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Can Motherwell extend their dominance at Fir Park against a struggling Aberdeen side? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Motherwell are dominant at Fir Park, boasting a nine-match unbeaten home run with seven victories. Contrastingly, Aberdeen arrive on the back of five consecutive away defeats in the Premiership, failing to score in their last four. The tactical mismatch on set pieces and aerial duels heavily favours the hosts.
Read Rationale ▾
Aberdeen’s goal drought on the road is significant, failing to net in four straight away games. Motherwell’s defensive stability (only 18 goals conceded in 25 games) and Aberdeen’s vulnerability to individual errors and set pieces suggest a controlled home win with a clean sheet is highly plausible.
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Motherwell host Aberdeen at Fir Park with Europe in sight and momentum on their side. Jens Askou’s side come into this one on a strong league run, fresh from a 1-1 draw with Rangers.
Motherwell vs Aberdeen — bet365 Market Snapshot
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Motherwell’s nine-match unbeaten streak at Fir Park makes them heavy favourites against a side on five straight away defeats.
Aberdeen’s inability to score away from home suggests a potential low-scoring affair if Motherwell maintain defensive discipline.
Motherwell’s dominance at home against Aberdeen’s goal drought away makes the 2-0 scoreline a statistically plausible outcome.
Motherwell average nearly 60% possession, likely forcing Aberdeen to play purely on the counter-attack for long spells.
Match Preview: Motherwell vs Aberdeen
Fir Park should be bouncing on Sunday — and Motherwell have earned that mood. Jens Askou’s side come into this one on a strong league run, fresh from a 1-1 draw with Rangers, and still pushing hard for European qualification. They’re fourth with 44 points from 25 matches, and that cushion over the chasing pack matters.
Aberdeen arrive with a very different feel. Peter Leven’s team sit seventh on 28 points from 24 matches, and their league form has spluttered — only one win in the last eight in the Premiership. Kick-off is at 14:30, with a brisk 6° forecast at Fir Park. If the visitors want a reset, they’ll need it fast — and they’ll need it on a pitch where Motherwell have been relentless.
Control vs Transition: Possession & Passing
Motherwell’s high possession and pass completion rates highlight a team that dictates play at Fir Park.
With 85.9% pass completion, Motherwell use the ball efficiently to pin opponents in their own half.
Aberdeen operate with less of the ball, focusing on transitions and vertical through balls.
Defensive Performance: Goals Conceded
A stark difference in defensive reliability defines the current gap between these two sides.
Averaging well under one goal conceded per game, Motherwell are one of the league’s toughest units to breach.
Aberdeen struggle with individual errors and set pieces, leading to a much higher concession rate.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Team News
- Motherwell: A. Oxborough (G) is out with a hand injury.
- Aberdeen: No absences listed.
Probable Lineups
Motherwell: Ward; O’Donnell, McGinn, Welsh, Charles-Cook; Watt, Priestman; Just, Said, Slattery; Maswanhise
Aberdeen: Mitov; Devlin, Morrison, McIntyre, Frame; Bilalovic, Cameron, Nilsen, Armstrong, Keskinen; Nisbet
Tale of the Tape
| Metric (Premiership) | Motherwell | Aberdeen |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 7th |
| Points | 44 | 28 |
| Matches played | 25 | 24 |
| Goals scored | 38 | 26 |
| Goals conceded | 18 | 33 |
| Shots per game | 13.0 | 12.3 |
| Possession | 59.1% | 47.8% |
| Pass completion | 85.9% | 79.3% |
| Team rating | 6.75 | 6.55 |
Tactical Battle
Motherwell’s plan: control, then puncture
Motherwell play with short passes, lean into possession football, and they like attacking down the right. That fits the likely structure here: establish territory, pin Aberdeen back, then accelerate through quick combinations when gaps open. They’ve also got multiple ways to hurt you — strong at through balls, strong down the wings, and dangerous when individuals take responsibility in tight spaces.
The key is how Motherwell manage game state. They’ve been tagged as weak at protecting a lead, which is a warning label for the closing stages if the match stays tight. If they go in front, they’ll need to keep playing their football rather than retreat into protecting the box.
Aberdeen’s plan: sit, spring, and gamble
Aberdeen’s style points to a different rhythm: playing in their own half, attempting through balls often, and looking to hit on counter attacks. That’s not automatically passive — it’s a deliberate invitation for Motherwell to commit numbers forward, then a trigger to break quickly into the spaces left behind.
But here’s the issue: Aberdeen’s weaknesses line up badly for this fixture. They’re very weak defending set pieces, very weak in aerial duels, and very weak at avoiding individual errors. A counter-attacking team can’t afford cheap giveaways, especially at a venue where Motherwell have been ruthless and confident.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces as a swing factor: Motherwell are very strong defending set pieces — and Aberdeen are very weak defending set pieces. That imbalance can decide tight games.
- First contact in the air: Aberdeen’s aerial issues meet a Motherwell side that can compete for second balls and keep attacks alive. If Aberdeen don’t win headers cleanly, they’ll spend long spells defending waves.
- Discipline and pressure: Aberdeen’s profile includes a weakness at avoiding fouling in dangerous areas. Give Motherwell free-kicks around the box and you invite momentum swings.
- The Elliot Watt meter: He’s been Motherwell’s standout by rating (7.20) with 4 goals and 2 assists. If he’s allowed to set the tempo, Aberdeen chase shadows.
What could go wrong?
Motherwell’s biggest danger is getting impatient. If they over-commit chasing the opener, Aberdeen’s counter-attacking strengths and through-ball focus can bite in one clean transition. And if Motherwell do go ahead, managing the final phase matters — because if the game turns into frantic clearances and second balls, volatility creeps in fast.
Quick Hits
- Motherwell are unbeaten in their last nine home Premiership games at Fir Park, winning seven, and they’ve tightened their grip on fourth place.
- Aberdeen are on a five-match away losing streak in the Premiership and they haven’t scored in their last four away league games.
- Motherwell average 59.1% possession with 85.9% passing, while Aberdeen sit at 47.8% possession and 79.3% passing — two very different ways of trying to win a match.
📊 Market Explainer
Match Result (1X2)
The most straightforward market where you predict the final outcome: Home Win, Draw, or Away Win. Pros: High liquidity and simple logic. Cons: Lower prices on strong favourites. Alternative: Double Chance (Home or Draw) offers more safety but at a lower price.
Correct Score
Predicting the exact final scoreline. Pros: Much higher prices and potential returns. Cons: High volatility; one late goal can ruin the pick. Alternative: Scorecast markets (Goalscorer + Score) for even higher risk/reward.
🎯 Pick 1 Rationale: Motherwell to Win
Motherwell are currently operating at a level that Aberdeen simply cannot match, especially within the confines of Fir Park. The hosts are enjoying a nine-match unbeaten streak on home turf, a run that includes seven victories. Their tactical setup under Jens Askou is defined by control, evidenced by a league-high 59.1% possession average and an impressive 85.9% pass completion rate. By dominating the ball, they pin opponents back and exploit gaps through technical combinations, particularly down the right flank. Defensively, they remain exceptionally solid, having conceded only 18 goals in 25 league fixtures.
⚔️ Tactical Indicators:
- Motherwell are unbeaten in nine home Premiership matches, winning seven.
- Aberdeen have lost five consecutive away league games without scoring in the last four.
- The hosts average 59.1% possession, allowing them to dictate match tempo.
Risk Factor: Motherwell have occasionally struggled to protect leads in the closing stages, which could invite late pressure.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Technically superior in both defending and attacking dead-ball situations.
Ranked very weak at defending set pieces and avoiding individual errors.
🎯 Pick 2 Rationale: Motherwell 2-0 Aberdeen
A 2-0 victory for the home side aligns perfectly with the current form profiles of both teams. Aberdeen’s primary struggle is an alarming inability to score on their travels; they have failed to find the net in each of their last four away league matches. This drought meets a Motherwell defence that is one of the most disciplined in the Scottish Premiership, conceding just 18 goals all season. Motherwell’s ability to win aerial duels and Aberdeen’s documented weakness in that area suggests the hosts will win the second-ball battle and sustain pressure.
Risk Factor: A single counter-attacking moment from Aberdeen’s runners like Armstrong could break the clean sheet.
❓ Interactive Q&A
⊕ What is a Match Result (1X2) bet?
A Match Result bet involves picking one of three outcomes: a home win (1), a draw (X), or an away win (2). It is the most common way to back a team to win the game in regular time.
⊕ Why is Motherwell favoured so strongly?
Motherwell are unbeaten in nine home games and face an Aberdeen side that has lost five consecutive away matches. The gap in league position and defensive stability makes the home win highly likely.
⊕ How does Correct Score betting work?
You must predict the exact final score of the match at the end of 90 minutes. While harder to predict, it offers significantly higher odds than standard match result markets.
⊕ What happens if Aberdeen score in the 2-0 prediction?
If any team scores a goal that makes the final score different from 2-0 (e.g., 2-1 or 3-0), the Correct Score bet is settled as a loss. It requires total accuracy.
⊕ What are the odds 3/5 in decimal format?
The fractional odds of 3/5 convert to 1.60 in decimal format. This means a £10 stake would return £16 total (£6 profit plus your stake).
⊕ Does Aberdeen have any tactical advantage?
Aberdeen focus on counter-attacks and vertical through balls. If Motherwell over-commit, Aberdeen’s transition speed could create scoring opportunities against the run of play.
⊕ What is Elliot Watt’s role in the match?
Elliot Watt is the tempo-setter for Motherwell, boasting a high 7.20 rating. His passing range is key to maintaining Motherwell’s 59.1% possession and creating entries into the final third.
⊕ Is the 6° temperature a factor?
While brisk, these are standard conditions for the Scottish Premiership in February. It shouldn’t significantly alter the tactical plans of either side.
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Last Odds Update: Feb 10, 14:20 GMT | Editorial Policy
