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Phoenix Open Outright Winner Prediction: Why Ben Griffin is Ready to Storm Scottsdale
The PGA Tour desert swing reaches its peak as the 2026 WM Phoenix Open returns to the iconic Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale. Known for its raucous “Coliseum” atmosphere at the 16th hole, this tournament demands a unique combination of elite ball-striking, desert-specific navigation, and the mental fortitude to handle the loudest gallery in world golf. While the odds favor heavyweights like Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele, our expert analysis identifies a statistically superior value play in Ben Griffin.
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Ben Griffin is a statistically primed contender for Scottsdale. Ranking 10th in driving accuracy and 7th in scrambling, he possesses the technical toolkit to navigate the desert rough. His consistent Phoenix record (36th and 28th) combined with elite par-4 scoring (14th) makes him a huge value play at 28/1.
TPC Scottsdale: A Tactical Breakdown
The Stadium Course is a 7,261-yard par-71 that requires surgical precision off the tee to avoid the sprawling desert waste areas. Unlike standard rough, the desert floor is unpredictable, often leading to restricted swings and forced layups. To win in Phoenix, a player must dominate the par 4s and possess a short game capable of neutralizing the firm, fast greens.
Statistical Dominance: The Griffin Blueprint
Ben Griffin’s game is currently optimized for this specific layout. He has emerged as one of the tour’s most reliable ball-strikers, particularly on the holes that define the Scottsdale experience.
With a driving accuracy rank of 10th (70.54% fairways hit), Griffin is elite at keeping the ball in play—a prerequisite for avoiding the high-variance desert terrain. His performance on par 4s is even more impressive; his 3.85 average ranks 14th on tour, which is vital on a course where the scoring is heavily weighted toward these holes. Furthermore, his 7th-place ranking in scrambling means he has the recovery skills to save par when he inevitably misses Scottsdale’s challenging greens.
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Contenders and Form Analysis
While Griffin leads our ticket, the field provides several fascinating storylines. Brooks Koepka arrives with significant momentum, having won here twice previously (2015, 2021). Despite a lukewarm finish at Torrey Pines, he ranked 3rd in Tee-to-Green, indicating his ball-striking is already tournament-ready. For Koepka, the “chaos” of the Phoenix atmosphere acts as a catalyst for high performance.
| Player | Form Factor | Scottsdale History |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Griffin | 14th Par 4 Scoring | 28th, 36th (Improving) |
| Brooks Koepka | 3rd Tee-to-Green | 2-Time Champion |
| Andrew Novak | 3rd Approach Rank | 8th (2024) |
| Haotong Li | 5th Approach (AmEx) | Debut (Strong Desert Form) |
Andrew Novak also demands respect this week at 70/1. He looked exceptionally comfortable on the greens recently and ranked 3rd for Approach stats. Novak’s 8th-place finish here in 2024 proves he can navigate the Scottsdale environment. Similarly, Haotong Li brings elite desert pedigree, having won the Qatar Masters and Dubai Desert Classic on the DP World Tour. His recent iron play—ranking 8th at Torrey Pines—suggests he is a sleeper to watch in his Phoenix debut.
Betting Markets: Outright vs. Each-Way
The “Outright Winner” market is straightforward: you are betting on who lifts the trophy. However, due to the large field sizes in professional golf, many bettors prefer “Each-Way” wagering. This splits your stake between the win and a “place” (often top 5 or top 10). Given Griffin’s 7th-place rank in scrambling, he has a high probability of hanging around the top of the leaderboard, making him an excellent each-way candidate at 28/1.
