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Will Dortmund’s attacking wave wash Bremen away — or can Werder turn the game into a grind at Signal Iduna Park? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Metz concedes 2.24 goals per game, the worst in the league, while Strasbourg has won the last six head-to-head meetings.
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Strasbourg's 10 clean sheets and Metz's weak finishing suggest a comfortable shutout win for the home side.
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Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen Predictions and Best Bets
Dortmund vs Bremen — BetMGM Market Snapshot
Informational pricing shown below. Any probabilities are implied from listed odds.
Dortmund are strong home favourites in the 1X2 market, reflecting their 2nd-place standing and nine-game unbeaten league run.
Pricing points toward a high-scoring encounter with both sides contributing, following BVB’s recent 3-3 draw and Bremen’s shot volume.
- Late-Drama Specialists: Dortmund needed a 96th-minute Carney Chukwuemeka equaliser just to draw 3-3 at Frankfurt — they keep swinging, even when the game looks gone.
- Relentless Scoring Rhythm: Dortmund have scored at least two goals in seven of their last nine matches in all competitions, with 29 goals in 16 Bundesliga games keeping them in the top-two mix.
- Table Split Tells the Story: Dortmund sit 2nd with 33 points, four clear of fifth, while Werder are 12th with 17 and have conceded 28 in 15 — pressure one way, survival instincts the other.
Attacking Consistency: Recent Scoring Form
A look at how often both sides have hit the net during their recent league matches.
The hosts have maintained a consistent rhythm, scoring 29 goals in 16 Bundesliga fixtures.
Bremen match Dortmund’s shot volume, indicating they are not merely passengers in possession.
Defensive Stability: Season Metrics
Comparison of defensive efficiency and clean sheet counts so far this campaign.
Dortmund have conceded only 15 goals in the league, though recent games show lapses when leading.
Bremen’s survival instincts are tested by a defence conceding nearly two goals per game.
Signal Iduna Park sets the stage for a fixture with a clear edge in the standings and plenty of edge in the mood. Borussia Dortmund are chasing the Champions League places from second, sitting on 33 points, and they’ve built a stubborn momentum: nine unbeaten in the league, mixing five wins with four draws.
But it hasn’t been serene. Saturday’s 3-3 at Frankfurt saw Dortmund lead twice and still need a 96th-minute rescue from Carney Chukwuemeka. That’s thrilling… and slightly chaotic. Werder Bremen arrive 12th on 17 points, with a team profile that suggests they’ll happily live without the ball and try to punch holes with selective aggression. Kick-off is 19:30.
Team News & Lineups
Team News
Borussia Dortmund absences
- Aaron Anselmino (hamstring injury)
- Emre Can (adductor pain)
Werder Bremen absences
- No injuries or suspensions listed.
Probable Lineups
Borussia Dortmund:
Kobel; Anton, Can, Schlotterbeck; Ryerson, Sabitzer, Nmecha, Svensson; Adeyemi, Brandt; Guirassy
Werder Bremen:
Backhaus; Sugawara, Pieper, Stark, Schmidt; Stage, Lynen; Puertas, Schmid, Njinmah; Milosevic
What it means
Dortmund’s likely XI is built for control: a back three, wing-backs, and two creators behind Serhou Guirassy. The complication is obvious — Emre Can is listed as both absent and in the probable lineup, so that defensive spine could change late and affect Dortmund’s balance in transition.
Werder look set to pack the middle with Jens Stage and Senne Lynen, then spring forward through Romano Schmid and Justin Njinmah. It’s a shape designed to suffer, then strike.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric (Bundesliga) | Borussia Dortmund | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 12th |
| Points | 33 (16 games) | 17 (15 games) |
| Goals scored | 29 | 18 |
| Goals conceded | 15 | 28 |
| Possession | 53.3% | 47.9% |
| Pass accuracy | 84.7% | 81.8% |
| Shots per game | 12.1 | 12.1 |
| Clean sheets (overall) | 10 (25 played) | 4 (16 played) |
Dortmund carry the sharper output and the tighter defensive record in the league. The shots-per-game being level is the curveball — it hints Bremen won’t just be passengers, and that Dortmund may need to create higher-quality chances rather than simply more of them.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Dortmund: possession with a sting — but watch the game management
Niko Kovač’s Dortmund want to control the game in the opposition’s half, play short passes, and attack through the middle. That structure is designed to keep opponents penned in and force repeat waves of pressure.
The front line gives it bite. Julian Brandt (4 league goals, 2 assists) links play, Karim Adeyemi threatens the space, and Guirassy provides the focal point with 2.5 shots per game and 5 league goals. Dortmund also finish chances well — and when they score two, they tend to keep scoring: two or more goals in seven of their last nine across all competitions.
But there’s a crack that Bremen will stare at for 90 minutes: Dortmund are very weak at protecting the lead. That’s not theory — Frankfurt is the freshest proof. When Dortmund go ahead, the next five minutes matter. They can’t lose their spacing, and they can’t let the game become a track meet.
Werder: deep, aggressive, and hunting long shots
Werder’s style is clear: playing in their own half, aggressive, and looking to take long shots. They’re also strong at protecting the lead — which tells you what they want the match to become: one big defensive shift, then a moment.
The danger men fit that plan. Jens Stage has 5 league goals from midfield, while Romano Schmid brings creativity with 4 assists. If Dortmund over-commit bodies forward, Bremen will try to release runners and force Dortmund into recovery tackles.
The flip side is risk. Bremen are very weak at defending against skillful players and very weak at avoiding fouls in dangerous areas. If they defend desperately around the box, they invite the exact kind of set-piece pressure Dortmund can handle — Dortmund are strong defending set pieces, and Bremen are shaky defending long shots themselves.
Where it swings
If Dortmund keep the ball moving and prevent cheap counters, Bremen’s “hang on and hit” plan starts to fade. If Dortmund get sloppy protecting a lead — or chase too many bodies into the final third — Bremen have the tools to land a punch.
Key Moments to Watch
- The first 10 minutes after any Dortmund goal: Dortmund’s lead protection has been fragile, and Bremen will try to pounce on that wobble.
- Fouls around the box: Bremen’s discipline can be messy, and Dortmund have enough technicians to turn free kicks into pressure and panic.
- Long-shot exchanges: Bremen like long shots and Dortmund have been weak defending long shots at times — a danger if they allow second balls to sit up.
- Midfield duel: Stage arriving late versus Sabitzer/Nmecha controlling the tempo could decide whether Bremen get any sustained territory.
What could go wrong?
Dortmund can dominate the ball and still make the game feel unsafe. If they lose compactness while chasing a second or third, Bremen’s aggressive transitions and willingness to shoot early can turn one Dortmund mistake into a nervy finish. And if the night becomes about managing a lead, Dortmund’s biggest weakness is suddenly front and centre.
Best Bet for Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen
Can Dortmund find defensive stability, or will Werder Bremen’s long-range threats spark a Signal Iduna Park upset?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Scoring Power | BVB 29 goals in 16; SVW 28 conceded | BVB Over 1.5 Goals |
| Defensive Form | BVB 10 clean sheets; SVW 4 clean sheets | Home Win |
| Match History | BVB 2+ goals in 7 of last 9 games | Over 2.5 Goals |
| Resistance | BVB 15 conceded; SVW 18 scored | Both Teams to Score |
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Dortmund to Win & Both Teams to Score
Borussia Dortmund enter this fixture as heavy favorites sitting 2nd in the table, but their path to victory is rarely a clean sheet. While they have built an impressive nine-game unbeaten run in the league, their defensive focus often wavers once they take control. This was most recently evidenced in their 3-3 draw with Frankfurt, where they surrendered leads twice and required a 96th-minute equalizer to salvage a point.
Werder Bremen possess the exact profile to exploit these lapses. They are 12th in the standings but match Dortmund for shots per game at 12.1. This parity in shot volume means Werder are not merely passive spectators; they actively hunt opportunities, specifically through long-range efforts and aggressive transitions. With Jens Stage contributing five goals from midfield, Bremen have the personnel to punish a Dortmund side that is statistically weak at protecting leads and defending long shots.
However, Dortmund’s attacking output is too relentless for Bremen’s leaky defense to contain. Bremen have conceded 28 goals in 15 games, and they are particularly vulnerable against skillful players and in dead-ball situations. Dortmund have scored at least twice in seven of their last nine outings, and with Serhou Guirassy leading the line, they have the clinical edge to outscore the visitors.
The tactical setup favors a high-scoring home win. Dortmund will dominate possession and pin Bremen back, but Bremen’s willingness to shoot and Dortmund’s habit of switching off defensively ensures the visitors find the net. Expect a match where Dortmund’s superior quality carries them to three points, even if they fail to keep the back door shut.
What could go wrong? Dortmund’s tendency to become “chaotic” when leading is the primary risk. If Bremen score first and retreat into their deep defensive block—a setup they are statistically strong at maintaining—Dortmund may struggle to break them down. Additionally, if Dortmund improve their lead management following the Frankfurt wake-up call, they could secure a win to nil, ruining the “Both Teams to Score” portion of the bet.
Correct Score Lean
Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Werder Bremen
This scoreline aligns with Dortmund’s scoring rhythm of 2+ goals in seven of their last nine matches and Bremen’s defensive average of nearly two goals conceded per game. Dortmund’s 33-point tally reflects a side that finds ways to win, while Bremen’s 12.1 shots per game suggest they will find the breakthrough against a Dortmund defense that recently leaked three goals to Frankfurt. Dortmund’s quality at home should see them pull away in the second half, but their documented struggle to protect leads makes a clean sheet unlikely.
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