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Will Toulouse continue their fly-away form, or can Amiens turn this Coupe de France night into a proper ambush at the Stadium de Toulouse? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Read Rationale ▾
Toulouse are in flying form, unbeaten in their last four matches including a 5-1 thrashing of Nice. They generate high shot volume with 75% of attempts inside the box. Against a Ligue 2 Amiens side that has struggled recently, the top-flight hosts should secure a multi-goal victory.
Read Rationale ▾
Toulouse average 11.77 shots per game and have scored 34 goals this season, but the absence of defensive leader Cresswell makes them vulnerable to Amiens’ strong transition play. Amiens have a habit of scoring away in the cup, making a high-scoring 3-1 home win a plausible scoreline.
Readers’ Tip
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This one has classic Coupe de France edge. Toulouse, one-time winners, are back on home turf hunting a quarter-final place and carrying real rhythm into the night.
Toulouse vs Amiens — BetMGM Market Snapshot
Key metrics and sample prices ahead of the Coupe de France tie.
Toulouse enter unbeaten in four matches, and top-flight quality typically tells against Ligue 2 opposition at the Stadium de Toulouse.
Toulouse’s shot-hungry approach leads to high event games, evidenced by their recent 5-1 thrashing of Nice in Ligue 1.
Toulouse average 1.54 goals per game this season, while Amiens have failed to score in several recent league outings.
Toulouse get 75% of their 11.77 shots inside the area, creating high-quality chances compared to Amiens’ Ligue 2 profile.
Match Preview
Carles Martínez Novell’s side have found a sharp groove: four unbeaten, big league wins, and that gritty cup escape at Angers that can toughen a group up.
Amiens arrive with a different kind of confidence. Omar Daf’s team sit 16th in Ligue 2, but their cup form has bite — strong away results, fast starts, and a habit of getting in front and staying there. Toulouse are the top-flight side, but this won’t feel like a routine fixture. Kick-off is at 19:30.
Attacking Tempo: Shots per Game
Toulouse maintain a higher volume of offensive output, prioritizing central entries and box presence.
Defensive Profile: Tackling Intensity
Amiens rely on physical disruption and duel success to neutralize top-flight opponents.
- Toulouse’s surge: Toulouse are unbeaten in their last four matches in all competitions, including league wins 5-1 vs Nice and 2-0 vs Brest, plus a cup win on penalties at Angers.
- Shot-hungry approach: Toulouse average 11.77 shots per game with 75% of attempts coming inside the box, while Amiens sit at 8.21 shots with only 61% inside the area.
- Cup specialists on the road: Amiens have a 100% win rate in their last three away Coupe de France matches and have won HT/FT in all three of those ties.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Toulouse Absences
- C. Cresswell (yellow card suspension, back 05.02.2026)
- F. Magri (suspended)
- D. Methalie (knee injury)
- A. Francis (tibia and fibula fracture)
Amiens Absences
No injuries/suspensions listed.
Probable Lineups
Toulouse (possible XI): Restes; McKenzie, Koumbassa, Nicolaisen; Messali, Casseres, Demba, Donnum; Hidalgo, Gboho, Emersonn
Amiens (possible XI): Bernardoni; Bakayoko, Lo, Kaiboue, Louis; Kandil, Nduquidi, Fofana, Leautey; Rafii, Ikia Dimi
Strengths & Weaknesses Snapshot
Toulouse losing Cresswell (their highest-rated player at 7.26) is a big hit to their duels and defensive presence — and they’re also without Magri (5 league goals), which reshapes the finishing options.
Amiens look set up for compact midfield work and quick releases, which suits a cup tie where the away side want chaos, not long spells without the ball.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Toulouse | Amiens |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 34 | 33 |
| Goals conceded | 25 | 34 |
| Shots per game | 11.77 | 8.21 |
| Possession | 42% | 46% |
| Pass accuracy | 81% | 80% |
| Tackles per game | 13.59 | 17.75 |
This reads like a clash of intent. Toulouse generate more volume and live in the box, but they don’t dominate possession. Amiens tackle hard, keep games scrappy, and don’t mind long stretches without glamour — as long as the scoreline stays tight.
Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Toulouse: direct energy, big-box pressure
Martínez’s Toulouse aren’t built to stroke it around for fun — keeping possession is a weakness, and they embrace the trade-off. They attack through the middle, hit long balls, and cross often. It’s aggressive, quick, and geared towards repeated shots rather than perfect patterns.
That plays well in cup football. Toulouse’s chance creation is a major weapon, and they’ve got multiple goal threats: Yann Gboho (6 league goals), Santiago Hidalgo (4), and Aron Dønnum (3) — plus Dønnum’s delivery (3 assists) gives them an edge when games become about moments.
The missing piece is the usual safety blanket at the back. Without Cresswell, Toulouse’s aerial dominance can take a knock, and that matters because their own strengths lean heavily on duels and set pieces.
Amiens: survive the surge, then strike early
Amiens’ recent results show a team that can be awkward: a 0-0 draw with Laval, but also defeats to Nancy, Annecy, and Grenoble. Yet in the Coupe de France they’ve been a different side — winning away, often taking control early. That HT/FT streak isn’t luck; it’s about arriving organised, landing the first blow, then defending space rather than chasing the ball.
Expect Amiens to let Toulouse fire early, then hunt turnovers. With Toulouse committing numbers and playing forward quickly, the gaps can appear behind the first press — especially if Toulouse force passes through traffic rather than keeping the ball.
Key Zones: Tackles, transitions, and the first goal
Toulouse’s shot profile screams danger (75% inside the box), so Amiens can’t defend passively. But Amiens also tackle a lot (17.75 per game) and their game can become a sequence: win duel, clear lines, sprint into the channels, win a foul, slow it down.
If Toulouse score first, the pitch opens and the home side can turn it into waves of pressure. If Amiens score first, the whole match changes shape — and Toulouse’s aggression can start working against them.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces and aerial duels: Toulouse are strong at attacking set pieces and aerial battles, but losing Cresswell could change how dominant they look on dead balls.
- Discipline: Toulouse average 2.14 yellow cards per game. If early bookings arrive, their aggressive style becomes riskier in every duel.
- The first 20 minutes: Toulouse’s best spell tends to be fast and forceful; Amiens’ cup trend is starting quickly and staying in control. Something has to give.
- Transitions into the box: Toulouse get 75% of shots inside the area. Amiens have to protect central zones and stop cut-backs, not just block crosses.
What Could Go Wrong?
For Toulouse, it’s a familiar cup trap: lots of pressure, not enough clean finishes, then one away break turns the stadium cold. For Amiens, it’s the opposite — absorb too deep for too long, invite repeated shots, and a single scramble in the box can undo a night’s discipline in seconds.
📊 Market Analysis: Match Result & Correct Score
Match Result & Over/Under
This market combines the final outcome (win, draw, loss) with the total number of goals. Selecting a win and “Over 1.5 goals” requires the chosen team to win while at least two goals are scored. It is a popular way to increase the price on heavy favourites in matches where offensive volume is high.
Correct Score
Correct Score involves predicting the exact final scoreline. This market is higher risk due to the precision required but offers substantial returns. It suits games where defensive absences or specific transition patterns point toward a particular scoreline concentration.
Other opportunities in this market: Double Chance offers security for those expecting a scrappy cup tie, while “To Qualify” markets remove the risk of 90-minute draws if the match goes to extra time or penalties.
🎯 Pick 1 Rationale: Toulouse to Win & Over 1.5 Goals
Toulouse enter this last-16 fixture in their best rhythm of the season, remaining unbeaten in their last four matches across all competitions. Their offensive metrics are particularly authoritative; Carles Martínez’s side generate 11.77 shots per game, with a significant 75% of those attempts occurring inside the box. This direct energy resulted in dominant league victories like the 5-1 win over Nice, proving they have the top-flight quality to punish lower-division defences. Amiens, while competitive in the cup, have struggled for consistency in Ligue 2 and possess a defensive record of 34 goals conceded in 24 games. With Toulouse’s high-box pressure and Amiens’ tendency to be out-shot, a home win with multiple goals is a highly probable outcome.
⚔️ Tactical Indicators
- Toulouse are unbeaten in 4 matches with high-volume shot creation.
- 75% of Toulouse’s shots come from inside the penalty area.
- Amiens have conceded 34 goals in 24 league matches this term.
Risk Factor: Toulouse are missing their highest-rated player and aerial specialist, Cresswell, which could impact their defensive stability during transitions.
🎯 Pick 2 Rationale: Toulouse 3-1 Amiens
A 3-1 scoreline Concentration respects the offensive dominance of the hosts while acknowledging specific defensive vulnerabilities. Toulouse’s aggressive approach often results in them committing numbers forward, creating gaps that a Ligue 2 side like Amiens—who tackle hard (17.75 per game) and hit HT/FT away in the cup—can exploit. Amiens have shown Cup pedigree on the road, winning their last three away ties, and are likely to target central zones where Toulouse are reshuffling without Cresswell. However, the superior chance creation of Toulouse, spearheaded by Yann Gboho (6 goals) and Aron Dønnum’s delivery, should see the Ligue 1 side pull away as the game progresses. A high-scoring 3-1 outcome aligns with Toulouse’s recent 5-1 and 2-0 scoring trends.
Risk Factor: Coupe de France matches often see underdogs defend deep; if Amiens successfully block central entries, the goal volume could be lower.
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