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Can Reims’ home surge crack Le Mans’ stubborn streak in this Coupe de France last-16 tie? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Read Rationale ▾
Reims are in formidable form at Stade Auguste-Delaune II, winning their last four home games while conceding only once. With a 58% possession average and superior passing accuracy, they are well-placed to dominate territory against a Le Mans side that typically struggles to control the ball.
Read Rationale ▾
Le Mans possess a stubborn defensive record, conceding fewer goals per match than Reims over their last 24 games. Given their ability to frustrate opponents and Reims’ efficient but controlled home performances, a narrow 1-0 victory for the hosts reflects a cagey tactical cup battle.
Two second-tier sides. One place in the Coupe de France quarter-finals. And a Stade Auguste-Delaune II crowd ready for a proper cup night.
Match Preview
Reims host Le Mans on Tuesday evening, kicking off at 19:30, with the home side carrying the weight of unfinished business after last season’s Coupe de France final defeat to Paris Saint-Germain.
Reims’ league push is sharp too: they sit second in Ligue 2 after 21 matches, just three points off the summit, fresh from a 1–0 away win at Clermont Foot. Le Mans arrive with a grit-first profile—three draws in their last six across all competitions, and a recent run that includes back-to-back league wins at home and away. This is a last-16 tie that looks simple on paper… right until it gets messy.
Reims vs Le Mans — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with implied probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our analysis.
Reims’ 58% possession average and four-match home winning streak set a strong platform against Le Mans’ lower-volume attacking profile.
With Le Mans conceding only 0.88 goals per match, a tight tactical battle and a single-goal margin look highly plausible.
Leading the league push with 8 goals, Nakamura remains Reims’ most clinical threat with 66% of team shots coming inside the box.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Reims Team News
Reims absences:
- Y. Fofana (shin injury)
- Adama Bojang (unknown injury)
- Joseph Okumu (torn knee ligaments)
Le Mans Team News
Le Mans absences:
No absences listed.
Possession & Control
Territorial dominance vs counter-resistance profile.
Highly accurate 85% passing facilitates long spells of control at home.
Le Mans are comfortable without the ball, focusing on 77% pass efficiency in transitions.
Defensive Resilience
Goals conceded per match (Last 24 fixtures).
Reliable home record with 11 clean sheets in their last 24 appearances.
Impressive defensive efficiency, conceding fewer per game than their higher-ranked hosts.
Probable Lineups
Reims (possible XI):
Ewen Jaouen; Hiroki Sekine, Nicolas Pallois, Abdoul Koné, Sergio Akieme; Théo Leoni, Mory Gbane, Teddy Teuma; Ange Martial Tia, Keito Nakamura, Amine Salama
Le Mans (possible XI):
Nicolas Kocik; Lucas Buadés, Samuel Yohou, Théo Eyoum, Harold Voyer; Milan Robin, Alexandre Lauray, Anthony Ribelin; Dame Guèye, Antoine Rabillard, William Harhouz
What it means: Reims missing Y. Fofana, Bojang, and Okumu trims options across the pitch, while Le Mans’ clean bill of health gives Patrick Videira more freedom to stick to his preferred balance—compact without the ball, and clinical when the moments come.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric (per game / total) | Reims | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | 58% | 48% |
| Pass accuracy | 85% | 77% |
| Shots per game | 12.08 | 9.71 |
| Goals scored (last 24 matches) | 1.92 CLINICAL | 1.25 |
| Goals conceded (last 24 matches) | 1.00 | 0.88 |
| Clean sheets (last 24 matches) | 11 | 10 |
| Corners per game | 4.54 | 5.17 |
| Yellow cards per game | 1.88 | 2.42 |
Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Reims’ plan: own the pitch, then hit the box
Reims don’t just pass it around—they occupy teams. Their 58% possession and 470.08 passes per game with 85% accuracy point to long spells of control, and the shot numbers back it up: 12.08 attempts per match, with 66% of their shots coming from inside the box. That’s not hopeful punting; that’s structured entry.
Expect Keito Nakamura to be central to the end product. He’s Reims’ top Ligue 2 scorer in this squad list with 8 goals, and he’s supported by midfield contributions too—Teddy Teuma (4) and Ange Martial Tia (4). That matters in a cup tie, because Le Mans will try to strip away the obvious lanes. When your midfielders can score, the “just block the striker” plan starts to creak.
Reims also generate more threat through sheer frequency of actions: 104.63 total attacks per game and 54.67 dangerous attacks, both higher than Le Mans. It reads like a team that keeps coming back to the same door until the lock snaps.
Le Mans’ plan: stay in shape, then punish the first wobble
Le Mans sit lower in the ball numbers—48% possession, 331.92 passes per match, 77% accuracy—and they shoot less (9.71 per game). That doesn’t automatically mean passive. It means selective. They funnel their finishing work into the area too: 72% of their shots are inside the box. When Le Mans commit, they commit to proper chances.
The key is timing. Their average first goal comes later (56′) than Reims’ (42′), suggesting Le Mans are comfortable letting a game settle before stepping out. And with Reims likely to dominate, Le Mans’ best moments could come right after Reims think they’ve got control—those sloppy five minutes after a big spell of pressure.
Up top, Dame Guèye stands out with 5 goals, with Antoine Rabillard (3) and William Harhouz (4) also offering punch. If Le Mans get the ball into zones where one action can flip the tie—second balls, cutbacks, set pieces—those names become very loud, very quickly.
The decisive zone: discipline, transitions, and set-piece gravity
There’s a big emotional edge here: Reims have been strong at home and have recent head-to-head control too—unbeaten in the last five meetings overall (D2) and winning two of the last three at this ground, including a 1–0 league win in August. That can nudge the tempo upwards early.
But Le Mans can drag this into a scrap if they want it. They average more fouls (14.21 vs 12.75) and more yellows (2.42 vs 1.88). That’s a warning and a weapon. Break rhythm, stop counters, frustrate. The danger is obvious: overdo it and you gift Reims cheap territory and repeated deliveries. In a cup tie, you don’t need many of those to swing a night.
Reims’ task is to avoid impatience. With their shot volume and ball dominance, the temptation is to force it. Le Mans will happily watch crosses and blocked shots all night—what they won’t forgive is a central turnover with bodies ahead of the ball. That’s where a controlled game turns into a breathless one.
Key Moments to Watch
- Early pressure vs late punch: Reims’ average first goal time (42′) points to faster starts than Le Mans (56′). If Reims score early, the tie opens. If they don’t, tension does the job for Le Mans.
- Set pieces and corners: Le Mans average 5.17 corners per game to Reims’ 4.54. If this becomes a stop-start contest, corners can become Le Mans’ quickest route into the net.
- Shot location battle: Reims take 66% of shots inside the box; Le Mans take 72% inside the box. Watch who protects the central lane better—because both teams want the same finishing zones.
- Discipline line: Le Mans’ higher foul and card rates (14.21 fouls, 2.42 yellows per game) could either disrupt Reims’ flow or hand them the exact platform they want.
What Could Go Wrong?
Reims can dominate every “control” metric and still get stung if they over-commit after a blocked shot or a broken move. Le Mans don’t need long spells; they need one clean transition, one corner, one loose second ball. And if this stays level deep into the second half, the tie naturally tilts towards nerves, moments, and fine margins—exactly the kind of chaos the cup loves.
Quick Hits
- Home Fortress Feel: Reims have won each of their last four home games, scoring nine and conceding just one, setting a ruthless tone for this night.
- Form That Travels Across Competitions: Karel Geraerts’s side have won 10 of their last 12 matches in all competitions (D1, L1), and they’ve already had to win a shoot-out in this cup run.
- Ball vs Block: Reims average 58% possession with 85% pass accuracy, while Le Mans sit at 48% possession and 77% passing—this tie screams territory versus resistance.
📊 Market Explainer
Match Result (1X2)
The most traditional market in football. You are betting on the outcome after 90 minutes: a Home Win (1), a Draw (X), or an Away Win (2). It is popular for its simplicity but offers no protection if the underdog forces a stalemate.
Other Opportunities: Double Chance (Home or Draw) reduces risk by covering two outcomes but offers a lower price. Draw No Bet removes the draw, returning your stake if it ends level.
Correct Score
A high-volatility market where you predict the exact final scoreline. Because there are many possible outcomes, the prices are significantly higher, but the probability of winning is lower.
Other Opportunities: Correct Score Group Betting (e.g., 1-0, 2-0, or 2-1) allows you to cover multiple scorelines in one bet, providing a middle ground between risk and reward.
🎯 Tip 1 Rationale: Reims to Win
Reims enter this Coupe de France clash with significant momentum at the Stade Auguste-Delaune II. They have secured victories in each of their last four home matches, a run characterized by defensive dominance and clinical attacking output. During this period, they have scored nine goals while conceding only once, establishing their ground as a formidable venue for visiting sides. Their overall form is equally impressive, having won 10 of their last 12 matches in all competitions, showing the consistency required for knockout football.
⚔️ Tactical Indicators:
- Reims average 58% possession and 470 passes per game, allowing them to dictate the tempo.
- The home side registers 12.08 shots per match, with 66% of these occurring inside the penalty area.
- Recent head-to-head dominance shows Reims are unbeaten in their last five meetings with Le Mans.
Le Mans are a resilient outfit, but their lower possession average (48%) and pass accuracy (77%) suggest they will spend long periods defending deep. While they have proven capable of grinding out draws—three in their last six matches—the sheer volume of Reims’ dangerous attacks (54.67 per game) is likely to eventually breach the visitors’ resistance.
Risk Factor: Reims are missing key defensive personnel including Joseph Okumu and Y. Fofana, which could lead to vulnerability against Le Mans’ set-piece efficiency.
🎯 Tip 2 Rationale: Reims 1-0 Le Mans
While Reims are favourites to progress, Le Mans possess a tactical profile designed to frustrate higher-ranked opponents. Over their last 24 matches, Le Mans have actually conceded fewer goals per game (0.88) than Reims (1.00). This defensive stability, combined with 10 clean sheets in that period, suggests they are unlikely to collapse even under sustained pressure. Patrick Videira’s side focuses on structure, making them a difficult block to break down in a cagey cup atmosphere.
📊 Match Dynamics
Reims have already demonstrated they can win tight games, evidenced by their recent 1-0 victory at Clermont Foot and an identical scoreline against Le Mans in their August league meeting. With Keito Nakamura leading the scoring with 8 goals, Reims have the individual quality to find the decisive breakthrough, but Le Mans’ disciplined approach—averaging 14.21 fouls and 2.42 yellow cards per game—is aimed at disrupting flow and keeping the scoreline respectable.
Risk Factor: A late goal from Le Mans’ Dame Guèye or a Reims breakthrough in the first half could force the game to open up, making a narrow scoreline harder to maintain.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
⊕What is Match Result / 1X2?
This is a bet on the final outcome of the game after 90 minutes. ‘1’ represents a Home Win, ‘X’ represents a Draw, and ‘2’ represents an Away Win. It does not include extra time or penalties.
⊕What is Correct Score?
Correct Score involves predicting the exact final score of a match at the end of regulation time. It is a more difficult market to predict than Match Result, which is reflected in higher odds.
⊕What does “odds” mean (fractional vs decimal)?
Odds represent the ratio between the stake and the potential return. Fractional odds (e.g., 5/1) show the profit relative to the stake. Decimal odds (e.g., 6.00) show the total return including the stake.
⊕How does implied probability work?
Implied probability is the conversion of betting odds into a percentage, showing what the odds suggest is the likelihood of an event happening. For example, odds of 1/1 (2.00) suggest a 50% implied probability.
⊕What are the main risks of Correct Score betting?
The main risk is the high margin for error; a single goal in the final seconds of a match can change the scoreline entirely, causing the bet to lose even if the general match narrative was correct.
⊕What is bankroll management?
Bankroll management is a safer-gambling practice where you set a specific budget for betting and only use a small percentage of that budget for any single wager to ensure you play responsibly.
⊕What does “value” mean?
In betting, “value” is a term used to describe a situation where a person believes the probability of an outcome occurring is higher than what the bookmaker’s odds suggest.
⊕What should I do if team news changes?
If key players are ruled out or unexpected lineups are announced, you should reassess the match dynamics as personnel changes can significantly impact a team’s tactical effectiveness.
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