bet365
BetMGM
William Hill
Betfred
BetUK
LiveScoreBet
10Bet
Virgin Bet
Can cup-glory Vitoria ride the wave at Afonso Henriques, or will Porto’s league machine shut the party down? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
To use the Live Streaming service you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Geo location and live streaming rules apply.
▾
Porto are the league leaders with a dominant record of 49 points from 17 games. Their defensive record is elite (4 goals conceded), and they face a Vitoria side that, while in good form, struggles significantly against counter-attacks—a specialty of this Porto team.
▾
Porto average over 2 goals per game and have a league-high clean sheet rate. Vitoria's vulnerability in transition suggests Porto will score, while Porto's defensive structure makes a home goal unlikely.
Readers’ Tip
Vote your pick — quick & anonymous
Terms & Conditions (tap to view)
Vitoria de Guimaraes vs Porto Predictions and Best Bets
Vitoria vs Porto — bet365 Market Snapshot
Informational market snapshot. Pricing shown below based on match metrics.
Porto’s league dominance is reflected in the outcome weighting for this match.
- Elite Defence, Relentless Results: Porto sit 1st with 49 points after 17 league matches, boasting a jaw-dropping 36 scored and just 4 conceded.
- Volume vs Control: Vitoria fire 12.8 shots per game with 49.4% possession, but Porto crank it up to 14.6 shots and 56.3% possession.
- Clean Sheets and Corners Tell a Story: Porto have 18 clean sheets (across the overall matches block) and average 6.32 corners per game, forcing opponents into long defensive shifts.
Defensive Performance: League Goals Conceded
A comparison of goals allowed across the league campaign highlights Porto’s defensive structure.
Porto’s defense has remained incredibly tight, yielding just four goals so far this season.
Vitoria have conceded significantly more than their opponents despite their recent cup success.
Attacking Intent: Shots per Game
The league leaders generate significant volume, leading to 36 goals scored this term.
Vitoria maintain a respectable shot count, often fueled by wide play and crosses.
The confetti’s barely settled in Guimarães — and now the league leaders walk into town. Vitoria de Guimaraes return to Primeira Liga action at Estadio D. Afonso Henriques still buzzing from a Taça da Liga triumph built on drama, nerve, and a late-goal habit that keeps opponents sweating.
Luis Pinto has momentum in his hands: three straight wins, including a 2-1 league success over Nacional, and a cup run that saw them knock out heavyweight opposition. But this fixture is a different kind of test. Porto arrive as the standard-setters, fresh off a hard-fought 1-0 win over Benfica in the Taça de Portugal quarter-final and carrying the swagger of a side that simply refuses to blink.
Kick-off is 20:30 — and the temperature will feel even higher.
Team News & Lineups
Injuries / absences
- Vitoria de Guimaraes: G. da Silva Cunha (muscle injury).
- Porto: No injuries or suspensions listed.
Vitoria de Guimaraes possible starting lineup
- Castillo; Maga, Nobrega, Abascal, Lebedenko; Nogueira, Mitrovic; Arcanjo, Samu, Saviolo; Ndoye
FC Porto possible starting lineup
- D Costa; A Costa, T Silva, Kiwior, Fernandes; Veiga, Varela, Froholdt; Pepê, Samu Aghehowa, W Gomes
What it means
- Vitoria’s front line has a headline act right now: Alioune Ndoye, the late-game difference-maker in the League Cup, gives them belief even when the match looks gone.
- Porto’s spine looks built for control and punishment — Kiwior (rating 7.27) behind, Froholdt (17 apps) in the engine room, and Samu Aghehowa up top with 12 league goals and 3.3 shots per game.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Vitoria de Guimaraes | Porto |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 1st |
| Points | 25 | 49 |
| Goals scored (league) | 18 | 36 |
| Goals conceded (league) | 22 | 4 |
| Shots per game (league) | 12.8 | 14.6 |
| Possession (league) | 49.4% | 56.3% |
| Pass accuracy (league) | 81.7% | 85.3% |
| Corners (avg per game) | 4.65 | 6.32 |
Porto’s numbers scream dominance: more ball, more shots, and a defensive record that chokes matches. Vitoria can match the shot volume broadly, but Porto’s efficiency — especially at the back — changes the risk calculation for every attack.
William Hill
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
BetMGM
Bet £10 Get £40 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
bet365
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Betfred
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
10bet
100% Up To £50 On First Deposit
Show Terms & Conditions
Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Vitoria’s plan: width, left-side intent, and set-piece menace
Vitoria want to play in the opposition half. Their style leans into width, crosses, and attacking down the left, with a willingness to hit long shots and keep the pressure cycling. At home, that can feel like a storm — especially when the crowd is still riding the cup buzz.
They’ve also got a genuine edge on dead balls: attacking set pieces are a strength, and they’re strong from direct free kicks. In tight games, that matters. One free-kick, one second ball, one moment… and suddenly Porto have a problem to solve.
But there’s a red flag that Porto will circle in thick marker: Vitoria are very weak defending counter-attacks. That’s dangerous against a side that are strong on counter attacks and ruthless when space opens up.
Porto’s plan: suffocate, then slice through the middle
Francesco Farioli has Porto playing like a metronome with teeth. Their approach is built on short passes, possession football, and controlling territory — and when the chance appears, they attack through the middle with quality.
The finishing is elite: Porto are very strong at putting chances away, and Samu Aghehowa is the obvious spearhead. He doesn’t need five looks. He needs one clean one — and Porto create those with regularity.
At the back, Porto look set up to deal with what Vitoria like to do. They’re strong defending set pieces and strong in aerial duels, which directly challenges Vitoria’s route to chaos. If Porto win their first contacts and keep the box clean, Vitoria may be forced into low-percentage shooting.
The mismatch zone: Vitoria’s ambition vs Porto’s punishment
If Vitoria push full-backs high and play brave, Porto’s counter threat becomes the match’s sharpest blade. If Vitoria sit off, Porto’s control game can squeeze them into long, tiring defending spells. Either way, Vitoria need precision — not just passion.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces vs set-piece defending: Vitoria can hurt teams with dead balls, but Porto defend them strongly — a proper clash of strengths.
- Transitions after Vitoria attacks: The moment Vitoria lose it in the final third, Porto will try to sprint through the centre channels.
- Late-game drama factor: Vitoria’s League Cup story was written late, with Ndoye delivering decisive moments — Porto can’t switch off.
- Corner count pressure: Porto’s high corner output hints at sustained territory; Vitoria’s ability to survive those sequences could define the flow.
What could go wrong?
For Vitoria, the risk is obvious: commit numbers forward, lose the ball, and get caught with space behind — their counter-attack defending is the soft underbelly. For Porto, the danger is a match that refuses to settle: a hostile stadium, a confident opponent, and a set-piece swing that flips momentum before their control can fully bite.
Best Bet for Vitoria de Guimaraes vs Porto
Can the cup winners halt the march of the league leaders at the Afonso Henriques?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Defense | Porto 4 goals conceded; Vitoria 22 | Porto Clean Sheet / Win |
| Attack | Samu 12 goals; Vitoria 18 team goals | Samu Anytime Scorer |
| Set Plays | Vitoria 4.65 corners; Porto 6.32 | Over Corners |
| Efficiency | Porto 85.3% pass accuracy; Vitoria 81.7% | Porto Match Control |
[bt4y_article_veil]
Porto to Win to Nil
Porto arrive at Estadio D. Afonso Henriques as a clinical league machine. While Vitoria are riding a wave of emotion following their Taça da Liga success, the statistical gulf in defensive stability is impossible to ignore. Porto have conceded a remarkably low 4 goals across 17 league matches this season.
This defensive record is paired with a suffocating possession game. Porto average 56.3% possession and a high pass accuracy of 85.3%, which allows them to dictate the tempo and limit opposition opportunities. Vitoria, while brave at home, often rely on high-volume shooting rather than high-quality chances, averaging 12.8 shots per game with far less efficiency than the leaders.
Furthermore, Porto are specialists at neutralizing the exact threats Vitoria pose. While the hosts are strong at attacking set pieces, Porto are statistically robust in aerial duels and set-piece defending. This removes Vitoria’s primary route to goal, forcing them into speculative long-range efforts that are unlikely to beat a defense that has kept 18 clean sheets across all competitions.
The tactical mismatch is exacerbated by Vitoria’s weakness against counter-attacks. As the home side pushes forward to satisfy the crowd, they will leave space for Porto’s elite finishers. With Samu Aghehowa in prolific form—averaging 3.3 shots per game—Porto have the precision to punish Vitoria while keeping their own goal entirely under lock and key.
What could go wrong? Vitoria are currently playing with high confidence following their cup win and have a habit of scoring late goals through Alioune Ndoye. If the home crowd creates a hostile enough environment to disrupt Porto’s rhythm, a single set-piece lapse or a late “cup-style” surge could ruin the clean sheet.
Correct Score Lean
Porto 2-0
This scoreline reflects Porto’s defensive dominance and their efficient attacking output. Porto average over two goals scored per league game, and given Vitoria’s struggle to defend transitions, Porto are likely to find the net in both halves. Considering Porto have only conceded four times in the league all season, Vitoria will find it incredibly difficult to break through a backline led by the high-rated Kiwior. A 2-0 victory allows Porto to exert control early and see the game out professionally.
Selected Bookmakers Offers
| |
New cust. Deposit £10+ in 7 days & bet on sports. Min odds apply. Reward = 4 x £10 Free Bets (2 x £10 Bet Builders & 2 x £10 Sports bet). Valid 7 days. Free bets not valid on e-sports & non UK/IE horse racing. 18+. T&Cs apply. | |
| |
Open Account Offer - New Customers only. Bet £10 and get £30 in Free Bets when you join bet365. Sign up, deposit between £5 and £10 to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value settle. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs , time limits & exclusions apply. Registration Required. #Ad. 18+ Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
18+. Play Safe. From 00:01 on 18.10.2022. £30 bonus. New customers only. Minimum £10 stake on odds of 1/2 (1.5) or greater on sportsbook (excluding Virtual markets). Further terms apply. #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New customers only. Register, deposit with Debit Card, and place first bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get 3 x £10 in Sports Free Bets & 2 x £10 in Acca Free Bets within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility exclusions & T&Cs Apply. | |
| |
New cust only. Opt-in required. Deposit & place a bet within 7 days and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater to be credited with 3 x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 horse racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 football. Free Bets cannot be used on e-sports and non-UK/IE horse racing. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+. T&Cs apply. Acca Club: Available to new & existing customers. 3 or more selections. Min Odds: 3/10 (1.3) per leg. Max stake: £500. Max Winnings: £200,000 per boost. Profit Boost amounts vary. Horse Racing, Greyhounds & Trotting excluded. Exclusions apply. Full T&C’s apply. 18+ GambleAware.org. | |
 | |
New members only. £10+ bet on sports (ex. Virtuals) 1.5 min odds, settled within 14 days. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days; £20 use on sportsbook, £10 on Bet Builder. Stake not returned. T&Cs.+ deposit exclusions apply #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New bettors. Select bonus at signup or use code SPORT. Wager deposit & bonus 8x. Max qualifying bet = bonus. Valid 60 days. Odds, bet & payment limits apply. T&Cs Apply; 18+ | Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
New customers only, 18+. Min deposit £10. Place a £50 bet on any sport at 2.0+ to qualify for £25 in free bets and 10 Free Spins. Free Bets and Spins valid 7 days. £0.10 Free Spins. T&Cs apply. Please bet responsibly. #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New members only. £10 min deposit & bet on sportsbook (ex. virtuals), placed & settled at 1.5 min odds in 14 days of sign-up. Win part of E/W bets. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days, use on sportsbook only (ex. virtuals), stakes not returned. T&Cs Apply and deposit exclusions apply. Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
18+ New customers only. Opt in, and bet £10 on football markets (odds 2.00+). No cash out. Get 6x£5 football free bets at specified odds for set markets, which expire after 7 days. Offer valid from 12:00 UK Time on 25/08/2023. Card payments only. T&Cs Apply | gambleaware.org | Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
