Algeria vs Togo Preview: Desert Foxes Target Crucial AFCON Qualifying Victory. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Algeria's strong attack under Hemdani and Togo's poor away record support a home win with both teams scoring. Algeria's defensive weaknesses make a Togo goal likely despite historical clean sheets. This balanced view fits recent scoring and conceding patterns for both sides.
Algeria's consistent multiple-goal scoring and defensive lapses suggest a 2-1 win is likely. Togo's resilience keeps the scoreline close, avoiding heavy defeats. This aligns with recent matches where Algeria scored twice and Togo managed a goal, making 2-1 a plausible exact score prediction.
Algeria will look to strengthen their grip on Group I when they welcome Togo to the Hocine Aït Ahmed Stadium on Saturday, 14 November, in the third round of 2027 Africa Cup of Nations qualifying.
Algeria vs Togo — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Algeria's unbeaten streak and Togo's away struggles shape the match result market.
Algeria hold the stronger winning edge, while Togo still offer enough threat for BTTS.
Togo carry the stronger defensive profile, while Algeria remain vulnerable in the likely scoreline.
Algeria hold the stronger overall profile, leaving Togo needing a sharper performance.
Three Punchy Stats
- 6 wins in 7: Algeria have dominated their recent meetings with Togo.
- 13 goals conceded: Algeria have failed to keep a clean sheet in seven consecutive matches.
- 1 win in 13: Togo's away record highlights the scale of Saturday's challenge.
Scoring Frequency Comparison
Recent attacking records for Algeria and Togo are shown below.
Clean Sheet Comparison
Recent defensive records for Algeria and Togo are shown below.
The Desert Foxes lead the group with four points from two matches, while Togo sit third on three points, behind Zambia on goal difference. With the teams scheduled to meet again in Lome three days later, this encounter could significantly influence the qualification race.
Algeria's Attacking Strength Meets Defensive Concerns
Algeria have shown encouraging attacking qualities since Brahim Hemdani replaced Vladimir Petkovic, remaining unbeaten in three matches under their new manager.
Their qualifying campaign began with a convincing 3-1 victory over Zambia before a spirited comeback secured a 2-2 draw away to Burundi. Having fallen two goals behind, Algeria demonstrated the resilience needed to preserve their unbeaten start.
A subsequent 2-1 friendly victory over Niger further highlighted their attacking potential, with Mohamed Belloumi and Ramy Bensebaini overturning a first-half deficit.
However, defensive vulnerability remains a significant concern.
Algeria have conceded 13 goals across their previous seven matches without recording a clean sheet. Although they have scored at least twice in three consecutive fixtures, their inability to protect their goal has repeatedly complicated otherwise promising performances.
Against Togo, Hemdani will want greater defensive discipline without sacrificing the attacking movement that has characterised his opening matches.
Historical results provide encouragement. Algeria have won six of their last seven meetings with Togo and prevented the Sparrowhawks from scoring in four of their previous five encounters.
Togo Face a Difficult Away Assignment
Togo began their qualification campaign positively, defeating Burundi 1-0 through Dermane Karim's decisive goal.
However, Patrice Neveu's side subsequently suffered a 2-0 defeat against Zambia, ending a six-match unbeaten sequence across all competitions.
That setback exposed the challenge facing a team seeking their first AFCON finals appearance since 2017.
Their away performances are particularly concerning.
Togo have registered just one victory in their last 13 matches outside their home country, drawing six and losing six. Their previous away success came against Niger in March 2024.
Nevertheless, the Sparrowhawks have demonstrated an ability to remain competitive even when results have proved elusive.
They have avoided defeats by two or more goals in 16 of their previous 20 competitive matches, suggesting that Algeria may need patience to establish control.
For Neveu, maintaining defensive organisation while creating opportunities on the counterattack could prove essential.
Team News and Tactical Outlook
Algeria must navigate several absences, including Bachir Belloumi, Jaouen Hadjam and Hicham Boudaoui, who are unavailable through injury.
Rafik Belghali has also withdrawn, while Fahem Benaissa-Yahia and Adem Zorgane have joined the squad as replacements.
Yacine Titraoui returns to provide midfield options, with Mohamed Azzi and Abderrahmane Rebbach receiving their first senior call-ups.
Mohamed Amoura, Amine Gouiri and Ibrahim Maza could form Algeria's attacking combination, supported by Nabil Bentaleb and Himad Abdelli in midfield.
Togo are missing Sharani Zuberu, Steven Nador and Mansour Ouro-Tagba, although the return of Kennedy Boateng and Thibault Klidje offers reinforcements.
Lilian Brassier could make his international debut, while Kevin Denkey provides an attacking outlet.
Algeria should enjoy substantial attacking opportunities, but their defensive record leaves room for Togo to threaten during transitions.
Match Prediction: Algeria 2-1 Togo
Algeria possess the stronger recent head-to-head record, home advantage and greater attacking momentum.
However, their ongoing defensive difficulties suggest that a comfortable victory is far from certain.
Togo's away struggles favour the hosts, although the visitors' ability to keep matches competitive could make this a tighter contest than the historical record suggests.
A narrow Algeria victory appears the most plausible outcome, strengthening their position ahead of the return fixture.
This is a combined market that requires two distinct conditions to happen for the bet to win. Algeria must win the match at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time, AND Togo must score at least one goal. If Algeria win 1-0 or 2-0, the bet loses because Togo failed to score. If the match ends in a 1-1 or 2-2 draw, the bet loses because Algeria failed to win. Both conditions must be satisfied.
Other opportunities in this market:
Backing Match Result (Algeria to win) simply requires the home side to be ahead at the final whistle, removing the requirement for Togo to score. It trades the higher price of the combined market for the safety of covering clean-sheet victories like 1-0 or 2-0.
The Correct Score market requires you to predict the exact final scoreline at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If you select 2-1 to the home team, Algeria must score exactly twice and Togo must score exactly once. Any other result—including a 3-1 Algeria win or a 2-2 draw—means the selection loses.
Other opportunities in this market:
Over 2.5 Goals wins if the match contains at least three total goals, regardless of who scores them or what the final outcome is. It covers a 2-1 scoreline but also secures a return on 3-0, 0-3, or 2-2, trading exact-score precision for a wider safety net of winning scenarios.
📊 Market Explainer
Win & Both Teams to Score
Selection: Algeria to win and both teams to score. The selected team must win in normal time and both teams must score. If the selected team draws or loses, or either side fails to score, the bet loses.
Correct Score Market
Selection: Algeria vs Togo 2-1. Predict the exact score at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties do not count unless the bookmaker states otherwise.
🎯 Pick 1: Algeria to win and both teams to score @ 12/5
Algeria’s recent attacking form under Brahim Hemdani points towards a home victory, but their persistent defensive issues make the combined market an appealing angle. The Desert Foxes are unbeaten in three matches since the managerial change, scoring at least twice in each fixture. However, that attacking output has masked underlying defensive problems, with the hosts conceding 13 goals across their last seven outings and failing to record a single clean sheet during that sequence.
Togo’s away record suggests they will struggle to take all three points, having managed just one victory from their last 13 matches outside their home country. Despite those difficulties, the Sparrowhawks demonstrated scoring capability in their opening 1-0 qualification win against Burundi. Algeria’s habit of falling behind—conceding first against both Burundi and Niger before recovering to avoid defeat—gives the visitors a credible path onto the scoresheet. Togo’s forwards, bolstered by Kevin Denkey, will recognise opportunities against a defence that has consistently leaked goals.
The most obvious counter-argument stems from historical meetings, as Algeria have prevented Togo from scoring in four of their last five encounters. Nevertheless, current evidence paints a different picture of Algeria’s backline. The home side navigating defensive absences like Jaouen Hadjam removes an option from a unit that has already conceded heavily in recent months. Balancing the strong home attacking momentum with their established defensive vulnerability, an Algeria victory combined with a Togo goal offers a coherent reading of the current statistics.
🎯 Tactical Indicators
- Algeria conceded 13 goals in last seven matches without a clean sheet.
- Algeria scored at least twice in three consecutive matches under Hemdani.
- Togo have one win in their last 13 away matches, with six draws and six losses.
Risk Factor: Historical clean sheets against Togo may mean Algeria win without conceding, failing BTTS.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Algeria have scored at least twice in three consecutive matches, showing strong attack.
Togo have just one away win in 13 matches, highlighting their travel difficulties.
⚔️ Pick 2: Algeria vs Togo 2-1 @ 7/1
A 2-1 home victory aligns neatly with both sides’ recent statistical patterns. Algeria have reliably produced multiple goals under Hemdani, scoring exactly twice against Burundi in a 2-2 draw and twice against Niger in a 2-1 win, while also hitting three past Zambia. That attacking consistency supports the home side registering at least two goals here. At the same time, Algeria’s sequence of zero clean sheets across their last seven matches provides clear justification for Togo breaching the home defence once.
For the visitors’ part of the scoreline, Togo have proven resilient even when failing to secure victories on their travels. Neveu’s team have avoided defeats by two or more goals in 16 of their previous 20 competitive fixtures. This suggests they possess the organisation to prevent Algeria from turning the match into a blowout. Togo scored exactly once in their opening qualification victory against Burundi, and a solitary goal against a generous Algerian backline is a realistic expectation.
The primary risk to this exact scoreline is the historical head-to-head record, which features four Algerian clean sheets from the last five meetings. If that historical trend repeats itself despite Algeria’s current defensive struggles, a 2-0 home victory becomes a significant threat. However, leaning on the current campaign’s evidence, Algeria’s blend of reliable attacking output and consistent defensive lapses leaves 2-1 as a highly plausible outcome. It respects the visitors’ established ability to keep margins tight while acknowledging the hosts’ superior scoring quality.
Risk Factor: If Togo's defensive resilience fails or Algeria tighten up, the 2-1 scoreline may not hold.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the 'Algeria to win and both teams to score' market mean?
Algeria must win and Togo must score at least one goal for the bet to win.
How does the Correct Score market settle for this match?
You must predict the exact final score; 2-1 means Algeria 2 goals, Togo 1 goal.
Why are Algeria heavily favoured to win the match?
Algeria are unbeaten in three matches and have a strong recent record against Togo.
What evidence suggests Togo can score against Algeria?
Algeria have conceded 13 goals in seven matches without a clean sheet, showing defensive weakness.
Does Togo's away record make an upset unlikely?
Togo have only one away win in 13 matches, making an upset less likely.
Why is a 2-1 scoreline specifically predicted?
Algeria score multiple goals but concede often; Togo usually keep matches close.
