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The Boxing Day football schedule is one of the most anticipated dates in the sporting calendar, offering a breathless run of fixtures that often defines the middle phase of the season.
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Nigeria have scored eight goals in three games but are yet to keep a clean sheet. Mozambique have scored in every game so far and the last H2H ended 3-2. Nigeria’s firepower should win it, but their defense remains leaky.
Summary: Nigeria concede in every game but avg 16.3 shots → Nigeria to Win and Both Teams to Score.
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Leicester concede 1.5 goals per game, and BTTS has landed in 11 of their last 12. West Brom average 13.9 shots per game and excel at set-pieces, Leicester’s main weakness. Both defenses are statistically fragile.
Summary: BTTS has landed in 11 of Leicester’s last 12 games → Both Teams to Score.
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Benevento are unbeaten at home (8 wins, 1 draw) and have scored 4+ goals in three of their last four games. Crotone are winless in five away games and failed to score in four of those.
Summary: Benevento have won 8 of 9 home games; Crotone winless in 5 away → Benevento to Win.
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Cosenza have scored in 16 consecutive league games and lost just once in their last ten. Monopoli have lost the first half in four consecutive away matches and struggle to impose themselves on the road.
Summary: Cosenza have scored in 16 straight games; Monopoli struggle away → Cosenza to Win.
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Leg 1: Benevento to Win (vs Crotone) The evidence here is overwhelming. Benevento have won eight of nine home games and remain unbeaten at the Stadio Ciro Vigorito. They are facing a Crotone side that hasn't won in five away attempts and has failed to score in four of those. With Benevento scoring for fun (4+ goals in three of their last four games) and Crotone firing blanks on the road, this is the strongest home win selection of the day. Leg 2: Both Teams to Score – Leicester City vs West Brom The stats for this fixture are undeniable. Both teams have scored in 11 of Leicester’s last 12 games. Leicester concede 1.50 goals per game, while West Brom concede 1.31 (and even more away from home). West Brom’s high shot volume (13.9 per game) and set-piece strength target Leicester’s exact weaknesses, while Leicester’s own attack is potent enough to breach a Baggies defence that has lost eight away games in a row.
- Benevento have won eight and drawn one of their nine home matches this season, keeping clean sheets in their last three league outings.
- Both teams have scored in 11 of Leicester City’s last 12 Championship matches.
- Nigeria have conceded at least one goal in all three of their AFCON group stage matches despite winning every game.
This year, the festive programme delivers a fascinating blend of high-stakes Championship clashes, Premier League drama at Old Trafford, and crucial group stage action from the Africa Cup of Nations.
With teams navigating tight turnarounds and squad rotation, the traditional variables of form and fitness are compounded by the sheer intensity of the schedule. From league leaders looking to solidify their dominance to chasing packs aiming to disrupt the order, December 26 promises to be a day where tactical discipline and physical resilience are tested to the limit. We have analysed the key matchups to bring you the best selections for the day’s action.
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Coventry City vs Swansea City
Kick-off: 22:00, December 26, 2025 Venue: Coventry Building Society Arena
Rationale
The Championship leaders welcome Swansea City to the Coventry Building Society Arena in a fixture that presents a stark contrast in trajectory. Coventry City have established themselves as the division’s premier attacking force, having netted an impressive 53 goals in just 22 league games. This offensive potency is supported by a relentless approach to chance creation; the Sky Blues average 17.08 shots per match, with a significant 69% of those attempts generated from inside the penalty area. This ability to consistently penetrate the opposition box has turned their home ground into a fortress, evidenced by a run of seven consecutive home league victories and an unbeaten streak of 11 matches at the CBS Arena across all competitions.
Conversely, Swansea City arrive in the Midlands battling a severe case of travel sickness. While their recent home form has seen an upturn, their performances on the road remain a major concern. The Swans have succumbed to defeat in their last four away matches across all competitions and have failed to secure a victory in seven of their last eight league outings on their travels. This disparity is further highlighted by their defensive metrics; having conceded 30 goals in 22 games, they face a Coventry attack that boasts a goal difference of +30.
Tactically, the visitors may struggle to contain Coventry’s high-volume shooting strategy. Swansea’s own offensive output is considerably lower, averaging 11.77 shots per game, with nearly half of those efforts coming from outside the box. This suggests a difficulty in breaking down defences, a weakness that Coventry—despite missing the suspended Jay Dasilva and injured goalkeeper O. Nnonyelu Dovin—are well-equipped to exploit. With Victor Torp and Matt Grimes controlling the midfield and Haji Wright offering a focal point up front, the hosts possess the structural integrity to dominate territory. The absence of Dasilva is a blow, but the statistical gulf between a side that cannot stop winning at home and one that cannot stop losing away is difficult to ignore.
Best bet: Coventry City to Win
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Wrexham FC vs Sheffield United
Kick-off: 17:30, December 26, 2025 Venue: Racecourse Ground
Rationale
This Boxing Day encounter at the Racecourse Ground pits Wrexham’s formidable home resilience against a Sheffield United side arriving with genuine momentum. Wrexham have been incredibly stubborn hosts, remaining unbeaten in their last eight Championship home matches. In fact, looking further back, they have avoided defeat in 37 of their last 42 competitive fixtures on their own turf. However, their recent broader form has been patchy, with only one win in their last six league outings, and they face a significant selection crisis between the posts with goalkeeper Danny Ward sidelined due to a hand injury.
Sheffield United, sitting just below Wrexham in the table, enter this contest in contrasting form, having won four of their last six league games. The Blades have also historically enjoyed this fixture, having scored at least two goals in each of their last three meetings with Wrexham—matches that have been high-scoring affairs, including scores of 4-2 and 3-3. The visitors possess a possession-based style, averaging 52.3% of the ball compared to Wrexham’s 45.4%, which suggests they will look to control the tempo.
However, Wrexham’s threat is distinct and physical. Kieffer Moore is a massive presence in the air, winning 7.3 aerial duels per match, which provides the hosts with a direct route to goal that can bypass midfield battles. This aerial capability ensures that Wrexham are almost always a threat to score, particularly at home. Yet, the absence of Ward in goal and key defensive options like Liberato Cacace and Issa Kabore leaves the hosts vulnerable at the back. Sheffield United’s ability to generate corners—170 in recent counts—indicates they will apply sustained pressure. Given the history of high-scoring games between these two and the defensive gaps in the home side’s lineup, this match appears primed for goals at both ends, with the visitors holding the edge in quality and recent winning form.
Best bet: Sheffield United to win and Both Teams to Score
Manchester United vs Newcastle
Kick-off: 20:00, December 26, 2025 Venue: Old Trafford
Rationale
Ruben Amorim’s Manchester United host Newcastle United in a fixture that promises intensity but highlights significant defensive frailties for the hosts. The headline news is the absence of United captain Bruno Fernandes due to a soft tissue injury, a loss that strips the midfield of its primary creative engine. While United have been prolific in terms of shot volume—averaging 16.53 attempts per game—their defensive record is alarming. They are conceding 1.65 goals per game and have managed to keep a clean sheet in just 6% of their matches. This systemic inability to shut out opponents suggests that even at Old Trafford, their goal is likely to be breached.
Newcastle travel with their own inconsistencies but possess specific weapons that target United’s weaknesses. The Magpies are noted for their strength at attacking set-pieces and aerial duels, an area where United are statistically vulnerable. Although Newcastle’s away scoring record is modest at 0.88 goals per game, the porous nature of United’s backline offers a prime opportunity to improve that figure. The visitors will also be buoyed by the form of Nick Woltemade, who recently scored twice against Chelsea and provides a key link between midfield and attack.
The match data points toward a contest where defences will be stretched. United’s matches average nearly 3.5 goals per game, reflecting a chaotic “you score, we score” dynamic. Both teams also show a tendency to concede late goals, with spikes in the 81st to 90th minutes, indicating that concentration levels dip as the game wears on. With United desperate to end a home winless run stretching back to October, and Newcastle looking to exploit the hosts’ defensive gaps, a clean sheet for either side seems highly improbable. The expected midfield battle, potentially featuring a less mobile Casemiro against Newcastle’s dynamic runners, further increases the likelihood of open spaces and goalscoring chances for both teams.
Best bet: Both Teams to Score — Yes
Morocco vs Mali
Kick-off: December 26, 2025 (AFCON Group Stage) Venue: Neutral Venue
Rationale
In Group A of the Africa Cup of Nations, Morocco have immediately asserted their dominance. Their opening 2-0 victory over Comoros not only placed them at the top of the group but also extended a remarkable unbeaten run to 26 matches. The Atlas Lions displayed imperious control in that opener, recording 65.6% possession and a staggering 96.9% pass completion rate. This level of technical proficiency allows them to dictate the rhythm of matches completely, suffocating opponents and limiting their exposure to defensive danger.
Mali, by comparison, experienced a frustrating start with a draw against Zambia. While they showed resilience and created chances—including a missed penalty—they lacked the clinical edge to kill the game off, eventually conceding a stoppage-time equaliser. This inability to manage the final stages of a match stands in sharp contrast to Morocco’s relentless consistency. Furthermore, Morocco’s defensive record is elite; over a long sample of 31 matches, they concede an average of just 0.52 goals per game.
The tactical dynamic here heavily favours the Moroccans. With a midfield capable of retaining the ball at elite levels and an attack that generated 16 shots in their first game, they have the tools to force Mali into a reactive shell. Mali’s tendency to lack incision in the final third against organised blocks suggests they will struggle to break down a Moroccan defence that rarely gives away cheap goals. With momentum, superior technical stats, and the confidence of a historic unbeaten streak, Morocco look well-positioned to secure another three points and take firm control of the group.
Best bet: Morocco to win
🧪 Daily Super Double
For our Boxing Day double, we are backing two sides who possess overwhelming statistical advantages in their respective fixtures.
- Coventry City to Win: The league leaders are scoring for fun (53 goals) and have won seven straight home league games. They face a Swansea side with four consecutive away defeats. The discrepancy in home/away form is too large to ignore.
- Morocco to Win: With a 26-match unbeaten run and a pass completion rate touching 97% in their opener, Morocco are operating at a different level. Their defensive solidity makes them a very reliable selection against a Mali side that stuttered in their first game.
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