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Can Sunderland’s Stadium of Light surge rattle Liverpool’s shaky late-game nerve? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Sunderland are a formidable force at the Stadium of Light, boasting a 13-match unbeaten home run. Liverpool’s habit of conceding late, coupled with their poor recent league form of just one win in seven, makes the hosts a strong candidate to avoid defeat tonight.
Read Rationale ▾
The reverse fixture at Anfield finished 1-1, and with Liverpool drawing four of their last seven league games, another stalemate is plausible. Sunderland’s defensive resilience at home and Liverpool’s struggle to protect leads suggest a repeat of the earlier closely contested scoreline.
Readers’ Tip
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Stadium of Light under the lights, and it’s got that edge-of-the-seat feel already. Sunderland come into this one sitting ninth, feeding off a serious home groove, while Liverpool arrive still packing punch going forward but carrying a real late-match problem.
Sunderland vs Liverpool — Market Snapshot
Key metrics and sample prices from the Stadium of Light clash.
Sunderland’s 13-game unbeaten home run makes them tough to beat despite Liverpool’s superior league ranking and high possession stats.
Liverpool average 15.5 shots per game, but Sunderland’s strong defensive shape at home suggests a tighter, more selective contest.
The previous 1-1 draw at Anfield remains a key reference point for this evening’s matchup at the Stadium of Light.
Liverpool hold 11 clean sheets to Sunderland’s 8, reflecting a superior Pass accuracy of 87% used to control games.
Match Preview
Stadium of Light under the lights, and it’s got that edge-of-the-seat feel already. Sunderland come into this one sitting ninth on 36 points, feeding off a serious home groove and looking every bit like a side that enjoys the scrap. Liverpool arrive sixth on 39 points, still packing punch going forward — but carrying a very real late-match problem that keeps biting.
The reverse fixture finished 1-1 at Anfield, with Nordi Mukiele’s own goal rescuing a point late on for Liverpool. Now it’s Sunderland with the backing, Liverpool with the ball, and a fixture that feels like it could pivot on one moment — a counter, a set-piece, or a lapse in concentration when legs start to go.
Match Control: Possession vs Passing Accuracy
Liverpool’s statistical profile shows a high-control approach, dictating the tempo through superior retention.
Their 87% pass accuracy ensures they keep the ball for long spells to pin opponents back.
Sunderland are comfortable without the ball, focusing on selective attacks down the flanks.
Goal Threat: League Scoring Output
Liverpool have found the net significantly more often, though Sunderland’s home form creates a different dynamic.
With 15.5 shots per game, Liverpool’s pressure often leads to a high volume of chances.
Sunderland rely on moments of transition and Brobbey’s 5 league goals to stay competitive.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Sunderland absences
- Bertrand Traoré (knee injury)
- D. Bi (ankle injury)
- Granit Xhaka (ankle injury)
Liverpool absences
- H. Jones (unknown injury)
Sunderland Probable XI
Roefs; Mukiele, Ballard, Alderete, Reinildo; Sadiki, Diarra; Hume, Le Fée, Talbi; Brobbey
Liverpool Probable XI
Alisson; Jones, Konaté, Van Dijk, Robertson; Gravenberch, Mac Allister; Salah, Wirtz, Gakpo; Ekitiké
What it means
Sunderland missing Xhaka removes a proven organiser and passer from midfield — and against a side that wants to camp in your half, that matters. Liverpool’s Jones question could affect balance, but the bigger theme is clear: Liverpool will try to own territory through short passing; Sunderland will try to make every duel, second ball and clearance feel like a statement.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric (League unless stated) | Sunderland | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th | 6th |
| Points | 36 | 39 |
| Goals scored | 27 | 40 |
| Goals conceded | 29 | 35 |
| Shots per game | 9.6 | 15.5 |
| Possession | 45% | 60% |
| Pass accuracy | 80% | 87% |
| Corners (avg per game) | 3.81 | 6.03 |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 11 |
Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Liverpool’s squeeze: territory, shots, and the wing-to-box rhythm
Liverpool want the match played in Sunderland’s half. Their identity is built on possession football, short passes, and control — and the raw output backs it up: 15.5 shots per game in the league, plus a strong knack for attacking down the wings. With Mohamed Salah, Florian Wirtz and Cody Gakpo behind Hugo Ekitiké, it’s a front line that can rotate positions, hit early balls into the box, or pull the trigger from range.
There’s also a specific edge: Liverpool are very strong at shooting from direct free kicks. If Sunderland concede cheap fouls around the arc, that’s an invitation — and Liverpool have the technicians to punish it.
Sunderland’s plan: width, long balls, and hard metres up the pitch
Sunderland’s style points to width and directness: playing with width, long balls, and attacking down both flanks. That matters because Liverpool’s defensive profile includes weaknesses Sunderland will want to poke: defending counter attacks and protecting the lead have been issues, while stopping opponents from creating chances is listed as very weak.
That’s where Sunderland’s front man becomes central. Brian Brobbey leads Sunderland’s league scoring with 5 goals, and his presence gives them a way out when they’re under pressure. When the ball goes long, he can compete, bring runners into play, and turn defensive spells into attacking phases. If Sunderland can pin Liverpool’s centre-backs for even a few seconds, suddenly the whole stadium wakes up.
Key Moments to Watch
- First contact in the air: Sunderland’s approach invites duels. If Brobbey wins his early battles, Sunderland gain territory and belief.
- Wide overloads: Liverpool’s wing strength meets Sunderland’s wing weakness. Watch how quickly Liverpool can create 2v1s near the byline.
- Set-piece discipline: Liverpool’s direct free-kick threat is a real weapon. Sunderland can’t gift fouls in shooting range.
- The final 10 minutes: Liverpool’s late concessions are the loudest alarm bell in this fixture. If it’s close late on, every clearance and transition will feel like a cliff edge.
What could go wrong?
For Sunderland, it’s simple: spend too long defending and the pressure eventually turns into corners, second balls and shots — and Liverpool average far more of them. For Liverpool, the risk is familiar: dominate the match, don’t kill it, then lose structure when the game stretches. If Sunderland stay in touch and the crowd senses nerves, this can flip fast — and the last phase could become a test of composure more than quality.
📊 Market Explainer
Double Chance (Match Result)
A Double Chance bet covers two of the three possible outcomes in a match. In this case, “Sunderland or Draw” means the bet wins if the home side wins the game OR if the match ends in a stalemate.
Pros: Higher probability of success as it covers 66% of outcomes. Cons: Generally offers lower odds than a single match result.
Correct Score
This market requires predicting the exact final scoreline after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. It is a high-volatility market that rewards accuracy with higher returns.
Pros: High potential price. Cons: Extremely difficult to predict as a single goal in the final minute changes everything.
🎯 Main Bet: Sunderland or Draw
Sunderland enter this fixture with an incredible psychological edge at the Stadium of Light, remaining unbeaten in their last 13 home matches across all competitions. This run has turned their home ground into a genuine fortress, where they have won four of their last six games. Against a Liverpool side that has struggled for consistency in the Premier League, managing only one victory in their last seven outings, the hosts have a significant opportunity to claim a result.
⚔️ Tactical Indicators
- Sunderland are unbeaten in 13 consecutive home fixtures.
- Liverpool have won just once in their last seven league matches.
- The visitors have conceded four winners in the 90th minute this season.
Risk Factor: Sunderland are missing Granit Xhaka, which removes a key organiser from their midfield against a Liverpool side that averages 60% possession.
🎯 Correct Score: 1-1 Draw
A 1-1 scoreline is the most logical outcome when analysing the recent history and current vulnerabilities of both sides. The reverse fixture at Anfield earlier this season ended in exactly this result, proving that Sunderland can go toe-to-toe with Arne Slot’s side. With Liverpool recording four draws in their last seven Premier League games, they have developed a habit of being held, particularly when their 60% possession fails to translate into a second or third “killer” goal.
Why 1-1? Sunderland’s home resilience meets Liverpool’s late-game lapses.
Risk Factor: Liverpool’s direct free-kick threat and higher shot volume could see them snatch a winner if Sunderland’s wing defence fails to hold.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Strong knack for attacking down the flanks with Gakpo and Salah creating constant width pressure.
Weak at defending attacks down the wings, leaving them exposed to Liverpool’s 6.03 corner average per game.
❓ Questions & Answers
⊕ How does the Double Chance market work for this game?
The Double Chance market allows you to back two of the three match outcomes simultaneously. For Sunderland vs Liverpool, a “Home or Draw” bet wins if Sunderland win or the match ends in a draw, losing only if Liverpool win.
⊕ What happens to my Correct Score bet if there is a late goal?
Correct Score bets are settled on the final score at the end of full-time (90 minutes plus injury time). If a late goal changes a 1-0 scoreline to 1-1 in the final minute, any bets on 1-0 would lose and bets on 1-1 would win.
⊕ Is Sunderland’s home form a reliable indicator?
Sunderland are unbeaten in their last 13 home games in all competitions. This record indicates a strong level of consistency and resilience when playing at the Stadium of Light.
⊕ Why is Liverpool’s late-game record relevant?
Liverpool have conceded four 90th-minute winners in the league this season. This suggest a loss of concentration or structural fatigue late in matches, which can impact the final scoreline significantly.
⊕ What does the 1-1 scoreline at Anfield tell us?
The previous 1-1 draw shows that Sunderland are tactically capable of frustrating Liverpool. It confirms that the gap in quality can be bridged by Sunderland’s defensive organisation.
⊕ How often has Liverpool drawn recently?
Liverpool have drawn four of their last seven Premier League matches. This frequency suggests they are finding it difficult to convert their dominance into three points.
⊕ Can I bet on how many corners will occur?
Yes, the corner market is common. Liverpool average 6.03 corners per game, while Sunderland average 3.81, hinting at a match where the away side will win the corner count.
⊕ Who is Sunderland’s biggest threat?
Brian Brobbey is the main attacking outlet, leading their league scoring with 5 goals. His ability to hold up the ball is crucial for their counter-attacking style.
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