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A proper Copa del Rey night under the lights at Riazor is rarely dull, and this one has the ingredients for a long, edgy evening. Deportivo La Coruña welcome Mallorca in the Round of 32 on Wednesday, 16 December 2025, with kick-off at 6:00 pm. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Cremonese have failed to score in five of their last six games, while Verona are the league's bottom side with significant finishing issues. Historical H2H data shows the last three meetings all went under this line.
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Cremonese have the home advantage and a superior goalkeeper in Audero. Verona’s weakness at set pieces provides the most likely avenue for a single decisive home goal.
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Deportivo La Coruña vs Mallorca Predictions and Best Bets
Deportivo La Coruña vs Mallorca — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample odds based on our match analysis.
Market pricing points towards Mallorca holding a narrow edge, with Deportivo La Coruña still very much in the conversation and the draw not far behind.
Deportivo’s most frequent league scorelines include 1–1 and a handful of multi-goal games; the set below is a simple snapshot with estimated odds for illustration.
The goal profile leans towards at least two match goals being common, with a meaningful chance of three or more and a mid-range read on both sides scoring.
Shot volume and stoppage patterns offer a quick read on whether the game could feel busy: shots on target rates and total free-kicks help frame the likely rhythm.
- Deportivo’s league platform is strong, but it isn’t always calm: they’re 2nd in La Liga 2 with 32 goals scored and 20 conceded in 18 matches, a profile that can create open cup game states.
- Goals are often part of the story when Deportivo play: their Segunda División matches average 2.89 total goals, and Over 2.5 has landed in 61% of their 18 league games, suggesting action is rarely far away.
- History leans Deportivo, which is exactly why qualification matters: across 14 meetings they’ve won eight, Mallorca have won three, with three draws — a reminder this can stay level deep into the night.
Match Tempo: Average Total Goals per Match
These averages give a quick feel for how “busy” games can become on the scoreboard, before you even get into the detail of game-states and momentum swings.
Across 18 league games they’ve scored 32 and conceded 20, which is consistent with matches that rarely stay quiet for long.
Their Copa del Rey matches average 2.80 goals overall, pointing towards a tie that can open up if the first goal lands early.
Defensive Stability: Clean Sheet Rates
Clean sheets are a blunt tool, but they’re useful: it’s the simplest way to show how often a side can shut the door completely.
That home clean-sheet rate hints at a team capable of controlling phases, even if recent scorelines show how quickly a cup night can flip.
Mallorca’s away cup clean sheets sit at 33%, which leaves space for Deportivo to create moments if they sustain pressure.
Attacking Reliability: How Often They Score
This is about consistency rather than style — how frequently each side finds at least one goal across their matches in this dataset.
Scoring in 90% of matches suggests they usually find a way onto the scoresheet, which matters in a cup tie where belief grows with every chance.
Mallorca have scored in 80% of matches, so even if the game tightens up, they’ve shown they can still produce a decisive action.
Can Deportivo’s Riazor energy overwhelm Mallorca’s top-flight nous in the Copa del Rey?
Deportivo arrive as the side flying highest in their league, sitting 2nd in La Liga 2 and pushing for direct promotion. Mallorca come from La Liga, currently 14th, and they’ll know exactly what a cup upset would do to the mood around the place. The recent scorelines add a bit of spice. Deportivo’s last home outing ended in a bruising 0–3 defeat to Real Sociedad II, and before that they were beaten 1–3 at home by CD Castellón. That’s two straight home losses with six conceded — not the sort of trend you want when a top-flight opponent rolls into town. Mallorca’s most recent match went far better: a 3–1 win over Elche that will travel nicely, even if cups have a habit of ignoring momentum when the first tackle flies in.
This tie also sits right in the middle of a busy week. Deportivo played on 14 December, just three days before this match, and rotation is expected. They also go in without Sergio Escudero and X. Navarro, both ruled out with muscle injuries, while Diego Villares is listed as questionable due to fatigue. That matters in a cup tie because the Copa often rewards familiarity: settled partnerships, clear responsibilities, and the small habits teams build over weeks. Rotation can still work — but it increases the chance of those messy, “how did that happen?” moments.
Mallorca’s approach is expected to be measured rather than all-out. Jagoba Arrasate is likely to mix starters with fringe players, and Vedat Muriqi is likely to be rested for the league. The obvious flip side is that Mallorca should still carry threat: Takefusa Asano is expected to start “to provide pace”, and Dominik Greif is expected to start in goal as the designated cup keeper. It reads like a plan built for control first, then damage when the game opens.
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As for the individuals who can tilt the balance: Deportivo have Yeremay Hernández, described as the X-factor winger — the sort who can turn one touch into a roar and one dribble into panic. Mallorca have Abdón Prats, a cult hero in this competition, already on the scoresheet in the previous round against Numancia and keen to force his way into more league minutes. In cups, narratives matter… but so does who turns up sharpest when the tie hits that “fine lines” phase.
Why we Publish Only One Tip
At BettingTips4You we publish one primary selection because it forces discipline. One pick means one clear view of the match, one set of reasons, and one outcome to own — no hiding behind a scattergun of angles. Football will always throw curveballs, especially in knockout ties, but a single, well-argued bet keeps the analysis honest and the decision-making accountable.
Best Bet for Deportivo La Coruña vs Mallorca
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Mallorca to qualify
Rationale
Start with what the team news is telling you, because in a cup tie it often shapes the whole story. Deportivo are expected to rotate after playing only three days earlier, and that’s before you factor in two confirmed absences (Escudero and Navarro, both muscle injuries) and the “questionable” tag on Villares due to fatigue. Even if the changes are sensible, it can blunt timing: players arriving a second late to a press, a back line stepping at different moments, or a midfield not quite sure whether to squeeze up or drop off. Those are the tiny gaps that a La Liga opponent doesn’t need to be invited into twice.
Mallorca’s own selection hints at a different kind of risk management. With Muriqi likely rested, they may lose a straightforward, reliable focal point — but the trade-off is Asano’s pace, and that is a very cup-friendly weapon. Pace matters because it changes how Deportivo can play. If you’re worried about what happens in behind, you often defend five yards deeper than you’d like, and that can stretch the distance between lines. Stretch the pitch and you create transition moments — the bits of the game where structure gives way to instinct. That’s where a team used to the week-to-week intensity of La Liga can find a route through, even without a full-strength XI.
The numbers align with a tie that can swing late rather than settle early. Deportivo’s matches in the Segunda División are averaging 2.89 total goals, and Over 2.5 has landed in 61% of their 18 league games — not because every match is chaotic, but because they do tend to produce action. They’ve scored 32 and conceded 20 in those 18 league fixtures, which tells you two things at once: there’s attacking punch, and there’s room for opponents. That room has been very visible recently at Riazor with the 0–3 and 1–3 home losses. Mallorca, meanwhile, arrive fresh from scoring three against Elche, and Prats’ Copa output — four goals in this season’s competition — underlines that they have a forward who treats these nights as a personal audition.
There’s also a historical wrinkle that stops this being a “simple” away call: across 14 previous meetings, Deportivo have won eight, Mallorca three, with three draws. That’s not something you ignore, and it’s one of the reasons the cleaner angle is qualification rather than a straight 90-minute result. Cup football is full of games that don’t resolve cleanly inside the initial 90, and the match preview itself leans into that possibility with a 1–2 Mallorca win after extra time. “To qualify” gives you cover for exactly that kind of game state — a tight tie that drifts, then breaks.
What could go wrong? Plenty. Deportivo’s league position (2nd) isn’t an accident, and Yeremay Hernández has been framed as the player who can embarrass top-flight defenders when he’s on song. If the rotated XI clicks quickly, the crowd can turn Riazor into a noisy problem for any visitor. And if Mallorca’s mixed approach dulls their cohesion — especially with a likely change in goal and a rotated outfield — you can end up with a match where they’re tidy but not ruthless, and cups punish that.
Correct score lean
A 1–1 after 90 minutes feels consistent with the way this tie is set up: Deportivo’s most common league scoreline is 1–1 (three times, 17%), and the broader read is that both sides have reasons to be cautious before the later punches land.
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