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Premier League gameweek 22 concludes with a Monday night fixture that carries far more weight than the mid-table standings suggest. Here’s our Bet Builder pick for Brighton vs Bournemouth, which has been placed with William Hill:
Why this pick
While the Amex is a fortress, Brighton’s tactical profile—weak against counter-attacks and prone to individual errors—is a perfect match for Bournemouth’s strengths. The visitors actually average more shots per game (14.35) than their hosts and have scored in seven straight matches. We are backing Iraola’s chaos-ball to overwhelm a Brighton side that can be bullied aerially and on the break.
Why this pick
The Italian defender is averaging a yellow card every 97 minutes this season, having been booked twice in just 194 minutes of action. He faces a rapid, direct Bournemouth front line that thrives on isolation. With Coppola already committing four fouls in limited time and showing vulnerability when dribbled past, a mistimed challenge against the likes of Evanilson is highly probable.
Why this pick
Bournemouth are a corner machine, averaging 5.57 per game due to their high volume of crosses and shots. Brighton add another 4.48 to the mix, pushing the combined average over the 10-corner mark. With both teams defending loosely and prioritizing attack (both put 62% of shots in the box), the end-to-end nature of this Monday night fixture guarantees plenty of set-pieces.
This 25/1 longshot relies on a cohesive narrative: Bournemouth’s high-volume, direct style causing an upset against a fragile Brighton defence. We expect the visitors to win a chaotic shootout, forcing plenty of corners through their crossing game, while their transition threat draws a booking from the inexperienced and card-prone Diego Coppola.
Fabian Hurzeler’s Brighton, currently sitting 11th on 29 points, welcome an Andoni Iraola-led Bournemouth side just three points behind them in 15th. With the gap to the European places remaining tempting for any side capable of stringing a run together, the stakes at the Amex Stadium are palpable.
The narrative here is a fascinating clash of philosophies. Brighton arrive in confident mood, unbeaten in four and fresh off a gritty 1-1 draw at Manchester City and a 2-1 FA Cup victory over Manchester United. Bournemouth, meanwhile, are looking to rebound from FA Cup heartbreak against Newcastle, a chaotic 3-3 draw that ended in penalty defeat. It is a meeting of Brighton’s calculated control against Bournemouth’s high-energy disruption, and we have identified a specific game script that offers massive value at 25/1.
Brighton vs Bournemouth Bet Builder Tip
Bournemouth To Win
Backing the visitors to leave the Amex with all three points requires looking past the surface-level form guide. Yes, Brighton have turned their home ground into a genuine fortress, taking 19 of their 29 points on home soil and losing just two of their last 18 league matches there. However, the stylistic matchup here suggests the Cherries are uniquely equipped to dismantle Brighton’s specific brand of dominance.
The key lies in the “chaos factor.” While Brighton prioritize possession (52%) and clean passing patterns (84.3% accuracy), they possess distinct vulnerabilities that Bournemouth are built to exploit. Brighton are structurally weak when defending counter-attacks and prone to individual errors. This is dangerous territory against an Iraola side that thrives on transition. Bournemouth’s front line—featuring the direct threat of Evanilson, Kroupi, and Tavernier—does not need long spells of possession to hurt you. They rely on winning the ball high and striking fast, a tactic that cuts straight through Brighton’s desire to expand the pitch.
Statistically, the visitors are actually the more aggressive attacking unit. Bournemouth average 14.35 shots per match compared to Brighton’s 13.72, and they put 62% of those efforts inside the box. This volume-heavy approach has seen them score in seven consecutive matches across all competitions. They are relentless, and while their defence has been porous (conceding 2.9 goals per away game), their ability to turn games into shootouts gives them a puncher’s chance against anyone.
Furthermore, set-pieces could prove to be the great equalizer. Brighton struggle significantly with aerial duels and defending set-pieces. In contrast, Bournemouth are rated as strong in attacking these situations. With the visitors averaging over five corners a game, they will have ample opportunity to bombard the Brighton box.
Finally, there is the mentality aspect. Bournemouth are strong at coming back from losing positions, meaning an early Brighton goal won’t kill the game. Conversely, Brighton struggle to defend against skillful players and foul often in dangerous areas. If Bournemouth can lure Brighton into a scrap rather than a chess match, the visitors’ superior shot volume and “never say die” attitude make them a huge value pick to overturn the odds on the south coast.
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Diego Coppola To Be Carded
In a game likely to be defined by pace and transition, Brighton defender Diego Coppola looks significantly overpriced to find his way into the referee’s notebook. The 22-year-old Italian centre-back has played limited minutes this season—just 194 in total—but his disciplinary record in that short time is alarming.
Coppola has picked up two yellow cards in his five appearances (only two of which were starts). That averages out to a booking roughly every 97 minutes of football. Effectively, if he plays a full game, history suggests he gets carded. His cautions came in high-pressure situations against Arsenal and Sunderland, suggesting a tendency to struggle when the tempo rises.
The tactical dynamic on Monday night does him no favours. He is up against a Bournemouth attack that is direct, fast, and constantly looking to isolate defenders. With Brighton playing a high line to support their possession game, Coppola will often find himself defending large spaces one-on-one against agile forwards like Tavernier or Evanilson.
His stats reinforce the concern: in his brief cameos, he has already committed four fouls and been dribbled past twice. Brighton as a team are known to be vulnerable to fouling in dangerous areas, and Coppola appears to be a primary contributor to that weakness. With Bournemouth averaging 14.35 shots and constantly driving into the box, the physical load on the Brighton defence will be heavy. If Coppola is forced to make a recovery tackle to stop a Bournemouth breakaway—something the visitors specialize in—he is the prime candidate for a card.
Over 10 Corners
When these two sides meet, the game tends to be played vertically rather than horizontally, which is the perfect recipe for a high corner count. The underlying numbers make a compelling case for the line to exceed 10.
Bournemouth are prolific corner winners, averaging 5.57 per game (128 total). This stems from their specific style of play: they attempt crosses often and take a high volume of shots. They don’t look for the perfect pass; they put the ball in the danger zone at every opportunity. Deflected crosses and saves from their 14+ shots per game naturally accumulate corners.
Brighton add a healthy average of 4.48 corners per game (112 total) to the equation. Their attacking width, provided by players like Mitoma and De Cuyper, forces opponents to clear lines frequently. When you combine the two team averages, you are already looking at a baseline of over 10 corners (10.05).
The game state reinforces this statistical trend. With Bournemouth conceding nearly three goals per away game and Brighton’s defence far from watertight (28 conceded this season), both goalkeepers—Verbruggen and Petrovic—will be busy pushing shots round the post. Additionally, Brighton’s weakness in aerial duels serves as an invitation for Bournemouth to play for set-pieces, knowing they have a physical advantage in the box. In a match where Over 2.5 goals is heavily favoured, the attacking actions required to hit that goal count will almost certainly drag the corner count up with it.
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