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Why this pick
Aston Villa have won their last three home FA Cup matches and are unbeaten in five of their last six in the competition. They recently beat Newcastle away on 25 January, and Eddie Howe’s side have lost four of their last six matches, conceding thirteen goals.
Why this pick
Liverpool dominate shot volume at Anfield (16.38 per game) and Brighton have conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches. However, Liverpool’s weakness in stopping chances and defending set pieces suggests a Brighton side strong in dead-ball situations can find the net during an open Anfield cup tie.
Why this pick
Lens are 2nd in the table and arrive with superior momentum, while Paris FC are winless in their last six home league matches. With Lens scoring significantly more and possessing better quality in transition, they are well-placed to secure three points against a goal-shy home side.
Why this pick
Inter sit top of Serie A after rattling off five consecutive wins and claiming 19 victories from 24 league matches this season, form that points to them being a level above a Juventus side with just one win in their last four. With Nicolò Barella and Hakan Çalhanoğlu back in the squad, the hosts look even stronger—so anything other than a Nerazzurri victory would be a real surprise.
This four-fold accumulator focuses on dominant home form and superior tactical structures. By backing elite sides like Inter and Villa, who boast strong recent records, and exploiting the defensive vulnerabilities of Brighton and Newcastle, the selection targets teams with clear momentum. It balances high-volume attacking data with proven defensive stability.
The anticipation of a weekend of football brings with it a unique energy, as traditional powerhouses and rising contenders prepare for a high-stakes Saturday. Across the continent, from the historic terraces of Villa Park and Anfield to the tactical battlegrounds of Ligue 1 and Serie A, the stage is set for a series of knockout dramas and pivotal league encounters. These fixtures are defined by the collision of contrasting styles: the relentless pressure of elite home sides versus the technical resilience of visiting underdogs. As the floodlights flicker on, every pass, transition, and set-piece becomes a potential turning point in what promises to be an afternoon and evening of high-intensity action.
Aston Villa vs Newcastle United
Aston Villa enter this cup tie with a formidable home record and a clear psychological advantage. Having defeated Newcastle 2-0 on their own turf just weeks ago, Unai Emery’s side knows exactly how to dismantle Eddie Howe’s defensive structure. Villa’s defensive solidity is a core pillar of their success, conceding under one goal per game in the league, while Newcastle have shown significant fragility. The Magpies have conceded 13 goals in their last six outings, including heavy losses to Liverpool and Brentford.
Villa’s central squeeze and ability to create chances through individual skill align perfectly with Newcastle’s struggle to defend counter-attacks. Even with the absence of John McGinn, the double pivot of Onana and Douglas Luiz provides a stable platform for Watkins and Rogers to exploit Newcastle’s high line. The home side’s superior structure and recent head-to-head dominance make them the authority in this matchup. While Newcastle possess significant aerial strength, winning an average of 16.3 duels per match, they have lost four of their last six fixtures across all competitions. This lack of momentum, combined with Villa winning their last three home FA Cup matches, suggests the home side are better equipped to navigate this tie.
Best bet: Aston Villa to Win
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Liverpool vs Brighton
Liverpool enter this cup tie as strong home favourites, driven by an attacking volume that Brighton’s recently porous defence—conceding seven goals in their last six outings—will struggle to contain. Arne Slot’s side lives in the opposition half, maintaining 60% possession and generating relentless waves of pressure through 63.51 dangerous attacks per Anfield tie. They dominate shot volume at home, averaging 16.38 per game, a frequency that eventually breaks down most defensive structures.
However, Liverpool’s soft underbelly is a clear reality; they are very weak at stopping opponents from creating chances and particularly vulnerable at set pieces. Brighton possess the technical skill and dead-ball proficiency to exploit this, and their passing rhythm often allows them to find openings even under heavy pressure. Having hit Manchester United for two goals in the previous round, the Seagulls have proven they can find the net in high-profile away fixtures. While Anfield’s momentum usually carries Liverpool to victory, their inability to protect leads comfortably invites a game state where both sides contribute to the scoreboard.
Best bet: Liverpool to Win & BTTS
Paris FC vs Lens
Lens arrive at Stade Jean-Bouin as the dominant force in this matchup. Currently sitting second in the table with 49 points, they have proven themselves to be one of the most consistent teams in the league, remaining unbeaten in 20 of their last 24 matches. Their clinical nature in both boxes—scoring 37 times while conceding just 17—contrasts sharply with the hosts’ current form. Paris FC are winless in their last six home league matches, a run defined by a significant goal drought where they have found the net only three times.
The tactical mismatch here is stark. Lens are very strong at stealing the ball from opponents and counter-attacking hard, which is a perfect recipe against a Paris FC side that tries to build patiently from the back. Furthermore, Lens possess an elite defensive record, conceding an average of just 0.81 goals per league game. Paris FC have failed to score in their last two matches and have only found the net in one of their last four, making it difficult to see how they breach the Lens backline. With Lens also possessing a strong rating for attacking set pieces—a zone where Paris FC are very weak—the visitors have multiple avenues to secure the three points.
Best bet: Lens to Win
Inter Milan vs Juventus
Inter Milan appear to be the most formidable force in Italy right now, and their recent form is a warning to the rest of Serie A. Missing out on the title last season has seemingly awoken the beast; the Nerazzurri have won five straight games, smashing in 17 goals and conceding only three. Even with a change in management, the transition to Christian Chivu has been seamless, as the side now holds an eight-point lead at the summit of the table. Their dominance is further bolstered by the returns of world-class midfielders Hakan Calhanoglu and Nicolo Barella, ensuring they can control the tempo of the Derby d’Italia.
In contrast, Juventus have regressed after a bright start to the year. They have won just one of their last four matches and suffered a heavy 3-0 defeat to Atalanta in their most recent away day. While Juve have improved under Luciano Spalletti, they remain significantly below the level of the hosts. Inter’s ability to combine high-scoring output with defensive rigour makes them a daunting prospect at the San Siro. Given Juventus’s recent defensive lapses and Inter’s relentless scoring average of over three goals per game during their current winning streak, the league leaders look set for another victory.
Best bet: Inter Milan to Win
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