bet365
BetMGM
William Hill
Betfred
BetUK
LiveScoreBet
10Bet
Virgin Bet
Can Spalletti flip the script at Allianz Stadium, or will Mourinho’s men keep their grip on this fixture? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale▾
Juventus fire 18.5 shots per game and have 12 goals in six matches. Benfica features Pavlidis with 17 goals and have beaten Juve in seven of nine meetings. Both sides show high offensive output and defensive vulnerabilities in this specific European head-to-head history.
Read Rationale▾
Juventus dominate shot volume but struggle with individual errors. Benfica are disciplined and excel at holding shapes. With Juventus missing Vlahovic’s clinical finishing, a low-scoring draw reflects Juventus’ territorial dominance met by Benfica’s resilience and tactical discipline under pressure.
Readers’ Tip
Vote your pick — quick & anonymous
Terms & Conditions (tap to view)
Juventus vs Benfica Predictions and Best Bets
Juventus vs Benfica — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Despite historical struggles against Benfica, Juventus enter as clear favourites to use their home advantage and territorial dominance.
Both sides show consistent attacking output in Europe, making a clean sheet for either side unlikely based on shot volume.
- Head-to-Head Weight: Juventus have lost the last three Champions League meetings with Benfica and have been beaten seven times in nine overall — a rivalry that keeps turning the same way.
- League-Phase Pressure: Juventus sit 17th on nine points after six games, Benfica are 25th on six — both are in the scrap, but Juventus can see eighth place just three points away.
- Chance Volume Clash: In the Champions League, Juventus are firing 18.5 shots per game with 12 goals in six, while Benfica are on 12.5 shots per game with six goals — one side is creating far more, the other needs to be sharper.
Attacking Volume: Champions League Shots
Juventus have adopted a high-pressure approach in Europe, firing significantly more attempts per game than Benfica.
With 12 goals in 6 games, their creative metrics suggest a constant threat to the opposition goal.
Benfica focus on efficiency over quantity, scoring 6 times from a lower shot frequency.
Defensive Stability: Total Clean Sheets
The difference in total shutouts across all competitions highlights the defensive structures of both clubs this season.
Spalletti’s side has a 36% clean sheet rate, reflecting a style that occasionally leaves the back line exposed.
Mourinho’s men have kept shutouts in 56% of their fixtures, showing a highly disciplined defensive block.
Allianz Stadium is set for a proper Champions League night — and Juventus badly need it to feel like a reset. Luciano Spalletti’s side arrive off a shock 1-0 Serie A defeat at Cagliari, a result that jarred with a run that had them unbeaten in seven before that stumble. Now the task is clear: turn frustration into control, and turn control into points in a league-phase table where fine margins decide everything.
Benfica, led by José Mourinho, bring edge and belief to a fixture that has been kind to them. Juventus have been on the wrong end of this match-up too often, and the pressure is amplified by the standings: Juventus are already guaranteed a playoff spot, but they’re chasing more. This one has tension, history, and a tactical chess match written all over it.
Team News & Lineups
Juventus absences
- Dušan Vlahović (Adductor Injury, out until 02.03.2026)
- Daniele Rugani (Calf Injury, out until 02.02.2026)
- J. Rouhi (Muscular Problems)
Benfica absences
- None listed.
Juventus probable XI (Spalletti)
Di Gregorio; Kalulu, Bremer, Kelly, Cambiaso; Locatelli, Thuram; Conceição, McKennie, Yildiz; David
Benfica probable XI (Mourinho)
Trubin; Dedic, Otamendi, Araujo, Dahl; Barreiro, Aursnes; Prestianni, Sudakov, Schjelderup; Pavlidis
What it means
Juventus losing Vlahović strips out a natural penalty-box reference point, so the burden shifts to Jonathan David to connect play and finish moves — with Kenan Yildiz the spark around him. Benfica look settled and front-loaded, with Vangelis Pavlidis supported by creators like Heorhii Sudakov and runners from wide.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Juventus | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| Champions League points (after 6) | 9 | 6 |
| Champions League position | 17th | 25th |
| Champions League goals (6 apps) | 12 | 6 |
| Champions League shots per game | 18.5 | 12.5 |
| Champions League possession | 48.8% | 45.8% |
| Clean sheets (all comps shown) | 10 (28 games) | 19 (34 games) |
Juventus look like the side that should dictate territory — the shot volume in Europe is big, and the goal return is healthy. Benfica’s numbers point to a team that can live without dominating the ball and still land punches, and their clean-sheet count hints at a group comfortable defending their box and surviving spells.
William Hill
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
BetMGM
Bet £10 Get £40 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
bet365
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Betfred
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
10bet
100% Up To £50 On First Deposit
Show Terms & Conditions
Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Juventus: volume, width, and one big risk
Juventus have clear attacking habits: they like short passing, working in the opposition half, and attacking down the left. They’re also flagged as strong on the break and at set pieces — which tells you their threat isn’t one-dimensional. Expect them to push Benfica back with sustained pressure and plenty of shots, especially if Yildiz and Conceição can receive on the half-turn and run at defenders.
But there’s a red flag that keeps flashing: avoiding individual errors is listed as very weak. That’s not a small detail in a fixture where the opponent is comfortable letting you have the ball and waiting for one mistake to punish.
Benfica: compact control, then a sudden knife
Benfica’s profile screams “keep it tidy, then strike”. Their strengths lean into finishing chances, wing attacks, and through balls — and they’re strong in aerial duels too. With Otamendi anchoring and Aursnes providing balance, they can sit in a stable shape, let Juventus rack up possession, and then break hard into the spaces Juventus leave behind.
The key is the connection between Sudakov and Pavlidis. Sudakov offers a direct link from midfield into the front line, while Pavlidis brings consistent end product — he has 17 goals and 4 assists in Liga Portugal, with a 7.53 rating. If Juventus over-commit, that pairing can turn one turnover into a clear sight of goal.
Where the match swings
- Wide lanes vs wide threat: both sides are strong down the wings. Juventus will want full-backs like Cambiaso high and aggressive; Benfica can punish that with quick outlets into wide areas, then a cutback for Pavlidis.
- Midfield discipline: Juventus have Locatelli and Thuram to control rhythm, but they must resist cheap giveaways. Benfica’s game plan thrives on mistakes.
- Shot quality, not just quantity: Juventus can pile up attempts (their CL shot rate says they do), but Benfica’s ability to defend set pieces and stay compact means Juventus need runners into the box — not just pot-shots.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces: both sides are listed as strong defending set pieces, and Juventus are strong attacking them. That makes first contact and second balls absolutely massive.
- First goal timing: Juventus’ average first goal time is 50’, Benfica’s is 37’. If Benfica land an early punch, the whole rhythm tilts into Mourinho territory.
- Discipline and disruption: Benfica’s overall figures show 75 yellow cards and 4 reds across the set provided, while Juventus are on 36 yellows and 1 red. If the game gets spiky, keeping 11 on the pitch matters.
What could go wrong?
Juventus can dominate the ball and still lose the plot if one loose pass turns into a Benfica break. And if Juventus chase it too emotionally after that Cagliari defeat, they risk feeding the exact type of match Benfica want: fractured, transitional, and decided by a handful of ruthless moments.
Best Bet for Juventus vs Benfica
Will Mourinho’s tactical setup stifle Juventus’ high-volume attack, or can Spalletti find a way through without Vlahovic?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Attack | JUV 18.5 shots/gm; BEN Pavlidis 17 goals | Back BTTS |
| History | BEN won last 3 CL meetings vs JUV | Benfica +1 |
| Defense | JUV 10 clean sheets; BEN 19 clean sheets | Under 2.5 Goals |
| Discipline | BEN 75 yellows/4 reds; JUV 36 yellows/1 red | Over Cards |
Both Teams to Score
This fixture is a collision between high-volume pressure and clinical counter-attacking efficiency. Juventus are the statistical aggressors in the Champions League, averaging 18.5 shots per game. This relentless approach has produced 12 goals in just six matches, proving they have the creative capacity to breach even the most disciplined setups. With Kenan Yildiz acting as the primary spark and Jonathan David replacing the injured Vlahovic, the home side has the tools to sustain pressure in the Benfica half.
However, Juventus’ aggressive stance comes with significant risk. The side is very weak at avoiding individual errors, a flaw that plays directly into the hands of a José Mourinho-led Benfica. The visitors are comfortable with limited possession (45.8%) and focus on high-quality chances rather than quantity. They possess a lethal weapon in Vangelis Pavlidis, who has already amassed 17 goals this season. Pavlidis, supported by the creative vision of Heorhii Sudakov, is perfectly suited to punishing the transitions that occur when Juventus’ full-backs push high.
History further supports goals at both ends. Juventus have struggled significantly in this match-up, losing seven of their nine total encounters against the Portuguese side. Benfica’s ability to find the net early—averaging their first goal at the 37th minute—forces Juventus to chase the game, which opens up the spaces where the match becomes fractured and transitional. Given Juventus’ need for points to climb the league phase and Benfica’s historical dominance, both sides have the motivation and the personnel to ensure the scoreline doesn’t stay blank for either.
What could go wrong?
The primary risk to this bet is a “Mourinho Masterclass” where Benfica focus entirely on defensive solidity. If Benfica manage to sit deep and neutralize Juventus’ wide threats through Otamendi’s leadership, the game could stagnate into a low-possession stalemate. Furthermore, the absence of Vlahovic removes Juventus’ most natural finisher, which might lead to a high volume of shots without the clinical edge required to convert.
Correct Score Lean
Juventus 1-1 Benfica
This result balances Juventus’ territorial dominance with Benfica’s psychological and tactical edge. Juventus produce a massive volume of shots at Allianz Stadium, but the loss of Vlahovic reduces their conversion rate. Benfica are highly organized, boasting 19 clean sheets across 34 games this season, and are comfortable defending their box under pressure. Since Juventus are prone to individual errors and Benfica thrive on the break, a scenario where Juventus dominates the ball but gets caught once on the counter is highly probable. A 1-1 draw reflects a game of many chances for the hosts but ruthless efficiency from the visitors.
Selected Bookmakers Offers
| |
New cust. Deposit £10+ in 7 days & bet on sports. Min odds apply. Reward = 4 x £10 Free Bets (2 x £10 Bet Builders & 2 x £10 Sports bet). Valid 7 days. Free bets not valid on e-sports & non UK/IE horse racing. 18+. T&Cs apply. | |
| |
Open Account Offer - New Customers only. Bet £10 and get £30 in Free Bets when you join bet365. Sign up, deposit between £5 and £10 to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value settle. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs , time limits & exclusions apply. Registration Required. #Ad. 18+ Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
18+. Play Safe. From 00:01 on 18.10.2022. £30 bonus. New customers only. Minimum £10 stake on odds of 1/2 (1.5) or greater on sportsbook (excluding Virtual markets). Further terms apply. #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New customers only. Register, deposit with Debit Card, and place first bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get 3 x £10 in Sports Free Bets & 2 x £10 in Acca Free Bets within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility exclusions & T&Cs Apply. | |
| |
New cust only. Opt-in required. Deposit & place a bet within 7 days and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater to be credited with 3 x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 horse racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 football. Free Bets cannot be used on e-sports and non-UK/IE horse racing. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+. T&Cs apply. Acca Club: Available to new & existing customers. 3 or more selections. Min Odds: 3/10 (1.3) per leg. Max stake: £500. Max Winnings: £200,000 per boost. Profit Boost amounts vary. Horse Racing, Greyhounds & Trotting excluded. Exclusions apply. Full T&C’s apply. 18+ GambleAware.org. | |
 | |
New members only. £10+ bet on sports (ex. Virtuals) 1.5 min odds, settled within 14 days. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days; £20 use on sportsbook, £10 on Bet Builder. Stake not returned. T&Cs.+ deposit exclusions apply #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New bettors. Select bonus at signup or use code SPORT. Wager deposit & bonus 8x. Max qualifying bet = bonus. Valid 60 days. Odds, bet & payment limits apply. T&Cs Apply; 18+ | Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
New customers only, 18+. Min deposit £10. Place a £50 bet on any sport at 2.0+ to qualify for £25 in free bets and 10 Free Spins. Free Bets and Spins valid 7 days. £0.10 Free Spins. T&Cs apply. Please bet responsibly. #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New members only. £10 min deposit & bet on sportsbook (ex. virtuals), placed & settled at 1.5 min odds in 14 days of sign-up. Win part of E/W bets. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days, use on sportsbook only (ex. virtuals), stakes not returned. T&Cs Apply and deposit exclusions apply. Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
18+ New customers only. Opt in, and bet £10 on football markets (odds 2.00+). No cash out. Get 6x£5 football free bets at specified odds for set markets, which expire after 7 days. Offer valid from 12:00 UK Time on 25/08/2023. Card payments only. T&Cs Apply | gambleaware.org | Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
