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The Australian Open heats up significantly this Thursday as we reach the semi-final stage. The women take centre stage at Melbourne Park, with World Number One Aryna Sabalenka looking to continue her dominant streak against a revitalised Elina Svitolina.
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While match-winner markets are tight given Sabalenka’s impressive form, there is significant value to be found in the player performance markets. Specifically, we are looking at the service statistics, where recent data highlights a clear path to value in the Ace counts for both players.
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Sabalenka averages over 3 aces per match in 2026, making the “Over 2” line look very secure. Svitolina has upped her aggression, averaging 0.25 aces per game. With a spot in the final on the line, we expect a deeper match, giving Svitolina ample time to hit 5+ aces.
Understanding the Aces Market
Before diving into the specific players, it is worth clarifying why this market is attractive. Betting on “Total Aces” requires analysing two factors: a player’s service potency and their opponent’s return positioning. In a semi-final environment, where nerves can lead to tighter service games and longer matches, the opportunity for players to rack up high ace counts increases significantly compared to early-round blowouts.
Aryna Sabalenka: The Power Game
Aryna Sabalenka has been nothing short of a force of nature in 2026. Her hard-hitting style is perfectly suited to the quick courts of Melbourne. The selection here requires her to hit Over 2 Aces, a bar that appears incredibly low given her statistical output.
- Matches Played: 7
- Total Aces: 21
- Average Aces per Match: 3.0
- Average Aces per Game: 0.22
Even in matches where she dominates quickly, she consistently finds the lines. She has hit 21 aces across 7 matches this year, averaging exactly 3 per match. Against Svitolina, who will force her to play more points than her previous opponents, Sabalenka will have ample opportunity to clear the 2-ace hurdle.
Elina Svitolina: Aggression Reborn
The more ambitious leg of this double is backing Elina Svitolina to hit Over 4 Aces. While Svitolina is traditionally known for her movement and defence, her 2026 campaign has been defined by a newfound aggression on serve. She has won 10 straight matches this year, losing only one set, and her service numbers reflect this confidence.
Svitolina has served 17 aces in her 5 matches in Melbourne. Crucially, her aces-per-game ratio is actually higher than Sabalenka’s in this tournament.
Mathematically, if this semi-final is even remotely competitive—lasting around 20 games (e.g., a 6-4, 6-4 scoreline)—Svitolina is statistically projected to hit 5 aces based on her current average of 0.25 per game. If the match goes to three sets, this selection becomes even stronger.
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The Head-to-Head Context
History suggests this will not be a walkover. While Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 5-1, Svitolina has often matched her in the serving department. In two of their previous six meetings, Svitolina actually served the most aces, and in the last two encounters, they tied on ace count.
With Svitolina’s current form—winning 85.8% of her service games—she will be holding serve frequently, extending the sets and giving herself more chances to find the ace. Sabalenka’s return game is aggressive, often standing well inside the baseline; while this puts pressure on servers, it also opens up the angles for Svitolina to slide aces out wide if Sabalenka guesses wrong.
Final Verdict
We are combining the consistency of Sabalenka (who rarely drops below 3 aces) with the high-value volume of Svitolina (who is serving at a career-best level). At 9/4, this double offers excellent value for a match that promises to be tighter than the match-winner odds suggest.
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