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Can Nantes’ counter-punching and offside trap hold up against Nice’s wing play and through-ball threat at La Beaujoire? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Palace have seen four consecutive league games end with Under 2.5 goals. Sunderland have drawn five of their last six matches, showing a trend toward low-scoring, tight results.
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The last head-to-head ended 0-0. Sunderland are draw specialists lately, and Palace lack a clinical edge, especially with Mateta being a major injury doubt for this fixture.
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Nantes vs Nice Predictions and Best Bets
Nantes vs Nice — BetMGM Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample BetMGM odds based on our match analysis.
Nice arrive as the market favourites given their higher shot volume and superior ball retention, though Nantes’ counter remains a live threat.
Analysis suggest a high chance of both teams scoring, with a narrow Nice victory being one of the most statistically likely outcomes.
- Nantes have 16 Ligue 1 goals in 17 matches and are labelled weak at finishing chances, which means they need their counter-attacks to end with ruthless final actions.
- Nice have 889 dangerous attacks and 125 corners across the listed all-leagues section, volume that forces constant defending, second balls and set-piece pressure.
- Across the all-leagues played-games snapshot, Nantes have 3 clean sheets in 18 matches while Nice have 2 in 26, so neither side lives in shutout territory.
Defensive Stability: Goals Conceded per Match
Neither side has been defensively airtight this season, with both conceding at a rate that suggests opportunities for the opposition.
With 31 goals conceded in 18 matches, Nantes have struggled to secure the perimeter effectively.
Nice have conceded 48 times in 26 fixtures, illustrating a tendency to engage in high-scoring exchanges.
Attacking Volume: Dangerous Attacks Comparison
The volume of dangerous attacks provides a clear look at which side is consistently putting the opposition under pressure in the final third.
Nice’s high volume of attacks leads to 11.6 shots per game, testing opposition resolve frequently.
Nantes record fewer attacks but rely on a strong counter-attacking efficiency to impact the scoreboard.
Anthony Lopes walks out at Stade de la Beaujoire on Sunday knowing exactly what’s at stake: Nantes, Nice, and a straight shot at the Coupe de France last 16. It’s the first meeting between the sides this year, and it comes with a neat bit of symmetry — a rematch from the 2022 final, now squeezed into a knockout tie where nobody gets to talk their way out of trouble.
Nantes arrive having already survived a proper cup scrap. Last month they edged past Concarneau 5-3, the kind of scoreline that leaves your defenders wanting a lie-down and your forwards wanting the ball back immediately. Nice, meanwhile, moved through with a 2-1 win over Saint-Etienne, a tidier route but still one that demanded control of the moments that matter.
The league backdrop hasn’t been kind to either side in recent weeks. Nantes’ run includes a 1-1 draw with Lorient, defeats to Lyon, Lens and Angers, then a 2-0 win away at Olympique Marseille on January 4. Nice have stumbled through defeats to Lorient, Angers, Sporting Braga and Lens before a 1-1 draw with Strasbourg on January 3. So yes, the cup offers relief — but it also offers pressure. A place in the last 16 is brilliant. Going out is brutal.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Nantes’ possible starting XI has Lopes in goal, with Uros Radakovic, Tylel Tati and Nicolas Cozza forming a three at the back. The wing-backs look like Kelvin Amian and Deiver Machado, with Francis Coquelin and Junior Mwanga in the centre. Dehmaine Tabibou and Matthis Abline sit behind Youssef El-Arabi.
That selection is an interesting mash-up of Nantes’ habits and their problems. Nantes are very strong on the counter-attack and strong at protecting a lead, which instantly makes you think they’ll be comfortable without the ball and ready to go direct. Their style leans on long balls, long shots, an offside trap, and a non-aggressive approach while playing in their own half. In that context, the wing-backs matter: Amian and Machado have to carry the side up the pitch in big strides, because the front three is built to receive early and turn moments into shots.
There is also a clear risk in the shape. Nantes are very weak defending counter-attacks and very weak defending against attacks down the wings. If your wing-backs are high and you lose the ball, you’re exposing the exact areas you already struggle to cover. That means Coquelin and Mwanga have a serious job screening transitions, stopping Nice’s runners and forcing attacks away from the danger lanes.
The one specific injury note in the facts is for Nantes: B. Guirassy is listed out with a hamstring injury.
Nice’s possible starting XI has Maxime Dupé in goal, with Jonathan Clauss, Juma Bah, Kojo Peprah Oppong and Melvin Bard in defence. The midfield line is Diallo, Tanguy Ndombélé and Morgan Sanson, with Mohamed-Ali Cho and Elye Wahi listed in attack.
Nice’s profile is a fascinating cocktail. They are very strong at creating chances using through balls and strong at attacking down the wings, but they are also very weak defending counter-attacks and very weak defending against long shots, with weak finishing on top of that. They want to play forward and quickly, but they also give you reasons to believe you’ll get opportunities going the other way.
How the Match Could Be Played
If you want the tactical headline in plain words: this could get chaotic, because both teams are set up to hurt the exact things the other side struggles with.
Start with Nantes. They don’t keep the ball well, and they don’t finish chances well. That’s a grim combination if you’re trying to dominate. But Nantes don’t need dominance to be dangerous, because their counter-attacks are very strong. With Abline running the channels and El-Arabi offering a penalty-box presence, Nantes can build a match plan around defending first, then breaking with width through Amian and Machado.
The offside trap adds another layer. Nantes play it, and they play in their own half. That means they want Nice to step into the space in front of them, then step up together and catch a runner just as the ball goes in behind. Do it well and you frustrate opponents into long shots and hopeful crosses. Do it badly and you leave one pass to split you.
Nice, meanwhile, have one obvious route to make that trap uncomfortable: through balls. They are very strong at creating chances that way. That means Cho’s movement and Wahi’s running become central. If Nice can pull one centre-back out of line, or drag a wing-back into a decision, that passing lane opens up quickly. Clauss and Bard also matter because Nice are strong down the wings; if they pin Nantes’ wing-backs deep, Nantes lose their best route to counter quickly.
The middle of the pitch will decide which team gets their preferred game. Nantes’ central duo of Coquelin and Mwanga are there to hold, tackle, and stop the first pass out. Nice’s midfield trio — Diallo, Ndombélé, Sanson — is built to circulate and then punch forward at the right moment. If Nice can keep play neat and force Nantes into chasing, Nantes’ weakness at avoiding individual errors becomes a real worry. You don’t get away with sloppy clearances and cheap turnovers forever, not against a side that wants to slip runners through.
But Nice have their own structural pain. They are very weak defending counter-attacks and weak at protecting the lead, and Nantes are very strong on the counter and strong at protecting a lead. So if Nantes score first, you can imagine the match slipping into the exact rhythm Nantes like: compact, reactive, and nasty to play against. If Nice score first, it still doesn’t automatically become comfortable, because Nice are weak at protecting the lead and Nantes are good at turning one defensive moment into a fast break.
Another theme that could define the tie is set pieces and second balls. Both teams are weak defending set pieces. In a cup match, where nerves tighten and touches get heavy, dead balls become a shortcut. Nantes are also weak defending long shots, while Nice are built to take long shots. That’s a direct line from Nice’s style to Nantes’ weakness: if Nice can get the ball cleared to the edge of the area and keep recycling, they will get shooting chances.
And then there are the wings. Nantes are very weak defending against attacks down the wings. Nice are strong attacking down the wings. That is as clean a tactical argument as you’ll ever get. Clauss and Bard will fancy it, and Nantes’ wing-backs will have to decide whether to press high and risk being spun, or sit deep and risk being pinned.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Nantes’ Ligue 1 season has been a slog for goals: 16 in 17 matches, with 10.1 shots per game. That’s a side taking a fair number of efforts but not turning them into a steady stream of scoring. The “weak finishing” tag fits, and it shapes how this cup tie has to be played: if you don’t finish well, you keep games alive longer than you want.
They also don’t have the ball much. Nantes average 42.5% possession with a 79.9% pass completion in Ligue 1. That means long spells without control are normal for them, and it explains why counter-attacking is such a defining strength.
Nice are slightly more dominant on the ball and sharper in circulation, with 47.4% possession and 84.1% pass completion in Ligue 1. They also take more shots: 11.6 per game in the league. But Nice’s own weakness at finishing chances matters here too. More shots doesn’t guarantee more goals if you keep wasting the best ones.
The patterns in the broader match totals are also hard to ignore. Across 18 played games in the “all leagues” section for Nantes, they have 21 goals scored and 31 conceded, an average of 1.72 conceded per match. Nice, across 26 played games, have conceded 48, an average of 1.85 conceded per match. So both teams concede regularly, and neither side has been living in clean-sheet comfort: Nantes have 3 clean sheets in those 18, Nice have 2 in 26.
Then there’s the match texture in the attacking sequences. Nice have 889 dangerous attacks listed compared to Nantes’ 519, and more corners too: 125 compared to 53. That doesn’t just mean Nice attack more; it means they spend more time forcing blocks, clearances, and restarts in the final third — exactly the kind of pressure that tests a defence that already struggles with set pieces and wing defending.
Individually, Nantes’ goal contributions are spread thin. El-Arabi leads with 3 league goals, while Abline has 2 goals and 2 assists, and Fabien Centonze has 2 goals despite limited minutes. Nice have one clear attacking standout in Sofiane Diop with 6 league goals and 2 assists, plus Clauss with 1 goal and 2 assists, and Cho with 2 goals and 2 assists. That’s where the tie can pivot: whose key attackers actually land their moments?
Key “Moments” to Watch
First, watch the first turnover after Nantes commit their wing-backs. Nantes’ counter-attacks are very strong, but they are also very weak defending counter-attacks. One sloppy pass in midfield and this can turn into a match of end-to-end breaks, with both teams sprinting into space they don’t really want to defend.
Second, keep an eye on the right side of Nice’s attack and Nantes’ left defensive channel. Nantes are very weak defending attacks down the wings, and Nice are strong down the wings. If Clauss starts winning 1v1s and delivering early, Nantes will be forced into emergency defending, and emergency defending leads to set pieces — where Nantes are weak again.
Third, there’s the long-shot factor. Nantes are weak defending long shots, and Nice take long shots. If Nice establish territory, shots from the edge of the area will come quickly, and they’ll keep coming.
Fourth, the set-piece coin flip. Both teams are weak defending set pieces. In a cup tie, where the ball is in the air and everybody is grabbing a shirt, one corner can decide the evening.
What could go wrong with this read? The finishing weakness on both sides can make a match feel predictable and then suddenly absurd. If the best chances are missed early, the tie can drift into a tense, low-quality scrap decided by a deflection, an error, or one moment of brilliance that ignores the tactical patterns completely.
Best Bet for Nantes vs Nice
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Both Teams to Score
This cup tie brings together two sides whose structural flaws align perfectly with their opponent’s attacking strengths, making a clean sheet for either goalkeeper look like a tall order. Nantes arrive with a defensive record that shows consistent vulnerability, having conceded 31 goals across 18 matches in all competitions this season. Their inability to keep opponents at bay is further evidenced by a return of just three clean sheets in that period. While they have struggled for defensive stability, Nantes possess a very strong counter-attack that is specifically designed to exploit the high defensive lines often favoured in knockout football.
Nice arrive with remarkably similar statistical baggage. They have conceded 48 goals in 26 games, averaging 1.85 goals against per match, and have managed only two clean sheets in that entire span. Their defensive frailty is particularly pronounced when dealing with counter-attacks, which happens to be Nantes’ primary weapon. Furthermore, Nice are strong at attacking down the wings and creating chances through intricate through balls, targeting the exact areas where Nantes are weakest.
The tactical overlap here is undeniable. Nantes are very weak at defending against attacks down the flanks, which is exactly where Nice focus their offensive energy through players like Jonathan Clauss and Melvin Bard. Conversely, Nice are very weak at defending against long shots and counter-attacks—the two pillars of the Nantes offensive strategy. With both teams also sharing a significant weakness in defending set pieces, the probability of at least one goal for each side is high. Recent form supports this trend of high-scoring, open games, such as Nantes’ recent 5-3 cup victory over Concarneau and Nice’s 2-1 win against Saint-Etienne. Given that both sides possess “weak finishing” but create a high volume of dangerous attacks, the game is likely to yield chances at both ends as defensive errors inevitably creep in under cup pressure.
What could go wrong
The primary risk to this selection is the documented finishing inefficiency of both squads. If the strikers fail to convert the high-quality chances created by the wing play and through balls, or if the match devolves into a cautious, mid-block stalemate where both teams are too afraid of their own defensive weaknesses to commit men forward, the scoreline could remain deceptively low despite the tactical openings.
Correct score lean: 1-2
A 2-1 victory for Nice aligns with the tactical reality that they possess a higher volume of dangerous attacks and superior ball retention. While Nantes will likely exploit Nice’s vulnerability on the counter to find the net, Nice’s strength in creating chances through balls and wing play should allow them to outlast a Nantes side that averages less than 43% possession. Nice’s 11.6 shots per game suggest they will eventually find the second breakthrough against a home defense that is notably weak at defending the very wide areas Nice prioritizes.
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