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Can Al-Nassr’s front four light up Al Awwal Park again, or will Al-Taawoun spoil the chase? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Read Rationale ▾
Al-Nassr have scored in 50 straight league games and average 19.1 shots at home. However, zero clean sheets in their last six matches combined with Al-Taawoun’s 2.13 goals-per-game away average makes a home win with goals at both ends the primary value play.
Read Rationale ▾
Al-Taawoun are undefeated at half-time in 15 straight games, pointing to a competitive match. Al-Nassr’s recent 2-1 wins and their lack of clean sheets suggest they will secure three points by a narrow margin while allowing the prolific visitors onto the scoresheet.
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Al-Nassr vs Al-Taawoun Predictions and Best Bets
Al-Nassr vs Al-Taawoun — bet365 Market Snapshot
Pricing based on analysis of the Saudi Pro League matchup at Al-Awwal Park.
Al-Nassr arrive as heavy favorites given their high shot volume and home goalscoring record.
High goal expectations are driven by the hosts’ 44-goal tally and recent lack of clean sheets.
- Goal machine, no pause button: Al-Nassr have scored 44 goals in 16 league matches and have hit 1+ goal in 50 straight Pro League fixtures — relentless output, every single week.
- Chaos at both ends lately: Al-Nassr have failed to keep a clean sheet in six successive games across all competitions, and in their last six league matches both teams have scored every time.
- Heavyweight matchup near the top: Al-Nassr sit on 37 points with a +26 goal difference, while Al-Taawoun are right there on 35 points with 35 scored and 19 conceded — this is pressure football.
Attacking Volume: Shots and Conversion
A comparison of offensive output shows Al-Nassr’s clear dominance in creating shooting opportunities.
With 44 goals in 16 matches, the hosts maintain an elite scoring rate through high-volume shooting.
The visitors produce fewer attempts but remain clinical, averaging over 2 goals per away fixture.
Defensive Stability: Recent Clean Sheets
Current defensive form highlights a period of vulnerability for the home side.
Despite their league position, Al-Nassr have struggled to prevent opponents from scoring in recent weeks.
Al-Taawoun have maintained defensive discipline across the campaign, conceding just 19 goals in 16 matches.
Monday evening brings a proper top-end scrap at Al Awwal Park, with kick-off at 17:30 and the league’s chasing pack watching closely. Al-Nassr, under Jorge Jesus, are second with 37 points from 16 matches, and they know every win keeps the heat on leaders Al Hilal.
The mood has flipped fast. Three straight league defeats early in January rocked them — losses to Al Ahli, Al Qadisiyah and Al Hilal — but the response has been loud: 3-2 over Al Shabab, then 2-1 at Damac. Al-Taawoun arrive with their own ambitions of closing the gap near the top end, sitting fifth on 35 points. This fixture has bite, pace and plenty riding on it.
Team News & Lineups
Al-Nassr absences
- J. Sequeira (unknown injury)
- S. Al Naji (cruciate ligament tear)
- M. Simakan (unknown injury)
Al-Taawoun absences
- None listed.
Al-Nassr possible starting lineup
Krepski; Al-Ghanam, Simakan, Martinez, Al-Nasser; Mane, Angelo Gabriel, Brozovic, Coman; Felix, Ronaldo
Al-Taawoun possible starting lineup
Maylson; Alaeli, Sembene, Al-Dossari, Mahzari; Fulgini, Mahdioui, Hugo; Kuwaykibi, Martinez, Zambrano
What it means
If Mohamed Simakan is missing as the injury list suggests, that’s a potential crack right where Al-Nassr need calm. The good news for Jesus? He’s still got the star power to blow games open — Cristiano Ronaldo, João Félix, Sadio Mané, Kingsley Coman — and a midfield organiser in Marcelo Brozovic.
Al-Taawoun look built to stay competitive in the trenches: Roger Martínez leads the scoring with 14 league goals, and they’ve got support from Angelo Fulgini and Musa Barrow. They won’t be coming to admire the lights.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Al-Nassr | Al-Taawoun |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 5th |
| Points (16 matches) | 37 | 35 |
| Goals scored | 44 | 35 |
| Goals conceded | 18 | 19 |
| Avg shots per game | 17.27 | 10.44 |
| Ball possession | 62% | 50% |
| Pass accuracy | 88% | 85% |
| Corners (avg per game) | 6.46 | 3.28 |
| Clean sheets (total) | 10 | 6 |
Al-Nassr’s numbers scream dominance: more of the ball, more shots, more corners, more pressure. Al-Taawoun’s figures are tighter and more pragmatic — fewer attempts, but a defensive record almost level with Al-Nassr (19 conceded vs 18). That combination usually produces a match where Al-Nassr set the tempo and Al-Taawoun try to land the cleaner punches.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Al-Nassr’s possession squeeze
Jesus has Al-Nassr playing proactive football — and the raw profile backs it up. 62% possession, 88% passing, and a shot volume of 17.27 per game turns matches into long spells of defending for the opponent.
That’s where the front four becomes a problem you can’t “mark” so much as “survive.” With Ronaldo (16 league goals) and Félix (13) both starting, Al-Taawoun’s back line will be forced into constant decisions: step up and risk space behind, or drop off and let Al-Nassr camp outside the box. Either way, the pressure brings corners — and Al-Nassr average 6.46 per match, a steady drip of danger.
Al-Taawoun’s route to chaos: timing and punch
Al-Taawoun won’t win a slow possession game here if Al-Nassr are on it. Their path is to make the match uneven: break the rhythm, turn transitions into chances, and take advantage of the one area Al-Nassr haven’t nailed lately — clean sheets.
Al-Nassr have gone six straight games without one, and in the league their last six matches have all seen both teams score. That’s the invitation. If Roger Martínez (14 goals) can pin the centre-backs and bring runners into play, Al-Taawoun can turn fewer shots into higher-stakes moments.
Where the match can swing
This could become a “waves vs wedges” contest. Al-Nassr push wave after wave through possession and shot volume; Al-Taawoun look for wedges — quick bursts that split shape, plus the psychological lift of staying level deep into the match. Add Taawoun’s habit of staying in games — undefeated at half-time in 15 straight league matches — and you’ve got a side that won’t panic if the first half-hour is one-way traffic.
Key Moments to Watch
- First-half resistance: Al-Taawoun are undefeated at half-time in 15 straight league games. If they keep the door shut early, tension spreads fast.
- Corners and sustained pressure: Al-Nassr average 6.46 corners per game to Al-Taawoun’s 3.28. That’s territory, and territory becomes fatigue.
- The finishing duel: Cristiano Ronaldo (16) and João Félix (13) versus Roger Martínez (14). If this turns into a trading match, those names decide it.
What could go wrong?
Al-Nassr’s attack can be unstoppable — but lately they’ve carried a soft underbelly. Six games without a clean sheet keeps opponents alive, and once a match gets messy, control can disappear in a flash. For Al-Taawoun, the risk is obvious: if they sit too deep for too long, Al-Nassr’s shot volume (17.27 per game) eventually turns into an avalanche. One lapse, one cheap corner conceded, and the balance shifts.
Best Bet for Al-Nassr vs Al-Taawoun
Can Al-Nassr’s front four light up Al Awwal Park again, or will Al-Taawoun spoil the chase?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Attack | Nassr 2.75 gls/gm; Taawoun 2.19 | Over 2.5 Goals |
| Defense | Nassr 0 clean sheets in 6 games | Back BTTS |
| Pace | Nassr 19.1 shots; Taawoun 10.9 | Home Win |
| H2H | Al-Nassr 5-0 win in last meeting | Handicap Win |
Al-Nassr to Win & Both Teams to Score
Al-Nassr are a relentless scoring machine, having found the net in 50 consecutive Saudi Pro League fixtures. They average 19.1 shots per game and maintain 60% ball possession, creating a high-volume attacking environment that eventually breaks down any opposition. With Cristiano Ronaldo and João Félix both on 16 and 13 league goals respectively, the hosts possess the elite finishing required to secure a victory at Al Awwal Park.
However, this offensive dominance is currently undermined by a significant lack of defensive stability. Al-Nassr have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last six matches across all competitions. In the league, their last six fixtures have all resulted in both teams finding the back of the net. The potential absence of Mohamed Simakan in defense creates further opportunities for a potent Al-Taawoun side to exploit.
Al-Taawoun arrive as a formidable threat, sitting fifth in the table and averaging 2.13 goals per game in away matches. Their talisman Roger Martínez is in exceptional form with 14 league goals, including a recent hat-trick. They are a team built for high-stakes encounters, remaining undefeated at half-time in 15 straight league matches. This resilience means they are unlikely to be overwhelmed early and will maintain the composure to capitalize on Al-Nassr’s defensive lapses.
The tactical dynamic involves Al-Nassr setting a ferocious tempo while Al-Taawoun look to land clinical counter-punches. Given Al-Nassr’s 88% passing accuracy and 7.5 corners per game, they will dominate territory and shot volume. This pressure results in goals for the home side, but their inability to shut the door at the back makes the win and BTTS combination the most authoritative selection.
What could go wrong?
The main risk is Al-Taawoun’s pragmatic defensive structure. They have conceded only 19 goals this season—nearly identical to Al-Nassr’s 18—and if they manage to restrict the home side’s 19.1 shots to low-quality attempts, the game could settle into a lower-scoring draw. Additionally, if Al-Nassr’s high-pressure game results in an early blowout similar to their previous 5-0 win over the visitors, Al-Taawoun may lose the morale needed to strike back.
Correct Score Lean
Al-Nassr 2-1 Al-Taawoun
A 2-1 victory for the hosts is the most logical outcome based on current trends. Al-Nassr have recently secured 2-1 wins against Damac and Al-Shabab, demonstrating a pattern of winning while conceding. Al-Taawoun’s discipline is evidenced by their 15-game streak of not trailing at the interval, but Al-Nassr’s average of 3.13 goals at home and the lethal form of Ronaldo and Félix suggest they will find the decisive edge. Roger Martínez is highly likely to score for the visitors, but Al-Nassr’s shot volume will eventually prove too much to absorb.
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