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Paris derby again — can Paris FC disrupt PSG’s Coupe de France rhythm at Parc des Princes? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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PSG have won 13 straight cup ties and score freely at home, but their defensive metrics show they are very weak at stopping chances. Paris FC scored in the 2-1 meeting earlier this month and see BTTS in 65% of their games.
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PSG average over 2 goals per match while Paris FC struggle against through-ball attacks. The visitors' aerial strength suggests they can nick a goal, but PSG’s 17.8 shots per game should result in multiple scores.
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Paris Saint-Germain vs Paris FC Predictions and Best Bets
PSG vs Paris FC — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample William Hill odds based on our match analysis.
PSG enter as overwhelming favourites given their 13-match cup winning streak and home advantage at the Parc des Princes.
A high-scoring PSG win is projected, with the 2-1 and 3-0 margins reflecting their offensive shot volume.
- Cup Momentum Machine: PSG are on a six-match unbeaten run and have won 13 straight Coupe de France ties, with their last home defeat in this tournament coming on penalties in the 2022 round of 16.
- Relentless Shot Volume: Across competitions PSG average 17.3 shots per game and have scored 74 goals in 31 matches, while Paris FC average 12.1 shots in Ligue 1 — the pressure levels won’t match.
- A Familiar Edge: These sides already met earlier this month in Ligue 1 and PSG won 2-1, setting up a derby rematch where small moments can swing a knockout tie.
Offensive Volume: Average Shots per Match
A comparison of the attacking intent and pressure created by both clubs in their respective league campaigns.
The hosts sustain heavy pressure, leading to an average of nearly 18 shots per league outing.
Paris FC maintain a respectable output of 12.1 shots, showing they can threaten despite lower possession.
Tactical Edge: Aerial Duels Won
Aerial statistics highlight a specific area where the visitors hold a numerical advantage over the reigning champions.
A key metric for the visitors, particularly effective for set-piece situations and direct play.
A lower frequency in winning headers, which remains a noted area of vulnerability for the champions.
Same city, same stage, totally different pressures. Paris Saint-Germain and Paris FC meet for the second time this year with a spot in the Coupe de France last 16 on the line at the Parc des Princes. PSG are defending their crown, and they’ve been moving like a side that expects to dominate this competition — 13 straight wins in the cup and a recent 4-0 dismissal of Fontenay to get them started.
Paris FC arrive with momentum of their own after a 3-0 win over Raon-l’Etape, but this is a different test entirely. PSG have won four straight competitive home games since early November, scoring multiple goals in every one of them. In a derby, that kind of rhythm matters.
Team News & Lineups
Paris Saint-Germain absences
- No injuries/suspensions listed.
Paris FC absences
- No injuries/suspensions listed.
Paris Saint-Germain probable starting XI
Chevalier; Zaïre-Emery, Marquinhos, Beraldo, Mendes; Mayulu, Vitinha, Ruiz; Doué, Ramos, Barcola
Paris FC probable starting XI
Trapp; Sangui, Mbow, Kolodziejczak, Otavio, Ollila; Gory, M. Lopez, Marchetti, Ikone; Geubbels
What it means
PSG’s likely front three of Désiré Doué, Gonçalo Ramos and Bradley Barcola screams movement and finishing, with Vitinha (6 Ligue 1 assists) set to pull strings. Paris FC look set to pack the pitch with bodies and try to play through Maxime Lopez and Vincent Marchetti, but that back line will be asked to defend huge spaces if PSG pin them deep.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Paris Saint-Germain | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|
| League apps | 17 | 17 |
| League goals scored | 37 | 22 |
| Shots per game (league) | 17.8 | 12.1 |
| Possession (league) | 69.9% | 53.6% |
| Pass accuracy (league) | 91.6% | 86.5% |
| Aerials won (league) | 7.4 | 11.5 |
| League rating | 6.83 | 6.43 |
This points to a familiar script: PSG want the ball, want the territory, and want repeated entries into the box. Paris FC have enough of the ball in Ligue 1 to play, but they’ll need to survive without it for longer spells here — and make their chances count when they do get up the pitch. One key wrinkle: Paris FC win more aerials, which can matter when the game gets scrappy or set-piece heavy.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
PSG: possession, incision, and the right-side surge
Luis Enrique’s PSG play possession football with short passes, controlling games in the opposition half. They create chances through through balls, individual skill, and they’re very strong at working long-shot openings — which is bad news for a defence that sinks too deep and never steps out.
They also like attacking down the right. That points the spotlight straight at Warren Zaïre-Emery and PSG’s right-sided rotations, with Vitinha keeping the ball moving at high speed (94.1% pass completion in Ligue 1). If Paris FC sit off, PSG will pepper the edge of the box. If they press, PSG will try to slip runners in behind.
One big warning sign for PSG, though: they can be weak at protecting the lead, very weak at stopping opponents from creating chances, and very weak in aerial duels. That’s the crack Paris FC will stare at all night.
Paris FC: wide breaks, counters, and chaos management
Paris FC are strong attacking down the wings and on the counter, and they’re very strong at coming back from losing positions. That tells you the mindset: don’t panic if PSG score, keep the shape, and stay ready to break at speed.
But there’s a trade-off. Paris FC are very weak at avoiding individual errors and very weak defending through balls and set pieces. Against a side that’s strong at through balls and attacking set pieces, those weaknesses aren’t small — they’re flashing lights. Ilan Kebbal (6 goals, 4 assists, 7.24 rating) is the key outlet and the obvious “make something happen” player, while Willem Geubbels offers a direct threat up top.
Where it swings: midfield control vs transition moments
If PSG’s midfield three settle into their passing rhythm, Paris FC could spend long spells chasing shadows. But every time PSG lose the ball, there’s an opportunity: Paris FC’s counters and wing play against a team that can leave gaps and doesn’t always lock games down cleanly. That’s the derby tension — dominance versus disruption.
Key Moments to Watch
- Early tempo: PSG have been controlling cup ties and scoring freely at home. If they start fast, Paris FC’s defensive concentration gets a brutal test.
- Through balls behind the line: PSG are strong at carving teams open with runners. Paris FC are very weak defending through ball attacks — that’s a direct clash.
- Set pieces at both ends: PSG are strong attacking set pieces, while Paris FC are very weak defending them. Flip it around and PSG’s aerial-duel weakness gives Paris FC a route to threaten.
- Derby discipline: Paris FC are weak at avoiding fouls in dangerous areas. Give PSG too many free kicks in shooting range and the pitch tilts quickly.
What could go wrong?
If PSG dominate without killing the tie, the door stays open. Their weakness protecting leads can turn a comfortable night into a tense one, especially if Paris FC land one big counter or nick a set-piece moment. In a knockout derby, one wobble is all it takes to drag the favourites into a fight.
Best Bet for Paris Saint-Germain vs Paris FC
Can the Underdogs Exploit PSG’s Defensive Flaws in This Paris Derby Rematch?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Scoring | PSG score 2.18/gm; PFC average 1.29 | Back Over 2.5 Goals |
| BTTS Trend | 65% of PFC & 41% of PSG games see both score | Back BTTS – Yes |
| H2H Form | PSG won 2-1 earlier this month | PSG Win & BTTS |
| Cup Streak | PSG: 13 straight Coupe de France wins | Home Win |
| Efficiency | PSG: 17.8 shots/gm; PFC: 12.1 shots/gm | PSG Over 1.5 Team Goals |
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Paris Saint-Germain to Win & Both Teams to Score
This matchup represents a clash of a dominant powerhouse and a resilient newcomer that knows how to find the back of the net. Paris Saint-Germain are the undisputed masters of the Coupe de France, carrying a massive 13-match winning streak in the competition. Their offensive engine is operating at peak performance, averaging nearly 18 shots per game and scoring 74 goals across all competitions this season. At the Parc des Princes, they have secured four straight competitive victories, scoring multiple goals in every single one.
However, the “Both Teams to Score” element is where the true value lies. Despite their dominance, PSG have displayed consistent defensive vulnerabilities. They are currently categorized as very weak at protecting leads and stopping opponents from creating chances. Furthermore, they are very weak in aerial duels, a specific area where Paris FC actually holds a statistical advantage, winning 11.5 aerials per game compared to PSG’s 7.4.
Paris FC have proven they are not intimidated by their neighbors. In their meeting earlier this month, they pushed PSG to the limit in a 2-1 result. The visitors have a high “Both Teams to Score” rate of 65% in their matches and possess a strong ability to strike on the counter-attack and from wide areas. With Ilan Kebbal providing the creative spark, Paris FC are well-equipped to exploit a PSG backline that often leaves gaps while playing a high-possession game.
PSG’s tactical style involves controlling the game in the opposition half and utilizing through balls—a major weakness for Paris FC. While the hosts’ individual skill and relentless pressure will likely secure the win, their tendency to concede remains a factor. Expect a high-tempo derby where PSG’s superior finishing overcomes a spirited Paris FC side that manages to get on the scoresheet.
What could go wrong?
The primary risk is a defensive masterclass from the underdogs that keeps the scoreline low. If Paris FC focus entirely on a low block to frustrate the hosts, they may sacrifice their own attacking threat, leading to a “Win to Nil” scenario for PSG. Additionally, if PSG score two early goals and shift into a low-intensity possession mode, the game could stagnate before Paris FC can find a response.
Correct Score Lean
Paris Saint-Germain 3-1 Paris FC
A 3-1 scoreline aligns with the statistical trends and tactical profiles of both clubs. PSG average over two goals per game and are particularly strong at home, while Paris FC have shown the clinical edge to score in 65% of their matches. Given that PSG are very strong at creating chances through individual skill and through balls—and Paris FC are very weak at defending those specific threats—a multi-goal cushion for the hosts is the most logical outcome. Paris FC’s strength in coming back from losing positions ensures they will keep fighting for a goal even if they fall behind early.
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