with attacking options and control in midfield. Jackson is the obvious spearhead, with Mane and Sarr able to threaten from either side of him. Behind them, the presence of I. Gueye and P. Gueye alongside I. Ndiaye points towards a midfield that can both circulate the ball and step in to stop transitions quickly.
Formation notes provided also point towards Benin operating in a 4-2-3-1 in this tournament, while Senegal have used a 4-1-4-1 shape in at least one match. If that holds, the key early detail is the central zones: Benin’s double pivot and three behind the striker versus Senegal’s lone holding midfielder with a line of four ahead of him. In simple terms, Benin may try to crowd the middle; Senegal may try to move the ball quickly enough that the crowd never settles.
How the Match Could Be Played
If Benin stick to a 4-2-3-1 feel, their best route is likely to keep the game compact, protect the space between midfield and defence, and make Senegal prove they can break a set block without handing over easy counters. With Verdon and Tidjani as the listed centre-backs, the priority will be managing the space around the box when Senegal’s front three start rotating: Jackson pinning, Mane drifting into inside pockets, Sarr threatening runs that force defenders to turn.
Senegal’s listed back four also hints at an approach where the full-backs can push the game forward. If Jakobs and Diatta step high, Senegal can try to pin Benin’s wide players back and turn the considered Benin shape into a line of five in practice. That matters because it changes Benin’s attacking outlets: instead of having Tosin and Olaitan ready to sprint beyond Mounie, they might find themselves defending deeper and longer, then trying to sprint 60 yards when the ball finally breaks.
A likely tactical rhythm is Senegal circulating possession, trying to pull Benin’s midfield pair out of their screen, then finding Mane and I. Ndiaye between the lines. If those pockets are blocked, Senegal can go around: quick switches, overlaps, and cut-backs aimed at Jackson. The presence of Koulibaly and Niakhate also suggests Senegal can hold a higher line with confidence, meaning Benin’s “escape” passes have to be accurate and timed — or they risk being immediately recycled back at them.
For Benin, the match could hinge on whether Mounie can turn clearances into genuine attacks. If he can secure first contact and bring others into play, Benin can create those brief moments where Senegal’s midfield line is behind the ball and the defence has to defend facing its own goal. If he can’t, the game becomes wave after wave, and Benin are essentially playing for long spells without meaningful relief.
Pressing is another swing area. Senegal’s shape, with a lone striker and a four behind in the 4-1-4-1 template, can be aggressive on triggers: a loose touch, a pass into a full-back, a centre-back receiving side-on. Benin’s build-up then becomes a question: do they try to play through midfield with D’Almeida and Dodo offering angles, or do they accept the pressure and go longer earlier? Either way, Senegal will try to make Benin’s first pass uncomfortable, because that’s where transitions begin.
And if the match opens up even slightly, Senegal’s front line has the tools to punish it. Benin’s best work so far has come in tight games, but tight games only stay tight if you keep your distances right. One rushed step forward, one late recovery run, and suddenly Mane is receiving on the half-turn with Jackson already moving.
Free Bet Offers
Swipe to see more →
T&Cs Apply. Click to view.
T&Cs Apply. Click to view.
T&Cs Apply. Click to view.
T&Cs Apply. Click to view.
The Numbers That Support the Story
The tournament-level picture in this group backs up the idea of Senegal having more of the ball and more of the attacking initiative. Across their two Africa Cup of Nations matches, Senegal have scored four goals and averaged 19.5 shots per game, with 56.4% possession and a 94.7% pass success rate. That combination usually points to sustained territory: the ball kept in the right areas, and the patience to keep probing until the opening arrives.
Benin’s tournament return is different: two matches, one goal, an average of 11 shots per game, 48.7% possession, and a 92.0% pass success rate. Read plainly, it suggests Benin can look after the ball when they have it, but are more likely to spend longer without it and have to be choosy about when to commit numbers forward.
The group table adds context to the stakes. After two games, Senegal have four points with a goal difference of +3 (four scored, one conceded). Benin sit on three points with a goal difference of 0 (one scored, one conceded). That’s the shape of two different tournaments so far: Senegal playing with a bit more margin, Benin living on the edge where one moment often decides everything.
Even individual tournament contributions underline Senegal’s threat spread. Jackson has two goals in the competition to date, while Mane has one, and Ismail Jakobs and Ismaïla Sarr are both listed with one assist each. Benin’s goals have come from Yohan Roche and Steve Mounié, with Mounié also credited with an assist — which hints at how much Benin’s attacking moments may revolve around their central striker being directly involved.
Key “Moments” to Watch
One: the first ten minutes after Senegal’s initial press. If Senegal pin Benin back early, the key is whether Benin can find a clean release to Mounie and get Tosin or Olaitan running beyond him. If Benin can force Senegal to defend even two or three transitions, it changes the psychology of the game: Senegal’s full-backs and midfield can’t simply camp in Benin’s half.
Two: the space around Mane. Senegal’s listed forward line and midfield options suggest Mane can appear in the inside channels rather than staying glued wide. If Benin’s midfield screen stays disciplined, those pockets may be crowded; if one midfielder jumps out too eagerly, the passing lane opens and suddenly Benin’s centre-backs are defending a moving target.
Three: whether Benin’s defending stays clean inside their own box. Senegal’s shot volume in the tournament points to sustained pressure, and the more attacks you have to withstand, the more likely one second ball drops the wrong way. For Benin, it’s not about heroic last-ditch blocks every time; it’s about preventing the cut-back in the first place and keeping the scramble to a minimum.
Four: Jackson’s duel with Benin’s central defenders. Jackson’s tournament scoring so far shows he’s finding chances and taking them. Benin’s back line has conceded only once in two matches at this tournament, so the contest is sharp: can Benin keep the striker’s touches away from goal, or will Senegal find the one pass that puts him through the middle?
What could go wrong with this read? Plenty. A match that looks like it will be controlled can flip on one mistake, one deflection, or one early goal that forces the other side to abandon its preferred structure. Benin have already shown they can make a low-scoring game work for them, and Senegal have shown they can be held to a draw even when they arrive as the more established side. Fine margins don’t care about narratives.
Best Bet for Benin vs Senegal
[bt4y_article_veil]
Senegal to win and Under 3.5 Goals
Senegal enter the final group game with their passage to the next round essentially secure, but they will want to maintain the momentum that has seen them go unbeaten in the tournament so far. While they displayed their scoring touch in a 3-0 opening victory against Botswana, their second outing was a much tighter 1-1 affair against DR Congo. This suggests a pattern where they can dominate when given space but are also comfortable managing games that become more tactical.
Across their two matches, the Lions of Teranga have averaged 56.4% possession and maintained a remarkably high pass success rate of 94.7%. These figures point to a side that prioritizes control, using the likes of Idrissa Gueye and Pape Gueye to recycle play and keep the opposition at arm’s length. With 19.5 shots per game, they clearly have the creative engine to find a breakthrough, but their defensive record is equally impressive, having conceded only once in the tournament.
Benin, fresh from their first-ever Africa Cup of Nations win, will likely adopt a very defensive posture to protect their slim chances of progression. They have only scored once in two games and average 48.7% possession, indicating they are prepared to work without the ball for long periods. Given that Benin have conceded only one goal in their two fixtures, they have shown the defensive discipline required to prevent a blowout. Senegal’s objective will be a professional victory to top the group, and given Benin’s stubbornness and Senegal’s efficiency, a low-scoring win for the favorites is the most logical outcome.
What could go wrong Tournament dynamics can shift if an early goal is scored by the underdog, forcing the favorite to overextend. If Benin manages to score first through a set-piece or a moment of individual brilliance from Steve Mounie, Senegal would have to abandon their controlled approach and chase the game, potentially leading to a much more open and higher-scoring contest than their previous metrics suggest.
Correct score lean
Senegal 2-0
A 2-0 scoreline aligns with the statistical reality of both nations’ recent performances. Senegal have averaged two goals per game in this tournament, largely driven by the clinical finishing of Nicolas Jackson, who has already netted twice. Defensively, they are bolstered by the presence of Kalidou Koulibaly and Moussa Niakhate, making it difficult for a Benin side that has struggled for goals to find a way through. Benin have only one goal to their name in the competition and have shown they prefer to remain compact rather than commit men forward, making a clean sheet for Senegal highly probable.
Selected Bookmakers Offers
| |
New customers: Deposit £10+ in 7 days & bet on sports. Min odds apply. Reward = 4 x £10 Free Bets (2 x £10 Bet Builders & 2 x £10 Sports Bet). Valid 7 days. Free bets not valid on eSports and non-UK/IE horse racing. 18+. T&Cs apply. | |
| |
Open Account Offer - New Customers only. Bet £10 and get £30 in Free Bets when you join bet365. Sign up, deposit between £5 and £10 to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value settle. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs , time limits & exclusions apply. Registration Required. #Ad. 18+ Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New cust only. Opt-in required. Deposit & place a bet within 7 days and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater to be credited with 3 x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 horse racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 football. Free Bets cannot be used on e-sports and non-UK/IE horse racing. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+. T&Cs apply. Acca Club: Available to new & existing customers. 3 or more selections. Min Odds: 3/10 (1.3) per leg. Max stake: £500. Max Winnings: £200,000 per boost. Profit Boost amounts vary. Horse Racing, Greyhounds & Trotting excluded. Exclusions apply. Full T&C’s apply. 18+ GambleAware.org. | |
| |
New customers only. Register, deposit with Debit Card, and place first bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get 3 x £10 in Sports Free Bets & 2 x £10 in Acca Free Bets within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility & payment exclusions apply. T&Cs Apply. | |
 | |
New members only. £10+ bet on sports (ex. Virtuals) 1.5 min odds, settled within 14 days. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days; £20 use on sportsbook, £10 on Bet Builder. Stake not returned. T&Cs.+ deposit exclusions apply #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New bettors. Select bonus at signup or use code SPORT. Wager deposit & bonus 8x. Max qualifying bet = bonus. Valid 60 days. Odds, bet & payment limits apply. T&Cs Apply; 18+ | Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
New customers only, 18+. Min deposit £10. Place a £50 bet on any sport at 2.0+ to qualify for £25 in free bets and 10 Free Spins. Free Bets and Spins valid 7 days. £0.10 Free Spins. T&Cs apply. Please bet responsibly. #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New members only. £10 min deposit & bet on sportsbook (ex. virtuals), placed & settled at 1.5 min odds in 14 days of sign-up. Win part of E/W bets. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days, use on sportsbook only (ex. virtuals), stakes not returned. T&Cs Apply and deposit exclusions apply. Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
