bet365
BetMGM
William Hill
Betfred
BetUK
LiveScoreBet
10Bet
Virgin Bet
Will Fiorentina’s technical control overcome Cremonese’s desperate search for a home goal? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
To use the Live Streaming service you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Geo location and live streaming rules apply.
Read Rationale ▾
Fiorentina’s superior control and shot volume make them strong favourites. They average 52.9% possession compared to Cremonese’s 45.1%. With the home side failing to score in four consecutive home matches and missing key defender Baschirotto, Fiorentina’s technical midfield should dictate the tempo and secure the points.
Read Rationale ▾
Cremonese’s blunt attack suggests they will struggle to find the net at home again. Fiorentina’s defensive record of 9 clean sheets and their ability to create through balls against a vulnerable home backline makes a 2-0 away victory a highly plausible outcome in this survival battle.
Readers’ Tip
Vote your pick — quick & anonymous
Terms & Conditions (tap to view)
Cremonese host Fiorentina in a huge Serie A survival scrap, with one point separating the sides before a tense night at Stadio Zini.
Cremonese vs Fiorentina — bet365 Market Snapshot
Key survival markets and sample bet365 prices based on match analytics.
Fiorentina arrive with better form and superior possession (52.9%), making them strong favourites against a sliding Cremonese side.
Cremonese’s failure to score in four home games suggests a low-scoring affair as survival pressure mounts at the Zini.
Fiorentina have taken seven points from their last five league matches, making a controlled away win the likely path.
Fiorentina’s 52.9% possession and 84.9% pass success compared to Cremonese’s lower metrics point to a game of away dominance.
Match Overview
- Home drought: Cremonese have failed to score in their last four home Serie A matches, and that blunt edge has turned Stadio Giovanni Zini from a launchpad into a place of growing tension.
- One-point pressure: Just one point separates 18th-placed Cremonese and 17th-placed Fiorentina, turning this fixture into a sharp, direct fight for breathing space near the bottom.
- Control gap: Fiorentina average 13.6 shots per game, 52.9% possession and 84.9% pass success, while Cremonese sit at 9.1 shots, 45.1% possession and 77.5% pass success.
Attacking Volume: Shots per Match
A comparison of offensive output shows a significant gap in the frequency of goal attempts between the two sides.
The home side struggle to generate regular shooting opportunities, resulting in a low goal return this season.
Fiorentina’s style creates a higher volume of chances, reflecting their more dominant technical approach.
Technical Control: Pass Success Rate
The accuracy in possession highlights which team is better equipped to sustain pressure during the 90 minutes.
Lower accuracy suggests a reliance on longer balls or higher disruption rather than patient build-up play.
Superior pass accuracy allows them to dictate the rhythm and move the ball cleanly through the thirds.
This is a survival fight with no room for softness. Cremonese and Fiorentina meet at Stadio Giovanni Zini at 19:45, split by a single point and dragged into the same ugly battle near the bottom of Serie A.
The pressure lands differently on each side. Davide Nicola’s Cremonese are sliding badly, beaten in their last three league games and winless in six, while Paolo Vanoli’s Fiorentina arrive with a little more life after taking seven points from their last five league matches. Even so, the margin is tiny, the stakes are heavy, and there is unfinished business here too: Fiorentina won the reverse fixture 1-0 and have taken the upper hand in recent meetings.
This should feel tense from the first whistle. One side needs a response. The other needs to prove it can handle the moment.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Cremonese Team News
- Federico Baschirotto is out with muscular problems until 17 March 2026.
- Warren Bondo is unavailable with an unknown injury.
- Giuseppe Pezzella is suspended after a red card and is out until 17 March 2026.
- Faris Moumbagna is listed with muscle fatigue.
Fiorentina Team News
No injuries or suspensions are listed.
Probable Cremonese Lineup
Audero, Terracciano, Bianchetti, Luperto, Barbieri, Thorsby, Maleh, Vandeputte, Zerbin, Vardy, Bonazzoli
Probable Fiorentina Lineup
De Gea, Dodô, Pongracic, Ranieri, Gosens, Brescianini, Fagioli, Mandragora, Parisi, Piccoli, Gudmundsson
Strategic Implications
- Baschirotto’s absence hurts. He has been one of Cremonese’s steadiest defenders, and losing him weakens a back line already under strain.
- Pezzella missing out removes another natural defensive option, which matters against a side that likes to move the ball quickly through central areas.
- Cremonese still have a direct route through Jamie Vardy and Federico Bonazzoli, but the midfield needs to feed them earlier and with more quality.
- Fiorentina’s likely side looks more balanced on paper, with Mandragora, Fagioli and Gudmundsson offering cleaner links between midfield and attack.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Cremonese | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 18th | 17th |
| Points | 24 | 25 |
| Serie A record | 5W, 9D, 14L | 5W, 10D, 13L |
| Goals scored | 22 | 30 |
| Goals conceded | 40 | 42 |
| Shots per game | 9.1 | 13.6 |
| Possession | 45.1% | 52.9% |
| Pass success | 77.5% | 84.9% |
| Aerials won | 16.4 | 12.0 |
| Recent last six | D1 L5 | W3 D1 L2 |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 9 |
The contrast is clear. Fiorentina should have more of the ball, pass it better and create more volume around the box. Cremonese are more forceful in the air, but they do not build enough pressure consistently and too often leave their attack starved. That points to a game where Fiorentina try to dictate the rhythm, while Cremonese look to disrupt it, go longer, cross early and turn it into a scrap.
Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Fiorentina’s Control
This fixture looks set to run through Fiorentina’s control of possession. They average more passes, more possession and far more shots per game, and their style leans into central attacks, crosses and through balls. That should put Mandragora, Fagioli and Brescianini right at the heart of the contest.
If Fiorentina settle early, they can drag Cremonese side to side and open passing lanes between the lines. That matters because Cremonese are vulnerable in several key areas: they struggle to keep possession, they make individual errors, and they are weak against through balls, wide attacks and long shots. Those are not minor cracks. Those are the fault lines of the whole match.
Cremonese’s Disruptive Strategy
Cremonese’s best route is not to play pretty. It is to make this rough, direct and awkward. They attack through the middle, hit long balls, use width and cross often, so the game plan should be obvious: get the ball forward quickly, squeeze the pitch, and make Vardy and Bonazzoli attack second balls and loose touches.
There is logic in that. Fiorentina are very weak in aerial duels and weak at defending set pieces, so Cremonese do have a path to trouble them. Thorsby can also be important here. His shot volume and aerial presence give the home side another way to force pressure around the box. But the problem is obvious too. Cremonese have scored only 22 league goals all season and have gone four straight home league games without scoring. They can get the ball into useful areas, yet the final action keeps letting them down.
Key Battle Grounds
Fiorentina are strongest when they create chances through balls, and Cremonese are weak at defending exactly that kind of movement. That makes the runs of Gudmundsson, Piccoli and the support from Parisi especially dangerous.
The home side cannot afford loose spacing between midfield and defence. If those gaps open, Fiorentina can move through them quickly and turn a tense game into a chase. Still, Fiorentina have their own flaws. They are weak at finishing chances, weak at defending set pieces and very weak at protecting a lead. So even if they control long spells, this is not a side that kills games cleanly. That keeps the door open for Cremonese if they stay alive deep into the second half.
The Weight of the First Goal
The opening goal feels massive here. Cremonese do not have the attacking rhythm to play from behind with comfort, especially with their recent home scoring record. Fiorentina, though, have their own issue once ahead, because protecting a lead has been a real weakness.
So the first goal may not finish the match, but it will shape the nerves. If Fiorentina score first, they can lean into possession. If Cremonese strike first, the crowd will lift and the game could become messy, emotional and much harder to control.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces: Cremonese need to attack them hard because Fiorentina are weak in that area.
- Through balls into the inside channels: Fiorentina have the profile to hurt Cremonese there all night.
- Baschirotto’s absence: The home defence loses a regular presence and that could show under pressure.
- The wide deliveries: Cremonese like to cross often, while Fiorentina are vulnerable in the air.
- Midfield discipline: Both teams commit fouls, and giving away free kicks in dangerous areas could swing a tight game.
Game-State Scenarios
For Cremonese, the risk is brutal: another flat attacking display, another long spell without the ball, and another night where pressure turns into panic. For Fiorentina, the danger is different. They can control plenty and still waste good moments, and if they fail to turn that control into goals, this could become tense, stretched and deeply uncomfortable late on. That is why this fixture feels so live. Both teams have clear weaknesses, both teams need points badly, and neither side has much margin for error.
Market Explainer 📊
Match Result (1X2)
The Match Result market is a selection on the final outcome after 90 minutes: Home Win, Draw, or Away Win. It is the most straightforward market for those focusing on overall team form and technical superiority.
Pros: High liquidity and clear outcomes. Cons: Low margins in high-pressure matches where survival is at stake.
Correct Score
This market requires predicting the exact final scoreline. Because it is harder to predict, it offers higher prices but carries more volatility due to late goals or game-state shifts.
Pros: Excellent price potential. Cons: Highly sensitive to single moments of defensive error or clinical finishing.
Fiorentina to Win: Main Rationale 🎯
Fiorentina arrive at Stadio Giovanni Zini with a clear technical advantage that should be the deciding factor in this survival fight. When analysing the control gap, Fiorentina’s average of 52.9% possession and a pass success rate of 84.9% suggests they will own the ball for long spells. Cremonese, meanwhile, sit at 45.1% possession and have struggled significantly to build pressure, having failed to score in their last four home Serie A matches. This bluntness at home creates a psychological hurdle for the hosts that is hard to overcome under survival pressure.
Tactical Indicators ⚔️
- Fiorentina average 13.6 shots per game compared to Cremonese’s 9.1 attempts.
- The absence of Federico Baschirotto weakens a home defence already missing the suspended Pezzella.
- Fiorentina have taken seven points from their last five games, showing superior momentum.
Risk Factor: Fiorentina are noted as being weak at protecting a lead and finishing chances, which could leave the door open if they fail to be clinical.
Correct Score 0-2: Rationale 🎯
A 2-0 victory for the visitors aligns with the statistical trends of both teams. Cremonese’s recent home record is the primary driver; four straight games without a goal at the Zini indicates a fundamental struggle to break down organised defences. Fiorentina possess the defensive stability required to maintain a clean sheet, having recorded 9 clean sheets this season. With Fiorentina likely to use through balls to exploit Cremonese’s known weakness in that area, a multi-goal margin is highly plausible as the hosts are forced to chase the game late on.
Risk Factor: Defensive errors or individual lapses in the Fiorentina backline could ruin clean sheet prospects despite the host’s lack of form.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Averaging 84.9% pass success to find runners like Gudmundsson in central channels.
Vulnerable to vertical passes, compounded by the absence of lead defender Baschirotto.
Questions & Answers ⊕
⊕ What is a Match Result bet in Serie A?
A Match Result bet is a selection on whether the game ends as a home win, an away win, or a draw. In this fixture, it means choosing between Cremonese, Fiorentina, or the stalemate.
⊕ Why is Fiorentina favoured in the predictions?
Fiorentina are favoured due to their superior possession control and Cremonese’s inability to score at home. The tactical gap in passing accuracy and shot volume gives the visitors the upper hand.
⊕ What does a Correct Score 0-2 bet mean?
A Correct Score 0-2 bet means you are predicting Fiorentina to win the match exactly 2-0. No other scoreline, such as 0-1 or 1-2, would result in a successful selection.
⊕ How does Baschirotto’s injury affect the game?
Federico Baschirotto’s injury removes a regular, steady presence from the Cremonese back line. This weakens their defensive structure against a Fiorentina side that creates high volumes of shots.
⊕ What is the significance of the 17:45 kickoff time?
The 19:45 UK kickoff time marks a primetime evening slot for this survival battle. The atmosphere at Stadio Giovanni Zini will be high-pressure as both teams fight to avoid the drop.
⊕ Are Cremonese strong at home?
Cremonese have struggled at home recently, failing to score in their last four matches at the Zini. This drought has contributed to their slide into the bottom three.
⊕ What is the “Tale of the Tape” comparison?
The Tale of the Tape compares key metrics like league position, goals scored, and possession. It shows Fiorentina leading in most technical categories, while Cremonese lead in aerial duels won.
⊕ Can Cremonese exploit Fiorentina’s weaknesses?
Cremonese can exploit Fiorentina’s weakness in aerial duels and set-piece defence. By hitting long balls and crossing early, they aim to disrupt the visitors’ technical rhythm.
18+ | GambleAware | T&Cs apply. Please gamble responsibly. Set a budget, use deposit limits, and stop when it’s not fun anymore.
Last Odds Update: Feb 10, 14:20 GMT | Editorial Policy
