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Can Gil Vicente’s set-piece threat and Pablo’s finishing disrupt Sporting’s shot-heavy control in Barcelos? Read on for complete analysis and the best betting tips.
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Both teams share significant defensive weaknesses, specifically in defending set pieces and wide attacks. Leicester’s tendency for individual errors and fouling in dangerous areas provides a clear path for Cheltenham to score, especially given the home side’s strength in direct free kicks. Conversely, Leicester’s offensive quality and high finishing rate should see them exploit a Cheltenham defense that has conceded 51 goals this season. The combination of these factors points toward an open game where neither keeper is likely to remain untested.
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A 2-1 scoreline aligns with the expectation that both teams will find the back of the net while acknowledging Leicester's superior squad depth and clinical finishing. Leicester averages 1.44 goals per game and is playing against a side two divisions lower, suggesting they will find the winner. However, their defensive record of 40 goals conceded in 27 games, paired with Cheltenham’s home momentum and set-piece threat, suggests the League Two side will at least claim a goal of their own.
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Gil Vicente vs Sporting Lisbon Predictions and Best Bets
Gil Vicente vs Sporting Lisbon — William Hill Market Snapshot
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Sporting’s dominant form and 46-goal tally make them heavy favourites despite Gil Vicente’s resilience at the Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
- Sporting’s scoring machine: Sporting CP have 46 goals in 16 Liga Portugal matches, with Luis Suárez contributing 14 goals and three assists to underline their multi-threat attack.
- Gil Vicente’s finisher in form: Pablo has 10 goals in 13 league appearances, plus four man-of-the-match awards, making him the obvious focal point for counters and box moments.
- Control versus counter volume: Sporting average 61.9% possession and 19.6 shots per league game, while Gil Vicente average 49.3% possession and 13.9 shots, shaping the likely tempo and territory.
Offensive Output: League Goals Scored
Sporting’s attack has been the most productive in the league, while Gil Vicente relies on a more efficient, concentrated scoring rate.
With a prolific average of 2.88 goals per game, the visitors have the highest goal tally in the division.
The Roosters have maintained a steady scoring rate, largely driven by Pablo’s 10 individual strikes.
Attacking Pressure: Shots per Match
Sporting’s relentless pressure results in nearly 20 attempts on goal every match.
Despite lower possession, Gil Vicente manages a healthy number of attempts, often via counter-attacks.
Primeira Liga returns on Friday with a fixture that feels like two different ambitions colliding at full volume. Gil Vicente, the Roosters, welcome Sporting CP to Estádio Cidade de Barcelos looking to strengthen their spot in the top four. Sporting, sitting second, arrive with a very specific target of their own: trimming a five-point gap to the summit, even if only for the time being.
On the face of it, the table gives the night a crisp edge. Sporting have 41 points from 16 matches, scoring 46 and conceding just eight. Gil Vicente are fourth with 27 points from 16, with 21 goals for and 11 against. That’s not a gulf in identity so much as a gulf in output: Gil Vicente look organised and hard to pull apart, while Sporting’s numbers suggest a side that can overwhelm teams in long spells.
But the recent mood around both clubs points in different directions again. Gil Vicente’s last six matches include five draws and a defeat, a run that can feel like a treadmill: you’re moving, but you’re not quite going anywhere. Sporting, on the other hand, have stacked up big domestic wins in their latest sequence, including 6-0 against AVS Futebol SAD and 4-0 against Rio Ave. The early question, then, is whether Gil Vicente can turn their solidity and set-piece punch into something that disrupts Sporting’s rhythm, or whether Sporting’s chance creation simply keeps coming in waves until the dam gives.
There is also something pleasingly symmetrical about the styles on show. Gil Vicente are built around counter-attacks, attacking set pieces, long shots and crosses, with a “very strong” tag for direct free-kick shooting. Sporting bring short passing, through balls, possession football and control in the opposition’s half, backed by a long list of “very strong” attacking strengths. It’s the classic tug-of-war: set pieces and moments versus sustained pressure and pattern play.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Gil Vicente’s possible starting lineup is: Andrew; Ze Carlos, Espigares, Elimbi, H Santos; S Garcia, Caseres; T Toure, Esteves, Murilo; Pablo.
That reads like a 4-2-3-1, which aligns with their formation summary. Andrew has started 16 league games and has three man-of-the-match awards, suggesting he’s been central to their ability to keep games tight. In front of him, Antonio Espigares and Marvin Elimbi offer youthful legs at the back, with Zé Carlos and Hevertton Santos as the full-back options in that listed XI.
In midfield, Facundo Cáseres is a classic holding profile on paper: 16 league appearances, a modest shooting output, and a strong pass completion at 87.3%. Luís Esteves looks like the engine and the connector, with three goals and three assists, plus a 7.04 rating. Ahead of them, Murilo de Souza’s two goals and three assists hint at a player who can carry threat between the lines, while Santi García offers another layer of support behind the striker.
And then there’s Pablo. Ten league goals in 13 appearances is elite production in this match, and his 7.41 rating is the standout in Gil Vicente’s squad list. If Gil Vicente want this to be more than a defensive exercise, Pablo is the obvious route: fast breaks, set pieces, second balls, and moments where a half-chance becomes something bigger.
Sporting’s possible starting lineup is: Silva; Vagiannidis, Quaresma, Inacio, Mangas; Simoes, Hjulmand; Trincao; Ioannidis, M Araujo; Suarez.
This also points towards a 4-2-3-1, consistent with Sporting’s formation summary. Rui Silva is listed as the goalkeeper, with Georgios Vagiannidis and Ricardo Mangas providing width from full-back areas. Gonçalo Inácio anchors the defence in the XI, and Sporting’s individual defensive numbers suggest he’s a key organiser: 16 appearances, 90% pass success, and 1.9 aerials won per game.
In midfield, Morten Hjulmand is a major presence, with a 7.18 rating and 91.5% pass completion. João Simões is listed alongside him in the possible XI, which points to Sporting’s desire to control the centre with reliable ball retention. Trincão then appears as the advanced creator, and his numbers back that up: six assists in the league, four goals, and a 7.59 rating.
The forward line is where Sporting can feel relentless. Luis Suárez has 14 league goals and three assists, while Pote has nine goals and five assists, even though he isn’t listed in the possible XI. Fotis Ioannidis is named in the XI and has three league goals from limited minutes. Maxi Araújo is also named, and he has four league goals, which speaks to Sporting’s ability to get output from wide areas too.
There is a small but relevant availability note for Gil Vicente: Mohamed Bamba and J. Natário Ferreira are listed as injured. The reasons given suggest one unknown injury and an arm injury, respectively.
How the Match Could Be Played
Tactically, the clearest starting point is where each side prefers to spend its time. Sporting’s style is built around controlling the game in the opposition’s half, using short passes and through balls, with possession football and a “non-aggressive” tag that implies they don’t need chaos to win the ball. They can simply squeeze you, push you back, and make the pitch feel narrow.
Gil Vicente’s profile is almost the counterpoint. They attack down the left, take long shots, attempt crosses often and take a lot of shots. They’re also strong on counter-attacks and very strong at set pieces — both corners and direct free kicks. That combination usually points to a very specific plan: survive the long stretches without the ball, force the game into wide areas, and then make the moments count when the ball does stick.
So the first tactical theme is spacing. Sporting will want their full-backs and wide attackers to pin Gil Vicente’s wide defenders, creating lanes for Trincão to receive and slip through balls. Gil Vicente, in turn, will want to keep their midfield screen compact, protecting the central corridor and nudging Sporting towards the wings. That’s where it becomes a little delicate for Sporting, because their weaknesses include aerial duels and defending against long shots — and Gil Vicente’s strengths and style include crosses, long shots, and dangerous dead balls.
The second theme is transition control. Sporting are very strong at stealing the ball from the opposition and strong on counter-attacks. That’s important, because it suggests Sporting aren’t just a “possession for possession’s sake” side; they can punish you the moment you lose it. Gil Vicente’s 4-2-3-1 has outlets built in — Murilo, Esteves, and Pablo — but if those players are pinned too deep, the counter threat can become one isolated runner with no support.
The third theme is set pieces and how they’re earned. Gil Vicente are very strong at shooting from direct free kicks and very strong at attacking set pieces. Sporting are very strong at defending set pieces. That clash is fascinating because it pits a clear home strength against an equally clear away strength. For Gil Vicente, the goal is not necessarily to outplay Sporting for 90 minutes; it’s to make sure the match contains enough set-piece moments in good areas that one delivery, one second ball, or one direct strike can turn the script.
And finally, there’s the aerial question. Both teams have “weak” listed for aerial duels in their characteristics, yet Gil Vicente’s own player list shows Pablo (2.5 aerials won per game) and Espigares (2.9) as prominent in that area, while Sporting have Ousmane Diomande at 2.8 and Inácio at 1.9. That matters because if the game tilts into crosses, corners, and free-kicks, the match can become less about pass maps and more about who wins contact.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Sporting’s league numbers are loud and hard to ignore. They have scored 46 goals in 16 Liga Portugal matches — 2.69 per game in the broader “all leagues league” block — while conceding only eight. That blend of scoring volume and defensive stinginess is exactly why they can talk about closing gaps at the top rather than simply protecting second place.
Their process metrics also support the idea of sustained pressure. Sporting average 19.6 shots per league match and carry 61.9% possession with an 87.5% pass completion rate. That trio matters because it explains the likely feel of the game: a lot of Sporting touches in Gil Vicente territory, a lot of probing, and a lot of sequences that end in attempts on goal.
Gil Vicente’s numbers are more balanced, and in some ways more intriguing. They’ve scored 21 in 16 league games and conceded 11, and they average 13.9 shots per match with 49.3% possession. That combination suggests they are not a purely reactive side. They shoot plenty, they get forward, and they can hurt teams — with Pablo’s 10 goals a clear sign that when chances arrive, they have someone capable of making them count.
The shot profile also hints at how each side might approach risk. Sporting’s 18.19 shots per game figure in the match block is a reminder that they can keep firing until something lands. Gil Vicente’s 13.76 isn’t small either. If the match opens up, you could see a night where both teams have spells of momentum rather than one long siege.
Then there’s the finishing and chance creation at individual level. Suárez’s 14 goals and three assists, Pote’s nine and five, and Trincão’s six assists show Sporting can attack you in multiple ways: a finisher, a second scorer/creator, and a primary provider. Gil Vicente’s story is more concentrated, but no less dangerous: Pablo’s 10 goals and Luís Esteves’ three goals and three assists offer a clear path to threatening moments.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first moment to watch is the opening 15 minutes: not for drama, but for geography. If Sporting immediately keep Gil Vicente boxed in, the match becomes about whether Gil Vicente can survive without conceding cheap set pieces and whether Pablo can get service early enough to make Sporting defenders uncomfortable. If Gil Vicente can push Sporting back even a little — a couple of counters, a couple of long shots, a couple of corners — the game starts to look more like a contest than an exercise.
The second is how Sporting deal with dead balls. Gil Vicente’s strength at direct free kicks is labelled “very strong”, and their set-piece attacking is also “very strong”. Even with Sporting’s excellent set-piece defending, the sheer repetition of those situations can create messy moments: flick-ons, second balls, and rebounds that tempt long shots — exactly the area Sporting are tagged as weak at defending against.
Third, keep an eye on the creators versus the screens. Trincão’s six assists and Hjulmand’s ability to keep the ball moving at 91.5% pass success hint at Sporting’s ability to find the right pass if you give them even half a lane. Gil Vicente’s midfield pairing — Cáseres and Santi García in the possible XI — will need to stay connected, because once that line is broken, the game becomes about emergency defending in the box against Suárez.
What could go wrong with this read? Gil Vicente’s recent run is draw-heavy, which can mean a team is hard to beat — or it can mean a team struggles to turn good spells into decisive moments. If Sporting score early, their strength at protecting the lead can make the game feel like a long chase. On the other hand, if Sporting’s volume doesn’t turn into a breakthrough, the match can become a test of patience, and the kind of scrappy set-piece moment Gil Vicente live for can suddenly look massive.
Best Bet for Gil Vicente vs Sporting CP
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Sporting CP to win and Over 1.5 goals
Sporting CP enters this fixture as the most prolific attacking force in the league, having netted 46 goals in just 16 matches. Their recent domestic form is particularly overwhelming, evidenced by high-scoring victories such as a 6-0 win over AVS Futebol SAD and a 4-0 triumph against Rio Ave. This offensive output is spearheaded by Luis Suárez, who leads the competition with 14 goals, and Trincão, who has contributed six assists and four goals. The visitors average 2.69 goals per game and have managed to strike at least twice in six of their eight away league assignments this season.
While Gil Vicente sits in a respectable fourth place and maintains a disciplined defensive record with only 11 goals conceded, their recent form suggests a struggle to find a winning edge. They have failed to secure a victory in their last six matches, a sequence dominated by five draws and one defeat. Although they are difficult to break down, the sheer volume of Sporting’s shot production—averaging nearly 20 attempts per game—places immense pressure on any backline. Gil Vicente will rely on Pablo, who has 10 league goals, but the defensive absences of Ghislain Konan and Jonathan Buatu on international duty may leave them vulnerable against a Sporting side that dominates 62% of possession.
Historically, the match-up heavily favors the visitors, who have won 11 of the last 13 meetings between these two clubs. Sporting’s ability to control the game in the opposition’s half through short passing and through balls often forces opponents into a defensive shell. Given that Sporting has won seven of their last eight league matches and consistently scores multiple goals, the most logical outcome is an away victory featuring at least two goals.
What could go wrong
Gil Vicente has developed a reputation as “draw specialists” recently, and their ability to stay organized could lead to a frustrated Sporting side if an early breakthrough isn’t found. Furthermore, Gil Vicente is statistically very strong at attacking set pieces and direct free kicks—an area where Sporting has shown relative weakness in aerial duels and defending long-range efforts. If the hosts can capitalize on a dead-ball situation, they could force a low-scoring stalemate.
Correct score lean
Gil Vicente 0-2 Sporting CP
Sporting CP possesses the league’s most effective defense, conceding only eight goals across the entire campaign, which equates to a remarkable average of 0.5 goals per match. Away from home, this defensive stability remains intact, allowing them to control games without needing to overextend. While Gil Vicente is organized, they have failed to find the net in both of their home defeats this season. Given Sporting’s efficiency in protecting a lead and Gil Vicente’s recent run of low-scoring draws, a controlled 2-0 victory for the title challengers is the most likely scoreline.
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