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THE DATA
Are Really Putting Their Money
Two datasets. Four markets. Some of the most discussed questions of the Premier League summer answered by where real money has gone — not punditry, not predictions. bet365’s customer betting data across global and UK markets, plus singles-only figures that strip out the accumulator noise and reveal what customers actually believe.
Arsenal, Then Everyone Else
Over 41% of all combined title bets — accumulators included — went on Arsenal globally and in the UK. That is more than double Manchester City’s share and reflects four consecutive seasons of 80-plus points. But strip out the accumulators and a very different picture emerges.
“It was hard not to be impressed by Arsenal’s demolition of Manchester City, and they are proving hugely popular with bet365 customers placing outright multiple wagers. However, those looking for a bigger price have been backing Manchester United and Chelsea, with the pair accounting for 17.1% and 16.7% of the singles business, respectively.”
— Steve Freeth, bet365The gap between Arsenal’s combined bets share and their singles share — from 41% to around 11% — is not a sign of doubt. It is a pricing effect. At a boosted 6/4, backing Arsenal as a standalone bet returns a modest sum. Inside a five-team accumulator, the same selection functions as a reliable structural leg rather than a value statement. The customers are identical; the format changes the maths. Coventry appearing at 5.59% of global singles at 2000/1 is a different kind of bet altogether — recreational rather than analytical, but still conspicuous enough to flag as the market’s most speculative thread.
The UK title singles market placing Spurs ahead of Arsenal is the headline divergence. UK punters are choosing price over probability in the standalone market, and that tells you something specific: the short-priced selections are being reserved for accumulator structures where they do the most work.
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Liverpool at Odds-On, Ignored by the Market
Arsenal and Chelsea lead the combined top four bets. In singles, Spurs dominate the UK with 36.7% and Chelsea lead globally at 38%. Liverpool, despite being priced at 4/9, are conspicuously unloved.
| Team | Global % | UK % | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 23.21% | 24.88% | 1/8 |
| Chelsea | 21.91% | 23.11% | 5/6 |
| Man United | 17.45% | 18.75% | 8/13 |
| Man City | 13.39% | 8.64% | 2/7 |
| Liverpool | 9.83% | 8.23% | 4/9 |
| Tottenham | 7.07% | 7.86% | 3/1 |
| Aston Villa | 2.03% | 2.31% | 4/1 |
“What is noticeable, both at home and abroad, is the unwillingness to back Liverpool at odds-on to finish in the Top 4 under Andoni Iraola. Spurs are certainly popular, having been backed from 11/2 to 3/1, and Chelsea are seeing similar support under Xabi Alonso.”
— Steve Freeth, bet365Liverpool’s 4/9 price implies an 82% chance of a top-four finish. A correct £10 single returns less than £12. At the same stake on Spurs at 3/1, a correct bet returns £40. Customers are not dismissing Liverpool — they are making a rational price comparison. Spurs backed in from 11/2 to 3/1 is the clearest evidence of genuine market movement, not just passive indifference to another option. Man City’s widest gap — 13.39% globally but only 8.64% in the UK for combined bets — runs through multiple markets and reflects a consistent pattern of UK customers being less willing to back City in any format this summer.
Newcastle’s Price Fell Off a Cliff
The single most striking data point across both documents. Newcastle’s relegation price tumbled from 40/1 to 8/1 over the summer. UK singles bettors responded with 46.8% of all relegation singles — nearly half the entire market in one selection.
“The three promoted teams are expected to find it difficult, but we have seen some eye-catching turnover away from the accumulator business. It has been a challenging summer for Newcastle, with significant changes both on and off the pitch, and we have seen noticeable UK interest in the Tyneside club, with their odds for the drop tumbling from 40/1 to 8/1, taking 46.8% of the UK market.”
“Manchester City struggled in the Community Shield and are having to deal with the loss of Pep Guardiola, Rodri, and Bernardo Silva. However, their prominence in the liabilities is likely due to the charges that still linger.”
— Steve Freeth, bet365The two most prominent relegation singles stories are driven by entirely different logic, and conflating them misreads the data. Newcastle’s 46.8% UK singles share is a footballing argument: Bruno Guimarães, Sandro Tonali and Anthony Gordon sold, Eddie Howe replaced by Matthias Jaissle, and a price that moved 32 points in response to those decisions rather than any match being played. It is a considered individual position from a customer base that has assessed a specific set of squad changes.
Man City’s relegation singles interest is not a football argument. Their sixth-place position in combined bets (5.54%) tells you what customers think of City’s actual Premier League prospects. Their prominence in singles — 24.3% globally, 23.9% in the UK — tells you what customers think of the 115 charges. Those are two very different markets sitting inside the same table.
Haaland Dominates Globally. UK Punters Are Looking Elsewhere.
In combined bets, Haaland is almost the entire market at 59%. In UK singles, he falls to fifth with just 5.5%. Joao Pedro, at 14/1, leads the UK singles with 20.2%. This is the widest UK/global divergence in either dataset.
Haaland’s dominance in combined bets (59.10%) is the accumulator effect in its purest form: 4/6 is cheap enough to slot into any multiple bet without dragging the overall return below an acceptable level. The UK singles figure of 5.5% tells the real story of individual customer sentiment — and it is the most striking number in either dataset. UK punters have concluded, as deliberate single bets, that Haaland is not worth backing at 4/6 under a new manager. Joao Pedro at 14/1 leading the UK singles market is the counter-argument: Chelsea’s striker under Xabi Alonso from a side that finished tenth last season, drawing one fifth of all UK Golden Boot singles. That kind of concentration on a long-price selection does not happen by accident.
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Bet at bet365 → New & eligible customers · T&Cs apply · 18+Frequently Asked Questions
The key questions about bet365’s 2026/27 Premier League customer betting data.
What does “share of bets” actually mean in this data?
Share of bets is the percentage of all wagers placed on a given market that went on each selection. It covers every bet type — accumulators, combination bets and singles together — and reflects total volume rather than money staked. It is a measure of how popular a selection is across all customers, not how much money has been placed on it.
Because accumulators dominate football betting by volume, the share of bets data is heavily influenced by which selections customers are using as accumulator legs. That is why it differs so significantly from the singles-only figures.
Why is Arsenal’s singles share so much lower than their combined bets share?
Arsenal are priced at a boosted 6/4 for the title — short enough that a correct single bet returns only £15 on a £10 stake. In a five-team accumulator, the same selection contributes structure and reliability without consuming much of the overall probability budget. Customers are using Arsenal as an accumulator leg, not as a standalone position.
In singles, customers hunting larger returns have moved to Man United at 7/1 and Chelsea at 8/1, which is exactly what Steve Freeth’s quote confirms. The customers are the same; the format changes the maths.
Why has Newcastle attracted so much interest in the relegation market?
Newcastle’s odds for relegation fell from 40/1 to 8/1 during the summer following the sale of Bruno Guimarães, Sandro Tonali and Anthony Gordon and the replacement of Eddie Howe with Matthias Jaissle. UK singles bettors responded with 46.8% of all UK relegation singles — the highest concentration of backing for any single selection in either dataset.
At 8/1, the price is large enough to justify a standalone punt, and the rationale — significant squad loss plus an untested manager — is specific and identifiable rather than speculative.
Is Man City’s relegation backing a football bet?
Largely no. Man City’s sixth-place position in combined relegation bets (5.54% globally) reflects what customers actually think about their Premier League prospects. Their much higher singles figures — 24.3% globally and 23.9% in the UK — reflect speculative positions on the outcome of the ongoing 115-charge investigation, as Steve Freeth explicitly confirmed.
These are two entirely separate markets sitting inside the same table. Treating Man City’s relegation singles as a footballing opinion would be a misreading of the data.
Why are UK customers avoiding Haaland as a Golden Boot single?
At 4/6, backing Haaland to win the Golden Boot as a single bet returns just £6.67 per £10 staked. UK customers have concluded that is insufficient — particularly in a season where a new manager replaces the coach who built the system Haaland thrived in. In the singles market, where customers are making individual considered decisions rather than filling accumulator structures, 5.5% is a dramatic retreat.
Joao Pedro at 14/1 returns £140 per £10. The price difference, not the player, is driving the UK singles distribution.
Why is Liverpool so unpopular in the top four singles market?
Liverpool are priced at 4/9 for a top-four finish — implying roughly an 82% probability. A correct £10 bet returns less than £12 in total. Tottenham at 3/1 return £40 on the same stake. Customers are not dismissing Liverpool’s quality; they are choosing where their money does more work.
As Steve Freeth noted, the unwillingness is particularly pronounced given the managerial change to Andoni Iraola, which adds uncertainty to a price that already offered very little return.
Does high betting interest mean a team is more likely to achieve the outcome?
No. Customer betting data tells you where money is going, not what will happen. High betting interest in an outcome typically results in the price shortening as the bookmaker takes more exposure — Newcastle falling from 40/1 to 8/1 is a direct consequence of that mechanism. By the time data is published, much of the movement it implies has already happened in the price.
The data is most valuable as context for understanding which narratives have already been priced in and which selections the market has already acted on.
When does the 2026/27 Premier League season begin?
The season begins on Friday 21 August 2026, with champions Arsenal at home to newly promoted Coventry City — the first of 380 fixtures running through to May 2027. All Premier League outright markets are available at bet365 ahead of kick-off.
Terms & Data Note
All betting data sourced from bet365 customer activity and reflects percentage share of bets placed across global and UK markets at time of compilation. Data does not constitute a prediction of results or a recommendation to bet. All odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Offer terms not provided — check bookmaker terms. New and eligible customers only. T&Cs apply. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org.
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