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Can Newcastle’s control at St James’ Park break Leeds United’s unbeaten run? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Metz concedes 2.24 goals per game, the worst in the league, while Strasbourg has won the last six head-to-head meetings.
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Strasbourg's 10 clean sheets and Metz's weak finishing suggest a comfortable shutout win for the home side.
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Newcastle United vs Leeds United Predictions and Best Bets
Newcastle vs Leeds — BetMGM Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample BetMGM odds based on our match analysis.
Exchange prices suggest Newcastle have the edge at home following back-to-back league wins, despite Leeds’ unbeaten streak.
Both teams have scoring threats in Woltemade and Calvert-Lewin, making the goals market highly relevant for this fixture.
- Newcastle’s control shows in volume and balance: 28 league goals scored, 24 conceded and an average of 52.5% possession, allowing sustained pressure without turning matches into open shootouts.
- Leeds’ resilience is built on repetition rather than dominance: unbeaten in their last seven league matches despite averaging just 46.0% possession, forcing opponents to break them down repeatedly.
- Key scorers shape the contest centrally: Bruno Guimarães and Nick Woltemade have seven league goals each for Newcastle, while Dominic Calvert-Lewin leads Leeds with eight, keeping both penalty areas under constant threat.
Control and Precision: Technical Comparison
A look at how both sides manage the ball, with Newcastle favouring a higher volume of possession and passing accuracy.
Newcastle aim to spend significant time in the opposition half with a pass accuracy of 83.1%.
Leeds are comfortable with less of the ball, relying on transitions and an 80.4% pass accuracy.
Attacking Volume: Shots per Match
While their league positions differ, both sides generate an identical volume of offensive opportunities.
The Magpies have scored 28 goals this season, using high crossing volume and late midfield runs.
Leeds match the hosts for shot volume despite lower possession, resulting in 26 goals so far.
St James’ Park stages a meeting shaped by momentum pulling in different directions, as Newcastle United welcome Leeds United on Wednesday night in the Premier League. Newcastle arrive chasing a third straight league win, a run that has lifted them into ninth place and restored a sense of traction after a stuttering spell earlier in the winter. Leeds, meanwhile, travel north carrying a different kind of confidence. They are unbeaten in their last seven league fixtures and, despite sitting 16th, have developed a stubborn resilience that has kept them competitive week after week.
The contrast is sharp without being dramatic. Newcastle have climbed into the top half with 29 points from 20 matches. Leeds sit four points behind on 22. One side has edged upward through wins at Burnley and home success against Crystal Palace. The other has leaned heavily on draws, refusing to fold even when pushed back for long spells. The league positions tell one story; the recent patterns tell another.
What binds them is the sense that this match matters more than the table might immediately suggest. Newcastle want to turn a solid home sequence into sustained pressure on the teams above them. Leeds want to ensure their unbeaten run does more than just tread water. With two sides that both favour structure over chaos, the evening looks set to hinge on control of territory, discipline in transition, and how well each team protects its weaker moments.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Newcastle’s possible starting lineup points clearly towards their familiar 4-3-3 structure. Nick Pope is listed in goal, with Lewis Miley, Malick Thiaw, Fabian Schär and Lewis Hall forming the back four. Bruno Guimarães, Sandro Tonali and Joelinton make up the midfield three, while Jacob Murphy, Nick Woltemade and Anthony Gordon are named across the front line.
That selection leans heavily into Newcastle’s core strengths. Thiaw and Schär provide aerial security at centre-back, supported by a midfield that can both circulate the ball and arrive late into attacking zones. Woltemade leads the line not as a static reference point but as a forward comfortable linking play, while Gordon and Murphy stretch the pitch and invite early crosses. The balance is clear: Newcastle want to spend time in the opposition’s half, move the ball with patience, and apply pressure without overcommitting.
Leeds’ possible starting lineup suggests a three-at-the-back shape. Lucas Perri is named in goal, with Jaka Bijol, Sebastiaan Bornauw and Pascal Struijk forming the defensive trio. James Justin and Gabriel Gudmundsson operate as wing-backs, with Anton Stach, Brenden Aaronson and Ethan Ampadu across midfield. Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Newcastle are listed as the front pairing, the latter name appearing exactly as provided.
Structurally, that setup fits Leeds’ identity. They are comfortable playing in their own half, defending compactly, and breaking through the middle rather than relying purely on width. Calvert-Lewin is the clear reference point up front, while Aaronson and Stach offer legs and forward thrust from midfield. The wing-backs are crucial: they must protect against Newcastle’s wide play while also providing the out-ball when Leeds look to escape pressure.
There is tension here too. Leeds are very weak defending against skillful players and very weak defending against through-ball attacks. Newcastle’s front line is built to test exactly that, especially when Guimarães steps forward and Gordon drives diagonally inside.
How the Match Could Be Played
The opening shape of the game feels straightforward. Newcastle will look to dominate territory, recycling possession across the back and midfield before pushing Hall and Murphy high to create width. Leeds are likely to sit deeper, inviting Newcastle forward while keeping their central block tight. That immediately places emphasis on Newcastle’s ability to move the ball quickly enough to shift Leeds’ shape.
Newcastle’s style points towards repeated pressure rather than constant vertical risk. They attempt crosses often, take long shots, and control the game in the opposition’s half. Against Leeds, that approach has logic. Leeds are weak at keeping possession of the ball, so Newcastle can afford to recycle attacks knowing turnovers are likely to come back their way. The challenge is what happens next.
Leeds’ biggest threat lies in transitions through the centre. They attack through the middle and are strong at coming back from losing positions. When Newcastle lose the ball high up the pitch, Leeds can look immediately for Calvert-Lewin’s movement and Aaronson’s support runs. Newcastle are weak defending counter attacks and weak at protecting the lead, which means any lapse in rest defence becomes magnified. One missed tackle in midfield, one mistimed step from the back line, and Leeds are running straight at Pope.
The wing battle is another defining area. Newcastle attack down the right and attempt crosses often. Leeds are weak defending against attacks down the wings. That puts pressure on Gudmundsson and Justin to manage two jobs at once: closing down the wide men and preventing cutbacks into the box. If they drop too deep, Newcastle’s midfielders have space to shoot from range. If they step out aggressively, they risk leaving gaps behind them for diagonal runs.
Set pieces also loom large. Newcastle are strong attacking set pieces and strong defending set pieces. Leeds are very strong attacking set pieces and strong shooting from direct free kicks. That combination turns every dead-ball situation into a potential momentum swing. Newcastle will back themselves to defend deliveries, but Leeds have enough aerial presence through Struijk, Bijol and Calvert-Lewin to ensure those moments are never routine.
Tempo matters too. Both sides are described as non-aggressive in their style labels, which means the match is more likely to ebb and flow than explode. Newcastle will probe, Leeds will absorb, and long spells could pass without clear chances before one moment suddenly shifts the balance.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Newcastle’s Premier League output paints the picture of a side comfortable with control. They have scored 28 goals in 20 league matches while conceding 24, and they average 12.7 shots per game. That combination reflects sustained pressure rather than wild exchanges. Their possession average of 52.5% and pass accuracy of 83.1% underline a team that values structure and ball retention.
Leeds’ numbers tell a different story. They have scored 26 goals and conceded 33 in the same number of matches, with an average of 12.7 shots per game as well. The shot volume matches Newcastle’s, but it comes from a very different base. Leeds average 46.0% possession and complete 80.4% of their passes, meaning their attacks are more often launched from deeper areas and built with fewer touches.
Individual contributions sharpen that contrast. Bruno Guimarães has seven league goals and two assists, making him Newcastle’s joint top scorer and a central figure in both buildup and finishing. Woltemade also has seven league goals, reinforcing Newcastle’s threat through the middle. For Leeds, Calvert-Lewin’s eight goals stand out. He is their most reliable source of finishing, and his aerial strength matters against a Newcastle side that otherwise dominates the air.
Recent match patterns support the tactical read. Newcastle have won three of their last six matches across competitions, while Leeds have drawn five of their last six. That split explains why Newcastle feel closer to momentum and Leeds closer to resilience. It also explains why the first goal carries weight, especially given Newcastle’s weakness protecting the lead and Leeds’ strength at responding when behind.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first key moment is how Newcastle handle their own turnovers. They want to play in the opposition’s half. Leeds want space to break into. When Newcastle lose the ball with both full-backs advanced, Leeds’ ability to attack through the middle becomes decisive.
The second is the duel between Newcastle’s wide play and Leeds’ wing-backs. Newcastle crossing volume tests Leeds’ weakest defensive area. Leeds surviving those periods without conceding corners and set pieces keeps them alive in the contest.
The third revolves around Calvert-Lewin in the box. Newcastle are strong in aerial duels, but Leeds are very strong at attacking set pieces. One well-timed run, one loose marker, and the match can turn quickly.
What could go wrong with this read? Newcastle’s control can drift into predictability if the tempo drops too low, allowing Leeds to settle into their block. Leeds’ lack of possession control can also hand Newcastle repeated waves of pressure, making resistance harder to sustain over ninety minutes.
Best Bet for Newcastle vs Leeds
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Both Teams to Score
The dynamic of this fixture points toward goals at both ends. Newcastle enter this match with growing momentum, sitting ninth in the table after a solid start to 2026. They have scored 28 goals in 20 league matches and possess a strike force that is particularly effective at home. With Nick Woltemade and Bruno Guimarães both leading their scoring charts with seven goals each, Newcastle have multiple avenues to goal. They frequently control territory, averaging 52.5% possession, and their tendency to attempt a high volume of crosses (12.7 shots per game) will directly target Leeds’ known defensive frailties on the wings.
Leeds, despite their 16th-place standing, are far from a spent force. They are currently on a seven-match unbeaten run in the Premier League, their longest such streak since 2001. A key factor in this resurgence has been the clinical form of Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who has netted eight goals this season. Leeds are especially dangerous in transition and through the middle—areas where Newcastle have shown vulnerability. Newcastle are weak at defending counter-attacks and have struggled to protect leads, providing an opening for a Leeds side that is strong at coming back from losing positions.
Furthermore, Leeds are very strong at attacking set pieces and direct free kicks, adding another layer of threat against a Newcastle defense that, while generally stable, has conceded 24 goals this term. The tactical setup for Leeds focuses on playing in their own half and breaking quickly, which exploits Newcastle’s habit of pushing full-backs high. With both teams possessing clear offensive strengths that align with the other’s defensive weaknesses, a clean sheet for either side appears unlikely.
What could go wrong
Newcastle’s tendency to control the game with a non-aggressive tempo could lead to a stalemate if Leeds choose to sit extremely deep. If Newcastle’s ball circulation becomes too predictable and Leeds fail to capitalize on their limited transition opportunities, the match could lack the clinical finishing required to see both nets bulge, potentially mirroring the 0-0 draw seen earlier this season.
Correct score lean: 2-1
Newcastle’s home advantage and superior overall points tally (29 to Leeds’ 22) give them the slight edge in a competitive encounter. While Leeds have developed a stubborn habit of drawing games—five of their last six have ended level—Newcastle’s recent back-to-back wins over Burnley and Crystal Palace show they are finding ways to secure three points. The Magpies’ strength in the air and high shot volume should eventually overwhelm a Leeds defense that has conceded 33 goals this season. A 2-1 result reflects Newcastle’s offensive pressure while acknowledging Leeds’ ability to score through Calvert-Lewin.
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