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Why this pick
Arsenal are dominant at the Emirates with four straight home wins. While they are defensively sound, Chelsea’s attacking metrics and the clinical form of João Pedro suggest the visitors can find the net, even if the league leaders eventually overwhelm Rosenior’s structurally vulnerable backline.
Why this pick
Real Betis are in superb form at home, taking 23 points from 12 matches. Sevilla struggle on the road and have lost the last two derbies. With Betis aiming for the top four and scoring in nine straight games, they have the attacking edge to secure another win.
Why this pick
Celta Vigo arrive in blistering form with three straight wins and have avoided defeat in 13 of their last 15 matches. While Girona are tough at home, the head-to-head pattern shows four draws in the last six meetings, making the double chance a statistically robust selection for this clash.
Why this pick
Marseille looks far too short in the betting given their recent slump—just one win in their last six matches. In contrast, Lyon’s momentum remains formidable despite a stumble last weekend, having previously reeled off 13 straight wins. With six victories in their last eight on the road, the visitors offer excellent value in the Draw No Bet market.
This selection focuses on teams with superior tactical structures and domestic momentum. Arsenal and Real Betis boast formidable home records against defensively vulnerable rivals. We also lean on the remarkable consistency of Celta Vigo and the revitalised form of Lyon to navigate challenging away fixtures in high-pressure derby environments.
Inter Milan to Win and Over 2.5 Goals
Fixture: Cremonese vs Inter Milan
The distance between these two clubs in the current campaign is vast. Inter Milan travel to the Stadio Giovanni Zini as a formidable attacking force, having already registered 50 goals in just 22 league outings. Their offensive dominance is supported by a high-intensity approach, averaging 18.4 shots per match—more than double the output of their upcoming hosts. With 17 victories already secured and a flawless recent record of six consecutive away wins, the league leaders possess the necessary efficiency to break down a struggling defensive unit.
Cremonese, meanwhile, are in a period of sharp decline. They have failed to score in their last three league matches and have not recorded a single win in their previous six attempts. This lack of clinical edge, combined with an average of only 8.5 shots per game, makes it difficult for them to resist a side that typically enjoys nearly 60% of the ball. Inter Milan also tend to assert their authority early; their average time for a first goal is the 34th minute, whereas Cremonese often wait until the 50th minute for a breakthrough. If the visitors strike in the first half, the home side will likely be forced to abandon their defensive structure, creating more space for Inter Milan to add to the scoreline.
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Juventus to Win and Under 2.5 Goals
Fixture: Parma vs Juventus
Juventus arrive at the Stadio Ennio Tardini as a significantly improved defensive entity. Since adopting a more disciplined structure, they have prioritised solidity, conceding a mere eight goals in their last 13 league matches. This newfound defensive edge is the cornerstone of their current form, having kept 15 clean sheets across all competitions this year. They face a Parma side that is currently finding it almost impossible to find the back of the net. The hosts have failed to score in 48% of their matches this season and are currently enduring a 300-minute goal drought in the league.
While Parma are capable of maintaining a stubborn deep block—seen in their five consecutive home games featuring fewer than three goals—they lack the creative quality to hurt elite opposition on the break. Juventus, by contrast, control 57% of possession and average over 16 shots per game. This suggests the match will be played almost entirely in Parma’s defensive third. While the visitors have the individual skill to unlock a crowded box, their own focus on controlling the tempo and minimising risks makes a high-scoring blowout unlikely. A professional away win within a controlled scoreline is the most probable outcome.
Real Sociedad to Win
Fixture: Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad head into the latest Basque derby in exceptional form, having secured victories in each of their last four matches across all competitions. This run includes three consecutive league wins, showcasing a level of momentum that has propelled them into eighth place in the table. Even when forced to play with ten men in their last two league outings, they have managed to overcome their opponents, demonstrating a resilient and winning mentality that makes them dangerous regardless of match circumstances.
The situation for Athletic Bilbao is much more concerning. The Lions are currently 14th in the table and are navigating a significant injury crisis. Key personnel including Inaki Williams, Oihan Sancet, and Benat Prados are unavailable, while star winger Nico Williams remains a major doubt. These absences leave the home side depleted against an in-form rival. Furthermore, Athletic Bilbao are struggling with the fatigue of a demanding schedule, having recently seen their European journey end following a home defeat. Real Sociedad recorded a 3-2 victory in the reverse fixture earlier this season and, given the current disparity in fitness and form, they are well-placed to secure the double over their rivals.
Paris Saint-Germain to Win and Both Teams to Score
Fixture: Strasbourg vs Paris Saint-Germain
Paris Saint-Germain have finally reclaimed the summit of Ligue 1 and arrive at the Stade de la Meinau on a strong run of five consecutive league victories. However, their away form has frequently been characterized by narrow margins, with three of their last four wins on the road coming by a single goal. While they are the superior technical side, they face a Strasbourg team that has undergone a total transformation under new management. The hosts have won three competitive matches in a row by an aggregate score of 12-3, proving they have become one of the most dangerous attacking units in the division.
Strasbourg have scored multiple goals in nearly every match they have played in 2026 and have found the net in seven of their last eight outings. With Joaquin Panichelli already on 11 goals for the season, they possess the firepower to test a PSG defence that is missing key personnel due to injury. Historically, this has been a difficult trip for the Parisians; they lost this fixture 2-1 last season and Strasbourg have taken points in three of their last four home games against the champions. While PSG’s elite quality and title-winning experience should eventually see them secure the points, Strasbourg’s clinical form makes it highly probable that both teams will find the net.
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