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Faced with their final chance to take a league win into the Christmas break, Fiorentina return to Serie A action on Sunday evening under a weight that grows heavier by the week. Fifteen matches have passed without victory, and the table offers little comfort: the Viola are rooted to the foot of the division, six points gathered from a season that has so far refused to turn in their favour. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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This selection is based on the overwhelming attacking evidence from both clubs and their historical trends in this competition. Barcelona are currently scoring at a rate of 2.74 goals per game and have managed nine consecutive wins where they scored two or more goals. Real Madrid average over two goals per game and possess elite individual finishers like Kylian Mbappé and Vinícius Júnior. Defensively, both sides are weak against through-ball attacks and chance creation, which has led to high-scoring totals in recent meetings, including 16 goals across the last three Super Cup finals.
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A 2-2 draw in regular time aligns with the tactical symmetry between these two rivals. Barcelona’s high possession and shot volume make multiple goals likely, yet their extreme vulnerability to counter-attacks—a primary strength of Real Madrid—suggests they will struggle to maintain a lead. Real Madrid have shown consistent scoring ability but are also weak at stopping opponents from creating chances. With both teams finding the net frequently in recent months and the pressure of a final often leading to defensive lapses, a high-scoring deadlock is a plausible outcome for the 90-minute market.
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Fiorentina vs Udinese Predictions and Best Bets
Fiorentina vs Udinese — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample William Hill odds based on our match analysis.
Exchange prices suggest a relatively balanced contest, but Napoli’s home strength still gives them a slight edge over Juventus and the draw in the 1X2 market.
Pricing points towards a cagey clash where single-goal margins and the 1–1 stalemate are the most realistic outcomes at the Maradona.
Markets lean slightly towards a lower-scoring contest, but there remains a realistic chance of both sides contributing in a tight tactical battle.
Moise Kean and Albert Gudmundsson lead Fiorentina’s scoring output, while Keinan Davis and Nicolò Zaniolo carry Udinese’s main goal threat.
- Fiorentina have taken 12.2 shots per match across the season but convert only 7% of them, a gap that explains why possession and territory have not translated into wins.
- Udinese score in 80% of their league matches and fail to score only three times in 15 games, highlighting a steadier attacking baseline than Fiorentina’s.
- Fiorentina concede a goal every 52 minutes on average in Serie A, a defensive rate that leaves little room for error in tight, low-margin matches.
Match Tempo: Average Goals per League Game
Both sides land on the same match-goals average across the season, hinting at games that can swing between control and chaos depending on who scores first.
Fiorentina’s matches average 2.53 goals, but their balance is skewed by 12 scored and 26 conceded across 15 league games.
Udinese also sit at 2.53 goals per game, built from 16 for and 22 against, which keeps their matches competitive rather than runaway.
Attacking Efficiency: Shots, Accuracy and Conversion
Shot volume is similar, but the on-target numbers and conversion rates show a difference in how cleanly each side turn pressure into actual threat.
Fiorentina fire 12.2 shots per game, but only 2.73 hit the target on average and the conversion rate sits at 7%, matching their 0.8 goals per match.
Udinese average 12.93 shots and 4.00 on target per game, with an 8% conversion rate that supports their 1.07 goals per match across the season.
Defensive Stability: Clean Sheets and Goals Conceded
Clean sheets and concession rates give a simple view of how often each side keep control of their penalty box across a long league run.
Fiorentina concede 1.73 per game and have kept clean sheets in 13% of matches, which helps explain why their first league win is still missing.
Udinese allow 1.47 goals per match and post a 27% clean-sheet rate, a steadier baseline that has helped them collect 21 points from 15 games.
Can Fiorentina finally turn pressure into progress against steady Udinese?
The visitors, Udinese, arrive from a very different place emotionally and structurally. Sitting 10th after 15 rounds, they have already accumulated 21 points and recently recorded a win over the reigning champions. That contrast alone frames the evening. One side searching for something—anything—to cling to. The other arriving with evidence that their approach can still unsettle top-level opposition.
The raw numbers underline the strain Fiorentina are under. Twelve goals scored, 26 conceded, and an average of just 0.40 points per game leaves them with little margin for error. Home form has offered no real refuge either: seven matches played, no wins, and only two draws to show for it. Sunday therefore feels less like a routine fixture and more like a test of nerve, belief and basic execution.
Udinese’s position is steadier rather than spectacular. Six wins, three draws and six defeats point to balance rather than brilliance, and their goal difference of minus six reflects a side that are rarely dominant but often competitive. They score just over a goal per match, concede slightly more, and tend to keep games within reach. Against a Fiorentina side desperate for momentum, that balance may prove either stabilising or provocative.
What gives this meeting added intrigue is that it is not framed by unfamiliarity. The sides met earlier in the campaign, and Fiorentina’s recent fixture list shows Udinese looming again at this stage of the season. The question is whether familiarity breeds comfort or tension. For Fiorentina, Sunday evening is another attempt to reset a campaign that has stalled badly. For Udinese, it is a chance to underline why mid-table stability has come their way.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Fiorentina’s possible starting lineup suggests a back three in front of David de Gea, with Marin Pongracic, Pablo Marí and Luca Ranieri likely to form the defensive line. Wing-back roles appear set for Dodô on the right and Fabiano Parisi on the left, placing responsibility on them to provide width and recovery runs. In central midfield, Rolando Mandragora, Nicolò Fagioli and Simon Sohm point towards a trio asked to combine ball circulation with defensive cover. Up front, Albert Gudmundsson and Moise Kean look set to operate as a pairing.
That structure hints at balance rather than adventure. A back three offers numerical security, but it also places a heavy burden on the wing-backs to stretch the pitch. Gudmundsson’s role becomes particularly important here. As Fiorentina’s joint-leading assist provider and one of their more reliable contributors in the final third, his ability to drop between lines or drift wide could be key to linking midfield to attack. Kean, meanwhile, remains one of the main goal threats, though his output of two goals reflects the broader attacking struggles of the side.
Udinese’s possible lineup mirrors that shape closely. Maduka Okoye is listed in goal, with Thomas Kristensen, Christian Kabasele and Oumar Solet forming a three-man defence. The midfield five includes Alessandro Zanoli and Nicolò Bertola on the flanks, with Jesper Karlström, Jakub Piotrowski and Ekkelenkamp central. Ahead of them, Nicolò Zaniolo partners Keinan Davis.
That pairing immediately stands out. Davis and Zaniolo are Udinese’s joint top scorers with four goals each, and both feature prominently in their assist numbers too. With that in mind, Udinese’s shape looks built to absorb pressure before releasing runners quickly into advanced areas, trusting the front two to convert moments rather than dominate possession.
How the Match Could Be Played
With both sides appearing set up in broadly similar systems, the match is likely to hinge on details rather than dramatic structural mismatches. The central zones could become congested early, particularly if both midfields sit compactly in front of their respective back threes. In that scenario, width becomes the release valve.
For Fiorentina, that means Dodô and Parisi. Their ability to push high without leaving space behind will shape the rhythm of the game. Fiorentina average 52% possession across the season, suggesting they are comfortable having the ball, but comfort has not translated into penetration. Their shot volume—12.2 per match—shows that they can generate attempts, yet the conversion rate of just 7% explains why those phases of possession so often fade without reward.
Udinese’s possession average of 47% points to a side happier to let the game come to them. Their approach is more direct, particularly away from home, where they average 1.14 goals scored per match. With Zaniolo and Davis ahead of the ball, Udinese can afford to play forward early in transitions, trusting their forwards to hold play or attack space.
Pressing is likely to be selective rather than relentless. Fiorentina commit an average of 13.67 fouls per match, while Udinese average 14.13, suggesting contests in midfield that break rhythm rather than build momentum. Free-kicks and restarts could therefore play a significant role in territory and tempo, especially given Fiorentina are awarded an average of 17.33 free-kicks per game.
Where Fiorentina may look to impose themselves is in sustained second-half pressure. Their own split numbers show they score more after the break than before it, averaging 0.53 goals in the second half compared to 0.27 in the first. Udinese, by contrast, concede slightly more after half-time than before. That dynamic hints at a game that could gradually tilt towards the hosts if they can stay in contention early on.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Fiorentina’s league position is the most obvious marker of their difficulties: 20th place, zero wins, and six draws from 15 matches. That record matters because it shapes behaviour. A side that has not won tends to play with caution early, particularly at home, where the fear of conceding first can be paralysing.
Their scoring record underlines the challenge. Fiorentina average 0.8 goals per match and score once every 113 minutes on average. Despite creating chances worth an expected goals figure of 1.23 per match, finishing has lagged behind. That gap between chance quality and output suggests inefficiency rather than complete absence of opportunity.
Udinese’s numbers paint a steadier picture. They score 1.07 goals per match, concede 1.47, and average 2.53 total goals in their games—the same match-goal average as Fiorentina. What differs is distribution. Udinese fail to score in only 20% of matches, compared to Fiorentina’s 33%, which speaks to reliability rather than explosiveness.
Shot data reinforces that idea. Udinese average 12.93 shots per match with 4.00 on target, a higher accuracy than Fiorentina’s 2.73 shots on target from a similar volume. Over time, that difference in precision adds up, particularly in tight matches decided by one or two moments.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The opening phase feels crucial. Fiorentina draw 80% of their matches in the first 10 minutes, with goals in that window remaining relatively rare. If they can settle into the game without conceding early, the crowd and the players alike may grow into the contest rather than shrink from it.
Another key moment lies in transitions. Udinese score a goal every 84 minutes on average, faster than Fiorentina’s rate, and much of that threat comes from quick forward play rather than sustained pressure. How Fiorentina’s back three handle Zaniolo’s movement and Davis’s physical presence could decide whether those transitions become genuine chances.
Discipline is another factor. Fiorentina’s most frequently booked players include Pongracic and Ranieri, while Udinese have several players on three cards. In a game likely to be broken by fouls, avoiding cheap bookings could preserve defensive options later on.
What could go wrong with this read? Quite a lot. Matches involving sides under pressure often ignore logic. An early goal can flip structure and psychology instantly, and Fiorentina’s habit of conceding—1.73 goals per match—means even controlled phases can unravel quickly. Equally, Udinese’s balance can tip into passivity if they retreat too deep. Fine margins, as ever, will rule.
Best Bet for Fiorentina vs Udinese
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Udinese Double Chance (Win or Draw)
Rationale
Selecting Udinese to avoid defeat at the Artemio Franchi is the most logical conclusion based on the overwhelming weight of evidence from the current campaign. Fiorentina enters this match in a state of historic crisis; they are winless after 15 rounds of Serie A action, rooted to the bottom of the table with a meager six points. Their home form has provided no sanctuary, as they have failed to secure a single victory in front of their own fans across seven attempts, yielding only two draws. With an average of just 0.40 points per game and a scoring efficiency of only 7%, the hosts are essentially operating without any competitive momentum.
Conversely, Udinese arrives in a significantly more stable position. Currently 10th in the standings, they have already amassed 21 points—more than triple Fiorentina’s total. Their psychological state is further bolstered by a sensational 1-0 victory over the reigning champions in their previous outing, proving they possess the tactical discipline to shut down top-tier opposition. Statistically, Udinese is more reliable in the final third, failing to score in only 20% of their matches compared to Fiorentina’s 33%. Their away scoring average of 1.14 goals per game suggests they have the tools to exploit a Fiorentina defense that concedes 1.73 goals per match and has yet to keep a clean sheet at home this season.
Furthermore, recent historical data reinforces this pick. Udinese won the corresponding fixture at the Artemio Franchi last December and has secured results in two of their last three meetings overall. Given that Fiorentina has trailed at half-time in a league-high eight games this season, the visitors are likely to find early opportunities to manage the tempo and preserve at least a draw against a side paralyzed by the fear of relegation.
What could go wrong
The primary risk to this selection is the “law of averages” in a desperate relegation battle. Fiorentina averages over 52% possession and generates a respectable 12.2 shots per match; if their conversion rate finally aligns with their expected goals ($xG$) of 1.23, they could surprise a mid-table side. Additionally, an early goal for the hosts could shift the psychological burden onto Udinese, who have shown occasional inconsistency with an even split of six wins and six losses.
Correct score lean
1-2
Rationale
A 2-1 victory for Udinese aligns with both the statistical trends and the specific defensive vulnerabilities of the hosts. Fiorentina concedes an average of 1.73 goals per game and has a persistent habit of failing to keep clean sheets at home. Udinese, led by the clinical duo of Keinan Davis and Nicolo Zaniolo—who have both netted four goals this season—possess the counter-attacking precision to capitalize on the gaps left by a desperate Fiorentina side pushing for their first win. Given that Udinese scores just over one goal per match while Fiorentina averages 0.8, a narrow away win is the most probable outcome.
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