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The post-Christmas action continues unabated this Sunday, serving up a spectacular mix of top-tier Grade 1 excitement in Ireland and competitive chasing action in the UK.
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Sharpened by his return to hurdling, Ballyburn is almost sure to be involved. He holds a perfect three-from-three record at Leopardstown and is unbeaten on yielding ground. While he narrowly lost to Teahupoo at Fairyhouse, his flawless venue record and expected fitness progression support him turning the tables here.
Summary: Sharpened by his return and boasting a 100% course record → Ballyburn
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This six-year-old impressed on his chase and handicap debut at Southwell. He could easily make light of the 8lb rise. While Hecouldbetheone found the ground too soft, The Bluesman faces exposed rivals like Stratagem. His trainer Olly Murphy has a 25% strike rate, and the horse has won 67% at this distance.
Summary: Impressed on chase debut and can defy the weight rise → The Bluesman.
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Conyers Hill brings strong form from two good runs at Cheltenham and a second over this course and distance. He is taken to score in this competitive handicap. Trainer Paul Nolan’s runner faces rivals with vulnerabilities, such as Dancing Jeremy lacking a recent run and Ballybawn Belter remaining a maiden over fences.
Summary: Good Cheltenham form and course proven → Conyers Hill
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A breakthrough win looks very near for this consistent maiden who performed well in both prior chases. Rivals face issues: Pep Talking bled last time, and Flamelco finished remotely at Aintree. Two To Tango offers a reliable profile against opponents with significant questions like recent falls or poor form.
Summary: Consistent maiden ready for a breakthrough win → Two To Tango.
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Ballyburn reverses form with Teahupoo thanks to his 100% course record at Leopardstown and increased sharpness. He combines with Two To Tango, who has performed well in both chase starts and is very near a breakthrough victory against erratic opposition.
- Ballyburn has a 100% win record (3-3) at Leopardstown.
- Teahupoo has a 75% win record (3-4) on the prevailing going.
- The Bluesman has won 67% of his races (2-3) at the 2m4f distance.
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The headline act is undoubtedly the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown, a race that promises a ferocious rematch between two staying giants. Meanwhile, Leicester and Limerick offer intriguing puzzles, with several runners arriving on the cusp of breakthrough performances or looking to defy the handicapper after recent successes.
Below, we dissect the key contests and highlight the runners who make the most appeal based on the facts before us.
1:55 Leopardstown – Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1)
Rationale The narrative surrounding this year’s Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle is dominated by a compelling rivalry. Ballyburn arrives at Leopardstown with a clear mission: to turn the tables on Teahupoo. Sharpened by his return to hurdling, he is primed to improve on his reappearance at Fairyhouse where he just lost out in the Hatton’s Grace. That close finish confirms he retains immense ability, and he is almost sure to be involved at the business end here.
Crucially, Ballyburn brings a flawless record to this specific venue. He is three-from-three at Leopardstown, a 100% strike rate that gives him a significant edge. Leopardstown demands rhythm, and his unblemished profile here proves he relishes the configuration. Furthermore, his record on the prevailing going is also perfect at three-from-three. When a horse combines a 100% course record with a 100% going record, they are a formidable proposition.
The opposition is fierce. Teahupoo is a multiple Grade 1 winner and arrives as the victor from that Fairyhouse clash. He just held off Ballyburn on that occasion, proving his grit. Teahupoo operates at a 75% strike rate on this going (three wins from four) and has won 50% of his races at this distance. It is an intriguing rematch, but the venue tips the balance. While Teahupoo has formidable numbers, Ballyburn’s absolute perfection at Leopardstown provides the platform for a reversal of form.
Beyond the big two, the field possesses significant depth, although many arrive with questions to answer. Bob Olinger is a former Stayers’ Hurdle hero, but he will do well to match his second place in this race last year. His trainer, Henry De Bromhead, has a modest 6% strike rate in the last 14 days, which is a concern.
Home By The Lee has won this event on two occasions. That course-and-distance pedigree is undeniable, with a 67% course strike rate. However, there is much more depth to this race than 12 months ago, meaning the standard required to win has risen significantly.
The younger challengers also face stiff tests. The Yellow Clay is a smart novice from last season but needs to raise his game after suffering an odds-on defeat at Navan on his return. While he has won at the course and distance previously, that recent reversal is a hurdle he must overcome. Mystical Power, a talented novice from two seasons ago, needs to start rebuilding his career after reverses. He has lost his way, making him a dangerous proposition to trust in a Grade 1.
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Rocky’s Diamond finished third in this race last year when progressive, but his task is tough as he reverts from chasing. The switch of disciplines at this level is a demanding ask. Finally, Jetara, despite running well in three Grade 1 attempts last season, will find it hard to win at this level.
Ultimately, the race boils down to the two heavyweights. With Ballyburn sharper for his run and returning to a track where he has never known defeat, the stars align for him to exact revenge on Teahupoo and cement his status at the top of the division.
Best bet: Ballyburn to win at 1:55 Leopardstown
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2:57 Leicester – Aspall Cyder Leicestershire Silver Fox Handicap Chase
Rationale The focus in this Class 3 handicap chase falls squarely on The Bluesman, a six-year-old on a steep upward curve. He could easily make light of the 8lb rise he earned for his last victory. That win came at Southwell, where he impressed on his chase and handicap debut, a performance that signaled his aptitude for the larger obstacles and handicap company.
An 8lb rise is significant, but for a young horse with potential, it will not stop his progression. His trainer, Olly Murphy, operates at a solid 25% strike rate overall, and The Bluesman’s record of two wins from three starts at the distance (67%) proves stamina is a key asset.
The dangers are present but look exposed in comparison. Hecouldbetheone ran well last time, but the ground was perhaps too soft, and while he has a strong distance record (46% strike rate), he faces a better-handicapped rival here. Heeztheboy is in great form, winning two on the bounce, and was very nearly four-from-four for this yard. He commands respect, but he faces a rival in The Bluesman who possesses unexposed quality.
Noche Negra is 12lb higher than his win at Warwick last December and without the 7lb claimer he had then, his task is much harder. Stratagem has been away for 277 days and made a quiet stable debut; he needs to show much more to feature here. With Moonshine Man left behind by the winner last time and Miralago beaten heavily in two runs for his new yard, the race sets up perfectly for the progressive favorite.
Best bet: The Bluesman to win at 2:57 Leicester
2:15 Limerick – Campion Insurance Tim Duggan Memorial Handicap Chase
Rationale In this competitive Listed handicap, Conyers Hill is the one taken to score. His recent profile is robust, characterized by two good runs at Cheltenham this year, form that translates well back to domestic competition. Furthermore, he finished second over this course and distance in October, proving his ability to handle the specific demands of the Limerick track.
He should be bang there, a confidence derived from his consistency. He is trained by Paul Nolan, and with Jordan Gainford (14% strike rate last 14 days) in the saddle, the partnership is strong.
The opposition has vulnerabilities. Dancing Jeremy won this race last year but the lack of a recent run leaves him vulnerable. Rebel Gold is a veteran whose younger legs will likely have his measure, despite a dropping mark. Uncle Pat is making his handicap debut after fair form in beginners’ chases, but this is a step into the unknown.
Bushmans Pass is a course winner but this trip looks too short, a worry for a horse needing a stamina test. El Champo ran well at Cheltenham but is 3lb wrong at the weights here, a distinct disadvantage in a tight handicap. With Ballybawn Belter yet to win in ten chase starts, Conyers Hill represents the most solid, proven, and in-form option in the field.
Best bet: Conyers Hill to win at 2:15 Limerick
1:47 Leicester – Madri Excepcional Handicap Chase
Rationale Emma Lavelle’s runner, Two To Tango, is primed for a victory and a breakthrough win looks very near. Although still a maiden, the horse is consistent and has performed well in both his chases. This consistency is vital in a race where rivals have patchier profiles.
Pep Talking is a threat having won six of fourteen over fences, but he bled last time, a health issue that punters must treat with caution. Jackpot Cash finds this ground more favourable than at Plumpton, but he is up against a horse in Two To Tango who is improving with experience.
Sun Art doesn’t look on that good a mark unless fences bring about improvement. Flamelco had a remote finish at Aintree and doesn’t arrive here in flying form. Rodney fell when looking like winning at Bangor but failed to back that up at Warwick. Amidst these runners with recent falls, bleeding issues, or poor form, Two To Tango’s solid, consistent profile makes him the sensible choice to finally get his head in front.
Best bet: Two To Tango to win at 1:47 Leicester
🧪 Daily Super Double
(Two of today’s selections combined)
Ballyburn (1:55 Leopardstown) & Two To Tango (1:47 Leicester)
Ballyburn reverses form with Teahupoo thanks to his 100% course record at Leopardstown and increased sharpness. He combines with Two To Tango, who has performed well in both chase starts and is very near a breakthrough victory against erratic opposition.
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