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La Liga outfits Deportivo Alavés and Sevilla FC go head-to-head at Estadio Mendizorrotza on Wednesday night, with a place in the last 16 of the 2025–26 Copa del Rey on the line. Both clubs dealt with lower-league opposition in the previous round — Alavés made light work of Portugalete, while Sevilla narrowly saw off CD Extremadura — and now the margin for error tightens fast. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Alavés’ possible XI suggests two forwards and a clear structure, which can make this cup tie awkward for Sevilla’s deeper-looking setup. Sevilla’s games have been volatile, with high Over 2.5 and BTTS rates, and they concede 1.50 goals per league match — signs that defensive control isn’t always clean. Alavés’ 1.06 conceded-per-match profile points to them staying competitive for long spells, especially at Mendizorrotza. Draw No Bet keeps the lean towards the home side while offering protection if it settles into a stalemate.
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This lean matches Alavés’ season pattern: 1–0 is their most frequent full-time scoreline (five times), and their games run at a lower overall goal tempo with 1.94 average match goals. A narrow Alavés win also fits a scenario where their two-forward setup creates enough pressure for one breakthrough while their defensive baseline (1.06 conceded per match) helps them protect a lead. It’s a higher-variance call by nature, so it’s best treated as a speculative angle rather than a “must” bet.
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Alaves vs Sevilla Predictions and Best Bets
Alaves vs Sevilla — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key angles with implied probabilities and example odds shown in fractional format.
The 1X2 market is fairly compact, with no runaway favourite. Percentages shown are implied from the odds displayed.
These are a handful of listed correct scores with implied probabilities calculated directly from the odds shown.
A quick look at headline goals lines and BTTS, with implied percentages calculated directly from the odds shown.
A few lower-variance market options, shown with implied percentages calculated from the odds displayed.
- Alavés’ league matches average 1.94 total goals, a measure of combined scoring in their games, which points to tighter scorelines and matters in a cup tie where keeping Sevilla’s attacking depth quiet is half the job.
- Sevilla have seen Over 2.5 goals in 69% of league games and BTTS in 63%, which signals volatility; that matters because a chaotic match can swing on a single mistake or set-piece moment.
- Alavés concede just 1.06 goals per league match (average goals allowed), suggesting they’re usually competitive; that matters because staying level deep into the game keeps pressure on Sevilla and the crowd engaged.
Match Tempo: Average Total Goals per League Game
One side’s league matches have tended to stay tight, while the other has played in higher-scoring contests — a simple snapshot of how open this cup tie could feel.
This reflects a team whose games often swing on small moments rather than end-to-end chaos.
Their league pattern has produced more goals at both ends, which can drag opponents into messy game states.
Defensive Stability: Clean Sheets So Far
Clean sheets show how often a defence completely shuts the door — useful context when a knockout tie tightens up late.
That’s a reminder they can keep games on a tightrope — especially if the match stays level and the crowd sense a chance.
Sevilla have managed a few full shutouts, but their overall goals-against rate suggests the defensive picture isn’t always calm.
Attacking Output: Goals Scored per League Match
A quick view of how much each side has produced on the scoreboard across league play — helpful for judging whether this tie could be decided by one goal or two.
Their league scoring rate suggests they often need repeat pressure and patience, rather than expecting a flurry of chances to land early.
Sevilla’s scoring rate points to more regular threat — the kind that can decide a cup tie even if the flow isn’t perfect for long stretches.
Can Alavés turn Mendizorrotza into a Copa del Rey trap for Sevilla?
In league terms, it’s ninth versus 13th right now. Sevilla sit 9th after 16 matches with 24 goals scored and 24 conceded, while Alavés are 13th having scored 14 and conceded 17. That gap shapes expectations, but the underlying profile of each side hints at why this might not be a straightforward “bigger club rolls on” kind of night. Alavés’ matches are often tighter by default — their average match goals is 1.94, which simply means their games tend to finish with fewer total goals on the board. Sevilla, by contrast, have been living louder: 3.00 average match goals, the kind of number that screams “something always happens”.
There’s also a recent touchpoint between the sides: Alavés 1–2 Sevilla on September 20. It doesn’t settle anything on its own — cup football has a habit of changing the script — but it’s a reminder that Sevilla have already found a way through this opponent once in this season’s rhythm.
The shape of this tie, then, likely comes down to game state. Can Alavés keep it in the trenches long enough for the crowd to believe? Can Sevilla manage the moment without gifting transitions and set-piece pressure? And if it becomes a one-goal game late, whose bench and composure holds?
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Why we Publish Only One Tip
At BettingTips4You we stick to one primary selection because it forces clarity. One angle. One argument. One set of reasons that either stand up to the match or don’t. Football is messy and variance is real, so the goal isn’t to pretend certainty exists — it’s to take a disciplined view of what the evidence most strongly supports, and live with the outcome.
Best Bet for Alaves vs Sevilla
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Alavés — Draw No Bet
Rationale
The team news shapes the first read here. Alavés’ possible XI — Sivera; Yusi, Pacheco, Tenaglia, Jonny; Vicente, Blanco, Suarez, Alena; Martinez, Boye — looks like a straightforward back four with two forwards on the pitch. Two strikers changes the feel of a cup tie. It gives you a way to press in pairs, threaten the channels, and turn clearances into second balls rather than immediate waves coming back at your defence. If Toni Martínez and Lucas Boyé are both up there, Sevilla’s centre-backs don’t get to mark space and admire the floodlights; they have to defend duels and manage runners. That matters because it’s often how underdogs make the game uncomfortable without needing to dominate the ball.
Sevilla’s possible lineup — Vlachodimos; Oso, Castrin, Gudelj, Cardoso, Carmona; Peque, Mendy, Agoume, Sow; Romero — reads more conservative on paper, with one recognised forward in Romero and a heavier-looking defensive unit behind him. In a cup away day, that can be sensible: stabilise, manage the tempo, and wait for the quality moments. But it also invites a specific type of match: Alavés shoving play into wide areas, forcing crosses, and asking questions of decision-making under pressure. Players like Carlos Vicente and Carles Aleñá in that Alavés midfield line-up give them natural width and delivery points; the job becomes getting Sevilla turned towards their own goal and keeping them there.
Now, the numbers back up why “Alavés with protection” is the cleaner betting structure than a straight home win. Start with defensive baseline. Across 16 league games, Alavés are conceding 1.06 goals per match. That figure is simply the average goals allowed each game, and it suggests they’re usually in games rather than being blown away regularly. It matters here because cup ties are often decided by whether the underdog can avoid the “two quick punches” spell that turns an even contest into a procession.
Sevilla’s defensive profile is riskier. They’re also 16 games in, and they’re conceding 1.50 goals per match, with 24 conceded in total. That’s not a moral judgement — it’s just a sign that Sevilla matches frequently involve defensive moments that are, at minimum, messy. It matters in this matchup because Alavés don’t need to create a dozen gilt-edged chances to score; they need a handful of repeatable situations: wide deliveries, second balls, and broken phases where Sevilla’s line loses spacing.
There’s a second layer too: match volatility. Sevilla’s games go Over 2.5 goals 69% of the time, and they land BTTS 63% of the time. Over 2.5 is simply “three or more total goals”, while BTTS means both teams score. Together, those numbers suggest Sevilla matches often refuse to stay quiet. That can be great for Sevilla when they’re the better side and turn a game into a shootout — but it’s not always great for controlling a cup tie away from home, because it opens the door to exactly the kind of scrappy, emotional contest Alavés want. If Sevilla are prone to chaos, Alavés’ best strategy is to keep the match within one goal and lean into the chaos late.
So why not just back Alavés outright? Because the other side of Sevilla’s profile is that they do carry threat: 24 goals scored and 1.50 goals per match is not a small output, and they’ve got goals spread across multiple names — Akor Adams, Isaac Romero Bernal, Ruben Vargas all have 3, while Djibril Sow and Alexis Sanchez have 2. That’s important because it reduces reliance on one single finisher: even if one player is quiet, Sevilla can still land a punch. A Draw No Bet angle respects that — it still leans into the home-side edge created by structure and game state, but it acknowledges that cup nights can settle into a stalemate even when one team shades the flow.
There’s also the home/away split to keep in mind. Alavés’ home league record is 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses from nine games, which is simply a decent platform for a one-off cup night. Sevilla’s away record is also 3 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses from eight, which is “capable, but not bulletproof”. Put those together and it’s easy to picture a match where Sevilla don’t dominate territory, Alavés stay organised, and the game lives on fine lines — exactly where Draw No Bet earns its keep.
What could go wrong?
Sevilla’s profile for goals and BTTS is a warning sign: if this match opens up, the away side have the scoring depth to exploit it, and Alavés’ 38% failed-to-score rate in the league shows they can have nights where the final action just isn’t there. If Sevilla score first and then manage the tempo with their deeper shape, Alavés may be forced into higher-risk attacking that exposes their back line to moments in transition. That’s the central risk: one early concession changes the script and pulls Alavés away from the controlled, “keep it tight” game they’d prefer.
Correct score lean
1–0 Alavés is the scoreline that best fits the evidence-led picture of a tight home tie. It’s Alavés’ most frequent full-time scoreline this season (five times, 31%), and it aligns with their lower 1.94 average match goals tendency.
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