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Can Marseille turn the Vélodrome into a Champions League launchpad against Liverpool? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Marseille average 11 goals in the UCL and are lethal from set pieces. Liverpool generate 18.3 shots per game but are weak at defending set pieces and stopping chances. With both teams scoring 11 goals each, their attacking strengths and defensive vulnerabilities align for a BTTS result.
Read Rationale ▾
Liverpool’s high shot volume (18.3/game) and Marseille’s vulnerability to through balls favour the visitors. While Marseille’s home scoring record is consistent, Liverpool’s superior possession and clinical transitional play suggest they will find the decisive goal to edge a tight contest at the Vélodrome.
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Marseille vs Liverpool Predictions and Best Bets
Marseille vs Liverpool — BetMGM Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample BetMGM odds based on our match analysis.
Liverpool arrive as 5/6 favourites, with Marseille’s European home form keeping them in the mix as 12/5 outsiders at the Vélodrome.
Implied probabilities suggest a high-scoring 1-2 away win or 1-1 draw are the most probable outcomes in France.
Both sides have found the net 11 times in the UCL stage, heavily supporting a high-probability BTTS Yes outcome.
- Top-eight pressure cooker: Liverpool are 9th on 12 points after six games (W4, L2), while Marseille sit 16th on 9 points (W3, L3) — this is a direct swing fixture.
- Shots tell the story: Liverpool average 18.3 shots per game in the Champions League, Marseille sit at 12.8, but both have scored 11 and Marseille have conceded just 8.
- Home UCL stinginess: Marseille concede 0.67 goals per home Champions League match on average, and Liverpool concede 0.67 goals per away Champions League match on average — fine margins, sharp moments.
Attacking Intensity: Champions League Shots
A comparison of how frequently both sides look to test the opposition goalkeeper in European competition.
Liverpool generate significant attacking pressure, consistently maintaining the highest shot volume in the league stage.
While taking fewer attempts than Liverpool, Marseille have matched their goal tally of 11 in the competition.
Defensive Metrics: UCL Goals Conceded
Both teams have shown identical defensive resilience in specific home and away scenarios this season.
Marseille have restricted opponents effectively at the Vélodrome, allowing less than a goal per game.
Mirroring their opponents, Liverpool maintain the same defensive efficiency when playing on the road.
The Orange Vélodrome is built for nights like this. Marseille are hunting a third straight Champions League win and they’ve got genuine last-16 ambition, but the league table says there’s no room for drifting: 16th on nine points and chasing the pack. Roberto De Zerbi’s side arrive with attacking swagger after a 5-2 win at Angers, and the confidence looks real.
Liverpool turn up with a different itch. Arne Slot’s team have been hard to beat domestically — four draws in the last six — yet the Champions League has been their clean, sharp outlet. They’re 9th on 12 points, still outside the top eight, and kick-off at 20:00 lands right in the middle of a season-defining stretch.
Team News & Lineups
Marseille absences
- N. Maupay (no eligibility) — out until 29.01.2026
- T. Vermot (no eligibility) — out until 29.01.2026
Liverpool absences
- No injuries/suspensions listed.
Marseille probable XI
Rulli; Murillo, Balerdi, Medina, Emerson; O’Riley, Hojbjerg; Weah, Greenwood, Paixao; Aubameyang
Liverpool probable XI
Alisson; Frimpong, Konate, Van Dijk, Robertson; Mac Allister, Gravenberch; Szoboszlai, Wirtz, Gakpo; Ekitike
What it means
- Marseille’s shape leans into creators around a finisher: Greenwood and Paixao feeding Aubameyang, with Hojbjerg setting the tempo.
- Liverpool’s front four looks built for constant rotation: Wirtz between the lines, Gakpo drifting, Szoboszlai arriving late, and Ekitike as the penalty-box reference.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Marseille | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| League-stage points (after 6) | 9 | 12 |
| League-stage record | W3 L3 | W4 L2 |
| Goals scored (UCL) | 11 | 11 |
| Goals conceded (UCL) | 8 | Not listed for UCL total |
| Shots per game (UCL) | 12.8 | 18.3 |
| Possession % (UCL) | 53.8% | 56.7% |
| Pass % (UCL) | 86.0% | 88.2% |
| Aerials won (UCL) | 10.5 | 12.0 |
Liverpool’s Champions League shot volume is massive — 18.3 per game — and that usually means pressure, territory, second balls. Marseille don’t match that volume, but they’ve been efficient: 11 goals from fewer attempts, plus a league-stage defensive line that’s only allowed 8. This has the feel of control vs incision: Liverpool piling on sequences, Marseille looking to land the cleaner punch.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
De Zerbi’s Marseille: possession, long shots, and a fragile back door
Marseille want to play. They’re a possession side with short passes, and they’ll happily step into long-range shooting lanes — it’s a listed strength, and it fits the profile of a team that doesn’t wait for perfect chances. They’ve also got a serious set-piece edge at both ends: defending set pieces is very strong, and shooting from direct free kicks is very strong.
But there’s a red flag that Liverpool will aim at relentlessly: defending against through ball attacks is very weak. If Marseille hold a high line and try to squeeze the pitch, one clipped pass behind can turn the entire stadium’s mood in a second.
Slot’s Liverpool: wing threat, counters, and a volume machine
Liverpool can win this match without monopolising the ball, but they’re not shy about controlling territory either. Their style points to possession football, short passes, and a willingness to take long shots — plus they’re very strong attacking down the wings and strong on counter-attacks. That blend is nasty: it lets Liverpool press, recycle, and still have the out-ball when Marseille overcommit.
The weak spot? It’s not subtle. Defending set pieces is weak, and stopping opponents from creating chances is very weak. That’s exactly the sort of vulnerability Marseille can lean on at the Vélodrome — especially with players who like to shoot and take responsibility in crowded moments.
Where the match swings
Marseille will try to pin Liverpool in and keep the rhythm high, but they must be careful about the space behind their back line. Liverpool’s attacking cast — Wirtz, Gakpo, Ekitike — looks tailor-made to exploit any hesitation between centre-back and full-back. If Marseille can make it messy and turn it into dead balls and long shots, their strengths come alive. If it becomes a clean transition game, Liverpool’s pace and passing angles start to bite.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces vs set-piece defending: Marseille are very strong defending set pieces and dangerous from direct free kicks; Liverpool’s set-piece defending is a listed weakness. That’s a flashpoint.
- The through-ball corridor: Marseille’s vulnerability to through balls is glaring. Watch Wirtz and Szoboszlai for those early, sharp passes into the channels.
- Shot volume and rebounds: Liverpool’s 18.3 shots per game in the Champions League creates chaos — second balls, blocks, scrambles. Marseille need brave box defending.
What could go wrong?
For Marseille, it’s the classic trap: control the ball, look comfortable, then get split by one pass because the line is too high and the spacing is off. For Liverpool, it’s a different kind of danger — soak up Vélodrome pressure, concede cheap set pieces, and suddenly you’re defending a wave of deliveries and long-range strikes in a stadium that feeds on momentum.
Best Bet for Marseille vs Liverpool
Can Marseille turn the Vélodrome into a Champions League launchpad against Liverpool?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Scoring | OM: 11 goals; LIV: 11 goals | Back BTTS |
| Creativity | OM: 12.8 shots/gm; LIV: 18.3 shots/gm | Over 2.5 Goals |
| Set Pieces | OM: Strong; LIV: Weak Defending | Marseille to Score |
| Defense | OM: Concede 0.67 Home; LIV: Concede 0.67 Away | Tight Match |
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
The clash at the Orange Vélodrome pits two highly productive attacks against each other, making the “Both Teams to Score” market the most logical play. Marseille and Liverpool have both been prolific in the Champions League, each netting 11 goals so far in the competition. This consistent output confirms that both sides possess the necessary firepower to breach any defensive line they face.
Marseille’s tactical profile under Roberto De Zerbi is built for goal-scoring, particularly through their high volume of long-range attempts and dead-ball situations. They are very strong at shooting from direct free kicks, which is a significant threat against a Liverpool side that is officially listed as weak in defending set pieces. This mismatch is a primary driver for the home side to find the back of the net.
Liverpool, meanwhile, are a volume-shooting machine. They average 18.3 shots per game in the Champions League, a figure that almost guarantees constant pressure on the Marseille goal. While Marseille have been relatively stingy at home, their glaring vulnerability to through-ball attacks plays right into Liverpool’s strengths. With players like Wirtz and Szoboszlai feeding the channels, Liverpool have the precision to exploit Marseille’s defensive spacing.
Furthermore, Liverpool’s weakness in stopping opponents from creating chances means Marseille will have opportunities regardless of how much possession the visitors hold. Given that both teams have averaged over 1.8 goals per game in European competition this season, the data strongly supports a scenario where both goalkeepers are beaten.
What could go wrong?
The risk lies in a potential tactical stalemate if Marseille prioritizes defensive shape to mitigate Liverpool’s through-ball threat. If De Zerbi adopts a deeper defensive block than usual, the shot volume for both sides could drop, leading to a low-scoring affair that defies the season’s statistical trends.
Correct Score Lean
Marseille 1-2 Liverpool
Liverpool’s massive shot volume (18.3 per game) gives them a statistical edge in turning pressure into clinical finishes. While Marseille will likely capitalize on Liverpool’s set-piece frailties to score at least once, the visitors’ ability to exploit Marseille’s “very weak” through-ball defense is the deciding factor. With Marseille sitting 16th and desperate for points, they may leave gaps late in the game while chasing a win. Liverpool’s superior possession (56.7%) and strength on the counter-attack suggest they will find the late opening to secure a narrow victory in a high-intensity environment.
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