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Will Hibernian’s home edge outweigh Aberdeen’s knack for staying in the fight at Easter Road? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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City’s technical superiority and 15-game home FA Cup winning streak make them heavy favorites, but their recent habit of conceding—seen in three straight draws—aligns with Exeter’s prolific cup form.
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This scoreline reflects City's high shot volume and ability to create high-value chances in the box, while allowing for Exeter's proven ability to score 2+ goals in recent FA Cup ties.
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Hibernian vs Aberdeen Predictions and Best Bets
Hibernian vs Aberdeen — BetMGM Market Snapshot
Market probabilities and pricing shown for information only. Prices are subject to change.
Hibernian enter as favourites following strong home form, while Aberdeen’s implied probability reflects their resilience on the road.
Both teams show high scoring trends, with Aberdeen finding the net in 12 consecutive league fixtures.
- Table pressure with a clear gap in games played: Hibernian sit fifth on 28 points from 19 league matches, while Aberdeen are sixth on 25 points from 18, making this a direct positional contest.
- Both sides shoot often, but the “why” differs: Hibernian average 12.9 shots per league match and Aberdeen 13.3, pointing to a game where attempts could come quickly, especially in transition.
- Easter Road has been productive recently: There have been over 2.5 goals in Hibernian’s last three home league matches, matching a side with 31 league goals from 19 fixtures and a reputation for finishing.
Scoring Reliability: League Form
A look at how consistently these sides find the net, highlighting Aberdeen’s remarkable scoring streak.
The visitors haven’t failed to score in a Premiership match for 12 straight fixtures, demonstrating high offensive reliability.
Easter Road has been a strong platform for the hosts, who have converted their home advantage into points consistently lately.
Offensive Volume: Average Shots per Match
The total number of shots generated per game reflects the attacking intent of both managers.
Two teams separated by a single place in the Scottish Premiership meet on Tuesday when Hibernian host Aberdeen. Fifth plays sixth, and there’s no need to dress it up beyond that: Hibs have 28 points from 19 league fixtures, Aberdeen have 25 from 18, and the table says this is a direct scrap for position.
Easter Road has been kind to Hibernian lately in league terms, with four wins in their last six Premiership home matches. Aberdeen’s recent away results paint a more uneven picture, but the broader league story hints at a side that’s awkward to put away: in their nine most recent Premiership matches they’ve been undefeated eight times, and they’ve scored at least once in each of their last 12 league games. That combination alone sets up the central question of the night — can Hibernian’s home rhythm impose itself, or do Aberdeen’s habits for staying in games keep this on a tightrope?
There’s another layer too: both sides are described as liking their work in transition. Hibernian are tagged as very strong on counter attacks and very strong at finishing chances, while Aberdeen are strong on counter attacks and strong at creating long shot opportunities and through-ball chances. With both teams also flagged as playing in their own half, the early phases could be less about territorial domination and more about who triggers the first proper break in behind. If you’re expecting a slow, polite passing exhibition, you might want to lower the bar a touch.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Hibernian’s possible XI suggests a back five in front of Raphael Sallinger: Megwa, O’Hora, Hanley, Iredale and McGrath. Ahead of them, Mulligan, Barlaser and Campbell are listed as the midfield trio, with Bowie and Boyle leading the line.
That selection hints at a side prepared to defend with numbers, then accelerate quickly when the ball is won. Hibs are described as strong at attacking down the wings and creating chances using through balls, while also attacking through the middle and taking a lot of shots. On paper, that can look like two different teams — but in a back-five structure it often comes together: protect the centre, release the wide outlets, then punch a pass through the inside channels once the defence has been pulled into shape.
Aberdeen’s possible XI has Dimitar Mitov in goal, with Devlin, Milne, Knoester, and Shinnie across the back line. Polvara and Armstrong sit in midfield, while Keskinen, Aouchiche and Karlsson support Kevin Nisbet up front.
Stylistically, Aberdeen are described as aggressive, with an emphasis on long shots and through balls, as well as attacking through the middle and down the left. They also rotate their first eleven, which can influence the rhythm of the game — fresh legs and slightly different profiles in key areas can change how a press lands, or how a counter is carried.
The immediate tension between these likely set-ups is obvious: Hibernian’s back five versus Aberdeen’s central creators. If Aouchiche and Karlsson can find pockets between Hibs’ midfield and defence, Aberdeen can feed Nisbet early and often. If Hibs’ midfield can stay connected to that back line, Aberdeen may find themselves forced into the very thing they’re already inclined towards — long shots — whether by choice or necessity.
How the Match Could Be Played
This feels like a match that could swing between control and chaos depending on who strikes first with their pressing triggers. Hibernian are labelled non-aggressive in their style of play, which can read as a team that prefers to hold shape rather than chase shadows. With a back five, the default is often to let the game come to you, then pick the moment to step in and pounce. Hibs’ counter-attacking strength makes that approach more than just caution; it’s a plan.
So where do the counter-attacks come from? The wings are the obvious launchpad. Hibernian are strong at attacking down the wings, and they’ve got a forward line in Bowie and Boyle that can threaten in different ways: Bowie’s numbers suggest an appetite for shots, while Boyle’s profile reads as a forward who can be involved without necessarily being the primary scorer. If Hibs can turn Aberdeen over in midfield, the first pass wide and early could be the cue — draw the defence across, then either slide a through ball inside or recycle for a better angle to shoot.
Aberdeen, for their part, are described as strong at creating through-ball chances and long shot opportunities. That can mean two things in practice. One is patient probing: tempt Hibs’ midfield to step, then thread a pass behind the wing-back. The other is a more direct rhythm: win the ball, hit the half-space quickly, and back your attackers to make something happen before the back five settles. With Armstrong providing assists in the league and Karlsson taking plenty of shots per game, Aberdeen have reasons to try and set shooting platforms around the edge of the box.
The wide areas are likely to be a genuine contest rather than a sideshow. Hibernian are strong down the wings but also weak at defending attacks down the wings. That’s not as contradictory as it sounds: it often points to wing-backs who commit forward, leaving space to be attacked if the ball is lost. Aberdeen’s preference for attacking down the left, paired with Hibs’ own willingness to use wide routes, suggests the same strip of turf could be used as a runway by both teams — sometimes within the same minute.
Set pieces could hover over everything. Hibernian are strong at defending set pieces, while Aberdeen are weak at defending set pieces and also weak at avoiding fouling in dangerous areas. In a match where fine margins matter, conceding cheap free-kicks and corners isn’t just “pressure” — it’s repeated opportunities to hand the initiative away. Hibs, meanwhile, have a weakness in protecting the lead. If they get in front, the game-state question becomes: can they keep their attacking ambition without leaving the wide spaces open for Aberdeen to swing at them on the counter?
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Hibernian have 31 Premiership goals from 19 matches, and they average 12.9 shots per game. That aligns neatly with the idea of a team that’s comfortable creating and finishing chances — they’re also marked as very strong at finishing scoring chances, which fits a side that doesn’t need ten perfect openings to score.
Aberdeen’s shot volume is even higher: 13.3 shots per league match. That supports their style profile of taking a lot of shots and taking long shots. It also matters tactically because a high shot count doesn’t automatically mean control; it can reflect a team that is happy to shoot from distance when the central lane is blocked — exactly the scenario a back five can produce.
In possession terms, there’s not a massive gulf. Hibs average 47.3% possession with an 80.6% pass success rate, while Aberdeen average 48.2% possession and 79.1% pass success. That suggests neither side is built around monopolising the ball; instead, they’re more likely to use it with purpose and accept periods without it.
The home and away context adds colour too. Hibernian’s last six Premiership home matches include four wins, and there have been over 2.5 goals scored in their last three home league games. That matters because it hints at a pattern: even with a back five, Hibs’ home matches have been producing action rather than stalemates.
And then there’s the table pressure, which always sneaks into decision-making. Hibs: 28 points, Aberdeen: 25. Fifth and sixth. You don’t need melodrama to understand why the first goal could change not just the tactics, but the temperament.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The space behind Hibernian’s wing-backs could be the match’s most valuable postcode. Hibs’ strength in wide attacking play suggests those wing-backs will want to step high, and their weakness defending wide attacks hints at what happens when the ball is turned over at the wrong time. Aberdeen’s through-ball tendencies give them a natural way to exploit that: win it, slip it, run.
The long-shot duel is another storyline that can feel minor until it isn’t. Aberdeen are strong at creating long shot opportunities and their style explicitly leans into taking long shots. Against a back five, those shots often come in clusters — blocked, recycled, shot again — and that can generate corners, rebounds, and the kind of frantic box scenes that change a match without a “big chance” ever being drawn up.
Set pieces may be the quiet decider. Hibernian are strong defending them, Aberdeen are weak defending them and weak at avoiding fouls in dangerous areas. If Aberdeen start giving away free-kicks in crossing zones, Hibs won’t need a long spell of possession to build pressure; they can manufacture it.
And keep an eye on the key end-product figures. Bowie has seven league goals with three assists, McGrath has six goals and three assists, and Boyle has five league goals. For Aberdeen, Karlsson has five league goals, Lazetic has four, and Aouchiche has three. These aren’t just names on a sheet: they’re the most likely players to make a good move mean something.
What could go wrong with this read? A match that looks set up for transitions can still become cagey if both midfields prioritise shape over risk. And when both teams carry a “weak” tag for avoiding individual errors, the decisive moment can arrive from a miscue rather than a tactical masterpiece.
Best Bet for Hibernian vs Aberdeen
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Both Teams to Score (Yes)
The tactical profiles and recent scoring trends of these two teams suggest a match where defensive clean sheets will be difficult to come by. Hibernian enter this fixture having averaged 1.63 goals per game this season, finding the net 31 times in their 19 Premiership fixtures. Their offensive efficiency is high, particularly at Easter Road where they have secured four wins in their last six home matches. This home form is further supported by an attacking style that utilizes 12.9 shots per game and a high conversion rate in finishing scoring chances. However, Hibernian’s defensive record remains a point of concern; they have a documented weakness in protecting leads and have struggled to keep opponents quiet when wing-backs push high to support their own wide attacks.
Aberdeen, meanwhile, are a remarkably consistent threat in the final third, having scored at least one goal in each of their last 12 league matches. Their offensive strategy leans heavily on volume, averaging 13.3 shots per match, and they are particularly adept at creating through-ball opportunities and long-shot openings. While the Dons are currently sixth in the table, their ability to remain competitive is evidenced by the fact they have avoided defeat in eight of their last nine Premiership games.
The head-to-head history reinforces the expectation for goals at both ends. In their previous meeting this season back in October, Hibernian secured a 2-1 victory at Pittodrie, and a previous encounter in late 2024 ended in a high-scoring 3-3 draw. Given that Aberdeen are weak at defending set pieces and prone to fouling in dangerous areas—combined with Hibernian’s vulnerability to counter-attacks down the wings—the conditions are ripe for both goalkeepers to be beaten at least once during the 90 minutes.
What could go wrong?
A stalemate could occur if both teams revert to a highly cautious “non-aggressive” stance to avoid losing ground in the race for European spots. If Hibernian’s back five successfully neutralizes Aberdeen’s central playmakers while their own wide outlets fail to provide quality service, the match could devolve into a tactical battle fought mostly in the middle third with few clear-cut openings.
Correct score lean: Hibernian 2-1 Aberdeen
A 2-1 victory for the home side aligns with both teams’ recent form and statistical tendencies. Hibernian have a strong track record at Easter Road lately and are coming off a morale-boosting 3-2 victory over league leaders Hearts. Aberdeen’s scoring streak of 12 consecutive games makes an away goal highly likely, but their defensive fragility—especially from set-piece situations and individual errors—gives the edge to the hosts. With Hibernian’s strength in finishing chances and Aberdeen’s history of conceding multiple goals in recent meetings (having lost three of the last five H2H encounters), a narrow home win fits the narrative of a competitive top-half clash.
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