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Can Algeria’s early fluency break Burkina Faso’s midfield grip at Stade Prince Moulay Hassan? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Algeria and Burkina Faso have a long-standing habit of trading goals, with both teams scoring in each of their last three head-to-head meetings. Algeria enters this match after a dominant three-goal performance against Sudan, while Burkina Faso displayed their own offensive threat by netting two late goals in their opener. Statistically, Burkina Faso's 16 shots per game show they are persistent in the final third, while Algeria’s 96.6% pass accuracy allows them to carve out high-quality chances. With both teams fighting for the top spot in Group E, an open exchange is expected.
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The 1-1 scoreline is the ultimate reflection of the historical trend between these nations, who have drawn their last three meetings. Both sides are currently in excellent form, each having won their opening group game, which creates a scenario where a point would be a mutually beneficial result for knockout stage qualification. Algeria's disciplined 4-2-3-1 structure often leads to balanced games, and given that Burkina Faso have seen both teams score in several of their recent outings, a competitive stalemate where they trade a single goal apiece is a highly probable outcome.
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Algeria vs Burkina Faso Predictions and Best Bets
Algeria vs Burkina Faso — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Algeria’s clinical start and higher technical ceiling give them the edge in the 1X2 market, despite the historical tendency for draws.
While history points to a 1–1 stalemate, Algeria’s individual quality often finds a way through in tight tournament matches.
Both sides showed scoring resilience in their openers, though Algeria’s defensive solidity remains a significant factor in the totals market.
- Mahrez arrives hot: two goals in Algeria’s opening Africa Cup of Nations match, with Algeria scoring three and conceding none, setting a high bar for Burkina Faso’s defensive structure.
- Burkina Faso’s early intent is clear: 66.8% possession and 16 shots per game in the tournament so far, numbers that point to sustained pressure rather than isolated counter-attacks.
- This match-up keeps finding stalemate: the last three Algeria vs Burkina Faso meetings all ended as draws, including 2-2 (January 2024) and 2-2 plus 1-1 (2021).
Attacking Intent: Opening Match Data
Burkina Faso’s high-volume shooting meets Algeria’s clinical efficiency in a clash that highlights two distinct offensive profiles.
Their persistence led to 2 goals and eventually overturned a late deficit, confirming a team that creates frequent entries.
Algeria converted their control into three unanswered goals, averaging a goal for every 18.4% of ball possession.
Technical Stability: Ball Retention
Precision in possession is Algeria’s hallmark, while Burkina Faso maintains a ball-dominant approach through territorial pressure.
This near-perfect distribution ensures Algeria can dictate the tempo and minimize dangerous turnovers.
Burkina Faso controlled over two-thirds of the ball in their first game, using possession to pin back the opposition.
Two teams with a perfect start in Group E meet with the same immediate aim: keep the momentum, keep the control, and put one foot in the knockout stages. Algeria and Burkina Faso arrive at Stade Prince Moulay Hassan having both opened their 2025 Africa Cup of Nations campaigns with wins, and the table already reflects that early authority: both sit on three points after one game, with Algeria top on goal difference.
There’s a familiar feel to this match-up, too. The last three meetings between these sides have all ended level, including a 2-2 draw at the Africa Cup of Nations in January 2024 and a pair of World Cup qualifiers in 2021 that finished 2-2 and 1-1. When two well-matched teams keep finding the same conclusion, it usually means neither can quite land the clean, decisive punch — and that the details, rather than the broad plan, are what decide the night.
Algeria’s opener was emphatic on the scoreboard, a 3-0 win over Sudan, and their individual performances reflected that sharpness: Riyad Mahrez struck twice, while Mohammed Amoura and Baghdad Bounedjah both registered assists. Burkina Faso’s start was narrower but no less valuable, beating Equatorial Guinea 2-1, with Edmond Tapsoba and Georgi Minoungou among the scorers in that match.
So this is the type of group game that suddenly feels like a mini-knockout: win it and you’re almost there; don’t, and you’re back in the scrum with work still to do. The fact these two tend to cancel each other out only adds to the intrigue.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Algeria’s possible XI points towards a 4-2-3-1: Luca Zidane in goal; Rafik Belghali, Aïssa Mandi, Ramy Bensebaini and Rayan Aït-Nouri across the back; Hicham Boudaoui and Ismaël Bennacer as the double pivot; Mahrez on one flank with Farès Chaïbi central and Amoura on the other, and Bounedjah leading the line.
That shape naturally suggests balance through the middle and freedom for the three behind the striker to rotate. With Boudaoui and Bennacer underneath, the side can keep two layers of protection in rest-defence while still releasing Mahrez and Amoura into attacking spaces. It also hints at a clear route for Algeria’s most in-form creator-finisher: give Mahrez a stable platform, let him receive high and wide or inside, and let the game funnel through him.
Burkina Faso’s most recent tournament set-up is a 4-3-3: Hervé Koffi in goal; Steeve Yago, Issoufou Dayo, Tapsoba and Arsène Kouassi in defence; a midfield three including Gustavo Sangaré, Blati Touré and Ismahila Ouédraogo; and a front line that has featured Bertrand Traoré and Dango Ouattara, with Pierre Landry Kaboré also appearing as part of that attacking unit.
That configuration leans into athletic coverage and wide threat. With three midfielders, Burkina Faso can crowd central lanes, protect the space in front of the centre-backs, and still spring quickly into the channels when possession turns over — especially if Ouattara is isolated 1v1 against a full-back or can attack the far post when the ball comes from the opposite wing.
How the Match Could Be Played
If the starting shapes hold, the key tension is obvious: Algeria’s 4-2-3-1 wants to create a “box” of control through the centre — two pivots behind a central creator — while Burkina Faso’s 4-3-3 wants to meet that with numbers and legs, then tilt the game towards the wide forwards.
In possession, Algeria’s double pivot should matter. With Boudaoui and Bennacer available as passing options, Algeria can recycle quickly and keep the tempo measured, inviting Burkina Faso’s midfield line to step out. The reward for Algeria is the space that appears between Burkina Faso’s midfield and defence when those steps are mistimed — the exact pockets where Chaïbi can receive and where Mahrez can drift inside to combine.
But Burkina Faso’s structure can make that messy. A three-man midfield gives you natural access to the half-spaces, which can limit clean touches for a No.10 and force the ball wide earlier than Algeria might prefer. If that happens, the match becomes more about wide duels: can Belghali and Aït-Nouri advance without leaving too much behind them, and can Burkina Faso’s wingers and full-backs turn those moments into direct attacks?
Transitions may decide more than long spells of sterile possession. Algeria’s attacking line in a 4-2-3-1 can be explosive, but it can also leave a gap if the ball is lost during a combination. Burkina Faso, with a 4-3-3, is built to counter into those gaps: win it, find the first forward pass, and let the wide runners do the rest. If Ouattara gets the chance to face goal early, Algeria’s centre-backs may be forced into uncomfortable lateral defending, which is where fouls, corners, and second balls start to pile up.
Equally, Burkina Faso will have to manage Mahrez. Whether he starts wide and comes in, or starts inside and bounces out, the danger is the same: if you let him receive facing forward, he can decide the next action before you’ve even set your feet. The likely answer is to trap him with a full-back plus a midfielder sliding across — but every extra body you commit there is one fewer body protecting the centre, and that’s where runners like Amoura can suddenly appear.
Set-piece themes sit quietly in the background, too, because both teams show meaningful aerial involvement in the tournament numbers provided. Burkina Faso’s defenders, in particular, have strong aerial outputs, and if Algeria’s attacks end in corners rather than clear chances, that may be a small tactical win for Burkina Faso.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Algeria’s opening tournament line is blunt and impressive: one Africa Cup of Nations match, three goals scored, none conceded, with 55.2% possession and a 96.6% pass percentage. That combination suggests two things at once: they were not merely direct and opportunistic, but able to keep the ball and play accurately when the game demanded control. For a 4-2-3-1, that’s exactly the statistical footprint you’d expect when the double pivot is functioning: stable possession, safe circulation, and enough quality in the front four to turn control into goals.
Burkina Faso’s numbers paint a different kind of authority: one tournament match, two goals scored and one conceded, but with 66.8% possession and 16 shots per game. That shot volume matters because it speaks to sustained pressure — not just one or two breaks, but repeated entries into dangerous areas. Even if Algeria are tidy on the ball, they are unlikely to simply dictate the rhythm if Burkina Faso can keep forcing sequences of defending.
Individual outputs also hint at how each side threatens. Mahrez has two goals in the tournament so far, from his one appearance, with a match rating of 8.37. Amoura recorded an assist and attempted three shots in that same match, while Bounedjah supplied an assist as well. For Burkina Faso, Dango Ouattara produced an assist, attempted four shots, and won three aerial duels in his tournament match, while Tapsoba scored and Dayo won six aerials — a reminder that Burkina Faso’s centre-backs can be more than just stoppers.
And then there’s the historical nudge: three straight draws in this head-to-head. It’s not a prediction, just a pattern — and patterns like that often come from teams whose strengths naturally meet each other at a stalemate point.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first “moment” is whether Algeria can free Mahrez early, or whether Burkina Faso can turn his zone into a crowd. If Mahrez is receiving in isolation, you’ll likely see Algeria’s attacks sharpen quickly. If he’s receiving with his back to goal, or being forced to play into traffic, Algeria may have to find alternative routes — possibly through quicker switches towards Amoura or by asking the full-backs to push higher and stretch the pitch.
The second “moment” is the transition on Algeria’s left side. Aït-Nouri’s positioning will be crucial: step high to pin Burkina Faso back and you gain territory; step high at the wrong time and you may hand Burkina Faso the channel for a direct run. In matches between structured sides, one mistimed advance is often all it takes to flip the momentum for ten chaotic minutes.
The third “moment” is what happens after Burkina Faso’s pressure produces shots and set pieces. Their tournament profile includes high possession and shot volume, and their defenders show real aerial involvement. If those phases lead to scrappy second balls in the box, the match can tilt on a single loose clearance rather than a perfectly worked move.
What could go wrong with this read? Plenty. One early goal can dissolve the careful midfield battle and force a team into a more open, emotional game. A single defensive error can make the rest of the night look “obvious” in hindsight. And when two sides have drawn three straight head-to-heads, it’s a reminder that fine margins — a rebound, a deflection, a split-second decision — can trump the neatest tactical plan.
Best Bet for Algeria vs Burkina Faso
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Both Teams to Score – Yes
Recent history between these two West and North African heavyweights suggests that neither side is particularly adept at keeping a clean sheet when they meet. In fact, four of the last five encounters between Algeria and Burkina Faso have seen both teams find the back of the net. This includes high-scoring results such as a 2-2 draw in the most recent Africa Cup of Nations and another 2-2 in World Cup qualifying. When they face one another, the tactical setups tend to prioritize offensive transitions, leading to frequent goalmouth action at both ends of the pitch.
The current form of both attacks further supports this direction. Algeria opened their campaign with a clinical 3-0 victory over Sudan, where Riyad Mahrez showcased his enduring quality by scoring twice. With Baghdad Bounedjah and Mohammed Amoura also registering assists, the Algerian front line is clearly operating with high efficiency. Conversely, Burkina Faso proved in their first match that they are never truly out of a game. Despite trailing late against Equatorial Guinea, they managed to strike twice in stoppage time. Their high volume of 16 shots per game indicates they are capable of creating sustained pressure, even against organized defenses like Algeria’s.
Tactically, the matchup between Algeria’s 4-2-3-1 and Burkina Faso’s 4-3-3 creates natural openings. While Algeria seeks to control the tempo through Ismaël Bennacer, Burkina Faso’s pace in wide areas—exemplified by Dango Ouattara—is designed to exploit the spaces left by advancing full-backs. Given that both teams are currently tied at the top of Group E on three points, the drive to secure early qualification will likely discourage a purely defensive approach, making a repeat of their historically productive scoring pattern a strong probability.
What could go wrong?
The primary threat to this selection is a overly cautious midfield battle. Since both teams have already secured three points, a draw would keep both in a very strong position to qualify. If the match settles into a rhythm where neither side wants to risk losing their defensive shape, we could see a repeat of the 0-0 half-time scorelines that often characterize high-stakes tournament games. Additionally, if Algeria’s double pivot successfully neutralizes Burkina Faso’s transitions, the match could potentially stay as a low-scoring affair.
Correct score lean: 1-1
A 1-1 draw is the most logical conclusion for two sides that have become specialists in canceling each other out. The last three matches between these teams have ended in draws, and they currently sit side-by-side in the group standings. Algeria possess the individual brilliance of Mahrez to find a breakthrough, while Burkina Faso have shown the resilience to respond, as seen in their dramatic opening-day comeback. A single goal for each side reflects both the offensive talent available and the likely competitive parity that has defined this specific rivalry over the last few years.
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