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Can Aston Villa’s home charge overpower Newcastle, or will Eddie Howe’s side flip the FA Cup script at Villa Park? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Aston Villa have won their last three home FA Cup matches and are unbeaten in five of their last six in the competition. They recently beat Newcastle away on 25 January, and Eddie Howe’s side have lost four of their last six matches, conceding thirteen goals.
Read Rationale ▾
Villa have scored six goals across their last two home wins against Newcastle. With Newcastle’s defensive fragility conceding over two goals per game recently, and Villa’s strong home record, a narrow 2-1 victory aligns with recent head-to-head trends and the current form of both teams.
Readers’ Tip
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Aston Villa and Newcastle United lock horns at Villa Park with both clubs juggling league ambitions and knockout dreams.
Aston Villa vs Newcastle — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample William Hill odds based on our match analysis.
Villa have won 3 straight home FA Cup ties, while Newcastle have lost 4 of their last 6 matches.
Villa’s last three home FA Cup matches saw over 2.5 goals, with Newcastle conceding 13 in six games.
Villa scored 6 goals in their last two home wins against Newcastle, while conceding under a goal per game.
Villa average 54% possession and 86% pass accuracy, slightly outperforming Newcastle’s 52% and 84% marks.
Match Preview
This is a cup tie with bite. Aston Villa and Newcastle United lock horns at Villa Park, kick-off 17:45, with both clubs juggling league ambitions and knockout dreams.
Unai Emery’s side sit third in the Premier League with 47 points from 25 games, firmly in the Champions League conversation. They arrive off a gritty 1-0 win over Brighton, steadying the ship after a wobble against Brentford.
Newcastle’s mood is different. Twelfth in the table with 33 points, they’ve taken punches in recent weeks but did respond with a 2-1 win at Tottenham. The FA Cup offers reset energy — but Villa Park under the lights rarely hands out favours.
Match Volume: Average Attacks per Game
Newcastle generate a higher volume of total offensive phases, while Villa focus on controlled central transitions.
Emery’s side prioritise short passing and structure over high-volume directness.
Howe’s side attempt to stretch the pitch more frequently through wide channels.
Physical Edge: Aerial Duels Won
Newcastle possess a clear advantage in the air, winning significantly more duels than Villa across competitions.
Their strength in the air could prove critical during set-piece phases at Villa Park.
Despite aerial weaknesses, Villa maintain a tighter defensive record overall.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Aston Villa – Unai Emery
- A. da Rocha dos Santos (knee) – out until 20/02/2026
- Youri Tielemans (ankle) – out until 17/04/2026
- A. García Robledo (thigh) – out until 20/02/2026
- John McGinn (knee) – out until 10/04/2026
Probable XI (4-2-3-1): Martínez; Cash, Konsa, Mings, Digne; Onana, Douglas Luiz; Sancho, Rogers, Buendía; Watkins
Implication
The absence of McGinn and Tielemans shifts creative weight onto Morgan Rogers and Emiliano Buendía. Villa’s double pivot of Onana and Douglas Luiz must control transitions — especially against Newcastle’s wide breaks.
Newcastle United – Eddie Howe
No fresh injuries listed.
Probable XI (4-3-3): Pope; Trippier, Thiaw, Botman, Hall; Tonali, Guimarães, Willock; Murphy, Wissa, Barnes
Implication
With Bruno Guimarães (9 league goals) pulling strings, Newcastle’s midfield carries threat. The front three will test Villa’s offside trap with width and direct running.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Aston Villa | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| Games Played | 36 | 40 |
| Goals Scored | 54 | 66 |
| Goals per Game | 1.50 | 1.63 |
| Goals Conceded | 35 | 53 |
| Conceded per Game | 0.97 | 1.33 |
| Avg Shots per Game | 12.64 | 13.65 |
| Possession | 54% | 52% |
| Pass Accuracy | 86% | 84% |
| Clean Sheets | 12 | 12 |
Villa defend more tightly — under a goal conceded per game — while Newcastle fire slightly more shots. Both sides keep the ball, both circulate cleanly, but Villa’s defensive numbers hint at greater structure. Newcastle, though, generate more total attacks (99.43 per game) compared to Villa’s 85.44, suggesting a match that could stretch quickly if it opens up.
Tactical Battle
Villa’s central squeeze
Villa attack through the middle. Emery’s 4-2-3-1 leans on short passes, controlled build-up and late runners into the box. They are strong at creating chances through individual skill and through balls, and they’ll test Newcastle’s vulnerability to counter attacks. Newcastle are very weak defending counter attacks. That’s the flashing warning sign. If Watkins pins the centre-backs and Rogers drives between lines, Villa can break through quickly once possession turns over. Add their strength at shooting from direct free kicks, and set-piece moments could swing it.
Newcastle’s width and aerial edge
Howe’s side attempt crosses often and attack down the right. With Trippier and Murphy, they’ll look to isolate Villa’s full-backs. Newcastle are strong in aerial duels, averaging 16.3 aerials won per game across competitions. Villa, by contrast, are weak aerially. That mismatch matters — especially if deliveries start flying into the box for Wissa or late-arriving midfielders.
The midfield engine room
This could hinge on Guimarães vs Onana. Villa’s midfield protects leads well and can come back from losing positions, but they are weak at stopping opponents creating chances and vulnerable to long shots. Newcastle don’t need 20 touches in the box. One clean strike from range could test Emiliano Martínez, who averages 3.33 saves per game.
Key Moments to Watch
- Early tempo: Villa’s average first goal time sits at 39 minutes, Newcastle’s at 36 minutes. Neither side tend to explode instantly — patience may be required.
- Set pieces: Newcastle are very strong attacking set pieces, while Villa are weak in aerial duels. Corners could become high-alert moments.
- Discipline: Villa commit 10.47 fouls per game, Newcastle 9.73. In a tight tie, free kicks around the area could prove decisive.
- Transition speed: Newcastle concede 1.33 goals per game and struggle protecting leads. If Villa score first, the match could stretch dramatically.
What Could Go Wrong?
For Villa, overcommitting. Their offside trap and attacking shape leave space if the press is beaten. Newcastle’s width and crossing could punish that.
For Newcastle, defensive fragility. They’ve conceded 13 goals in their last six matches. If Villa find rhythm early and the midfield gets overrun, Villa Park can turn into a surge that’s hard to slow down.
Quick Hits
- Home Cup Surge: Aston Villa have won their last 3 home FA Cup matches and are unbeaten in 5 of their last 6 in the competition, with each of their last three seeing over 2.5 goals scored.
- Recent Head-to-Head Edge: Villa beat Newcastle 2-0 away on 25 January and have won 2 of the last 3 meetings at Villa Park, scoring 6 goals across those two victories.
- Newcastle’s Slide: Eddie Howe’s side have lost 4 of their last 6 matches in all competitions, conceding 13 goals in that run, including 4 at Liverpool and 3 at home to Brentford.
📊 Market Explainer
Match Result
The Match Result market (1X2) involves predicting the outcome after 90 minutes: a home win, a draw, or an away win. It is the most direct way to back a team’s current form. Pros include simplicity and high liquidity, while the main con is the risk of a late equaliser ruining a winning position.
Correct Score
Correct Score betting requires predicting the exact final scoreline. This market offers higher prices due to its difficulty. The primary pro is the potential for significant returns from a small stake, while the con is the extreme volatility where one goal completely changes the result.
Other opportunities in this market include Double Chance or Draw No Bet. Double Chance covers two outcomes (e.g., Villa win or Draw), offering a safer but lower-priced option. Draw No Bet removes the draw, returning the stake if the match finishes level, suiting those who expect a winner but want protection against a stalemate.
🎯 Pick 1: Aston Villa to Win Rationale
Tactical Indicators:
- Villa have won their last 3 home FA Cup matches.
- Newcastle have lost 4 of their last 6 matches in all competitions.
- Villa beat Newcastle 2-0 away as recently as 25 January.
Aston Villa enter this cup tie with a formidable home record and clear psychological advantage. Having defeated Newcastle 2-0 on their own turf just weeks ago, Unai Emery’s side knows exactly how to dismantle Eddie Howe’s defensive structure. Villa’s defensive solidity is a core pillar of their success, conceding under one goal per game in the league, while Newcastle have shown significant fragility. The Magpies have conceded 13 goals in their last six outings, including heavy losses to Liverpool and Brentford. Villa’s central squeeze and ability to create chances through individual skill align perfectly with Newcastle’s struggle to defend counter attacks. Even with the absence of John McGinn, the double pivot of Onana and Douglas Luiz provides a stable platform for Watkins and Rogers to exploit Newcastle’s high line. The home side’s superior structure and recent head-to-head dominance make them the authority in this matchup.
Risk Factor: Villa’s offside trap can be vulnerable to Newcastle’s width and the direct running of Barnes and Murphy if the press is bypassed.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Winning 16.3 aerial duels per match. Set pieces will be Newcastle’s primary weapon against a shorter Villa side.
Villa are weak aerially. They must prevent crosses and set-piece situations to avoid being exposed by Thiaw and Botman.
⚔️ Pick 2: Aston Villa 2-1 Newcastle Rationale
A 2-1 scoreline for Aston Villa is strongly supported by the statistical landscape of this fixture. Villa have scored six goals in their last two home victories against Newcastle, demonstrating their ability to find the net consistently at Villa Park. Newcastle average 1.63 goals per game, suggesting they have enough attacking firepower—led by Bruno Guimarães—to register on the scoresheet, especially given Villa’s vulnerability to aerial threats and set pieces. However, Newcastle’s defensive slide is the deciding factor. Conceding 13 goals in their last six matches shows a backline that is easily breached when pressured. Villa’s last three home cup matches have all seen over 2.5 goals, and with Villa conceding just 0.97 goals per game on average, they are well-equipped to restrict Newcastle to a single goal while netting twice themselves. This result mirrors Villa’s superior structure while acknowledging Newcastle’s aerial threat and attacking volume.
Risk Factor: Should Newcastle successfully exploit their aerial edge early on, the game could become a more defensive affair if they try to protect a lead.
❓ Q&A Section
⊕ What is the Match Result market in the FA Cup?
The Match Result market involves picking the winner after 90 minutes of play. In the FA Cup, this does not include extra time or penalties, only the regulation period plus injury time. It is the most common way to back a team to win the match outright.
⊕ How does Correct Score betting work?
Correct Score betting requires predicting the exact final score of the match at the end of normal time. Because it is harder to predict than a simple win, the odds are higher, offering larger potential returns for accurate predictions. A 2-1 scoreline is a common prediction for competitive ties.
⊕ Why are Aston Villa favourites for this tie?
Villa are favourites due to their strong home form and Newcastle’s recent defensive struggles. Villa have won their last three home FA Cup matches and recently beat Newcastle away, while the visitors have lost four of their last six matches overall.
⊕ What is Newcastle’s biggest tactical advantage?
Newcastle’s main advantage is their aerial strength and set-piece delivery. They win an average of 16.3 aerial duels per match, whereas Villa are weak in this area, meaning corners and crosses from Trippier will be major threats.
⊕ How will the absence of John McGinn impact Villa?
John McGinn’s absence shifts the creative responsibility to Morgan Rogers and Douglas Luiz. While Villa lose McGinn’s tenacity, their midfield still possesses high pass accuracy and the ability to control transitions through Onana.
⊕ Is a high-scoring game likely at Villa Park?
Yes, stats suggest goals are probable. Villa’s last three home FA Cup ties saw over 2.5 goals, and Newcastle have conceded 13 goals in their last six matches, indicating defensive vulnerabilities that Villa can exploit.
⊕ What does To Qualify betting involve?
To Qualify betting means you are backing a team to progress to the next round regardless of how they do it. This covers a win in 90 minutes, extra time, or a penalty shootout. It is a safer alternative to Match Result in knockout competitions.
⊕ How do through balls factor into Villa’s attack?
Villa are strong at creating chances through balls and individual skill. With Newcastle being weak at defending counter attacks, Villa will use through balls to release Ollie Watkins behind the Newcastle centre-backs.
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