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Will Başakşehir’s home frustration give way, or can Gaziantep’s away edge swing this mid-table clash? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Gaziantep are one of the most high-event teams in the league, with 69% of their matches seeing over 2.5 goals and a defensive record that has seen them concede 25 times in 16 games. They average 1.44 goals scored per match but allow 1.56, creating frequent opportunities for both sides. İstanbul Başakşehir boast the league's top scorer in Eldor Shomurodov (11 goals) and score on average every 65 minutes. Given both teams' balanced possession stats (55% vs 54%), this duel is likely to feature sustained attacking phases for both teams.
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This scoreline aligns with Başakşehir’s scoring rate and Gaziantep’s porous defense, which concedes over 1.5 goals per match on average. Başakşehir’s underlying xG for of 1.70 per game suggests they have the creative tools to exploit a Gaziantep backline that has a clean sheet rate of only 25%. However, Gaziantep’s counter-attacking front three remains efficient, and with top scorer Bayo leading the line, they are well-placed to find the net at least once, as they have done in the majority of their fixtures this season.
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Istanbul Basaksehir vs Gaziantep Predictions and Best Bets
Istanbul Basaksehir vs Gaziantep — William Hill Market Snapshot
Key market probabilities and sample William Hill odds based on current league standings and form.
Basaksehir are favoured at home, though the close gap in the table suggests a competitive match in the 1X2 market.
Gaziantep’s volatile defensive record and high-scoring trends point toward a high probability of both sides finding the net.
- Cagliari have 14 points from 15 matches (15th), four more than Pisa’s 10 (19th), and that gap frames a survival six-pointer where game state could shape risk-taking.
- Pisa have drawn seven of 15 league matches and failed to score in 60% overall, a combination that explains why they’ve struggled to turn tight games into points.
- Shot volume is similar but accuracy isn’t: Cagliari average 9.6 shots and 3.40 on target per match, while Pisa average 9.73 shots but just 2.27 on target.
Match Openness: Total Goals per Game
Gaziantep matches have been significantly higher scoring than Basaksehir’s, indicating a team that trades chances more frequently.
Matches involving the home side tend to follow a more controlled rhythm with fewer defensive lapses.
Gaziantep games average three goals per match, highlighting a trend toward open, attacking football.
Scoring Patterns: Over 2.5 Goals Frequency
Gaziantep’s league campaign has been defined by high-scoring outcomes, occurring in over two-thirds of their fixtures.
With 11 out of 16 matches hitting the over 2.5 mark, the visitors rarely feature in cagey affairs.
The home side maintains a steady scoring rate, finding the net on average every 65 minutes of play.
Will Cagliari’s home edge and extra cutting edge be enough to blunt Pisa’s draw-heavy resilience?
Istanbul Başakşehir and Gaziantep don’t need much imagination to sell this one. Mid-table neighbours, little between them, and a final push before the winter phase of the season starts to freeze opinions into something more permanent. They meet on Monday, December 22, 2025 at the Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadium, with both sides looking to give their league position a nudge in the right direction.
The table offers an immediate hook. Gaziantep sit eighth with 23 points from 16 matches, while İstanbul Başakşehir are ninth with 20 points from 16. It’s not a six-pointer in the dramatic, end-of-season sense, but it is the sort of game that can swing how the next few weeks feel: win it and the narrative becomes “climbing”; lose it and you’re back to glancing over your shoulder at the traffic jam behind you.
What makes it particularly intriguing is that the two teams arrive with very different statistical fingerprints. Başakşehir have a modest goals-for and a relatively tight goals-against; Gaziantep’s matches, by contrast, have tended to run hotter, with more goals at both ends and a much looser defensive record. In other words, this could become a duel between control and chaos — or at least, between a side that wants cleaner margins and one that’s lived on wider ones.
The probable line-ups suggest plenty of attacking intent from both. There are enough forwards on the pitch to make the game interesting. The question is whether that interest comes from slick, controlled patterns… or from the kind of messy transitions that make managers age five years in a single half.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
İstanbul Başakşehir’s possible starting lineup is listed as: Şengezer; Bulut, Opoku, Duarte, Sahiner; Kaluzinski, Gunes, Harit, Fayzullaev; Da Costa, Shomurodov.
That reads like a back four, a three-man midfield, and then a front pair. The midfield names are important here because it suggests Başakşehir want both control and craft: Kaluzinski and Gunes can provide legs and structure, while Harit gives you the player who can knit attacks together and find the final pass. Fayzullaev’s presence in the attacking line hints at a role between midfield and forward areas — someone who can either receive between lines or drift wide to create angles.
Up top, the likely pairing of Da Costa and Shomurodov gives Başakşehir two reference points rather than one. That can mean more direct options in build-up — the ability to play into feet, go longer if needed, and attack second balls with numbers arriving underneath.
Gaziantep’s possible starting lineup is: Gorgen; Perez, Guler, Kilzidag, Rodrigues; Ozciceck, Camara, Kozlowski; Sorescu, Boateng, Bayo.
That looks more like a 4-3-3: a back four, three central midfielders, then a front three led by Bayo with Sorescu and Boateng either side. In theory, that front line gives Gaziantep natural width and direct running, while Kozlowski in midfield offers the link into attacking areas. With Ozciceck and Camara also listed in that midfield unit, Gaziantep can choose to keep it compact centrally, then spring wide once the first pass sticks.
In terms of weak spots and balance, the line-ups hint at a classic tension. Başakşehir’s two forwards can pin centre-backs and keep attacks in the final third, but it can also leave midfield spaces if the press is bypassed. Gaziantep’s front three can threaten quickly in transition, but that shape can ask a lot of the wide players if they’re forced to defend deep for long spells.
How the Match Could Be Played
The first thing to watch is tempo — and who controls it. Başakşehir’s listed XI looks built to steady games down when they need to. A back four in front of Şengezer, three midfielders who can circulate, and then Harit as the creative hinge gives them the tools to construct attacks rather than rely on moments.
In possession, the most likely route is through Harit, with Kaluzinski and Gunes providing the platform for him to receive in better pockets. If Başakşehir can consistently find Harit facing forward, that’s when the game opens: he can slide passes into Da Costa and Shomurodov early, or shift the ball wide to invite Bulut and Sahiner into advanced areas. Fayzullaev is the wild card in that structure — the player who can arrive late, drift into half-spaces, or occupy a defender just long enough to create a gap for the forwards.
Out of possession, Başakşehir’s best press probably comes from their front two. With Da Costa and Shomurodov able to press centre-backs, the cue becomes obvious: force the ball wide, then jump on the next pass with Harit stepping up and the midfield shuffling behind him. But there’s a trade-off. If that first wave is beaten, Gaziantep’s three-man front line suddenly becomes very relevant.
Gaziantep, with Sorescu, Boateng and Bayo, look well set up to play the “first two passes” of transition football. Win it, find Kozlowski or one of the wide forwards early, then get Bayo running at the heart of the defence. Their shape also suggests they can play with a slightly more vertical edge even when they have sustained possession: push wide, cross early, or attack the space behind a full-back if he’s been tempted forward.
The midfield battle could decide whether this becomes a controlled chess match or a looser contest. Gaziantep’s trio of Ozciceck, Camara and Kozlowski will want to stop Harit receiving too cleanly between lines. If they can block those central lanes, Başakşehir may end up circulating around the outside, trying to work openings through wide areas rather than through the middle. That can still be effective, but it can also slow a side down — and slowing down against a team comfortable in transitions can be risky.
The reverse is also true. If Başakşehir can pin Gaziantep back with sustained pressure, it tests the defensive discipline of the away side’s shape. In a 4-3-3, the wide forwards often decide whether the team defends high or low. If Sorescu and Boateng end up tracking deep all night, Gaziantep can become stretched: the front line loses its counter threat, and Bayo can end up isolated.
There’s also a subtle game-state storyline hinted at in the home/away splits. Başakşehir’s home form has included a lot of draws, while Gaziantep’s away results have been relatively strong. If the match stays level for long periods, it may suit Gaziantep’s “stay in it, then strike” profile — but only if they can keep the structure intact without inviting wave after wave.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Start with the table: Gaziantep are eighth with 23 points from 16 matches, while İstanbul Başakşehir are ninth with 20 from 16. That three-point gap explains why this feels like a direct mid-table nudge rather than a game with one team clearly above the other.
Başakşehir’s season totals show a side that’s been slightly on the positive side of goal difference: 22 scored, 17 conceded, +5. Their match goals average is listed as 2.44, which suggests their games have been reasonably open without turning into constant shootouts. Their scoring rate of 1.38 goals per match tells you they aren’t flooding opponents, but they’re usually finding a way onto the scoresheet, helped by the fact they score a goal every 65 minutes.
The attacking output also has a clear focal point. Shomurodov has 11 goals and leads their scorers by a distance, which matters because it shapes how they might attack: if you’ve got one player producing that much of the end product, it makes sense that Da Costa’s role in the likely XI could involve bringing him into play, occupying defenders, and creating the conditions for him to finish.
Gaziantep’s numbers paint a different picture. They’ve scored 23 and conceded 25, for a -2 goal difference, and their match goals average is listed as 3.00. That’s the profile of a team whose matches swing. They score 1.44 per match, but concede 1.56 per match, which is why their defensive record is described as poor. Crucially, their “over 2.5” percentage is 69% across 16 matches — 11 of 16 going over that mark — which supports the idea that games involving Gaziantep can open up quickly if either side starts trading chances.
Bayo’s role is similarly obvious in the numbers. He has 6 goals and is their top scorer. With Sorescu and Boateng either side, Gaziantep’s likely front line is set up to support that central threat — wide runners, a focal striker, and a midfield that includes Kozlowski, who has also chipped in with 3 goals.
One extra detail that matters tactically: Başakşehir’s possession average is 55%, while Gaziantep’s is 54%. That’s close enough to suggest neither side is naturally resigned to being without the ball. So rather than a clear “dominators vs sit-deep” script, it could become a tug-of-war for the middle third — with the outcome shaped by who protects transitions better once attacks break down.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first moment is the Shomurodov question: can Başakşehir feed him the kind of chances that match his output so far? With 11 goals, he’s been their main source of finishing. If Harit can repeatedly receive in good zones and slide passes into the front two, Başakşehir can keep Gaziantep’s back line under stress. If Harit is crowded out, Başakşehir may have to find another route — probably through wider build-up and earlier deliveries into the box.
The second is how Gaziantep handle defensive discipline when the game isn’t going their way. Conceding 25 goals in 16 matches suggests they can be opened up, and their clean sheet percentage sits at 25%. If Başakşehir can lock them in and keep attacks coming, the away side’s shape will be tested: do the wide forwards track, do the midfielders cover the spaces in front of the back four, and can they avoid giving up the kind of second-phase chances that turn a steady match into a scramble?
Third, watch for the transition punch from Gaziantep’s front three. With Sorescu, Boateng and Bayo, they have the sort of line that can turn one loose pass into a shot within seconds. Başakşehir’s midfield balance becomes key here: Kaluzinski and Gunes can’t just help build; they have to manage the moments when the move breaks down and Gaziantep start running.
What could go wrong with this read? Plenty. A match that looks set up for controlled phases can turn into a track meet with one sloppy pass. A quick goal can flip the entire approach of both teams. And when two sides sit close in the table, the margin between “good plan” and “bad day at the office” can be a single duel lost in the wrong area.
Best Bet for İstanbul Başakşehir vs Gaziantep
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Both Teams to Score – Yes
This fixture presents a compelling case for goals at both ends, primarily driven by the defensive and offensive profiles of the two sides. Gaziantep enter this match as one of the most volatile teams in the Turkish Süper Lig, characterized by a high-event style that frequently results in action at both ends of the pitch. Across 16 league matches, Gaziantep have seen 69% of their games exceed the 2.5-goal threshold, illustrating a consistent trend toward high-scoring outcomes. Their defensive record is a major contributing factor; they have conceded 25 goals in just 16 games, resulting in an average of 1.56 goals allowed per match. With a clean sheet percentage of only 25%, they have struggled to keep opponents quiet, especially on the road.
İstanbul Başakşehir, while generally more controlled, have shown a reliable ability to find the scoresheet, particularly through the prolific form of Eldor Shomurodov. Shomurodov has netted 11 league goals this season, and as the team’s focal point, he leads a strike force that has contributed to a team scoring average of 1.38 goals per match. Başakşehir find the net roughly every 65 minutes, and their possession average of 55% suggests they will have the territory to create numerous high-quality opportunities against a Gaziantep defense that allows 1.52 expected goals (xG) against per game.
Conversely, Gaziantep’s front three of Sorescu, Boateng, and top scorer Bayo (6 goals) are tailor-made for transition football. Despite their defensive flaws, Gaziantep average 1.44 goals scored per match. Başakşehir’s tendency to hold a high line with 55% possession often leaves them susceptible to the exact type of vertical counter-attacking threat Gaziantep possesses. Given that both teams are separated by just three points and carry nearly identical possession stats, neither is likely to sit back, creating a tactical environment where chances—and goals—for both sides are highly probable.
What could go wrong The primary risk to this selection is a shift toward a more conservative, “chess match” style of play, which can occur when two mid-table neighbors are wary of losing ground to each other. If Başakşehir’s midfield duo of Kaluzinski and Gunes prioritizes defensive structure over supporting Harit in the final third, the game’s tempo could slow significantly. Additionally, if Shomurodov or Bayo have an uncharacteristically wasteful night in front of goal, the statistical likelihood of both teams scoring could be undermined by poor execution despite high chance creation.
Correct score lean
2-1 İstanbul Başakşehir Win
A 2-1 victory for the home side is the most justified scoreline when weighing Başakşehir’s home advantage against Gaziantep’s defensive frailties. Gaziantep’s average of 3.00 total goals per match and their high rate of conceding (1.56 per game) suggest they are likely to allow multiple goals to a side led by the division’s most dangerous striker, Eldor Shomurodov. However, Gaziantep’s proficiency in scoring (1.44 goals per game) and their strong away performances this season indicate they should have enough quality to breach a Başakşehir defense that has kept relatively few clean sheets against top-half opposition. Başakşehir’s superior xG for (1.70) compared to Gaziantep’s xG against (1.52) supports the hosts netting twice, while the narrow point gap between the two suggests a competitive, single-goal margin.
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