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Will Conte’s Napoli control the Derby del Sole, or can Gasperini’s Roma steal the big moments in Naples? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Read Rationale ▾
Roma have seen Under 2.5 goals in their last seven Serie A matches, boasting the league’s best defence with only 14 conceded. Napoli’s significant attacking absences, including De Bruyne and Neres, further suggest a low-scoring tactical battle at the Stadio Maradona this Sunday night.
Read Rationale ▾
With Napoli unbeaten in 22 home matches but severely depleted by injuries to key creative outlets, a stalemate is highly plausible. Roma’s defensive control and recent under 2.5 streak point towards a tight 1-1 scoreline, reflecting the narrow three-point gap between these two top-five sides.
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Napoli host Roma at Stadio Maradona with third place on the line in a high-stakes Derby del Sole. With both sides battling for Champions League positioning, this clash promises tight margins under the lights.
Napoli vs Roma — bet365 Market Snapshot
Key statistical market analysis for the Derby del Sole.
Napoli’s 22-match unbeaten home run makes them favourites, though Roma’s elite defensive record keeps the draw and away prices competitive.
Roma’s streak of seven straight matches under 2.5 goals highlights a controlled tactical approach likely to continue in Naples.
A 1-1 draw aligns with the points gap and Roma’s league-leading defensive record of just 14 goals conceded.
Roma have recorded 14 clean sheets across all competitions, showcasing the resilience built under Gasperini’s disciplined tactical system.
Match Preview
- Home Fortress Energy: Napoli are unbeaten in 22 straight home Serie A matches, and they’ve avoided defeat in 41 of their last 47 league games.
- Fine Margins at the Top: Napoli sit 3rd on 49 points with 36 goals scored, while Roma are 5th on 46 points with a league-best-looking defence of 14 conceded.
- Low-Scoring Pattern: Roma’s last seven Serie A matches have all finished under 2.5 goals, and they’ve kept 14 clean sheets across 33 games.
Defensive Discipline: Goals Conceded per Game
A comparison of defensive stability between the two sides across the league campaign.
Napoli have conceded 23 goals in 24 matches, maintaining a sub-one average despite defensive injuries.
With just 14 goals conceded in 24 games, Roma possess the statistically superior backline in Serie A.
Clean Sheet Consistency
Derby del Sole, under the lights in Naples, and the stakes are loud. Napoli are third with 49 points, Roma are fifth with 46 — and Antonio Conte knows exactly what another setback would do to the mood, and to the table. Napoli’s midweek cup exit on penalties against Como stung, and it came with damage: Juan Jesus sent off, and Scott McTominay limping off in Genoa last week before Napoli still squeezed out a 3-2 win.
Roma arrive with momentum of their own. They’ve taken three wins from their last six across competitions, and that 2-0 over Cagliari keeps them right in the hunt. Kick-off is 19:45 at a chilly 10° in the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona — and this one has “tight margins” written all over it.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Napoli Team News
Napoli absences: David Neres (ankle surgery, out until 04/04/2026), Giovanni Di Lorenzo (knee injury, out until 30/04/2026), Frank Anguissa (back problems, out until 08/03/2026), Kevin De Bruyne (hamstring injury, out until 01/04/2026).
Roma Team News
Roma absences: None listed.
Probable Lineups
Napoli: Milinkovic-Savic; Beukema, Rrahmani, Buongiorno; Politano, Lobotka, McTominay, Spinazzola; Vergara, Elmas; Højlund
Roma: Svilar; Mancini, Ndicka, Ghilardi; Celik, Cristante, Pisilli, Wesley; Soulé, Dybala; Malen
Tactical Analysis
Napoli’s list of absences is a punch to the spine of the team — Di Lorenzo and De Bruyne missing strips away leadership and control, while Anguissa being out removes a big ball-winning engine. It puts more weight on Lobotka to keep the tempo clean and on McTominay to drive the midfield battle if he’s fit enough to start. Roma look settled: a back three with Mancini setting the edge, and a front line that can turn one touch into danger. If Napoli’s wing-backs get caught high, Soulé and Dybala have the tools to thread the needle quickly.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Napoli | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 5th |
| Points | 49 | 46 |
| Serie A matches | 24 | 24 |
| Goals scored | 36 | 29 |
| Goals conceded | 23 | 14 |
| Shots per game | 13.2 | 13.7 |
| Possession | 57.5% | 58.0% |
| Pass completion | 86.2% | 83.7% |
| Clean sheets | 11 | 14 |
This isn’t a classic “possession vs counter” split — both sides want the ball and both like to work in the opposition half. The difference is how they protect themselves when things break. Roma’s numbers scream control in defence — 14 conceded in the league, and a steady run of low-scoring league games — while Napoli’s edge comes from sharper finishing and a cleaner pass game. Expect spells of chess. Then expect one phase of chaos to decide whether it’s a clean sheet night or a scramble.
Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Napoli’s pressure: wing-backs, short passes, and the right-side punch
Conte’s Napoli play with short passes, control territory, and like attacking down the right. That points straight to Politano being a key outlet, with Lobotka feeding angles and McTominay arriving as the midfield runner who turns neat possession into penalty-box presence. Napoli’s strengths are clear: they’re strong at finishing, strong at through balls, and strong at defending set pieces. If they get Roma pinned, you’ll see quick switches into the wing-back lanes, then a sudden vertical ball into the feet of Rasmus Højlund. He’s got 8 league goals, and Napoli will want him attacking the near-post and living on the last shoulder. The worry? Napoli are weak defending against through balls and skillful players — and Roma have plenty of both in the spaces behind midfield.
Roma’s edge: defensive control, then the killer touch
Roma are built to manage game state. They’re very strong protecting the lead, strong on set-piece defending, and strong in aerial duels — which matters at Stadio Maradona when the home side starts throwing bodies forward. In possession, Roma also want to control the opposition half, but their real threat is the quality between the lines. Paulo Dybala plus Matías Soulé is a pairing that can pull defenders out of shape with a single feint. And with Donyell Malen in the nine role here, there’s a direct, aggressive sprint threat behind Napoli’s line. The tactical pinch-point is Napoli’s wing-backs versus Roma’s wide outlets. If Spinazzola and Politano dominate territory, Roma get shoved back. If Roma drag those wing-backs into deep defending, Napoli’s build-up loses its bite — and that’s when Roma’s counter-press and quick combinations can turn one turnover into a shot.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set-piece stress test: Napoli are strong defending set pieces, and Roma are strong defending them too — so the first well-worked routine could feel like gold dust.
- Midfield durability: Napoli’s injuries mean responsibility piles onto Lobotka and McTominay. If that axis gets outnumbered, Napoli’s control game starts to wobble.
- Box efficiency: Napoli score 36 in 24 league matches, Roma have conceded only 14. When the chance arrives, it has to be clean.
- The Dybala zone: Give Dybala pockets around the edge of the box and Napoli’s weakness against skilful players becomes a live issue.
What Could Go Wrong?
If Napoli chase the match too early, they risk opening the exact spaces Roma want — the channels for through balls and the gaps for quick one-twos. And if Roma nick the first goal, they’ve shown they can shut games down: under 2.5 goals in seven straight league matches isn’t an accident, it’s a plan.
📊 Market Explainer
Over/Under Goals
This market involves predicting whether the total number of goals in a match will be above or below a specific figure, most commonly 2.5. If you select Under 2.5, you are betting on 0, 1, or 2 goals being scored in total.
Pros: Suited for cagey tactical battles. Cons: Early goals can drastically alter the volatility.
Correct Score
A higher-risk market where you must predict the exact final scoreline. Because it requires precision, the prices are typically much higher than match result or total goals markets.
Pros: Significant price potential. Cons: High volatility; a single late goal ruins the bet.
🎯 Under 2.5 Goals Rationale
Napoli and Roma arrive at the Stadio Maradona separated by just three points, suggesting a tactical standoff where neither side can afford a defeat. Roma’s defensive record is the primary driver for this selection; they have conceded only 14 goals in 24 league matches, the best record in the division. Furthermore, their last seven Serie A fixtures have all produced fewer than three goals, reflecting a consistent pattern of low-scoring, controlled football under Gasperini.
Napoli’s current circumstances further support a low-scoring game. Antonio Conte is dealing with a significant injury crisis that has removed key creative components from his side. The absence of Kevin De Bruyne and David Neres strips away a massive portion of Napoli’s chance creation and transitional threat. With Frank Anguissa also missing, the midfield battle is likely to become more attritional than expansive. Napoli have kept 11 clean sheets themselves, and against a Roma side that prioritises defensive structure, the chances of a high-scoring blowout appear slim.
Tactical Indicators:
- Roma have seen Under 2.5 goals in 7 consecutive league games.
- Napoli are missing De Bruyne and Neres, their primary creative outlets.
- Roma boast the league’s best defence with only 14 goals conceded.
Risk Factor: An early goal could force Napoli to open up despite their missing personnel, potentially increasing the match tempo.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Unbeaten in 22 home matches. They control territory well at the Maradona.
Vulnerable if Dybala and Soulé are isolated by Napoli’s short-passing control.
⚔️ 1-1 Correct Score Rationale
Predicting a 1-1 draw accounts for both sides’ relative strengths and current weaknesses. Napoli have an incredible home record, remaining unbeaten in 22 straight matches at the Stadio Maradona. However, their injury list includes their captain Di Lorenzo and their best ball-winner Anguissa, which naturally diminishes their ability to completely dominate a top-five opponent like Roma. Without De Bruyne to unlock the door, Napoli may find it difficult to score more than once against a Roma backline that has conceded only 14 times all season.
Roma have the individual quality in Dybala and Soulé to exploit Napoli’s known weakness against skillful players. Even in a game where Roma focus on defensive management, their counter-attacking efficiency makes a goal highly probable. Given that seven of Roma’s recent games have been low-scoring and Napoli have avoided defeat in 41 of their last 47 league games, a competitive stalemate where both teams find the net once represents the most logical outcome for this high-stakes meeting.
Risk Factor: Roma’s clinical nature on the break could result in a 1-0 away win if Napoli’s depleted midfield fails to track runners.
⊕ Interactive Q&A
⊕ What does Under 2.5 Goals mean in this match?
Under 2.5 Goals means you are betting on 2 or fewer goals in total.
If the game ends 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0, or 0-2, the bet is successful. It is a popular choice for tactical Italian matches where defences often dominate.
⊕ Why is a 1-1 draw considered a strong possibility?
A 1-1 draw reflects Napoli’s home resilience vs Roma’s league-best defence.
Napoli are unbeaten in 22 home games but are missing key creative players, while Roma have conceded only 14 goals this season, making a low-scoring stalemate statistically likely.
⊕ How do Napoli’s injuries affect the betting outlook?
Absences like De Bruyne and Di Lorenzo reduce Napoli’s offensive efficiency.
Without their primary playmaker and captain, Napoli are less likely to score multiple goals, which increases the probability of Under 2.5 goals and low-scoring scorelines.
⊕ What is Roma’s recent form in terms of goal volume?
Roma have seen Under 2.5 goals in 7 straight Serie A matches.
This trend shows Roma’s tactical focus on defensive solidity and low-risk football, which often leads to fewer goals being scored at both ends of the pitch.
⊕ What does Correct Score betting involve?
Correct Score betting requires you to predict the exact final result of the match.
Unlike a Match Result bet (1X2), you must get the numbers for both teams exactly right (e.g., 1-1). This precision leads to higher potential returns but carries more risk.
⊕ How strong are Napoli at home?
Napoli are currently on a 22-match unbeaten streak at the Stadio Maradona.
This home fortress energy makes it very difficult for visiting teams like Roma to win, even when Napoli are missing several first-team starters.
⊕ Who are Roma’s biggest threats in this game?
Paulo Dybala and Matías Soulé are Roma’s primary creative and goal threats.
Napoli have a noted weakness against skillful players, meaning these two individuals will be key to Roma’s chances of finding the net in Naples.
⊕ Is the Derby del Sole usually a high-scoring game?
This specific edition points toward a low-scoring game based on current stats.
While the derby is intense, Roma’s current defensive record and Napoli’s list of absent attackers suggest a match defined by tight margins rather than open attacking football.
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