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Pittodrie pressure-cooker: can Aberdeen finally turn possession into points against a Livingston side running out of road? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Both sides struggle defensively, with Aberdeen very weak at defending set pieces and Livingston strong in the air. Aberdeen’s high shot volume and Livingston’s counter-attacking vulnerability ensure chances at both ends, making goals for both teams highly likely in a high-stakes, chaotic encounter.
Read Rationale ▾
Aberdeen are unbeaten in seven against Livingston and have the shot volume to edge this. While Livingston’s aerial threat should see them score, their poor record in protecting leads and defending transitions suggests Aberdeen will find the winner in a tight 2-1 victory.
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Aberdeen vs Livingston Predictions and Best Bets
Aberdeen vs Livingston — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample William Hill odds based on match data.
Aberdeen are clear favourites at Pittodrie given Livingston’s 20-game winless run, though the visitors’ ability to draw matches remains a factor.
With both teams keeping very few clean sheets this season, the market indicates a high chance of scoring at both ends.
- Win drought meets win drought: Aberdeen have gone six league fixtures without a win, while Livingston have gone 20 league games without victory — something has to give at 15:00.
- Pittodrie edge in this match-up: Aberdeen are unbeaten in their last seven Premiership matches against Livingston, and there have been three draws in the last six head-to-heads.
- Clean sheets are rare, chaos isn’t: Aberdeen have just 9 clean sheets in 33 matches (0.27 per game), while Livingston have 3 in 28 (0.11 per game) — neither looks built for a quiet afternoon.
Attacking Intent: Shots per Match
Aberdeen generate a higher volume of attempts per game, though Livingston’s more direct style results in frequent dangerous attacks in the final third.
Despite the volume, clinical finishing remains an area for improvement for the Pittodrie side.
Livingston rely on aerial dominance and long balls to create their scoring opportunities.
Defensive Record: Clean Sheets
Both teams have struggled significantly to keep opponents out this season, contributing to their current positions in the table.
Lapses at set pieces have been a recurring theme for the home side.
Livingston’s defensive line has found it difficult to prevent high-quality chances for opponents.
Pittodrie has that uneasy, edgy feel again. Aberdeen come into Saturday afternoon needing a league win not just for points, but for oxygen — a run of six Premiership games without victory has dragged them into the thick of it. Livingston arrive in even deeper trouble, rooted to the bottom and still searching for a league breakthrough after a grim 20-game winless stretch.
It’s also a fixture with real narrative weight. Aberdeen sit 8th on 25 points, Livingston 12th on 11, and the gap matters because both sides have spent too many weeks chasing games rather than controlling them. Peter Leven leads Aberdeen into another pressure moment, while David Martindale needs his Livingston group to turn resilience into something tangible — fast.
Team News & Lineups
Absences
- No injuries or suspensions are listed for either side.
Aberdeen (Manager: Peter Leven) — possible XI
Mitov; Devlin, Knoester, Milne, Gyamfi; Cameron, Clarkson; Milanovic, Armstrong, Polvara; Nisbet
Implication: Aberdeen’s shape points to a side that wants runners around the No.9 and quick combinations. With Stuart Armstrong listed behind the striker, the creative burden looks set to fall on his decision-making in the final third.
Livingston (Manager: David Martindale) — possible XI
Prior; Brenet, Finlayson, McGowan, Montano; Susoho, Tait; Smith, Arfield, McLennan; Muirhead
Implication: Livingston’s personnel screams directness and territory. With Finlayson and McGowan at the back and wide players ready to stretch the pitch, the plan looks built around long balls, second balls, and forcing Aberdeen into hurried defending.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Aberdeen | Livingston |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th | 12th |
| Points | 25 | 11 |
| Premiership goals (22 apps) | 20 | 22 |
| Premiership goals conceded (Aberdeen listed in standings) | 28 | 42 |
| Shots per game (Premiership) | 12.3 | 10.0 |
| Possession % (Premiership) | 47.3% | 46.4% |
| Pass % (Premiership) | 78.9% | 75.5% |
| Aerials won (Premiership) | 14.9 | 21.0 |
What it says about the game: Aberdeen are set up to have a little more control — slightly higher possession, sharper pass accuracy, and more shots. But Livingston carry a clear physical edge in the air, and that matters because Aberdeen’s defensive profile contains a big warning: defending set pieces is “very weak”, and aerial duels are also “very weak”. If this turns into a scrap of second balls and dead-balls, Aberdeen have to survive their own danger zone.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Aberdeen’s plan: probe, punch, and go again
Aberdeen’s attacking identity is clear. They like counter attacks, they create long-shot opportunities, and they try to slide passes through lines with through balls often. Add in “attacking down the left”, and you’ve got a picture: lure Livingston forward, nick it, and break with purpose into the channels.
But here’s the catch: Aberdeen’s weaknesses scream “self-sabotage”. They struggle with finishing scoring chances, they’re very weak at avoiding individual errors, and they’re vulnerable defending set pieces and aerial duels. That combination can make a team look in control… right up until the moment they aren’t. If Aberdeen dominate spells without landing a punch, anxiety will creep in quickly.
Personnel-wise, Mats Knoester stands out as a stabiliser. He’s one of Aberdeen’s top-rated performers (6.97) and leads their aerials won list (3.8). With Livingston likely to go long, his duels and positioning become mission-critical. Further forward, Jesper Karlsson is Aberdeen’s top league scorer with 5, and if Aberdeen are going to turn territory into goals, he has to be decisive in the moments that matter.
Livingston’s plan: width, long balls, and a fight for every yard
Livingston’s style is unapologetic: long balls, play with width, and an aggressive approach. They’re also noted as strong at stealing the ball from the opposition and very strong at coming back from losing positions. That last trait is massive in a match where the crowd tension can swing the atmosphere.
They won’t want a slow, tidy game. Their listed weaknesses include keeping possession of the ball, protecting the lead, and defending counter attacks — so the safest path is to make this messy and territorial, then flood the danger areas. Jeremy Bokila (Livingston’s top league scorer with 5) is the obvious reference point for direct play, while Cristian Montaño brings real output from wide areas: 2 goals and 3 assists.
The numbers also suggest Livingston can generate pressure. Their “dangerous attacks” average is listed higher (49.29 vs Aberdeen’s 37.58), even though Aberdeen shoot more. That can look like this: Aberdeen have more attempts, Livingston have more chaos moments in and around the box.
Where it could be won
- Set pieces and crosses: Both teams are weak defending set pieces, but Aberdeen are hinting at a bigger problem — “very weak” in that area and in aerial duels. Livingston’s aerial strength (team 21 aerials won; Finlayson 3.9, McGowan 2.7, Tete Yengi 2.6) makes that a clear route to hurt them.
- Transition moments: Aberdeen’s strength in counter attacks meets Livingston’s weakness defending counter attacks. If Aberdeen can be clean in the first pass after winning it, Livingston can be opened up quickly.
- Composure in the final third: Aberdeen’s shot volume (12.3 per game) is healthier than Livingston’s (10.0), but their finishing is a listed weakness. That makes decision-making — shot vs slip pass vs recycle — the defining theme.
Key Moments to Watch
- First contact on long balls: If Aberdeen lose too many first headers and second balls, Livingston will live in their half and force ugly defending. Watch Knoester’s duel success early — it sets the tone.
- Wide overloads: Livingston “play with width” and are weak against attacks down the wings — that’s an invitation for Aberdeen to pin their full-backs back and attack the outside channels.
- Discipline and cheap free-kicks: Aberdeen are weak at avoiding fouling in dangerous areas, and Livingston are very weak at it too. With both averaging over 13 fouls per game (Aberdeen 13.21, Livingston 13.29) and over 2.2 yellows per game, set-piece concessions could decide momentum swings.
- Late-game mentality: Livingston’s ability to come back from losing positions is rated very strong. Aberdeen have struggled to protect themselves against errors and set pieces. If this is tight late on, the match could flip in a flash.
What could go wrong?
For Aberdeen, the nightmare script is familiar: decent spells, missed chances, then one needless concession — a sloppy turnover, a soft foul, or a set-piece lapse. For Livingston, the risk is that their direct approach hands Aberdeen transition chances, and their own weaknesses in protecting a lead or handling counters leave them exposed the moment they push numbers forward.
Best Bet for Aberdeen vs Livingston
Who can keep their composure in a Pittodrie pressure-cooker where neither side seems capable of keeping a clean sheet?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Defensive Form | ABD 9 clean sheets in 33; LIV 3 in 28 | Back BTTS |
| History | ABD unbeaten in 7 vs LIV; 3 draws in last 6 | ABD Win/Draw |
| Set Pieces | ABD “Very Weak” air; LIV 21.0 aerials won | LIV to Score |
| Attack | ABD 12.3 shots/gm; LIV 10.0 shots/gm | Over 2.5 Goals |
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) & Over 2.5 Goals
The tactical profiles of these two sides point directly toward a high-scoring, chaotic afternoon at Pittodrie. Aberdeen enter this fixture with a glaring defensive vulnerability that Livingston are perfectly equipped to exploit. The home side is officially rated as very weak in both aerial duels and defending set pieces. When you contrast this with Livingston’s physical approach—averaging 21.0 aerials won per game—it is almost certain that the visitors will find joy from dead-balls or direct long balls into the box.
Livingston’s 20-game winless drought is a staggering statistic, but they remain a dangerous side in transition and are very strong at coming back from losing positions. This means even if Aberdeen take an early lead, the game is unlikely to settle. Aberdeen’s own defensive record is poor, managing clean sheets in only 27% of their matches this season. They frequently suffer from individual errors, which provides a lifeline for a Livingston team that “plays with width” and forces dangerous attacks.
Aberdeen have the offensive quality to punish Livingston’s own flaws. The visitors are weak at defending counter-attacks and protecting leads, which plays right into the hands of an Aberdeen side that excels at breaking quickly. With Aberdeen averaging over 12 shots per game and Jesper Karlsson finding the net five times already, they have the volume to break through a Livingston defense that has kept just three clean sheets in 28 league outings.
This match is a collision of two desperate defenses and two direct attacking styles. Given that both teams average over 13 fouls per game, the high volume of free-kicks and corners will likely lead to multiple scoring opportunities at both ends of the pitch.
What could go wrong?
The primary risk is a “frozen” performance due to the high stakes. If Aberdeen dominate possession but fail to convert their chances—a listed weakness—and Livingston sit extremely deep in a low block, the game could stagnate into a low-scoring affair defined by missed opportunities.
Correct Score Lean
Aberdeen 2-1 Livingston
Aberdeen hold a significant historical advantage at home, remaining unbeaten in their last seven Premiership meetings against Livingston. While the visitors’ aerial strength will likely yield a goal from a set piece or cross, Aberdeen’s superior shot volume and counter-attacking proficiency should see them edge it. Livingston’s struggle to protect leads and their tendency to concede from counters suggest that as the game stretches, Aberdeen’s technical players like Stuart Armstrong will find the spaces needed to secure a narrow victory.
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