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Can Algeria’s revived edge outlast Nigeria’s reinvigorated firepower? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Chelsea have conceded multiple goals in four of their last five league games and are missing key defenders. Brentford are unbeaten in six and have scored 35 league goals this season, led by the clinical Igor Thiago. Chelsea's high possession and Brentford's elite counter-attacking suggest a game with frequent transitions and high goal volume.
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Brentford have a proven track record of taking points from Chelsea (7 of 9 PL games). Chelsea’s current winless streak and defensive instability make an away win likely, but Chelsea's attacking metrics (13.9 shots per game) suggest they will get on the scoresheet.
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Algeria vs Nigeria Predictions and Best Bets
Algeria vs Nigeria — William Hill Market Snapshot
Explore key quarter-final markets with pricing and implied outcomes from William Hill.
Pricing indicates a tight contest with Nigeria holding a slight edge in regulation time as they aim for the semi-finals.
With both teams averaging high shot volumes, the market reflects a balanced 50% likelihood of both teams hitting the net.
- Lookman’s takeover: Ademola Lookman has 3 goals and 4 assists in 3 Africa Cup of Nations appearances, plus a tournament rating of 8.81 and 2 Man of the Match awards.
- Shot volume clash: Nigeria are averaging 17.8 shots per game in the tournament with 12 goals in 4 matches, while Algeria have 8 goals in 4 matches from 13 shots per game.
- Ball control profiles: Nigeria have 63.1% possession and 89.8% pass success at this AFCON, compared to Algeria’s 55.1% possession and 87.0% pass success, shaping how each side dictates tempo.
Offensive Intensity: Shots Per Game
Both teams demonstrate a high-frequency approach to attacking, with high volumes of shots suggesting constant pressure on the opposition box.
Algeria’s front three find high-quality shooting positions through wide rotations and deep runs.
Nigeria’s striker-heavy system generates a relentless stream of attempts from central zones.
Technical Control: Pass Success Rate
The high technical ceiling of both midfields is reflected in their ability to move the ball with precision under pressure.
Reliable distribution allows Algeria to sustain attacks and recycle play through their wide men.
High accuracy in the final third helps Nigeria penetrate deep defensive blocks effectively.
A proper quarter-final, this. Algeria versus Nigeria at the CAF Africa Cup of Nations, in what has been a very strong field, lands as another heavyweight match-up that feels like it should come with a deep breath and a seatbelt.
Algeria arrive with momentum and a sense of rediscovered edge under Vladimir Petkovic. They have looked like one of the stronger, more effective sides on the continent again, with real quality in the final third and a run of form that has carried them through the group and into the last eight. Their round-of-16 night in Rabat was the type that hardens a team: a 1-0 win over DR Congo settled deep into the second half of extra-time by Adil Boulbina.
Nigeria turn up with a different kind of energy: reinvigorated, sharper in recent weeks, and carrying the faint crackle of drama that never seems far away. Eric Chelle has them playing better, especially going forward, yet the build-up to this one comes with chaos around Victor Osimhen after an argument with Ademola Lookman during the 4-0 hammering of Mozambique in the last 16 and reports Osimhen has left camp.
So the stage is set at Stade de Marrakech on 10 January 2026, with the temperature listed at 15°. Two sides playing well enough to win it, two dressing rooms with their own moving parts, and 90 minutes that may not be enough to separate them.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Algeria have a few issues. Ismael Bennacer went off last week and is a doubt, while Houssem Aouar is a confirmed absentee alongside Jaouen Hadjam, Samir Chergui and Mohamed Tougaï.
The predicted Algeria XI is a 4-3-3: Luca Zidane in goal; Rafik Belghali, Aïssa Mandi, Ramy Bensebaini and Rayan Aït-Nouri across the back; Hicham Boudaoui, Himad Abdelli and Ibrahim Maza in midfield; with Riyad Mahrez, Mohammed Amoura and Farès Chaïbi as the front line. In simple terms, that’s a side built to carry threat from wide areas and still have enough footballers inside to keep the ball moving.
Nigeria’s big question is Osimhen. It has not been officially confirmed whether he is out of contention, and the predicted line-up assumes he returns for the quarter-final. Dessers is listed as unavailable.
The predicted Nigeria XI is a 4-1-2-1-2: Stanley Nwabali; Bright Osayi-Samuel, Semi Ajayi, Calvin Bassey, Bruno Onyemaechi; Wilfred Ndidi; Frank Onyeka and Alex Iwobi; Ademola Lookman; Victor Osimhen and Akor Adams. That shape is narrow by nature, striker-heavy, and geared towards getting runners close to the box rather than living on the touchline.
How the Match Could Be Played
This match starts as a shapes clash before it becomes anything else. Algeria’s 4-3-3 naturally stretches the pitch, especially with Mahrez and Amoura offering wide points and Chaïbi capable of drifting between wing and half-space. Nigeria’s 4-1-2-1-2 is built to crowd central zones, with Ndidi holding, Onyeka and Iwobi shuttling, and Lookman operating close to the strikers.
That immediately puts the spotlight on the flanks. Algeria’s width asks Nigeria’s full-backs to make constant decisions: step out to the winger and leave gaps behind, or hold their line and let Mahrez and Amoura receive facing forward. If Nigeria’s full-backs jump early, Algeria can turn that into quick diagonal passes into the channel for Amoura or into the inside lane for Chaïbi arriving at speed. If they sit off, Algeria get time to combine and pick the moment for the final pass.
Nigeria’s counter to that is the central squeeze. With two strikers on the pitch and Lookman behind them, they can pin Algeria’s centre-backs and create the sort of chaos that forces hurried clearances. Osimhen and Adams both sit high in the predicted XI, so Algeria’s build-up has to be clean. The more Nigeria can force play into rushed balls through the middle, the more the second ball belongs to Ndidi and the shuttlers, and suddenly the pitch tilts.
Bennacer’s status matters here because it changes Algeria’s midfield balance. If he doesn’t start, Algeria lose a natural controller in the middle of the pitch. That means more responsibility on Boudaoui to connect the phases and on Maza to carry the ball into dangerous areas rather than waiting for it. Algeria can still play, but the rhythm changes: the game becomes more about breaking lines through movement, not simply settling it with a midfielder who keeps the metronome ticking.
Nigeria’s own balance depends on whether the Osimhen situation settles. If he plays, Nigeria have a focal point who turns half-chances into shots quickly, and Lookman’s role becomes even more dangerous because he can arrive to finish moves rather than start them. If he doesn’t play, the whole front line changes its feel. Either way, the episode around the Lookman–Osimhen argument hangs over the opening stages: the first misplaced pass, the first shout, the first moment the camera lingers on a reaction, all of it shapes the atmosphere.
In possession, Algeria have clear routes. Mahrez is the obvious right-sided conductor, someone who can slow the game down with one touch and speed it up with the next. With Aït-Nouri behind him on the left, Algeria can also build attacks by switching play quickly to the far side, forcing Nigeria’s diamond to sprint across and defend bigger spaces than it wants to.
Nigeria’s most direct route is brutal simplicity: win it, play forward early, and get Lookman close enough to the strikers that he can either slip a pass in behind or take the shot himself. When that is working, it looks fluent because it is compact; the distances are short, the box gets loaded, and defenders get dragged into last-ditch decisions.
The match, then, becomes a tug-of-war over where the ball lives. Algeria want the game stretched and played in wide corridors. Nigeria want it condensed, frantic, and played through the middle with quick punchy actions near the box.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Algeria have scored eight goals in four Africa Cup of Nations matches, and they have averaged 13 shots per game. That is a team producing regular attempts rather than waiting for perfect chances, and it matters against a narrow Nigeria shape because it rewards early shooting when the centre gets crowded.
Nigeria’s attacking volume has been even higher: 12 goals in four tournament matches, with 17.8 shots per game. That is relentless pressure on the opponent’s box, and it matters here because Algeria’s back line faces constant decisions about stepping out to engage Lookman or holding the line against Osimhen and Adams.
The ball also sits differently between these sides. Algeria’s tournament possession is 55.1% with an 87.0% pass success rate; Nigeria’s is 63.1% with 89.8% pass success. In plain terms, Nigeria have controlled more of the ball and moved it with slightly cleaner accuracy, which matters because a diamond system becomes far more difficult to defend against when it circulates the ball quickly and keeps opponents chasing.
Individual outputs sharpen the picture. For Algeria, Mahrez has three goals from three appearances and a tournament rating of 7.55, which means Algeria already have a proven end-product player in the front line. Maza has two goals and one assist in three starts plus one substitute appearance, which means Algeria carry a second source of scoring and creation from deeper or inside positions.
Nigeria’s headline is Lookman: three goals and four assists in three appearances, with a rating of 8.81 and two player-of-the-match awards. That is match-winning involvement almost every time he plays, and it matters because the diamond leans on the “10” to connect everything. Osimhen has three goals and one assist in four appearances and is averaging 4.5 shots per game, which means Nigeria generate a constant stream of finishing actions when he is on the pitch.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first big moment is emotional as much as tactical: how Nigeria start, and whether the front players look connected or slightly edgy. If Lookman and Osimhen are on the same wavelength early, Nigeria’s diamond becomes a problem straight away because it pulls defenders into uncomfortable distances. If the tempo is there but the links aren’t, Algeria will feel it and grow into the game.
The second moment is the wide-versus-narrow battle. If Algeria can get Mahrez receiving in space and turning to face Onyemaechi and Bassey sliding across, the match starts to open. If Nigeria can trap Algeria’s wide play and win second balls centrally through Ndidi, Onyeka and Iwobi, the match starts to feel like a wave coming back at Algeria over and over again.
The third moment is finishing efficiency under pressure. Nigeria have already shown they can blow a game open, as the 4-0 win over Mozambique proved. Algeria have shown they can survive a tight, draining night and still win it late, as the extra-time winner against DR Congo proved. In a quarter-final, those are the two extreme ways matches swing: either one side finds a ruthless streak, or it stays tight until one decisive action lands.
What could go wrong with this read? One set-piece or one deflection can rip up a neat tactical story in seconds, especially when both sides have attackers producing high volumes of shots. Early cards can also distort pressing and duels, because players stop stepping in as aggressively and the whole shape becomes a fraction slower. In a game that already feels tense and even, fine margins don’t just matter — they decide everything.
Best Bet for Algeria vs Nigeria
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Both Teams to Score
Algeria enters this quarter-final with a potent attacking record, having scored eight goals in their four tournament matches. They rely on the creative influence of Riyad Mahrez, who has already netted three times, and the clinical movement of Mohammed Amoura. Under Vladimir Petkovic, the side has transitioned into a highly effective offensive unit that averages 13 shots per game. Even in tight knockout scenarios, they have shown the patience to find a breakthrough, as evidenced by their 1-0 victory over DR Congo in the previous round. Their 4-3-3 system is specifically designed to exploit wide areas and force defensive errors, making it highly probable they find the net against a Nigeria side that only just recorded its first clean sheet of the competition.
Nigeria is the most prolific team in the tournament, boasting 12 goals in four matches. Their offensive volume is unmatched, averaging 17.8 shots per game. The synergy between Ademola Lookman and Victor Osimhen has been devastating; Lookman has contributed three goals and four assists, while Osimhen has three goals to his name. Even with internal drama surrounding an on-pitch argument in the last 16, their statistical output remains elite. Nigeria’s narrow 4-1-2-1-2 diamond formation is engineered to flood the central zones and create high-quality chances through rapid transitions. Given they have scored in every single match so far, their ability to breach the Algerian defense is virtually guaranteed.
The tactical setup of both teams invites goals. Nigeria’s high line and aggressive pressing style naturally leave space for Algeria’s wingers to exploit on the counter. Conversely, Algeria’s midfield, potentially missing the controlling presence of Ismael Bennacer, will struggle to contain the constant runs from Nigeria’s strike duo and the late arrivals of Lookman. With both sides maintaining pass success rates near 90% and high possession figures, the quality of service to the forwards ensures a match where neither goalkeeper is likely to keep a clean sheet.
What could go wrong
The primary risk to this selection is a “cautious quarter-final” syndrome, where both managers prioritize defensive shape over offensive risks to avoid a tournament exit. If Nigeria chooses to sit deeper to negate Algeria’s wide threat, or if the absence of key midfielders for Algeria leads to a disjointed transition between defense and attack, the game could descend into a cagey midfield battle with limited clear-cut opportunities.
Correct score lean
2-2
Both teams possess immense firepower and a tendency to prioritize attack over defensive caution. Nigeria has averaged three goals per game throughout the tournament, while Algeria has consistently found the net in every fixture. The statistical profiles of both sides—averaging over 13 shots per game each—suggest a high-frequency shooting match. With Nigeria’s tendency to leave gaps behind their diamond and Algeria’s potential lack of midfield control due to injuries, a high-scoring stalemate is the logical conclusion. A 2-2 draw reflects the high offensive efficiency of Lookman, Osimhen, and Mahrez while acknowledging that neither defense has been truly impenetrable against elite opposition.
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