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Can Bayern finally end their Pokal drought — or do Leipzig have another statement night in them? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Bayern are scoring machines with 79 league goals, yet they struggle to stop opponents from creating chances. With Leipzig’s high shot volume and transition threat, the visitors should find the net, but Bayern’s overwhelming home power and superior finishing quality usually result in a high-scoring home victory.
Read Rationale ▾
Bayern recently dismantled RB Leipzig 5-1 away, highlighting the gulf in class when they are clinical. However, Leipzig take many shots and Bayern are prone to errors. A 3-1 scoreline reflects Bayern’s attacking dominance (19.3 shots per game) while acknowledging Leipzig’s ability to punish Bayern’s defensive vulnerabilities.
Readers’ Tip
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This is a quarter-final with a proper edge to it: Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig under the lights at the Allianz Arena, with a semi-final place on the line.
Bayern vs Leipzig — BetMGM Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets for this DFB-Pokal heavyweight quarter-final clash.
Bayern’s dominant home metrics and goal volume (79 in Bundesliga) make them overwhelming favourites against Ole Werner’s side tonight.
Bayern have scored in 32 straight games, while Leipzig take 16.2 shots per game, pointing to a high probability of net-bulging action.
Bayern’s 5-1 win in January highlights their ceiling; markets suggest a multi-goal home win is the most statistically plausible outcome today.
Bayern have committed 316 fouls this season, leading to more cards than Leipzig, suggesting a potentially fragmented battle in the middle.
Match Preview
Bayern’s motivation is loud and clear — a remarkable six-year DFB-Pokal drought still hangs over a club that expects silverware as routine. Leipzig arrive chasing what would be a third cup title in five years, and they’ve got enough speed and aggression to turn this into a track meet if Bayern lose their shape.
Vincent Kompany’s side come in off a momentum-jolting 5-1 win over Hoffenheim, snapping a two-match Bundesliga winless run in the loudest possible way. Ole Werner’s Leipzig are not short of punch either — but they’ve already been on the wrong end of Bayern’s heaviest blows this season, and that memory doesn’t vanish when the whistle goes at 19:45.
Attacking Volume: Shots Per League Match
Both sides prioritise offensive pressure, with Bayern recording nearly 20 attempts per game.
Bayern’s relentless shot count keeps opponents under constant defensive strain throughout the match.
Leipzig’s willingness to shoot from various situations makes them a persistent threat on the transition.
Defensive Reliability: Clean Sheets
A comparison of shutouts recorded across all competitions this season.
Heavy possession often serves as Bayern’s best defence, limiting the volume of high-quality chances against them.
Leipzig maintain a strong clean sheet ratio despite facing a higher volume of transitions.
Heavyweight Numbers
- Five-goal warning shot: Bayern have put five or more past RB Leipzig in three of the last four meetings, including a 5-1 away win on 17 January 2026.
- Possession machine vs transition threat: Bayern average 65% possession and 90% pass accuracy across their matches, while Leipzig sit at 54% possession and 85% passing.
- Goals feel inevitable: Bayern have scored in 32 of their last 32 matches, and Leipzig have scored in 22 of their last 24 — the net is rarely left untouched.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Bayern Munich absences
- Jamal Musiala (torn muscle bundle) out.
- Manuel Neuer (stomach flu) a doubt/absent.
RB Leipzig absences
- No injuries or suspensions listed.
Bayern Munich – probable XI
Neuer; Laimer, Upamecano, Tah, Davies; Kimmich, Pavlovic; Olise, Gnabry, Luis Diaz; Kane
RB Leipzig – probable XI
Vandevoordt; R. Baku, Orban, Bitshiabu, Raum; Seiwald; Schlager, Baumgartner; Diomande, Romulo, Nusa
Personnel Impact
- If Neuer misses out, Bayern lose a huge chunk of calm in their build-up — and Leipzig’s willingness to “take a lot of shots” can turn that into pressure fast.
- Musiala being absent shifts creative responsibility even harder onto Michael Olise and Luis Díaz, with Harry Kane as the focal point for everything Bayern do in the final third.
- Leipzig’s front line looks built for running the channels. With Diomande, Rômulo and Nusa, they’ve got the kind of pace that punishes even a single sloppy turnover.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Bayern Munich | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (Bundesliga) | 79 in 21 apps | 40 in 21 apps |
| Shots per game (Bundesliga) | 19.3 | 16.2 |
| Possession | 67.7% | 52.6% |
| Pass accuracy | 90.3% | 84.7% |
| Clean sheets (all leagues shown) | 10 (32 games) | 9 (24 games) |
| Yellow cards (all leagues shown) | 61 | 35 |
Bayern’s numbers scream control: heavy possession, crisp passing, and a shot volume that keeps the opponent defending for long spells. Leipzig’s profile is different — less ball, less accuracy, but still a healthy shot count and enough goals to make any game feel live. The twist is discipline and game state: Bayern rack up more yellows, and Leipzig carry a listed weakness in “protecting the lead”. In a cup tie where momentum swings hard, that combination can make the middle third messy.
Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Bayern’s plan: own the pitch, squeeze the oxygen
Bayern want the game in the opposition half. Their style points directly at it: short passes, frequent through balls, and a clear lean towards attacking down the right. Add in strengths like finishing scoring chances and counter attacks, and you get a side that can hurt you both when they dominate possession and when they win it back and go.
The scary part for Leipzig is how many ways Bayern can create. Olise brings output and control — 10 goals and 16 assists in the Bundesliga — and he isn’t just a final-ball merchant. He shoots (3.1 per game) and keeps it tidy. Luis Díaz has 13 league goals and 9 assists, while Kane is the obvious headline act with 24 league goals and 8 man-of-the-match awards.
But there’s a catch, and it’s not small: Bayern are listed as very weak at stopping opponents from creating chances, and weak at avoiding individual errors. That is basically an invitation to Leipzig to stay in the tie even when Bayern look like they’re taking over.
Leipzig’s plan: be brave without the ball, then hit like a hammer
Leipzig’s style points to a side that will still try to play: short passes, through balls, and an emphasis on attacking down the left. They also “take a lot of shots”, which matters in a cup tie because you don’t need perfect patterns to shift the mood — you need moments.
The key connectors are clear. Christoph Baumgartner carries goals (8) and creativity (6 assists), and he’s also right up there for discipline — the kind of player who plays on the edge and can tilt a match emotionally. David Raum is a serious outlet from the left with 3 goals and 4 assists, plus a strong rating (7.39). If Leipzig are funnelling attacks down their left, Raum’s delivery and overlap become a constant question Bayern must answer.
Up front, Diomande has 7 goals and 4 assists and five man-of-the-match awards, which screams “influence” rather than just “finisher”. With Nusa and Rômulo supporting, Leipzig can stretch the pitch and force Bayern’s defenders to turn.
Key Zones and Momentum
This feels like a battle between Bayern’s structured dominance and Leipzig’s ability to create chaos from imperfect situations. Bayern’s offside issue is flagged as very weak, and Leipzig literally “play the offside trap”. That’s a fascinating clash: Bayern want runners beyond Kane and into the spaces created by through balls, but mistimed movement kills attacks and hands Leipzig breathing room.
And then there’s the air. Both sides carry weaknesses in aerial duels, yet Leipzig are also strong at attacking set pieces, while Bayern are strong at defending set pieces. That’s the kind of collision where the first big dead-ball moment can flip confidence on its head — especially in a cold 5° evening.
Key Moments to Watch
- Early pattern-setting: Bayern’s average first goal timing is shown at 35′, while Leipzig’s is 37′. If either side land the first punch, the match shape changes instantly.
- The Olise problem: Michael Olise is Bayern’s most productive creator (16 assists) and a high-volume shooter. Leipzig can’t let him receive cleanly between the lines, or it becomes wave after wave.
- Left-flank friction: Leipzig want to attack down the left. With Raum and Nusa, that flank can become a conveyor belt of cut-backs and second balls. Bayern’s right-sided focus means transitions here can be decisive.
- Cards and control: Bayern’s tally shows 61 yellow cards to Leipzig’s 35, with 316 fouls vs 215. If Bayern’s midfield gets dragged into stop-start chasing, Leipzig get the kind of fragmented game they can steal.
What Could Go Wrong?
For Bayern, it’s the combination of individual errors and being very weak at stopping opponents creating chances — exactly the sort of cracks that open when a cup tie gets frantic. For Leipzig, it’s game management: “protecting the lead” sits as a weakness, and Bayern have the firepower to punish even a five-minute wobble. One sloppy spell, one mistimed offside run at the wrong end, one set-piece lapse — and the night can swing violently either way.
📊 Tactical Analysis & Betting Market Guide
Match Result & BTTS
This market requires you to predict the winner and whether both teams will score. It offers higher prices than a simple win bet by adding the condition of a defensive lapse from the favourite.
Correct Score
A high-volatility market where you must predict the exact final scoreline. Small stakes can yield high returns, but it requires precise game-state analysis to land.
🎯 Pick 1: Bayern Munich to Win & Both Teams to Score
Bayern Munich are the ultimate offensive machine in German football, having netted 79 goals in just 21 league appearances. Their home form at the Allianz Arena is built on 67.7% possession and a relentless shot volume of nearly 20 per match. This dominance usually forces opponents into deep blocks that eventually crumble under pressure. However, Bayern’s defensive metrics show significant vulnerability; they are listed as very weak at stopping opponents from creating chances and prone to individual errors.
RB Leipzig are perfectly equipped to exploit these gaps. With transition threats like Nusa and Diomande, and a team style that encourages taking a lot of shots, the visitors rarely leave the pitch without scoring. Leipzig have found the net in 22 of their last 24 matches, making a clean sheet for Bayern look unlikely. Nevertheless, Bayern’s ability to simply outscore the opposition, combined with Leipzig’s identified weakness in protecting a lead, suggests a home victory where both sides contribute to the scoreline.
Risk Factor: A stellar performance from the RB Leipzig goalkeeper or a rare clinical defensive display from Bayern could see this land as a win to nil instead.
Key Tactical Mismatch
79 goals scored. Bayern are rated strong at finishing scoring chances and counter attacks.
Ranked as weak at protecting a lead. Vulnerable to Bayern’s high-pressure late-game surges.
🎯 Pick 2: Bayern Munich 3-1 RB Leipzig
Predicting a 3-1 scoreline aligns with the overwhelming attacking data surrounding this fixture. Bayern Munich recently hammered RB Leipzig 5-1 away from home, proving they can bypass Ole Werner’s defensive structure with ease when their forward line clicks. Harry Kane, Michael Olise, and Luis Díaz provide a triple-threat of elite finishing and creativity that Leipzig’s backline—noted for weaknesses in aerial duels—will struggle to contain over 90 minutes.
However, Leipzig’s 16.2 shots per game average suggests they are too proactive to be kept completely quiet. Given Bayern’s propensity for individual errors and their weakness in stopping opponents from creating chances, a consolation goal for Leipzig is highly probable. The 3-1 scoreline captures the reality of a match where Bayern dominate the ball and the scoreboard but remain open enough at the back to allow Leipzig a moment of success.
Risk Factor: Cup ties can become defensive stalemates if the first half remains goalless, potentially leading to a much lower-scoring outcome.
⚔️ Match Q&A
⊕ What is a ‘Match Result & BTTS’ bet?
⊕ Why is the 3-1 scoreline predicted for this game?
⊕ How does possession impact the match betting?
⊕ Can RB Leipzig exploit Bayern’s weaknesses?
⊕ What does ‘Correct Score’ betting involve?
⊕ Is Harry Kane a factor in the scoreline prediction?
⊕ What is the ‘Offside Trap’ mention regarding Leipzig?
⊕ Why are Bayern’s yellow cards a tactical factor?
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Last Odds Update: Feb 10, 14:20 GMT | Editorial Policy
