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Can Michael van Gerwen continue his rampage against Arno Merk on Sunday?
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With the festive indulgences largely put to one side, the tournament has entered a critical phase. We are deep into the third round, where the format demands greater stamina and focus, with matches now contested over the best of seven sets. The stakes are rising visibly as the field narrows, and Sunday’s schedule on Sky Sports delivers a heavyweight lineup featuring four former world champions across two packed sessions.
Read on for the best bet for the PDC World Darts Championship and the analysis in addition to the best betting offers to take full advantage of.
Darts betting tips: PDC World Darts Championship Day 15 Best Bet for Sunday December 28
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Luke Littler enters this final as the standard-bearer for the sport. His unbeaten run at Alexandra Palace and his relentless 100+ averages make him the formidable favourite. While Van Veen’s run has been heroic, Littler’s proven ability to dominate this specific stage should see him successfully defend his title.
- Gian van Veen produced a stunning 108.28 average in round two.
- Gary Anderson crashed in a 105.41 average against Connor Scutt.
- Michael van Gerwen is operating at a 100.20 average coming into this tie.
MVG vs Arno Merk — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Michael van Gerwen is priced as the overwhelming favourite (1/14), with Arno Merk given a slim chance of causing an upset at 7/1.
A straightforward victory is expected, with a 4-0 whitewash being the most likely scoreline according to the odds.
Van Gerwen is 1/9 to hit the most 180s. The Total 180s line is set at 9.5, with the Over priced at 11/10.
Specials suggest a dominant display: MVG to hit a 180 in every set is 9/4, while he is 2/5 to win and hit the highest checkout.
The afternoon action, beginning at 12.30pm, promises high drama immediately. Ryan Searle, affectionately known as “Heavy Metal,” opens proceedings against Germany’s Martin Schindler. Searle has been imperious so far, yet to drop a set in his victories over Chris Landman and Brendan Dolan, while averaging well into the 90s. He faces “The Wall,” Schindler, who is bidding to reach the last 16 for the first time.
Scoring Power: Three-Dart Average (2025)
A direct comparison of scoring efficiency in 2025 highlights the gap in consistency between the three-time World Champion and his opponent.
MVG is back near his best, averaging over 100 in his opening match and maintaining a high standard throughout the year.
While Merk has battled through, his average significantly trails the elite standard required to challenge Van Gerwen over a long format.
Maximum Threat: 180s Per Leg
The ability to hit the treble 20 bed consistently is crucial for big checkouts and breaking throws.
Van Gerwen is hitting maximums at a rate that puts immense pressure on opponents, especially when he gets on a roll.
Merk’s lower maximum ratio suggests he will struggle to keep pace if the match turns into a heavy scoring contest.
Following them, 2018 champion Rob Cross takes on Damon Heta. Both men have questions to answer; Cross has averaged in the low 90s during his wins over Cor Dekker and Ian White, while Heta had to dig deep to overcome Stefan Bellmont. The afternoon concludes with a tantalising clash between two-time champion Gary Anderson and Jermaine Wattimena. The “Flying Scotsman” produced a vintage 105.41 average to crush Connor Scutt in round two, setting a high bar for “The Machine Gun” to match.
Attention turns to the evening session at 7pm, where the current kings of the sport take centre stage. Gian van Veen, fresh from a breathtaking performance against Alan Soutar where he averaged 108.28, faces the methodical Madars Razma. The spotlight then shifts to the defending champion, Luke Humphries.
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“Cool Hand” continues his defence of the Sid Waddell Trophy against Gabriel Clemens, the “German Giant” who dispatched Wessel Nijman in the previous round. Finally, the night closes with Michael van Gerwen. The three-time world champion, fresh from a 3-1 victory over William O’Connor, looks to continue his momentum against Arno Merk, the man responsible for eliminating Peter Wright earlier in the competition.
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Michael van Gerwen Over 6 180s & Michael van Gerwen Over 1 100+ Checkout at 9/4
Michael van Gerwen enters Sunday’s finale with a menacing air of confidence. His second-round performance against William O’Connor was a stark reminder of his capabilities when he finds his rhythm. While O’Connor failed to apply significant pressure, Van Gerwen did not wait for an invitation to score, posting a superb three-dart average of 100.20. That 3-1 victory showcased a player who is “fired up” and growing into the tournament at exactly the right moment. Historically, when Van Gerwen has the bit between his teeth, his scoring power increases exponentially, and he is currently operating with a 180s per leg ratio of 0.29 for 2025. This metric indicates he is peppering the treble 20 bed with the frequency required to land a high volume of maximums.
He faces Arno Merk, a player who has arguably already exceeded expectations by reaching the third round. Merk’s run includes a headline-grabbing victory over Peter Wright, but a closer inspection of that form reveals weaknesses. Wright was performing poorly, and while Merk took advantage, he was not forced to produce an elite level of darts. Facing Van Gerwen is an entirely different proposition. The Dutchman will likely dictate the pace from the first throw, and he will be hunting a statement performance to pave his way toward a potential semi-final clash with Luke Humphries.
The dynamic of this match supports the selection. Van Gerwen is known for his aggressive finishing, often opting for exhibition-style checkouts when he feels in command. With the match played over a best-of-seven format, there is ample time for Van Gerwen to accumulate the necessary maximums and big finishes, even if he wins comfortably. While some models predict a tighter game in terms of sets, the “Green Machine” tends to accelerate when in the lead rather than coast. He is looking to prove he is still the premier force in world darts, and dismantling a qualifier like Merk with heavy scoring and high checkouts is the standard method of operation for MVG in the early rounds at Ally Palace.
There is, of course, a risk that the match is too one-sided. If Van Gerwen obliterates Merk in straight sets without dropping legs, the sheer volume of darts thrown decreases, limiting the opportunities to hit seven 180s. Furthermore, if Merk struggles to replicate the form that saw him past Huybrechts and Wright, the match could lack the competitive tension that usually drives the highest scoring averages. However, Van Gerwen’s current intensity suggests he is focused on his own performance metrics rather than his opponent’s, making him a prime candidate to deliver on these targets regardless of Merk’s resistance.
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