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Why this pick
Zambia’s opening 1-1 draw against Mali showed they can remain competitive despite long periods without the ball. Their 82% pass accuracy and the presence of Patson Daka give them a technical and clinical advantage. Comoros, meanwhile, struggled to maintain their defensive shape in the second half against Morocco and failed to score. Given the importance of this fixture for progression, Zambia’s experience in navigating AFCON qualification and their ability to stay focused until the final whistle should be enough to overcome a Comoros side that lacks a consistent goal threat.
Why this pick
This selection is built on the contrasting momentum of both sides and their history of productive offensive displays when meeting. Sheffield United have won four of their last six league games and have a track record of scoring at least three goals in their recent encounters with Wrexham. While Wrexham are notoriously difficult to beat at the Racecourse Ground, their recent lack of wins and defensive absences—specifically in goal and at wing-back—leave them vulnerable to the visitors' superior possession and shot volume. Given both teams' balanced goal statistics, a high-scoring away win is the most logical outcome.
Why this pick
This selection relies on the consistent defensive data provided for Manchester United. Conceding 1.65 goals per game and keeping clean sheets in only 6% of matches indicates a systemic inability to shut opponents out. While Newcastle’s away scoring is lower, their strength at set pieces directly targets United’s noted weakness in defending dead-ball situations. Conversely, United average 1.82 goals per game and generate over 16 shots per match, suggesting that even without key players, they create enough volume to score at home. The data points to a game where neither defence is secure.
Why this pick
Morocco is currently the most statistically dominant team in the group, backed by a 26-match unbeaten run and a massive 65.6% possession rate in their opener. Their technical proficiency, highlighted by a 96.9% pass completion rate, allows them to dictate the tempo of every game. Mali showed resilience against Zambia but lacked the clinical finishing and defensive concentration required to see out a win. Facing a Moroccan side that scores 2.45 goals per game and concedes just 0.52, Mali will likely struggle to keep pace over 90 minutes.
This four-fold selection banks on statistical trends and current form. We back Zambia’s resilience in the AFCON, Sheffield United’s attacking power against a depleted Wrexham defence, the inevitability of goals at Old Trafford given United’s defensive porousness, and Morocco’s imperious 26-match unbeaten streak to continue against Mali.
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The Boxing Day football calendar is arguably the most anticipated date in the sporting diary, offering a relentless schedule that tests the depth and resolve of squads across the globe. This year, the festive feast extends beyond the traditional domestic leagues, with the Africa Cup of Nations adding a layer of international intensity to the usual Championship and Premier League drama.
Navigating such a packed fixture list requires a careful examination of the underlying narratives. From the Racecourse Ground to Old Trafford, and down to the heat of the African continent, teams are battling fatigue, injury crises, and the weight of expectation. Our analysis team has combed through the form guides and statistical profiles to construct a four-fold accumulator that balances home dominance, goal-scoring trends, and tournament momentum. Here is our expert breakdown for December 26.
Zambia vs Comoros
In Group A of the Africa Cup of Nations, the margins are already looking incredibly fine. Zambia enter this contest buoyed by a moment of significant psychological value: a 92nd-minute equaliser from Patson Daka against Mali in their opening fixture. That 1-1 draw demonstrated a resilience that is often the hallmark of teams that progress in tournament football. Despite not registering a shot until the 73rd minute in that match, Zambia proved they possess the individual quality to turn a game late on, a trait that will concern a Comoros side reeling from their own late collapse.
Comoros’ opener against Morocco was a tale of two distinct periods. They defended resolutely to reach half-time at 0-0, but their structure disintegrated shortly after the break, conceding twice in a nine-minute spell. While they managed to manage the game for 45 minutes, the inability to sustain that concentration for the full duration is a worry. Furthermore, Zambia’s statistical profile over a longer period suggests they are comfortable holding onto the ball, with an average pass accuracy of 82% compared to Comoros’ 79%.
Zambia’s reliance on high-value chances for strikers like Daka contrasts with Comoros’ struggle to recover once their defensive shell is broken. Although Comoros have had the edge in recent head-to-head meetings, the momentum from Zambia’s late rescue act, combined with Daka’s proven finishing ability at this level, suggests the Chipolopolo are better positioned to control the key moments of this match.
Best bet: Zambia to win
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Wrexham FC vs Sheffield United
Rationale This Championship clash at the Racecourse Ground has all the ingredients of a festive classic, primarily because both teams have forgotten how to keep a clean sheet. The historical precedent here is staggering; recent meetings between these sides have ended 4-2, 3-1, and 3-3. It is a fixture that seemingly refuses to be dull, and the current circumstances of both squads suggest this trend will continue.
Wrexham are currently navigating a defensive crisis. With first-choice goalkeeper Danny Ward sidelined due to a hand injury and Issa Kabore away on international duty, the hosts are missing vital components of their backline. This vulnerability is reflected in their season tally of 27 goals conceded in 22 games. However, they remain a formidable force at home, unbeaten in their last eight league matches at the Racecourse. Their attack is spearheaded by Kieffer Moore, a physical powerhouse who wins an average of 7.3 aerial duels per match, providing a direct route to goal that bypasses midfield and causes chaos in the opposition box.
Sheffield United arrive with superior form, having won four of their last six league games, including a 3-0 victory over Birmingham City. The Blades favour a possession-based game (52.3% average) and have racked up 170 corners, indicating they spend plenty of time in the final third. With attackers like Callum O’Hare and Tyrese Campbell contributing to a tally of 28 goals, they have the firepower to hurt Wrexham’s depleted defence. However, having conceded 31 times themselves, Sheffield United are far from watertight. The combination of Wrexham’s aerial threat and Sheffield United’s attacking momentum points towards an away win, but not without the hosts finding the net.
Best bet: Sheffield United to win and Both Teams to Score
Manchester United vs Newcastle
Rationale Ruben Amorim’s start to life at Old Trafford faces a significant test against Newcastle United, and the data points heavily towards a chaotic encounter rather than a tactical stalemate. Manchester United’s defensive metrics are frankly alarming; they are conceding an average of 1.65 goals per game and have managed to keep a clean sheet in only 6% of their league matches. This systemic fragility means that opponents almost invariably find a way to score, regardless of the venue.
The hosts are also dealing with the absence of their captain and creative hub, Bruno Fernandes, due to a soft tissue injury. However, despite his loss, United remain a high-volume shooting team, averaging over 16 shots per match and 1.82 goals per game. They create chances through sheer numbers, and in Matheus Cunha, they have a forward capable of moments of brilliance.
Newcastle travel to Manchester with a specific weapon that aligns perfectly with United’s weaknesses: set-pieces. The Magpies are statistically strong in aerial duels and attacking dead-ball situations, areas where United have been noted as “weak” defensively. With Nick Woltemade in form after a brace against Chelsea, Newcastle have the tools to breach the United backline. Both teams have shown a tendency to concede goals in the 81st-90th minute bracket, suggesting that fatigue and lapses in concentration contribute to late drama. Given United’s inability to shut teams out and Newcastle’s own away record of conceding 1.29 goals per game, a clean sheet for either side looks highly improbable.
Best bet: Both Teams to Score — Yes
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Morocco vs Mali
Rationale If there is a team that has set the standard in the early stages of the Africa Cup of Nations, it is Morocco. The Atlas Lions delivered a masterclass in control during their opening 2-0 victory over Comoros, extending their remarkable unbeaten run to 26 matches. The statistics from that opener are imperious: 65.6% possession and a 96.9% pass success rate. These figures describe a team that doesn’t just beat opponents; it suffocates them by denying them the ball, dictating the tempo, and waiting for the inevitable opening.
Mali, conversely, enter this match with questions hanging over their ability to manage a game. Their 1-1 draw with Zambia was marred by a missed penalty in the first half and a failure to hold onto a lead late in the second. While they are a solid outfit, conceding a stoppage-time equaliser points to lapses in concentration that Morocco are ruthless enough to punish. Furthermore, Mali’s attack, while capable of creating chances, lacks the clinical edge displayed by Morocco’s front line, which includes scorers like Brahim Díaz and Ayoub El Kaabi.
Defensively, Morocco are incredibly stingy. Over a 31-match sample size, they have conceded an average of just 0.52 goals per game. Facing a Mali side that struggled to put Zambia away despite creating opportunities, Morocco’s combination of elite ball retention and defensive solidity makes them clear favourites. They have the technical quality to dominate the midfield battle and the defensive organization to shut down Mali’s response.
Best bet: Morocco to win
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