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Can in-form Estoril turn their Lisbon surge into a statement against Guimarães? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Estoril are in prolific form, scoring 33 goals this season. Guimarães average over 13 shots per game and face an Estoril defense vulnerable to long shots and counters. With both teams struggling to defend transitions, goals at both ends are a mathematical certainty.
Read Rationale ▾
Estoril’s momentum with three wins in four makes them slight favorites at home. Their superior goal tally (33 vs 18) and the creative presence of João Carvalho suggest they will out-punch a Guimarães side that remains dangerous but susceptible to counter-attacks.
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Estoril Praia vs Vitoria de Guimaraes Predictions and Best Bets
Estoril vs Vitória — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and pricing based on match analysis.
Prices suggest a very tight encounter with Estoril’s home form giving them a slight edge in the match outcome markets.
Implied probabilities strongly support goals at both ends given Estoril’s scoring record and Guimarães’ shot volume.
- Resurgent momentum: Estoril have taken three wins from their last four league matches, a lift that’s pushed them up to ninth and right onto Guimarães’ shoulder.
- A creator-in-chief pulling strings: João Carvalho has 5 goals and 7 assists in 18 league appearances, giving Estoril a constant final-ball threat behind Yanis Begraoui.
- Two styles, one knife-edge: Estoril average 50.8% possession with 12.3 shots per game, while Guimarães post 49.4% possession but fire 13.2 shots per game — expect a tight midfield scrap and busy boxes.
Attacking Firepower: Total Goals Scored
Estoril have been significantly more clinical this season, nearly doubling the scoring output of their upcoming opponents.
Their high scoring rate is a key factor in their recent surge up the Primeira Liga table.
Despite fewer goals, Vitória sit higher in the table, suggesting a more efficient points-per-goal ratio.
Pressure Metrics: Shots per Game
While Estoril score more, Guimarães actually produce a higher volume of attempts on goal.
They make their chances count, showing a strong conversion rate across the campaign.
Guimarães consistently test opposition keepers and rely on shot volume to find breakthroughs.
Saturday night in Lisbon, Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota gets a fixture that feels like a table-shifter. Estoril Praia are riding a proper wave under Ian Cathro, with three wins in their last four league games and confidence “as high as it’s been” in this campaign. They’ve climbed into ninth, and they’re not just ticking over — they’ve even outscored the points return from their earlier four-match unbeaten spell.
The visitors bring their own edge. Vitória de Guimarães sit directly above Estoril, only two points clear, so this one has immediate consequence. Kick-off is 20:30, and it has the feel of a contest where one sharp spell in the final third decides everything.
Team News & Lineups
Injuries / Absences
- No specific injury or suspension details are provided for either side.
Estoril possible starting lineup
- Robles
- Bacher, Boma, Amaral
- R Sanchez, Holsgrove, Orellana, J Carvalho
- Guitane, Marques, Begraoui
Vitória de Guimarães possible starting lineup
- Castillo
- Maga, Nobrega, Abascal, Lebedenko
- Nogueira, Mitrovic
- Camara, Samu, Saviolo
- Ndoye
What it implies
- Estoril’s shape looks built for width and quick releases: strong wing play with Ricard Sánchez and support runners, plus João Carvalho as the connector into Begraoui.
- Guimarães bring a more “hold your nerve” profile: they’re very strong at protecting a lead, and their set-piece threat can turn tight games in a moment.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric (Liga Portugal) | Estoril Praia | Vitória de Guimarães |
|---|---|---|
| League games played | 18 | 18 |
| League goals scored | 33 | 18 |
| Shots per game | 12.3 | 13.2 |
| Possession | 50.8% | 49.4% |
| Pass accuracy | 80.7% | 81.3% |
| Aerials won | 13.6 | 13.9 |
| Team rating | 6.59 | 6.48 |
Estoril bring the louder attacking output — 33 goals to 18 — and that shapes the mood: they’ll want the game played in Guimarães territory. But Guimarães actually take more shots per game (13.2), so Estoril can’t assume control equals comfort. Pass accuracy is almost identical, aerial numbers are close, and that hints at a physical, second-ball contest where one messy phase could be decisive.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Estoril’s right-side bite vs Guimarães’ left-sided width
Estoril’s identity leans into attacking down the right and asking questions wide. That can make them feel relentless on home turf: switch it quickly, hit the channel, and get bodies arriving in the box. With João Carvalho in the XI, there’s a clear supply line — 7 assists doesn’t happen by accident, and it matches the idea of Estoril creating through individual skill and set pieces.
Guimarães aren’t shy either. They want to play with width, attack down the left, and keep the ball in the opposition half, mixing crosses with long shots. On paper, that creates a mirror: both teams want territory, both want delivery, and both are comfortable taking shots.
The big fault line: counters and control
This is where it gets spicy. Estoril have obvious punch, but they also carry defensive risks: they can be weak defending counter-attacks, and very weak defending against long shots. That’s a flashing light when Guimarães actively look to take long shots and spend time high up the pitch. If Estoril commit too many bodies forward, Guimarães have a clean route to threaten quickly — especially if second balls drop around the edge of the area.
The other warning sign sits with the visitors: Guimarães are very weak defending counter-attacks. That’s an invitation for Estoril to play with a bit more bite between the lines — win it, move it early, and let Begraoui attack space before Guimarães can reset.
Where it swings
If Estoril turn possession into tempo, they can pin Guimarães back and force desperate clearances. If Guimarães ride the early pressure and get the game into set pieces and broken phases, their ability to protect a lead becomes a real weapon.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces as momentum-shifters: Estoril are strong attacking set pieces, and Guimarães are strong there too — deliveries into the mixer could decide it.
- The long-shot trigger: Estoril’s vulnerability to long shots meets a Guimarães side that likes to pull the trigger from range. That’s a high-risk collision.
- Counter-attack chess: Both teams have a glaring weakness defending counters — the first sloppy pass in midfield could instantly become a big chance.
- Creative hubs under pressure: If Guimarães can crowd João Carvalho, Estoril’s final pass may get blunted; if he wriggles free, Begraoui is a constant threat in the net.
What could go wrong?
For Estoril, it’s over-committing: pushing the wing-backs on, losing one duel, then getting hit with a quick break or a strike from distance. For Guimarães, it’s letting the game stretch — because if transitions open up, their counter-defending weakness can get exposed fast.
Best Bet for Estoril vs Guimarães
Can the resurgent hosts keep their scoring streak alive against a direct table rival?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Scoring | Estoril 33 goals; Guimarães 18 | Back Over 2.5 |
| Attack | Estoril 12.3 shots; Guimarães 13.2 | Both Teams Score |
| Creativity | Carvalho (12 G/A) vs Ndoye threat | Over 1.5 Goals |
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Estoril Praia are currently the most dangerous side outside the top tier in Liga Portugal, having netted 33 goals in 18 games. This prolific output is the driving force behind their surge to ninth place. Under Ian Cathro, the team has found a clinical edge, winning three of their last four matches. This scoring consistency makes it nearly impossible to imagine them failing to find the net at the Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota.
The presence of João Carvalho is the primary catalyst for this offensive success. With 5 goals and 7 assists, he is the designated creator-in-chief. His ability to link midfield play to Yanis Begraoui ensures Estoril creates high-quality chances regardless of the opposition. Given they average over 12 shots per game and hold 50.8% possession, they have the territorial dominance to force Guimarães into defensive errors.
However, the defensive data creates a perfect environment for a “Both Teams to Score” scenario. Estoril are noted for being weak at defending counter-attacks and specifically vulnerable to long-range shots. Guimarães arrive with a tactical profile that targets these exact flaws. The visitors average 13.2 shots per game and actively seek opportunities to strike from distance.
Guimarães sit two points ahead in the table and are particularly strong at attacking down the left flank. While they have only scored 18 goals compared to Estoril’s 33, their shot volume suggests they are underperforming their metrics and are due for a conversion uptick. With both sides sharing a critical weakness in defending transitions, the first half-clearance or misplaced pass is likely to result in a direct scoring opportunity for the opponent.
What could go wrong?
The risk lies in Guimarães adopting a “hold your nerve” defensive stance to protect their two-point lead in the standings. If the visitors focus entirely on sitting deep to nullify João Carvalho and ignore their own long-shot triggers, the game could stagnate into a low-possession midfield battle. Estoril would then have to rely solely on set pieces to break a disciplined Guimarães block.
Correct Score Lean
Estoril 2-1 Guimarães
Estoril’s superior attacking metrics provide the edge in a match where both teams are likely to score. Having outscored Guimarães 33 to 18 this season, the hosts possess the finishing quality to capitalize on the visitors’ inability to defend counter-attacks. While Guimarães will exploit Estoril’s vulnerability to long shots to get on the scoresheet, the creative depth provided by Carvalho and the home-ground momentum should see Estoril secure a narrow victory. This scoreline reflects the narrow two-point gap between the sides while acknowledging Estoril’s significantly higher scoring rate.
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