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Can Telstar make the BUKO Stadion feel tiny for Ajax at 13:30? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Arsenal have won five straight away games, scoring 3+ in most. Forest have seen Over 2.5 goals in three consecutive games and concede heavily.
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Arsenal are averaging high scores on the road, and Forest’s defensive weaknesses against through-balls and long shots align with Arsenal’s shot volume.
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Telstar vs Ajax Predictions and Best Bets
Telstar vs Ajax — William Hill Market Snapshot
Pricing shown below for the Eredivisie restart at BUKO Stadion based on listed odds.
Ajax carry heavy momentum into the restart, while Telstar looks to defensive structure to secure points at home.
Trends suggest a high-event game, with both teams finding the net in recent respective home/away streaks.
- A fixture that’s been one-way traffic: Telstar have only two wins and five draws in their entire history against Ajax, and they’ve lost the last seven while conceding 26 and scoring just five.
- Ball control vs survival mode: Telstar average 43.5% possession with 77.7% pass accuracy, while Ajax post 57.1% possession and 86.3% pass accuracy — a gulf that usually decides territory.
- Goals at both ends keeps showing up: Both teams have scored in Telstar’s last eight home Eredivisie games and Ajax’s last nine away — and Ajax have also conceded in 11 straight away league matches.
Match Control: Possession Metrics
The gulf in ball retention highlights the likely territorial pattern of the game.
With a 77.7% pass accuracy, Telstar often relies on direct play rather than sustained build-up.
A high 86.3% pass accuracy allows Ajax to tilt the pitch and pin opponents in their own half.
Attacking Volume: Shots per Match
Both sides maintain high shot frequencies, suggesting an active game for both goalkeepers.
Despite their league position, Telstar is active in the final third, specifically through wide crosses.
Ajax’s shot volume is supported by clinical finishers like Godts (7 goals) and Dolberg.
Eredivisie football returns after the winter break and it comes back with a proper contrast in objectives. SC Telstar host AFC Ajax Amsterdam at the BUKO Stadion at 13:30, with Telstar stuck in 15th and scrapping for survival, while Ajax restart in third and chasing a strong league finish with European qualification in mind.
Telstar return with a bit of edge in their stride: a 1–0 away win over NAC Breda last time out, plus a 4–1 cup victory over Hoek and draws that showed they can stay alive in games. Ajax, though, were rolling before the break — results, goals, and control — and they’ll expect to turn this into an exercise in territory and pressure.
Team News & Lineups
Team News
- No named injuries or suspensions are listed for either side.
Telstar (possible XI)
Koeman; Offerhaus, Nwankwo, Bakker; Hardeveld, Owusu, Rossen, Noslin, Kamp, Brouwer; Zonneveld
Ajax (possible XI)
Jaros; Gaaei, Itakura, Baas, Rosa; Steur, Regeer, Klaassen; Gloukh, Godts, Dolberg
Implications
- Telstar’s selection fits their identity: width, crosses, and a willingness to go direct. With Jeff Hardeveld (3 goals, 3 assists) involved, their left-sided thrust has real bite — but it can also leave space behind them.
- Ajax have creators and finishers in the same front line. Mika Godts (7 goals, 6 assists) and Oscar Gloukh (4 goals, 5 assists) bring the incision that punishes even brief defensive lapses.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric (Eredivisie) | Telstar | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 3rd |
| Points (17 matches) | 15 | 30 |
| Record | 3W-6D-8L | 8W-6D-3L |
| Goals scored | 20 | 32 |
| Goals conceded | 27 | 22 |
| Shots per game | 13.2 | 14.8 |
| Possession | 43.5% | 57.1% |
| Pass accuracy | 77.7% | 86.3% |
This points to a familiar shape: Ajax with the ball and the territory, Telstar forced into long spells without it. But Telstar’s 13.2 shots per game is a serious volume for a side in 15th — they’ll back themselves to land punches if Ajax switch off in transition or on second balls.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Ajax want the pitch tilted — and they’ve got the tools
Ajax’s style is clear: short passes, possession football, and a heavy preference to attack through the middle. That lines up perfectly with their output — 57.1% possession and 86.3% pass accuracy — which usually means opponents spend long stretches defending their box, not building attacks.
The biggest danger for Telstar is how Ajax create. They’re listed as very strong at creating chances with through balls and strong at winning it back. That’s the nastiest combo against a side described as “playing in their own half” and weak at defending through-ball attacks. One loose touch, one poor pass out, and Ajax are straight at goal.
Telstar’s answer: go wide, go long, and make it frantic
Telstar aren’t built to win a passing contest. Their weaknesses include keeping possession and finishing chances, but their strengths include creating scoring chances — and their style leans into it: width, long balls, and crosses often.
That approach is about forcing the match into phases: win territory, deliver early, hunt second balls. The names back it up. Danny Bakker leads the side in aerials won at 2.9, while Telstar’s broader numbers show 12.1 aerials won per game in the league. If Telstar can turn this into a duel-heavy afternoon — knockdowns, scraps, and broken play — they give themselves a route to the net.
The mismatch that decides it: Telstar’s vulnerable wide defending
Telstar are flagged as very weak defending attacks down the wings, and that’s a red flag in a match where they’ll spend long stretches defending. Even if Ajax prefer the middle, sustained possession drags defenders out, opens channels, and forces full-backs and wide centre-backs into repeated one-v-ones. That’s when the cracks show — and Ajax have the movement to exploit them.
Key Moments to Watch
- Early territorial pressure: If Ajax establish their passing rhythm, Telstar’s back line could end up defending wave after wave. The first 15 minutes matter.
- Second balls after long passes: Telstar need Brouwer, Noslin, and Owusu snapping onto loose touches to stop Ajax simply recycling pressure.
- Discipline in a derby-feel fixture: Telstar average 1.53 yellow cards per match and Ajax 1.96. One rash challenge can hand momentum away.
- Both teams scoring trend: Telstar’s last eight home league matches and Ajax’s last nine away have both seen goals at both ends — concentration has to stay sharp.
What could go wrong?
For Telstar, it’s the same story that drags teams into trouble: invite pressure, lose the ball trying to play out, then get split by a through ball — exactly where they’ve struggled. For Ajax, away control hasn’t always meant calm. They’ve conceded in 11 straight away Eredivisie matches, and if they get casual defending crosses and second phases, this can turn into a messy, momentum-swinging scrap.
Best Bet for SC Telstar vs Ajax
Can Telstar’s chaotic home form disrupt the Ajax machine?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Goal Trends | Telstar 8/8 BTTS (H); Ajax 9/9 BTTS (A) | BTTS – Yes |
| History | Ajax 7 straight wins; 26-5 aggregate score | Ajax Win |
| Discipline | Telstar 1.53 YC/gm; Ajax 1.96 YC/gm | Over 3.5 Cards |
| Creativity | Telstar 13.2 shots; Ajax 14.8 shots | Over 2.5 Goals |
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Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals
The numbers for this fixture point to a high-scoring encounter where neither defense is likely to keep a clean sheet. Telstar enters this match with a remarkable streak of consistency at the BUKO Stadion, seeing both teams score in their last eight consecutive home league matches. While they sit 15th in the table, their offensive volume remains high, averaging 13.2 shots per game, which is significant for a side fighting relegation.
Ajax, despite their superior league position and technical quality, have proven to be defensively fragile on their travels. They have conceded in 11 straight away league matches, and both teams have found the net in each of their last nine away fixtures. This defensive lapse is often a byproduct of their high-possession style, which leaves them vulnerable to transitions—an area where Telstar’s direct, wide-focused approach can cause chaos.
Telstar’s tactical identity revolves around crosses and aerial duels, led by Danny Bakker’s 2.9 aerials won per game. This direct style contrasts sharply with Ajax’s 57.1% possession and 86.3% pass accuracy. While Ajax will control the territory, Telstar’s willingness to go long and fight for second balls creates the exact kind of frantic environment that leads to goals at both ends.
Historical data further supports a high-scoring outcome, with Ajax scoring 26 goals in their last seven meetings against Telstar. With clinical finishers like Mika Godts and Kasper Dolberg facing a Telstar defense that is “very weak” at defending wing attacks, the visitors will score. However, given Ajax’s inability to shut the door away from home, the most secure value lies in the combination of both teams finding the net and the total goal count exceeding two.
What could go wrong? The primary risk is a lack of clinical finishing from Telstar. While they generate high shot volumes, their finishing is noted as a statistical weakness. If Ajax establishes early dominance and suppresses Telstar’s ability to cross from wide areas, the home side could be kept at bay, potentially leaving the “Both Teams to Score” side of the bet unfulfilled.
Correct Score Lean
SC Telstar 1-3 Ajax
This scoreline accounts for the statistical gulf in quality while respecting the consistent scoring trends of both teams. Ajax averages 57.1% possession and has the creative tools, specifically through Oscar Gloukh and Mika Godts, to exploit Telstar’s weakness in defending through balls and wing play. However, Telstar’s 100% BTTS record in their last eight home games suggests they will find a breakthrough, likely through a set piece or a wide delivery. Ajax’s historical dominance—conceding only five in seven games while scoring 26—points toward a multi-goal margin for the visitors.
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