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Can Red Star’s clean-sheet streak survive Celta Vigo’s through-ball threat at the Marakana? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Red Star Belgrade have won seven of their last ten home games and remain unbeaten at the Marakana this European campaign. Celta Vigo have struggled on the road with two losses in three trips, making home advantage and defensive solidity the deciding factors.
Read Rationale ▾
Red Star’s last two home European victories have ended in 1-0 scorelines. Their current streak of four clean sheets and pragmatic style under pressure makes a narrow, disciplined home win the most probable precise outcome.
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Red Star Belgrade vs Celta Vigo Predictions and Best Bets
Red Star Belgrade vs Celta Vigo — William Hill Market Snapshot
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- Clean-sheet obsession: Red Star have conceded just five in seven Europa League matches and have kept four consecutive clean sheets, turning tight games into their comfort zone.
- Mid-table squeeze: This is a direct shoot-out in a congested pack — Red Star are 11th on 13 points, Celta are 14th on 12, with both still scrapping for position.
- Pressure vs precision: Red Star average 16.88 shots per game and 58% possession across their matches listed, while Celta complete 86% of passes — expect a tug-of-war for control.
Defensive Reliability: Clean Sheets & Goals Conceded
A comparison of European defensive records across the seven opening league phase matches.
The Serbian side has relied on defensive organization, currently holding four consecutive clean sheets.
Celta have conceded exactly double the amount of their opponents during this European run.
Attacking Volume: Shot Frequency
Heavy shot volume suggests constant pressure when playing at the Marakana.
The visitors focus on maintaining possession and threading through balls to open defenses.
Thursday night at Stadion Rajko Mitić has that proper Europa League edge: loud, tense, and full of consequence. Red Star Belgrade are in rhythm, winning four of their last six across all competitions, and their European work has been built on the kind of stubborn structure that makes opponents miserable. They’ve ground out results, they’ve kept it tight, and they’ve just taken a 1-0 away win at Malmö to underline that maturity.
Celta Vigo, though, arrive with real punch. Four wins in their last six, 14 Europa League goals in seven matches, and a style that lives for through balls and quick combinations. Kick-off is 20:00 — and if this turns into a battle of patience, Red Star will fancy it. If it turns into a track meet, Celta will fancy it.
Team News & Lineups
Red Star Belgrade (Manager: Dejan Stanković)
- Out/Unavailable:
- J. Enem (unknown injury)
- Probable lineup: Matheus; Seol, Veljkovic, Rodrigao, Tiknizyan; Lucic, Kostov, Elsnik, Krunic; Arnautovic, Katai
- Implication: This looks like a set-up built to stay compact and punch through moments. With Marko Arnautovic up front, Red Star have a focal point who can turn one opening into a finish.
Celta Vigo (Manager: Claudio Giráldez)
- Out/Unavailable: No injuries or suspensions listed.
- Probable lineup: Radu; Alonso, Starfelt, Rodriguez; Mingueza, Roman Gonzalez, Rueda, Carreira; Duran, Aspas, Iglesias
- Implication: The front three is loaded with craft and movement. If Red Star’s back line ever steps late, Iago Aspas and Borja Iglesias will sniff it out.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Red Star Belgrade | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Europa League rank/points | 11th – 13 pts | 14th – 12 pts |
| Europa League record | 4W-1D-2L | 4W-0D-3L |
| Europa League goals (GF/GA) | 6 / 5 | 14 / 10 |
| Shots per game (overall listed) | 16.88 | 12.0 |
| Ball possession (overall listed) | 58% | 52% |
| Pass accuracy (overall listed) | 85% | 86% |
This is the contrast in one glance: Red Star keep games tight and low-scoring in Europe, Celta play like a side that backs themselves to score more than you. The key question is whether Red Star can drag Celta into a chess match — or whether Celta can crack it open early and force the Marakana into a different type of night.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Red Star’s plan: keep it rigid, win the territory, squeeze the life out of it
Red Star’s Europa League campaign has been defined by restraint. Six scored, five conceded is not glamorous — it’s calculated. They’re happy to win ugly, happy to manage space, and they’ve stacked four straight clean sheets by making opponents play where they don’t want to play.
Expect them to defend with discipline, then step forward in bursts. Their overall shooting volume (16.88 per match) suggests they can pile pressure on when they do get a foothold, and the presence of Arnautovic gives them a direct route: early ball into him, runners around him, and chaos in the box.
Key individuals matter here. Rade Krunic (rating 7.09) and Seol Young-Woo (rating 7.01, 1 assist) look like the glue and the outlet — the players who stop this becoming frantic.
Celta’s plan: slide passes through the middle and finish the move
Celta’s strengths scream “cut you open”: through balls, quick short passing, and a knack for finishing. They’ve scored 14 in seven Europa League matches — that’s a team that creates, and keeps creating.
The worry for them is physicality and aerial work. Celta’s weakness is aerial duels, and Red Star have big bodies and a taste for direct moments. If Celta can’t secure second balls, they’ll spend spells pinned in.
Still, Celta’s passing numbers are a weapon. 86% pass accuracy with a front line featuring Aspas (2 goals, 3 assists in LaLiga) and Iglesias (8 LaLiga goals, 2 assists) gives them the tools to hurt a side that switches off for even one run.
The decisive tension: Celta’s incision vs Red Star’s denial
This match is a clash of extremes: Red Star’s best work is denying the centre and owning the emotional rhythm; Celta’s best work is threading the centre and speeding the game up. If Red Star keep it sterile, frustration grows for the visitors. If Celta score first, Red Star have to open up — and that’s when the fixture can flip into something wild.
Key Moments to Watch
- First-contact battles: Celta’s aerial weakness meets a Red Star side that can go direct and flood the box behind Arnautovic.
- Through-ball timing: Celta are very strong at slipping runners in. Red Star’s back line can’t afford a single lazy step when Aspas drops in and turns.
- Discipline swings: Celta rack up 63 yellow cards across their matches listed, Red Star sit at 40 — this could get feisty if the rhythm breaks down.
What could go wrong?
For Red Star, it’s overconfidence in the clean-sheet run: one mistimed press, one clipped pass in behind, and Celta have the finishers to punish it. For Celta, it’s the opposite: lose too many duels, concede too many corners and second phases, and you end up defending wave after wave in a stadium that feeds on chaos.
Best Bet for Red Star Belgrade vs Celta Vigo
Can Red Star’s Fortress Withstand Celta’s Precision Passing?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Home Form | Red Star: 7 wins in last 10 | Back Home Win |
| Away Slump | Celta: 2 losses in 3 EL trips | Home Win/Draw |
| Defense | Red Star: 4 clean sheets in row | Under 2.5 Goals |
Red Star Belgrade to Win
Red Star Belgrade enter this final league phase encounter with a formidable record at the Marakana. They have won seven of their last ten home matches, suffering only a single defeat in that span. In the Europa League, they remain unbeaten in Belgrade this season, having already secured victories over Lille and FCSB. This home dominance is the foundation of their 11th-place standing and provides them with a superior chance of automatic knockout progression.
Celta Vigo, by contrast, have struggled to translate their domestic form to European travel. They have lost two of their three away trips in the league phase, including a loss to Ludogorets. While their overall attacking output of 14 goals is high, their defense has conceded 10 times, highlighting an imbalance that Red Star is prepared to exploit. Celta’s recent domestic results further indicate a dip in away performance, evidenced by a Copa del Rey exit at Albacete and just one win in their last four road games.
Tactically, Red Star operate with a pragmatic, high-pressure system at home. They average 16.88 shots per game and maintain 58% possession, which effectively suppresses the opposition’s rhythm. Celta’s reliance on through balls and precise combinations (86% pass accuracy) is neutralized when Red Star flood the midfield and win the aerial battles. Without the ability to find space behind the backline, Celta’s primary scoring routes are restricted.
The psychological edge lies with the hosts. Red Star arrive with excellent momentum, having won four of their last five matches, including a vital 1-0 away victory at Malmö. They have kept four consecutive clean sheets in this competition, demonstrating a level of defensive cohesion that Celta lacks. This structural advantage, combined with the hostile atmosphere of the Stadion Rajko Mitić, makes a home victory the most decisive outcome.
What could go wrong?
Celta Vigo’s attacking quality remains a persistent threat, particularly through Iago Aspas and Borja Iglesias. If Celta manage to score an early goal, Red Star’s focus on defensive organization could be compromised, forcing them to open up and risk conceding on the counter-attack. Additionally, Celta’s superior passing accuracy could allow them to sustain possession and tire the Red Star midfield, potentially finding a late breakthrough if the home side loses concentration.
Correct Score Lean
Red Star Belgrade 1-0 Celta Vigo
This scoreline represents a recurring pattern for the Serbian side in Europe. Red Star’s last two home victories in the Europa League have both ended in 1-0 scorelines. They have conceded only one goal across their last five home fixtures in all competitions, proving they are masters of grinding out narrow results. Given the high stakes of this final matchday, a single moment of quality from Marko Arnautovic or Aleksandar Katai is likely to be enough for a side that has made defensive clean sheets their primary comfort zone.
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