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Why this pick
Bayern Munich are heavy favorites with 13 wins from 15 games and a record-breaking 55 goals scored. Their attacking metrics are peerless, but they have shown defensive vulnerability, including a recent 2-2 home draw against Mainz. Wolfsburg have a specific knack for scoring in this fixture, having done so in eight consecutive meetings. Given Bayern’s weakness in aerial duels and Wolfsburg’s strength in set pieces and through balls, the visitors are well-placed to score even in defeat. This market offers far better value than the outright home win.
Why this pick
Rangers enter this match with four consecutive league wins and 41 points, demonstrating a level of consistency Aberdeen cannot currently match. The hosts have lost five of their last six games and possess a defense that is very weak in aerial duels and prone to individual mistakes. Rangers’ high possession stats and technical quality mean they should dominate the ball and create the higher volume of chances. While the atmosphere at Pittodrie will be intense, the tactical mismatches regarding set-piece defense and territorial control strongly favor the visiting side.
Why this pick
Both teams exhibit a high scoring frequency, with United netting in 86% of games and Brighton in 79%. United’s defense is notably vulnerable to counter-attacks and long shots, areas where Brighton excels. The previous meeting ended 4-2, and with both teams missing defensive starters, a high-scoring exchange is highly probable.
Why this pick
This selection is based on the significant defensive vulnerabilities shown by both clubs, who have combined for only five clean sheets in 44 total matches this term. Nantes are very strong on the counter but very weak at defending the wings, which is exactly where Nice excel. Conversely, Nice struggle to defend the transitions that Nantes thrive on. With both teams also sharing a weakness in defending set pieces, the tactical environment is highly conducive to goals at both ends, even if their finishing has occasionally been inconsistent in league play.
This four-fold backs superior quality and tactical mismatches. We rely on PSG and Inter’s overwhelming home attacks to outscore plucky visitors, while Atlético Madrid’s counter-attacking strength should ruthlessly expose Real Sociedad. Finally, Famalicão’s defensive solidity offers huge value against a leaky Alverca side.
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The Boxing Day football calendar is arguably the most anticipated date in the sporting diary, offering a relentless schedule that tests the depth and resolve of squads across the globe. This year, the festive feast extends beyond the traditional domestic leagues, with the Africa Cup of Nations adding a layer of international intensity to the usual Championship and Premier League drama.
Navigating such a packed fixture list requires a careful examination of the underlying narratives. From the Racecourse Ground to Old Trafford, and down to the heat of the African continent, teams are battling fatigue, injury crises, and the weight of expectation. Our analysis team has combed through the form guides and statistical profiles to construct a four-fold accumulator that balances home dominance, goal-scoring trends, and tournament momentum. Here is our expert breakdown for December 26.
Zambia vs Comoros
In Group A of the Africa Cup of Nations, the margins are already looking incredibly fine. Zambia enter this contest buoyed by a moment of significant psychological value: a 92nd-minute equaliser from Patson Daka against Mali in their opening fixture. That 1-1 draw demonstrated a resilience that is often the hallmark of teams that progress in tournament football. Despite not registering a shot until the 73rd minute in that match, Zambia proved they possess the individual quality to turn a game late on, a trait that will concern a Comoros side reeling from their own late collapse.
Comoros’ opener against Morocco was a tale of two distinct periods. They defended resolutely to reach half-time at 0-0, but their structure disintegrated shortly after the break, conceding twice in a nine-minute spell. While they managed to manage the game for 45 minutes, the inability to sustain that concentration for the full duration is a worry. Furthermore, Zambia’s statistical profile over a longer period suggests they are comfortable holding onto the ball, with an average pass accuracy of 82% compared to Comoros’ 79%.
Zambia’s reliance on high-value chances for strikers like Daka contrasts with Comoros’ struggle to recover once their defensive shell is broken. Although Comoros have had the edge in recent head-to-head meetings, the momentum from Zambia’s late rescue act, combined with Daka’s proven finishing ability at this level, suggests the Chipolopolo are better positioned to control the key moments of this match.
Best bet: Zambia to win
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Wrexham FC vs Sheffield United
Rationale This Championship clash at the Racecourse Ground has all the ingredients of a festive classic, primarily because both teams have forgotten how to keep a clean sheet. The historical precedent here is staggering; recent meetings between these sides have ended 4-2, 3-1, and 3-3. It is a fixture that seemingly refuses to be dull, and the current circumstances of both squads suggest this trend will continue.
Wrexham are currently navigating a defensive crisis. With first-choice goalkeeper Danny Ward sidelined due to a hand injury and Issa Kabore away on international duty, the hosts are missing vital components of their backline. This vulnerability is reflected in their season tally of 27 goals conceded in 22 games. However, they remain a formidable force at home, unbeaten in their last eight league matches at the Racecourse. Their attack is spearheaded by Kieffer Moore, a physical powerhouse who wins an average of 7.3 aerial duels per match, providing a direct route to goal that bypasses midfield and causes chaos in the opposition box.
Sheffield United arrive with superior form, having won four of their last six league games, including a 3-0 victory over Birmingham City. The Blades favour a possession-based game (52.3% average) and have racked up 170 corners, indicating they spend plenty of time in the final third. With attackers like Callum O’Hare and Tyrese Campbell contributing to a tally of 28 goals, they have the firepower to hurt Wrexham’s depleted defence. However, having conceded 31 times themselves, Sheffield United are far from watertight. The combination of Wrexham’s aerial threat and Sheffield United’s attacking momentum points towards an away win, but not without the hosts finding the net.
Best bet: Sheffield United to win and Both Teams to Score
Manchester United vs Newcastle
Rationale Ruben Amorim’s start to life at Old Trafford faces a significant test against Newcastle United, and the data points heavily towards a chaotic encounter rather than a tactical stalemate. Manchester United’s defensive metrics are frankly alarming; they are conceding an average of 1.65 goals per game and have managed to keep a clean sheet in only 6% of their league matches. This systemic fragility means that opponents almost invariably find a way to score, regardless of the venue.
The hosts are also dealing with the absence of their captain and creative hub, Bruno Fernandes, due to a soft tissue injury. However, despite his loss, United remain a high-volume shooting team, averaging over 16 shots per match and 1.82 goals per game. They create chances through sheer numbers, and in Matheus Cunha, they have a forward capable of moments of brilliance.
Newcastle travel to Manchester with a specific weapon that aligns perfectly with United’s weaknesses: set-pieces. The Magpies are statistically strong in aerial duels and attacking dead-ball situations, areas where United have been noted as “weak” defensively. With Nick Woltemade in form after a brace against Chelsea, Newcastle have the tools to breach the United backline. Both teams have shown a tendency to concede goals in the 81st-90th minute bracket, suggesting that fatigue and lapses in concentration contribute to late drama. Given United’s inability to shut teams out and Newcastle’s own away record of conceding 1.29 goals per game, a clean sheet for either side looks highly improbable.
Best bet: Both Teams to Score — Yes
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Morocco vs Mali
Rationale If there is a team that has set the standard in the early stages of the Africa Cup of Nations, it is Morocco. The Atlas Lions delivered a masterclass in control during their opening 2-0 victory over Comoros, extending their remarkable unbeaten run to 26 matches. The statistics from that opener are imperious: 65.6% possession and a 96.9% pass success rate. These figures describe a team that doesn’t just beat opponents; it suffocates them by denying them the ball, dictating the tempo, and waiting for the inevitable opening.
Mali, conversely, enter this match with questions hanging over their ability to manage a game. Their 1-1 draw with Zambia was marred by a missed penalty in the first half and a failure to hold onto a lead late in the second. While they are a solid outfit, conceding a stoppage-time equaliser points to lapses in concentration that Morocco are ruthless enough to punish. Furthermore, Mali’s attack, while capable of creating chances, lacks the clinical edge displayed by Morocco’s front line, which includes scorers like Brahim Díaz and Ayoub El Kaabi.
Defensively, Morocco are incredibly stingy. Over a 31-match sample size, they have conceded an average of just 0.52 goals per game. Facing a Mali side that struggled to put Zambia away despite creating opportunities, Morocco’s combination of elite ball retention and defensive solidity makes them clear favourites. They have the technical quality to dominate the midfield battle and the defensive organization to shut down Mali’s response.
Best bet: Morocco to win
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