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Can Mensur Suljovic’s slow play derail the Luke Littler express at Ally Pally?
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The World Darts Championship reaches the business end this Saturday as the third round concludes with a massive double session at Alexandra Palace. The festive break is truly over, and the race for the Sid Waddell Trophy is heating up with six matches scheduled across the day. While the afternoon sees some fascinating contests involving the likes of Wesley Plaisier and Jonny Clayton, all eyes will inevitably be drawn to the final match of the evening when teenage sensation Luke Littler takes to the stage.
Read on for the best bet for the PDC World Darts Championship and the analysis in addition to the best betting offers to take full advantage of.
Darts betting tips: PDC World Darts Championship Day 14 Best Bet for Saturday December 27
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Luke Littler enters this final as the standard-bearer for the sport. His unbeaten run at Alexandra Palace and his relentless 100+ averages make him the formidable favourite. While Van Veen’s run has been heroic, Littler’s proven ability to dominate this specific stage should see him successfully defend his title.
- Luke Littler Three-dart average (2025): 100.94
- Luke Littler 180s per leg (2025): 0.44
- Mensur Suljovic Three-dart average (2025): 91.62
Littler vs Suljovic — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key Darts markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds.
‘The Nuke’ is overwhelmingly favoured to outscore Suljovic on the maximums, with the odds reflecting a massive disparity in power scoring.
Pricing suggests a potential whitewash or a very comfortable victory for Littler, with 4-0 being the shortest price on the board.
Markets expect plenty of 180s (driven by Littler) and high checkouts, even if the set count remains low.
Specials markets are pricing in a high chance of magic, including a surprisingly short price for a 9-dart finish in the match.
Before we reach the headline act, the afternoon session offers plenty of intrigue. Wesley Plaisier, the giant Dutchman who stunned Gerwyn Price with a 3-0 drubbing, returns to face Krzysztof Ratajski. Plaisier’s performance against the Iceman was nothing short of superb, averaging a shade over 94 and pinning more than 56% of his doubles. Despite Ratajski being the higher-ranked seed, the Polish Eagle hasn’t looked quite as imperious, and Plaisier will fancy his chances on a stage that clearly doesn’t faze him.
Market Confidence: Implied Win Probability
The betting markets view this as a potential mismatch, with Luke Littler given an overwhelming chance of victory compared to Suljovic.
At odds of 1/50, Littler is priced as a near-certainty to progress, reflecting his explosive form and high scoring averages.
Priced at 12/1, Suljovic faces a massive task to upset the odds, relying on his unique rhythm to unsettle the teenager.
Scoring Power: The Battle for Maximums
The “Most 180s” market highlights the distinct gap in scoring power between Littler’s heavy artillery and Suljovic’s methodical cover shooting.
The market expects Littler to dominate the treble 20 bed, priced incredibly short to hit more maximums than his opponent.
Suljovic is known for switching to treble 19s more frequently, significantly reducing his expected 180 count compared to Littler.
Andrew Gilding also features in the early session against Luke Woodhouse. Gilding, affectionately known as Goldfinger, is enjoying a golden autumn of his career in his 50s. Having dispatched Chris Dobey with a 99 average, he looks incredibly dangerous. Woodhouse, however, is trending in the right direction himself, having dropped just one set across his first two matches.
Later in the evening, Stephen Bunting will look to back up his “People’s Champion” claims against James Hurrell. The Bullet survived a scare against Sebastian Bialecki in his opener but will need to be sharper against Hurrell, who produced a career-best display to eliminate Dirk van Duijvenbode. Hurrell fired in ten maximums in that match, suggesting this could be a heavy-scoring affair.
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We also see Andreas Harrysson, the Swedish factory worker with the Santa Claus beard, taking on the methodical Ricardo Pietreczko. Harrysson has endeared himself to the crowd, while Pietreczko’s awkward style has made him a pantomime villain for some, setting up a clash of contrasting atmospheres.
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Luke Littler v Mensur Suljovic – Luke Littler Over 1 180 In Set 1 at 1/1
The market focus for this match naturally drifts toward a comfortable Luke Littler victory, but the specific dynamics of set play offer an interesting angle on his maximum hitting immediately out of the gate. While much is made of Mensur Suljovic’s potential to disrupt an opponent’s rhythm with his deliberate, snail-like pace, the figures available suggest Littler is operating at a frequency that renders such tactics largely irrelevant.
Littler’s metrics for the 2025 season are staggering. He is currently operating with a three-dart average of 100.94, significantly higher than Suljovic’s 91.62. More importantly for this selection, the teenage star is registering 0.44 maximums per leg. To put that into perspective, he is hitting a 180 roughly every two legs. In a standard set, which is the best of five legs, the mathematical probability of him finding the treble 20 bed multiple times is high, provided he gets enough visits to the board.
There is a valid concern that Suljovic’s slow play might stifle Littler, similar to how Andrew Gilding pushed him hard at the World Matchplay. However, in that match, Gilding averaged nearly 100 to keep the pressure on. Suljovic, by contrast, averaged just 81.95 in his previous round struggle against Joe Cullen. If the Austrian produces a similar standard, he is unlikely to clear legs quickly, giving Littler ample attempts at the treble 20 even if the sets are short.
Furthermore, Littler has shown he can handle methodical players without losing his own explosive scoring power. He hasn’t dropped a set yet in this tournament, and his ability to start matches quickly is a key trait. He doesn’t need to “warm up” into a game; the power scoring is usually there from the first throw. With Suljovic offering a target that is significantly below the ‘A-game’ level required to suppress Littler’s scoring opportunities, the Nuke should have the freedom to attack the treble 20 bed aggressively from the very first leg.
What could go wrong? The primary risk here is the volume of legs played in the opening set. If Littler is too dominant and Suljovic struggles to score, we might see a very quick 3-0 set where Littler hits doubles on his first visit, limiting his own opportunities to score heavy. Conversely, if Suljovic’s extreme slowness genuinely unsettles the teenager early on, we could see snatched darts and stray trebles in the opening exchanges before Littler settles into his rhythm.
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