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Algeria, Ivory Coast & Cameroon All To Win








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Cameroon’s defensive record (0.4 goals conceded/game) combined with dominant possession (63%) gives them the platform to control the game. Facing a Gabon side that concedes 1.4 goals per match, the hosts’ superior xG (1.56) should see them outscore their opponents in at least one 45-minute period.
Magri is the spearhead of the attack with 20 shots inside the box and a solid 40% on-target ratio. With 57 touches in the opposition penalty area and a high xG of 3.54, he is the most likely player to benefit from Cameroon’s creativity and test the keeper.
Baleba has fired off 10 shots this season, with 9 coming from outside the box. As Cameroon are expected to camp in the opposition half, he will find pockets of space to shoot from distance. His volume of attempts suggests he is due to find the range against a leaky Gabon defence.
This 7/1 treble leans on the game state of Cameroon controlling territory. We need the hosts to convert their 63% possession dominance into a winning half, while relying on their two most active shooters—Magri in the box and Baleba from range—to force saves against a statistically vulnerable Gabon defence.
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Haller is a pure penalty-box presence, with all 17 of his recent recorded shots coming from inside the area. With 9 headers in that sequence and Ivory Coast averaging 10 shots per game, the supply line from wide areas should provide him with ample opportunities to test a porous Mozambique defence.
Bayo is a volume shooter, averaging an attempt on goal roughly every 25 minutes of play (11 shots in 284 minutes). With 9 of those shots coming from inside the box and a recent goal for the national team against Oman, his aggressive style makes him a prime candidate to hit the target.
As Ivory Coast push their wing-backs high, space will appear on the counter-attack for Mozambique. Gildo, a goalscorer for his country recently against Uganda, is the likely outlet to exploit these gaps. He only needs one clean break to land a shot on target.
This 4/1 treble is grounded in the expected game state. We anticipate Ivory Coast dominating territory, feeding Haller and Bayo in the box against a Mozambique defence that concedes 1.4 goals per game. Conversely, the high defensive line of the champions creates the perfect counter-attacking environment for Gildo Vilanculos to register an effort on the break.
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Algeria, Ivory Coast & Cameroon All To Win
Cameroon vs Gabon: Cameroon to win, Cameroon most corners, Bryan Mbeumo to score first
Cameroon vs Gabon: Cameroon to Win Either Half, Carlos Baleba: 1+ Shots on Target, Frank Magri: 1+ Shots on Target
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